Louisiana vs. UL Monroe Prediction and Pick, Week 11 2026
The numbers sayLouisiana84% chance to win
- Louisiana's offensive line has the edge on UL Monroe's run-stopping front. Louisiana is above average (30th) in line yards per carry, and UL Monroe is bottom-20 (121st) in line yards allowed per carry.
- Louisiana's defense has the edge on UL Monroe's offense. Louisiana is above average (38th) in EPA per play allowed, and UL Monroe is bottom-20 (125th) in EPA per play.
Updated
Louisiana at UL Monroe
Projected score: Louisiana 38, UL Monroe 16 (total 54).SP+: Louisiana by 22.1, 94% chance to win.PRIME: Louisiana by 10.4.
- Rivalry
- Battle on the Bayou
- Kickoff
- Thu, Nov 12, 9:00 PM ET
- TV
- ESPN2
- Where
- Malone Stadium
- Line
- Louisiana −10.5, total 48.5
- Line movement
- Hasn't moved since it opened.
- Series
- Louisiana leads 25–16
- Last meeting
- Louisiana 30–27 in 2025
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Louisiana by 22.1 | 94% | 54 |
| PRIME | Louisiana by 10.4 | 77% | |
| Elo | Louisiana | 91% | |
| The line | Louisiana −10.5 | 48.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Mon, Nov 9, 7:09 AM ET.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Louisiana or UL Monroe?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
What do the sportsbooks say?
| Sportsbook | Louisiana spread | UL Monroe spread | Over | Under | Louisiana moneyline | UL Monroe moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | −10.5 −110 | +10.5 −110 | 48.5 −115 | 48.5 −105 | −440 | +340 |
| FanDuel | −10.5 −118 | +10.5 −104 | 49.5 −105 | 49.5 −115 (best price) | −430 (best price) | +330 |
| BetMGM | −11 −108 | +11 −110 | 48.5 −110 (best price) | 48.5 −108 | −450 | +340 |
| Caesars | −10.5 −109 (best price) | +10.5 −110 | 48.5 −114 | 48.5 −106 | −440 | +340 |
| ESPN BET | −10.5 −115 | +10.5 −105 | 49.5 −105 | 49.5 −115 (best price) | −450 | +340 |
| BetRivers | −12 −112 | +12 −112 (best price) | 48.5 −112 | 48.5 −112 | −500 | +350 (best price) |
| Hard Rock Bet | −11.5 −115 | +11.5 −105 | 48.5 −110 (best price) | 48.5 −110 | −500 | +350 (best price) |
| Fanatics | −10.5 −110 | +10.5 −110 | 49 −110 | 49 −110 | −450 | +340 |
Odds updated Mon., Nov. 9, 7:09 AM ET. The best price on each bet is marked. Prices move fast, so check the book before you bet. Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Louisiana vs. UL Monroe?
All three ratings favor Louisiana, by 10.4 points, and it isn't close. Louisiana's best matchup is their offensive line, 30th in line yards per carry, against UL Monroe's run-stopping front at 121st. UL Monroe's way back in is their pass protection, 80th in sacks allowed per dropback, against Louisiana's pass rush at 110th.
Louisiana with the ball
UL MonroeUL Monroe with the ball
UL MonroeEach row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026; CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Recent form
How have Louisiana and UL Monroe played lately?
Louisiana
3–2 in the last five.
- W 28–26 vs. South Alabama Week 10
- L 31–35 at Southern Miss Week 8
- W 33–6 vs. Troy Week 7
- L 31–32 at Louisiana Tech Week 6
- W 23–20 vs. Arkansas State Week 5
UL Monroe
2–3 in the last five.
- W 19–17 at Arkansas State Week 10
- L 21–35 vs. Southern Miss Week 9
- W 21–14 at Troy Week 8
- L 0–24 vs. Louisiana Tech Week 7
- L 35–52 at South Alabama Week 5
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Louisiana and UL Monroe?
Louisiana
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
UL Monroe
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Louisiana and UL Monroe compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Louisiana and UL Monroe are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
The players in charts
How Louisiana's and UL Monroe's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
RatingsLouisiana 9–1
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Louisiana and UL Monroe?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Louisiana 24.6 points better (68th to 133rd). PRIME also has Louisiana ahead, by 12.9. Elo, which only sees results, also has Louisiana ahead (67th to 134th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Where the data comes from: SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update), last pulled Nov 2, 2026; PRIME (primecfb.com), updated Nov 9, 2026; Elo from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Opponent-adjustedLouisiana 16–0
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Louisiana's offense ranks 75th in adjusted EPA per play, and the UL Monroe defense it faces ranks 123rd in EPA per play allowed. UL Monroe's offense ranks 125th against Louisiana's 38th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Louisiana's offense against UL Monroe's defense. The biggest edge on the board is Louisiana's offensive line in the run game: 30th in adjusted line yards per carry, against UL Monroe's 121st-ranked defense. That's a mismatch.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
EPALouisiana 7–1
Who's more efficient, Louisiana or UL Monroe?
Louisiana is better running (17th in EPA per rush) than throwing (114th). UL Monroe's run defense ranks 120th, so that's a mismatch. UL Monroe is better running (98th in EPA per rush) than throwing (127th). Louisiana's run defense ranks 26th, so the defense has the better of it.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
ScoringLouisiana 2–0
Who scores more, Louisiana or UL Monroe?
Louisiana outscores FBS opponents by 8.1 a game, and UL Monroe is outscored by 14.7. Louisiana's offense ranks 56th in scoring, and the UL Monroe defense it faces ranks 132nd in points allowed. UL Monroe's offense ranks 120th against Louisiana's 45th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Louisiana's offense against UL Monroe's defense.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
OffenseLouisiana 9–3
Which offense has the edge?
Louisiana's best matchup is third downs: their offense ranks 37th in 3rd down conversion rate, and UL Monroe's defense ranks 119th in 3rd down conversions allowed. That's a mismatch. UL Monroe has no clear edge here. Their best is SUPLEX, 75th, against a defense ranked 96th in SUPLEX allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
DefenseLouisiana 10–1
Which defense has the edge?
Louisiana's defense is best placed to get off the field on third down: it ranks 66th in 3rd down conversions allowed, and UL Monroe's offense is bottom-40 in 3rd down conversion rate (112th). UL Monroe's defense is best placed to pick off passes: it ranks 84th in interception rate, and Louisiana's offense is bottom-40 at avoiding interceptions (109th).
What opponents managed against them.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
Up frontLouisiana 12–0
Who wins up front?
Louisiana has the better number in 12 of 12. The biggest gap is power success (short yardage), where Louisiana ranks 2nd and UL Monroe 103rd.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TurnoversLouisiana 6–0
Who wins the turnover battle?
Louisiana is +0.4 in turnover margin a game and UL Monroe is −0.6. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 5-point edge for Louisiana. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it. Fumble recoveries are mostly luck, and Louisiana's takeaways lean on them (1.0 of 1.8 a game).
Per game, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TalentLouisiana 10–0
Which team has more talent?
Louisiana has the more talented roster (99th in the 247Sports talent composite; UL Monroe is 132nd). Louisiana also plays further above their talent: +4.9 points of SP+ beyond what their roster predicts, to UL Monroe's −14.3.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Where the data comes from: 247Sports, preseason; 247Sports talent composite against SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026); CollegeFootballData.com returning production, preseason; 247Sports recruiting rankings, via CollegeFootballData.com.
RECEIPTSLouisiana 4–1
Where did each team's wins come from?
Louisiana is +1.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+2.2). UL Monroe is −2.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (−2.6).
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Where the data comes from: our split of every game result, games through Nov 7, 2026, using SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026), the 247Sports talent composite and CollegeFootballData.com returning production.
The trip
How far is Louisiana traveling?
It's Louisiana's 5th road trip of the season. Counting this one, they'll have traveled 5,601 miles, there and back, 65th of 138 in FBS.
The transitive property
The shortest chain of real results this season that “proves” each team wins.
Louisiana wins
28–26Week 10
52–35Week 5Louisiana beat South Alabama 28–26 in Week 10. South Alabama beat UL Monroe 52–35 in Week 5.UL Monroe wins
21–14Week 8
55–34Week 6
35–31Week 8UL Monroe beat Troy 21–14 in Week 8. Troy beat Southern Miss 55–34 in Week 6. Southern Miss beat Louisiana 35–31 in Week 8.Each arrow in a chain is a win, with the score and the week. At a neutral site, both teams travel.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com schedules and results, games through Nov 7, 2026. Miles as the crow flies, campus to stadium.
FAQ
Louisiana at UL Monroe: questions people ask
Louisiana vs. UL Monroe prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Louisiana, 84% chance to win. SP+ and PRIME favor the same team. Louisiana's best matchup is their offensive line, 30th in line yards per carry, against UL Monroe's run-stopping front at 121st.
Where can I watch Louisiana vs. UL Monroe, and what time is it?
Thu, Nov 12, 9:00 PM ET at Malone Stadium. It's on ESPN2.
What's the projected score of Louisiana vs. UL Monroe?
SP+ projects Louisiana 38–16. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for Louisiana at UL Monroe?
DraftKings has Louisiana −10.5, total 48.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the Louisiana vs. UL Monroe series history?
Louisiana leads 25–16. Last meeting: Louisiana won 30–27 in 2025.
Who are the players to watch in Louisiana vs. UL Monroe?
Louisiana: D'Wayne' Winfield (1,604 passing yards), JJ Garner (440 rushing yards) and Kedarius Wade (300 receiving yards). UL Monroe: Aidan Armenta (1,406 passing yards), Bryson Roland (200 rushing yards) and Marcellus Jackson (370 receiving yards). Season totals through Nov 7, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Louisiana at UL Monroe?
Louisiana's is D'Wayne' Winfield (1,604 passing yards this season); UL Monroe's is Aidan Armenta (1,406 passing yards this season).
Keep going
- Louisiana: every stat, rank and the schedule
- UL Monroe: every stat, rank and the schedule
- James Madison at UConn: the numbers' pick
- Arkansas State at Coastal Carolina: the numbers' pick
- Georgia Southern at Georgia State: the numbers' pick
- Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 11 pick
- The Sun Belt: standings, stats and rankings
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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Numbers through the games of Nov 7, 2026. SP+ as of Nov 2, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Recent form
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.