Baylor vs. BYU Prediction and Pick, Week 11 2026
66% chance to win
- BYU's defense should win on early downs. BYU is top-25 (24th) in SUPLEX allowed, and Baylor is bottom-40 (103rd) in SUPLEX.
- BYU's defense should hold up. BYU is top-25 (14th) in yards per play allowed, and Baylor is middle of the pack (80th) in yards per play.
Updated
Baylor at BYU
Projected score: Baylor 19, BYU 30 (total 48).SP+: BYU by 10.7, 78% chance to win.PRIME: BYU by 8.6.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 14, time TBA
- Where
- LaVell Edwards Stadium
- Line
- BYU −7.5, total 49.5
- Line movement
- Total opened 47.5, up 2.
- Series
- BYU leads 3–2
- Last meeting
- BYU 34–28 in 2024
- BYU injuries
- LJ Martin (RB), questionable; Evan Johnson (CB), doubtful
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | BYU by 10.7 | 78% | 48 |
| PRIME | BYU by 8.6 | 73% | |
| Elo | BYU | 58% | |
| The line | BYU −7.5 | 49.5, opened 47.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Mon, Nov 9, 7:09 AM ET.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Baylor or BYU?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
What do the sportsbooks say?
| Sportsbook | Baylor spread | BYU spread | Over | Under | Baylor moneyline | BYU moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +7.5 −108 (best price) | −7.5 −112 | 49.5 −105 | 49.5 −115 | +250 | −310 |
| FanDuel | +7.5 −114 | −7.5 −106 | 48.5 −114 | 48.5 −106 | +230 | −285 |
| BetMGM | +7.5 −108 (best price) | −7.5 −110 | 49.5 −105 | 49.5 −112 (best price) | +240 | −300 |
| Caesars | +7.5 −115 | −7.5 −106 | 49.5 −105 | 49.5 −115 | +245 | −310 |
| ESPN BET | +7.5 −110 | −7.5 −110 | 49.5 −105 | 49.5 −115 | +250 | −300 |
| BetRivers | +6.5 +104 | −6.5 −129 | 48.5 −112 | 48.5 −112 | +220 | −286 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +6.5 +105 | −6.5 −125 (best price) | 48.5 −110 (best price) | 48.5 −110 | +220 | −275 (best price) |
| Fanatics | +7.5 −110 | −7.5 −110 | 49 −110 | 49 −110 | +260 (best price) | −330 |
Odds updated Mon., Nov. 9, 7:09 AM ET. The best price on each bet is marked. Prices move fast, so check the book before you bet. Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Baylor vs. BYU?
All three ratings favor BYU, by 8.6 points. BYU's best matchup is their early-down defense, 24th in SUPLEX allowed, against Baylor's early-down offense at 103rd. Baylor's way back in is their takeaway defense, 51st in interceptions per pass, against BYU's ball security at 119th.
Baylor with the ball
BYU with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026; CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Recent form
How have Baylor and BYU played lately?
Baylor
3–2 in the last five. Won 2 straight.
- W 42–31 vs. Iowa State Week 10
- W 41–9 at UCF Week 9
- L 24–25 at Kansas Week 8
- L 6–17 vs. TCU Week 7
- W 55–19 at Arizona State Week 5
BYU
3–2 in the last five.
- L 20–28 at Utah Week 10
- W 27–20 vs. Arizona State Week 9
- L 31–39 at UCF Week 8
- W 28–24 vs. Notre Dame Week 7
- W 24–10 vs. Iowa State Week 6
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Baylor and BYU?
Baylor
- Jacob Redding (#8), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Jamarion Richardson (#38), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Devonte Tezino (DL), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Cayden Tone (#61), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Ashton Jones (#87), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 7)
BYU
- Evan Johnson (CB), doubtful (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 7). Left ankle sprain in the waning moments of the Oct. 24 loss to UCF; missed Arizona State. The Big 12 report lists him doubtful for Utah (initial, Nov. 7); Jayven Williams and Therrian Alexander III are the options (Deseret News, SI, Nov. 4). (as of Nov 5, 2026)
- LJ Martin (RB), questionable (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 7). Lower-body injury at TCU on Oct. 3; missed the Arizona State game (BYU ran for 47 yards on 29 carries without him). The Big 12 report moved him from doubtful to questionable for Utah (update 2, Nov. 7); Preston Rex is the backup (Deseret News, SI, Nov. 4). (as of Nov 7, 2026)
- Jonathan Kabeya (#2), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Roger Saleapaga II (#2), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Pierson Watson (#23), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Joseph Douglas (#37), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Seth Shigg (#39), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Vincent Tautua (#52), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Siosefa Brown (#59), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 7)
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Baylor and BYU compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Baylor and BYU are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
The players in charts
How Baylor's and BYU's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
RatingsBYU 9–0
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Baylor and BYU?
On a neutral field, SP+ has BYU 8.2 points better (13th to 43rd). PRIME also has BYU ahead, by 6.1. Elo, which only sees results, also has BYU ahead (35th to 36th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Where the data comes from: SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update), last pulled Nov 2, 2026; PRIME (primecfb.com), updated Nov 9, 2026; Elo from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Opponent-adjustedBYU 9–7
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Baylor's offense ranks 49th in adjusted EPA per play, and the BYU defense it faces ranks 34th in EPA per play allowed. BYU's offense ranks 32nd against Baylor's 21st-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge. The biggest edge on the board is BYU's big plays: 41st in adjusted explosiveness, against Baylor's 86th-ranked defense. Adjust for opponents and Baylor's offense climbs from 69th to 49th in EPA per play: it has done its work against good defenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
EPAEven 4–4
Who's more efficient, Baylor or BYU?
Baylor is better throwing (57th in EPA per pass) than running (100th). BYU's pass defense ranks 26th, so the defense has the better of it. BYU is better running (22nd in EPA per rush) than throwing (51st). Baylor's run defense ranks 20th, so that's strength on strength.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
ScoringBaylor 2–0
Who scores more, Baylor or BYU?
Baylor outscores FBS opponents by 14.9 a game, and BYU by 11.2. Baylor's offense ranks 45th in scoring, and the BYU defense it faces ranks 31st in points allowed. BYU's offense ranks 49th against Baylor's 18th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
OffenseBYU 10–2
Which offense has the edge?
Baylor has no clear edge here. Their best is 3rd down conversion rate, 79th, against a defense ranked 88th in 3rd down conversions allowed. BYU has no clear edge here. Their best is 3rd down conversion rate, 11th, against a defense ranked 33rd in 3rd down conversions allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
DefenseBYU 7–4
Which defense has the edge?
Baylor's defense is best placed to pick off passes: it ranks 51st in interception rate, and BYU's offense is bottom-20 at avoiding interceptions (119th). That's a mismatch. BYU's defense is best placed to win on early downs: it ranks 24th in SUPLEX allowed, and Baylor's offense is bottom-40 in SUPLEX (103rd). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
Up frontBaylor 8–4
Who wins up front?
Baylor has the better number in 8 of 12. The biggest gap is front-seven havoc allowed, where BYU ranks 3rd and Baylor 65th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TurnoversBaylor 6–1
Who wins the turnover battle?
Baylor is +0.6 in turnover margin a game and BYU is −0.1. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 3-point edge for Baylor. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it. Fumble recoveries are mostly luck, and Baylor's takeaways lean on them (0.8 of 1.8 a game).
Per game, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TalentBYU 7–4
Which team has more talent?
Baylor has the more talented roster (43rd in the 247Sports talent composite; BYU is 59th). But BYU plays further above their talent: +15.0 points of SP+ beyond what their roster predicts, to Baylor's +4.7.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Where the data comes from: 247Sports, preseason; 247Sports talent composite against SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026); CollegeFootballData.com returning production, preseason; 247Sports recruiting rankings, via CollegeFootballData.com.
MoneyBYU 3–0
Which roster costs more?
BYU's roster is valued at $22.1M, Baylor's at $19.8M. BYU also plays better per dollar: +9.4 points of SP+ above what their payroll predicts, to +3.5 for Baylor.
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
Where the data comes from: The NIL Standard, preseason estimates; The NIL Standard's preseason roster values against this season's results.
RECEIPTSBYU 3–2
Where did each team's wins come from?
Baylor is +1.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (+0.9). BYU is +2.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (+2.4).
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Where the data comes from: our split of every game result, games through Nov 7, 2026, using SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026), the 247Sports talent composite and CollegeFootballData.com returning production.
The trip
How far is Baylor traveling?
It's Baylor's 5th road trip of the season. Counting this one, they'll have traveled 8,262 miles, there and back, 26th of 138 in FBS.
The transitive property
The shortest chain of real results this season that “proves” each team wins.
Baylor wins
41–9Week 9
39–31Week 8
Baylor beat UCF 41–9 in Week 9. UCF beat BYU 39–31 in Week 8.BYU wins
17–10Week 5
17–6Week 7BYU beat TCU 17–10 in Week 5. TCU beat Baylor 17–6 in Week 7.Each arrow in a chain is a win, with the score and the week. At a neutral site, both teams travel.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com schedules and results, games through Nov 7, 2026. Miles as the crow flies, campus to stadium.
FAQ
Baylor at BYU: questions people ask
Baylor vs. BYU prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick BYU, 66% chance to win. SP+ and PRIME favor the same team. BYU's best matchup is their early-down defense, 24th in SUPLEX allowed, against Baylor's early-down offense at 103rd.
Where can I watch Baylor vs. BYU, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 14, time TBA at LaVell Edwards Stadium. The TV network hasn't been announced yet.
What's the projected score of Baylor vs. BYU?
SP+ projects BYU 30–19. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for Baylor at BYU?
DraftKings has BYU −7.5, total 49.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the Baylor vs. BYU series history?
BYU leads 3–2. Last meeting: BYU won 34–28 in 2024.
Who are the players to watch in Baylor vs. BYU?
Baylor: D.J. Lagway (1,900 passing yards), Caden Knighten (360 rushing yards) and Gavin Freeman (852 receiving yards). BYU: Bear Bachmeier (2,022 passing yards), LJ Martin (363 rushing yards) and Legend Glasker (703 receiving yards). Season totals through Nov 7, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Baylor at BYU?
Baylor's is D.J. Lagway (1,900 passing yards this season); BYU's is Bear Bachmeier (2,022 passing yards this season).
Who's out for Baylor at BYU?
BYU: LJ Martin (RB), questionable; Evan Johnson (CB), doubtful.
Keep going
- Baylor: every stat, rank and the schedule
- BYU: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Houston at Colorado: the numbers' pick
- Utah at Arizona: the numbers' pick
- Cincinnati at Iowa State: the numbers' pick
- Kansas at West Virginia: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 11 pick
- The Big 12: standings, stats and rankings
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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Numbers through the games of Nov 7, 2026. SP+ as of Nov 2, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Recent form
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.