Kansas vs. West Virginia Prediction and Pick, Week 11 2026
The numbers sayKansas56% chance to win
- Kansas should hit big plays. Kansas is top-25 (11th) in explosive play rate, and West Virginia is bottom-20 (134th) in explosive plays allowed.
- Kansas' offense has the edge on West Virginia's defense. Kansas is above average (50th) in yards per play, and West Virginia is bottom-20 (137th) in yards per play allowed.
Updated
Kansas at West Virginia
Projected score: Kansas 34, West Virginia 33 (total 67).SP+: a coin flip.PRIME: West Virginia by 2.4, the other side.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 14, 5:30 PM ET
- TV
- ESPNU
- Where
- Milan Puskar Stadium
- Weather
- 39°, wind 11 mph
- Line
- West Virginia −3, total 67.5
- Line movement
- Opened West Virginia −2.5; moved 0.5 points toward West Virginia. Total opened 64.5, up 3.
- Series
- West Virginia leads 11–3
- Last meeting
- Kansas 41–10 in 2025
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Kansas by 0.3 | 51% | 67 |
| PRIME | West Virginia by 2.4 | 57% | |
| Elo | Kansas | 69% | |
| The line | West Virginia −3, opened −2.5 | 67.5, opened 64.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Mon, Nov 9, 5:21 PM ET.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Kansas or West Virginia?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
What do the sportsbooks say?
| Sportsbook | Kansas spread | West Virginia spread | Over | Under | Kansas moneyline | West Virginia moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +3 −115 (best price) | −3 −105 | 67.5 −108 | 67.5 −112 | +120 | −142 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 −105 | −2.5 −115 (best price) | 67.5 −110 | 67.5 −110 | +112 | −134 (best price) |
| BetMGM | +2.5 −102 | −2.5 −115 (best price) | 67.5 −110 | 67.5 −108 (best price) | +115 | −140 |
| Caesars | +3 −115 (best price) | −3 −104 | 67.5 −110 | 67.5 −109 | +123 | −145 |
| ESPN BET | +2.5 +100 | −2.5 −120 | 67.5 −110 | 67.5 −110 | +125 (best price) | −145 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 −108 | −2.5 −115 (best price) | 66.5 −110 (best price) | 66.5 −113 | +118 | −148 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 −105 | −2.5 −115 (best price) | 66.5 −110 (best price) | 66.5 −110 | +120 | −145 |
| Fanatics | +3 −115 (best price) | −3 −105 | 67.5 −110 | 67.5 −110 | +120 | −145 |
Odds updated Mon., Nov. 9, 5:21 PM ET. The best price on each bet is marked. Prices move fast, so check the book before you bet. Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Kansas vs. West Virginia?
Elo take Kansas, but PRIME has West Virginia by 2.4. Kansas' best matchup is their big-play offense, 11th in explosive play rate, against West Virginia's big-play defense at 134th. West Virginia's way back in is their ball security, 19th in interceptions thrown per pass, against Kansas' takeaway defense at 120th.
Kansas with the ball
KansasKansasKansasKansasKansasKansasKansasWest Virginia with the ball
KansasKansasEach row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026; CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Recent form
How have Kansas and West Virginia played lately?
Kansas
1–4 in the last five. Lost 2 straight.
- L 32–33 vs. UCF Week 10
- L 16–22 at TCU Week 9
- W 25–24 vs. Baylor Week 8
- L 24–35 at Kansas State Week 7
- L 24–41 at Utah Week 6
West Virginia
2–3 in the last five.
- L 48–53 at Texas Tech Week 10
- W 24–20 at TCU Week 8
- W 45–42 vs. Cincinnati Week 7
- L 31–52 vs. Arizona Week 6
- L 42–45 at Iowa State Week 5
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Kansas and West Virginia?
Kansas
- Jalen Dupree (RB), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Bryson Hayes (#12), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Tyren Parker (#17), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Jack Utz (#35), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Kasen Carpenter (#51), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Grady Seyfert (#71), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Griffin Baker (#80), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Bam Crouch (#7), last game: game time decision (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Josh Galbreath (#8), last game: game time decision (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Jaden Harris (#12), last game: game time decision (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Cole Ballard (QB), last game: game time decision (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 7)
West Virginia
- Jyron Hughley (#8), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Jacob Bradford (#12), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Emory Snyder (#23), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Andre Devine (#26), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Lawrence Autry (#28), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Darius Wiley (#91), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 7)
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Kansas and West Virginia compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Kansas and West Virginia are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
The players in charts
How Kansas' and West Virginia's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
RatingsKansas 7–3
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Kansas and West Virginia?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Kansas 2.8 points better (60th to 70th). PRIME also has Kansas ahead, by 0.1. Elo, which only sees results, also has Kansas ahead (52nd to 92nd).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Where the data comes from: SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update), last pulled Nov 2, 2026; PRIME (primecfb.com), updated Nov 9, 2026; Elo from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Opponent-adjustedKansas 10–6
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Kansas' offense ranks 61st in adjusted EPA per play, and the West Virginia defense it faces ranks 134th in EPA per play allowed. West Virginia's offense ranks 36th against Kansas' 56th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Kansas' offense against West Virginia's defense. The biggest edge on the board is West Virginia's big plays: 23rd in adjusted explosiveness, against Kansas' 109th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and Kansas' offense climbs from 85th to 61st in EPA per play: it has done its work against good defenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
EPAEven 4–4
Who's more efficient, Kansas or West Virginia?
Kansas is better running (62nd in EPA per rush) than throwing (106th). West Virginia's run defense ranks 72nd. West Virginia is about as good throwing (30th in EPA per pass) as running (39th). On third down, West Virginia has the edge: their offense ranks 22nd in EPA per third-down play, and the defense they face ranks 54th.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
ScoringEven 1–1
Who scores more, Kansas or West Virginia?
Kansas outscores FBS opponents by 4.6 a game, and West Virginia by 2.6. Kansas' offense ranks 58th in scoring, and the West Virginia defense it faces ranks 131st in points allowed. West Virginia's offense ranks 17th against Kansas' 70th-ranked defense. Both offenses have the edge on the defenses they face.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
OffenseWest Virginia 9–3
Which offense has the edge?
Kansas' best matchup is big plays: their offense ranks 11th in explosive play rate, and West Virginia's defense ranks 134th in explosive plays allowed. That's a mismatch. West Virginia's best matchup is big plays: their offense ranks 16th in explosive play rate, and Kansas' defense ranks 92nd in explosive plays allowed. That's a mismatch.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
DefenseKansas 9–2
Which defense has the edge?
Kansas' defense is best placed to keep offenses behind schedule: it ranks 29th in success rate allowed, and West Virginia's offense is middle of the pack in success rate (58th).
What opponents managed against them.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
Up frontKansas 9–3
Who wins up front?
Kansas has the better number in 9 of 12. The biggest gap is open-field yards per carry, where West Virginia ranks 33rd and Kansas 111th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TurnoversWest Virginia 5–1
Who wins the turnover battle?
West Virginia is +0.2 in turnover margin a game and Kansas is −0.6. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 4-point edge for West Virginia. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it. Fumble recoveries are mostly luck, and Kansas' takeaways lean on them (0.8 of 1.1 a game).
Per game, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TalentWest Virginia 6–4
Which team has more talent?
West Virginia has the more talented roster (49th in the 247Sports talent composite; Kansas is 62nd). But Kansas plays further above their talent: +1.4 points of SP+ beyond what their roster predicts, to West Virginia's −2.8.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Where the data comes from: 247Sports, preseason; 247Sports talent composite against SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026); CollegeFootballData.com returning production, preseason; 247Sports recruiting rankings, via CollegeFootballData.com.
MoneyKansas 2–1
Which roster costs more?
West Virginia's roster is valued at $20.3M, Kansas' at $20.2M. Dollar for dollar, Kansas plays better: −2.6 points of SP+ above what their payroll predicts, to −5.6 for West Virginia.
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
Where the data comes from: The NIL Standard, preseason estimates; The NIL Standard's preseason roster values against this season's results.
RECEIPTSWest Virginia 3–2
Where did each team's wins come from?
Kansas is −1.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is luck (−1.3). West Virginia is +0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is luck (+1.3). West Virginia's record is running 1.3 wins ahead of their play on luck alone, so they're not as good as the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Where the data comes from: our split of every game result, games through Nov 7, 2026, using SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026), the 247Sports talent composite and CollegeFootballData.com returning production.
The trip
How far is Kansas traveling?
It's Kansas' 5th road trip of the season. Counting this one, they'll have traveled 13,191 miles, there and back, 6th of 138 in FBS.
The transitive property
The shortest chain of real results this season that “proves” each team wins.
Kansas wins
25–24Week 8
42–31Week 10
45–42Week 5
Kansas beat Baylor 25–24 in Week 8. Baylor beat Iowa State 42–31 in Week 10. Iowa State beat West Virginia 45–42 in Week 5.West Virginia wins
24–20Week 8
22–16Week 9West Virginia beat TCU 24–20 in Week 8. TCU beat Kansas 22–16 in Week 9.Each arrow in a chain is a win, with the score and the week. At a neutral site, both teams travel.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com schedules and results, games through Nov 7, 2026. Miles as the crow flies, campus to stadium.
FAQ
Kansas at West Virginia: questions people ask
Kansas vs. West Virginia prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Kansas, 56% chance to win. Elo has Kansas; PRIME has West Virginia. Kansas' best matchup is their big-play offense, 11th in explosive play rate, against West Virginia's big-play defense at 134th.
Where can I watch Kansas vs. West Virginia, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 14, 5:30 PM ET at Milan Puskar Stadium. It's on ESPNU.
What's the projected score of Kansas vs. West Virginia?
SP+ projects Kansas 34–33. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for Kansas at West Virginia?
DraftKings has West Virginia −3, total 67.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the Kansas vs. West Virginia series history?
West Virginia leads 11–3. Last meeting: Kansas won 41–10 in 2025.
Who are the players to watch in Kansas vs. West Virginia?
Kansas: Isaiah Marshall (1,716 passing yards), Dylan Edwards (596 rushing yards) and Nik McMillan (497 receiving yards). West Virginia: Michael Hawkins Jr. (1,901 passing yards), Cam Cook (1,072 rushing yards) and DJ Epps (564 receiving yards). Season totals through Nov 7, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Kansas at West Virginia?
Kansas' is Isaiah Marshall (1,716 passing yards this season); West Virginia's is Michael Hawkins Jr. (1,901 passing yards this season).
Keep going
- Kansas: every stat, rank and the schedule
- West Virginia: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Houston at Colorado: the numbers' pick
- Cincinnati at Iowa State: the numbers' pick
- Kansas State at TCU: the numbers' pick
- Baylor at BYU: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 11 pick
- The Big 12: standings, stats and rankings
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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Numbers through the games of Nov 7, 2026. SP+ as of Nov 2, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Recent form
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.