Houston vs. Colorado Prediction and Pick, Week 11 2026
The numbers sayHouston77% chance to win
- Houston should throw it. Houston is top-10 (5th) in EPA per pass, and Colorado is bottom-40 (113th) in EPA per pass allowed.
Updated
Houston at Colorado
Projected score: Houston 36, Colorado 20 (total 56).SP+: Houston by 15.1, 86% chance to win.PRIME: Houston by 7.3.
- Kickoff
- Fri, Nov 13, 10:15 PM ET
- TV
- ESPN
- Where
- Folsom Field
- Weather
- 40°, wind 5 mph
- Line
- Houston −10.5, total 50.5
- Line movement
- Total opened 47.5, up 3.
- Series
- Tied 1–1
- Last meeting
- Houston 36–20 in 2025
- Colorado injuries
- Julian Lewis (QB), out
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Houston by 15.1 | 86% | 56 |
| PRIME | Houston by 7.3 | 70% | |
| Elo | Houston | 85% | |
| The line | Houston −10.5 | 50.5, opened 47.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Mon, Nov 9, 5:21 PM ET.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Houston or Colorado?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
What do the sportsbooks say?
| Sportsbook | Houston spread | Colorado spread | Over | Under | Houston moneyline | Colorado moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | −10.5 −108 | +10.5 −112 | 50.5 −118 (best price) | 50.5 −102 | −395 (best price) | +310 |
| FanDuel | −10.5 −110 | +10.5 −110 | 51.5 −105 | 51.5 −115 (best price) | −410 | +320 |
| BetMGM | −10.5 −108 | +10.5 −110 | 51.5 −105 | 51.5 −115 (best price) | −400 | +310 |
| Caesars | −10.5 −107 | +10.5 −113 | 51 −112 | 51 −112 | −400 | +305 |
| ESPN BET | −10.5 −115 | +10.5 −105 | 51.5 −105 | 51.5 −115 (best price) | −450 | +340 (best price) |
| BetRivers | −11 −112 | +11 −112 (best price) | 51.5 −104 | 51.5 −121 | −455 | +325 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −10.5 −115 | +10.5 −105 | 50.5 −120 | 50.5 +100 | −425 | +325 |
| Fanatics | −10.5 −105 (best price) | +10.5 −115 | 51 −110 | 51 −110 | −425 | +325 |
Odds updated Mon., Nov. 9, 5:21 PM ET. The best price on each bet is marked. Prices move fast, so check the book before you bet. Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Houston vs. Colorado?
All three ratings favor Houston, by 7.3 points. Houston's best matchup is their passing game, 5th in EPA per pass, against Colorado's pass defense at 113th. Colorado's way back in is their passing game, 76th in EPA per pass, against Houston's pass defense at 108th.
Houston with the ball
Colorado with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026; CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Recent form
How have Houston and Colorado played lately?
Houston
4–1 in the last five.
- W 31–24 vs. Cincinnati Week 10
- L 13–21 at Utah Week 8
- W 35–32 vs. Oklahoma State Week 7
- W 35–16 at Kansas State Week 6
- W 27–17 vs. UCF Week 5
Colorado
1–4 in the last five.
- L 10–20 at Arizona State Week 10
- W 27–24 vs. Kansas State Week 9
- L 24–57 at Oklahoma State Week 8
- L 24–27 vs. Utah Week 7
- L 7–29 vs. Texas Tech Week 5
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Houston and Colorado?
Houston
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Colorado
- Julian Lewis (QB), out. Undisclosed on the Big 12 report, which moved him from doubtful to out (update 1, Oct. 31). He lost the starting job to Isaac Wilson in Week 5, and reports split on whether this is an injury or a coach's decision. Deion Sanders: "That's on him" (SI, Yahoo Sports). He is not on the Big 12 report in update 2 (Oct. 31), which means available; status unconfirmed, so we keep "out" until a named source says otherwise. (as of Oct 31, 2026)
- Naeten Mitchell (DB), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Kaleb Mathis (#13), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Danny Scudero (#18), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Braylon Edwards (#26), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Micah Welch (RB), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Vili Taufatofua (#45), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Sam Gadie (#92), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Dylan Manuel (DL), last game: game time decision (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 7)
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Houston and Colorado compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Houston and Colorado are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
The players in charts
How Houston's and Colorado's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
RatingsHouston 8–2
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Houston and Colorado?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Houston 17.6 points better (22nd to 93rd). PRIME also has Houston ahead, by 9.8. Elo, which only sees results, also has Houston ahead (45th to 112th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Where the data comes from: SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update), last pulled Nov 2, 2026; PRIME (primecfb.com), updated Nov 9, 2026; Elo from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Opponent-adjustedHouston 9–7
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Houston's offense ranks 9th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Colorado defense it faces ranks 52nd in EPA per play allowed. Colorado's offense ranks 117th against Houston's 90th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Houston's offense against Colorado's defense. The biggest edge on the board is Houston's passing game: 5th in adjusted EPA per pass, against Colorado's 113th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
EPAHouston 5–3
Who's more efficient, Houston or Colorado?
Houston is better throwing (3rd in EPA per pass) than running (45th). Colorado's pass defense ranks 110th, so that's a mismatch. Colorado is better throwing (68th in EPA per pass) than running (131st). Houston's pass defense ranks 106th, so that's an edge. On third down, Houston has the edge: their offense ranks 1st in EPA per third-down play, and the defense they face ranks 72nd.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
ScoringHouston 2–0
Who scores more, Houston or Colorado?
Houston outscores FBS opponents by 14.1 a game, and Colorado is outscored by 8.5. Houston's offense ranks 22nd in scoring, and the Colorado defense it faces ranks 101st in points allowed. Colorado's offense ranks 123rd against Houston's 41st-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Houston's offense against Colorado's defense.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
OffenseHouston 12–0
Which offense has the edge?
Houston's best matchup is third downs: their offense ranks 1st in 3rd down conversion rate, and Colorado's defense ranks 72nd in 3rd down conversions allowed. That's a mismatch. Colorado has no clear edge here. Their best is SUPLEX, 102nd, against a defense ranked 124th in SUPLEX allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
DefenseColorado 9–2
Which defense has the edge?
Houston's defense is best placed to pick off passes: it ranks 48th in interception rate, and Colorado's offense is bottom-20 at avoiding interceptions (124th). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
Up frontHouston 7–5
Who wins up front?
Houston has the better number in 7 of 12. The biggest gap is big Uglies: offensive line, where Houston ranks 9th and Colorado 112th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TurnoversHouston 7–0
Who wins the turnover battle?
Houston is +0.8 in turnover margin a game and Colorado is −1.2. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 10-point edge for Houston. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.
Per game, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TalentHouston 8–3
Which team has more talent?
Colorado has the more talented roster (38th in the 247Sports talent composite; Houston is 57th). But Houston plays further above their talent: +11.2 points of SP+ beyond what their roster predicts, to Colorado's −8.6.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Where the data comes from: 247Sports, preseason; 247Sports talent composite against SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026); CollegeFootballData.com returning production, preseason; 247Sports recruiting rankings, via CollegeFootballData.com.
MoneyHouston 3–0
Which roster costs more?
Houston's roster is valued at $26.3M, Colorado's at $21.5M. Houston also plays better per dollar: +2.2 points of SP+ above what their payroll predicts, to −11.0 for Colorado.
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
Where the data comes from: The NIL Standard, preseason estimates; The NIL Standard's preseason roster values against this season's results.
RECEIPTSHouston 5–0
Where did each team's wins come from?
Houston is +2.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (+1.9). Colorado is −1.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (−1.5). Houston's record is running 1.1 wins ahead of their play on luck alone, so they're not as good as the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Where the data comes from: our split of every game result, games through Nov 7, 2026, using SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026), the 247Sports talent composite and CollegeFootballData.com returning production.
The trip
How far is Houston traveling?
It's Houston's 5th road trip of the season. Counting this one, they'll have traveled 8,108 miles, there and back, 27th of 138 in FBS.
The transitive property
The shortest chain of real results this season that “proves” each team wins.
Houston wins
35–32Week 7
57–24Week 8
Houston beat Oklahoma State 35–32 in Week 7. Oklahoma State beat Colorado 57–24 in Week 8.Colorado wins
27–24Week 9
35–24Week 7
25–24Week 8
42–31Week 10
45–42Week 5
45–42Week 7
37–24Week 8
28–26Week 3Colorado beat Kansas State 27–24 in Week 9. Kansas State beat Kansas 35–24 in Week 7. Kansas beat Baylor 25–24 in Week 8. Baylor beat Iowa State 42–31 in Week 10. Iowa State beat West Virginia 45–42 in Week 5. West Virginia beat Cincinnati 45–42 in Week 7. Cincinnati beat Texas Tech 37–24 in Week 8. Texas Tech beat Houston 28–26 in Week 3.Each arrow in a chain is a win, with the score and the week. At a neutral site, both teams travel.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com schedules and results, games through Nov 7, 2026. Miles as the crow flies, campus to stadium.
FAQ
Houston at Colorado: questions people ask
Houston vs. Colorado prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Houston, 77% chance to win. SP+ and PRIME favor the same team. Houston's best matchup is their passing game, 5th in EPA per pass, against Colorado's pass defense at 113th.
Where can I watch Houston vs. Colorado, and what time is it?
Fri, Nov 13, 10:15 PM ET at Folsom Field. It's on ESPN.
What's the projected score of Houston vs. Colorado?
SP+ projects Houston 36–20. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for Houston at Colorado?
DraftKings has Houston −10.5, total 50.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the Houston vs. Colorado series history?
It's tied 1–1. Last meeting: Houston won 36–20 in 2025.
Who are the players to watch in Houston vs. Colorado?
Houston: Conner Weigman (2,279 passing yards), Makhi Hughes (607 rushing yards) and Amare Thomas (698 receiving yards). Colorado: Isaac Wilson (1,412 passing yards), Jaquail Smith (396 rushing yards) and Joseph Williams (853 receiving yards). Season totals through Nov 7, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Houston at Colorado?
Houston's is Conner Weigman (2,279 passing yards this season); Colorado's is Isaac Wilson (1,412 passing yards this season).
Who's out for Houston at Colorado?
Colorado: Julian Lewis (QB), out.
Keep going
- Houston: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Colorado: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Cincinnati at Iowa State: the numbers' pick
- Kansas State at TCU: the numbers' pick
- Baylor at BYU: the numbers' pick
- Arizona State at UCF: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 11 pick
- The Big 12: standings, stats and rankings
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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Numbers through the games of Nov 7, 2026. SP+ as of Nov 2, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Recent form
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.