Utah vs. Arizona Prediction and Pick, Week 11 2026
The numbers sayUtah64% chance to win
- Utah should stay on the field on 3rd down. Utah is top-10 (3rd) in 3rd down conversion, and Arizona is middle of the pack (77th) in 3rd downs allowed.
- Utah's run defense has the edge on Arizona's run game. Utah is above average (43rd) in yards per carry allowed, and Arizona is bottom-40 (96th) in yards per carry.
Updated
Utah at Arizona
Projected score: Utah 28, Arizona 28 (total 56).SP+: a coin flip.PRIME: Utah by 6.8, the other side.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 14, 7:30 PM ET
- TV
- Fox
- Where
- Arizona Stadium
- Weather
- 69°, rain, wind 6 mph
- Line
- Utah −2.5, total 54.5
- Line movement
- Opened Utah −1.5; moved 1 point toward Utah. Total opened 51.5, up 3.
- Series
- Utah leads 26–21–2
- Last meeting
- Arizona 23–10 in 2024
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Arizona by 0.5 | 51% | 56 |
| PRIME | Utah by 6.8 | 69% | |
| Elo | Utah | 60% | |
| The line | Utah −2.5, opened −1.5 | 54.5, opened 51.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Mon, Nov 9, 5:21 PM ET.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Utah or Arizona?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
What do the sportsbooks say?
| Sportsbook | Utah spread | Arizona spread | Over | Under | Utah moneyline | Arizona moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | −2.5 −118 | +2.5 −102 | 54.5 −115 | 54.5 −105 | −142 | +120 |
| FanDuel | −2.5 −115 | +2.5 −105 | 54.5 −110 | 54.5 −110 | −137 (best price) | +114 |
| BetMGM | −3 −105 | +3 −115 | 54.5 −110 | 54.5 −108 | −140 | +115 |
| Caesars | −2.5 −117 | +2.5 −104 | 55 −109 | 55 −110 | −137 (best price) | +116 |
| ESPN BET | −3.5 +100 | +3.5 −120 (best price) | 55.5 −105 | 55.5 −115 (best price) | −150 | +130 (best price) |
| BetRivers | −2.5 −115 | +2.5 −108 | 54.5 −108 | 54.5 −115 | −143 | +117 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −2.5 −110 (best price) | +2.5 −105 | 54.5 −105 (best price) | 54.5 −110 | −145 | +115 |
| Fanatics | −3 −105 | +3 −115 | 54.5 −115 | 54.5 −105 | −145 | +120 |
Odds updated Mon., Nov. 9, 5:21 PM ET. The best price on each bet is marked. Prices move fast, so check the book before you bet. Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Utah vs. Arizona?
All three ratings favor Utah, by 6.8 points. Utah's best matchup is their 3rd down offense, 3rd in 3rd down conversion, against Arizona's 3rd down defense at 77th. Arizona's way back in is their 3rd down offense, 12th in 3rd down conversion, against Utah's 3rd down defense at 53rd.
Utah with the ball
ArizonaArizona with the ball
ArizonaEach row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026; CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Recent form
How have Utah and Arizona played lately?
Utah
5–0 in the last five. Won 5 straight.
- W 28–20 vs. BYU Week 10
- W 49–25 at Cincinnati Week 9
- W 21–13 vs. Houston Week 8
- W 27–24 at Colorado Week 7
- W 41–24 vs. Kansas Week 6
Arizona
4–1 in the last five.
- W 29–28 vs. TCU Week 10
- L 26–34 at Texas Tech Week 9
- W 39–3 vs. Iowa State Week 8
- W 52–31 at West Virginia Week 6
- W 34–7 vs. Cincinnati Week 5
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Utah and Arizona?
Utah
- Isaiah Garcia (#72), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 7)
Arizona
- Max Harris (#5), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 6)
- Jay'Vion Cole (#8), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 6)
- Shane King (#8), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 6)
- Cam Chapa (S), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 6)
- Ismail Mahdi (#21), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 6)
- Kevin Moorer Jr. (DL), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 6)
- Ezra Funa (#92), last game: out (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 6)
- Grayson Stovall (#78), last game: game time decision (Big 12 availability report, game day, Nov 6)
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Utah and Arizona compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Utah and Arizona are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
The players in charts
How Utah's and Arizona's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
RatingsUtah 10–0
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Utah and Arizona?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Utah 2.0 points better (10th to 14th). PRIME also has Utah ahead, by 9.3. Elo, which only sees results, also has Utah ahead (9th to 21st).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Where the data comes from: SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update), last pulled Nov 2, 2026; PRIME (primecfb.com), updated Nov 9, 2026; Elo from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Opponent-adjustedUtah 11–5
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Utah's offense ranks 28th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Arizona defense it faces ranks 27th in EPA per play allowed. Arizona's offense ranks 20th against Utah's 13th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge. The biggest edge on the board is Utah's big plays: 12th in adjusted explosiveness, against Arizona's 123rd-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and Utah's offense falls from 8th to 28th in EPA per play: a lot of that came against soft defenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
EPAEven 4–4
Who's more efficient, Utah or Arizona?
Utah is better running (4th in EPA per rush) than throwing (23rd). Arizona's run defense ranks 48th, so that's an edge. Arizona is better throwing (18th in EPA per pass) than running (62nd). Utah's pass defense ranks 18th, so that's strength on strength. On third down, Arizona has the edge: their offense ranks 30th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense they face ranks 115th.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
ScoringUtah 2–0
Who scores more, Utah or Arizona?
Utah outscores FBS opponents by 21.4 a game, and Arizona by 14.3. Utah's offense ranks 13th in scoring, and the Arizona defense it faces ranks 33rd in points allowed. Arizona's offense ranks 27th against Utah's 15th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
OffenseUtah 8–4
Which offense has the edge?
Utah's best matchup is third downs: their offense ranks 3rd in 3rd down conversion rate, and Arizona's defense ranks 77th in 3rd down conversions allowed. That's a mismatch. Arizona's best matchup is third downs: their offense ranks 12th in 3rd down conversion rate, and Utah's defense ranks 53rd in 3rd down conversions allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
DefenseUtah 7–4
Which defense has the edge?
Utah's defense is best placed to stop the run: it ranks 43rd in yards per carry allowed, and Arizona's offense is middle of the pack in yards per carry (96th).
What opponents managed against them.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
Up frontArizona 7–5
Who wins up front?
Arizona has the better number in 7 of 12. The biggest gap is open-field yards per carry, where Utah ranks 7th and Arizona 101st.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TurnoversEven 3–3
Who wins the turnover battle?
Utah is +0.6 in turnover margin a game and Arizona is 0.0. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 3-point edge for Utah. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.
Per game, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TalentUtah 6–5
Which team has more talent?
Arizona has the more talented roster (54th in the 247Sports talent composite; Utah is 58th). But Utah plays further above their talent: +15.9 points of SP+ beyond what their roster predicts, to Arizona's +13.7.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Where the data comes from: 247Sports, preseason; 247Sports talent composite against SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026); CollegeFootballData.com returning production, preseason; 247Sports recruiting rankings, via CollegeFootballData.com.
MoneyArizona 2–1
Which roster costs more?
Utah's roster is valued at $22.1M, Arizona's at $19.9M. Dollar for dollar, Arizona plays better: +10.9 points of SP+ above what their payroll predicts, to +10.6 for Utah.
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
Where the data comes from: The NIL Standard, preseason estimates; The NIL Standard's preseason roster values against this season's results.
RECEIPTSUtah 4–1
Where did each team's wins come from?
Utah is +4.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (+2.5). Arizona is +2.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (+1.9). Utah's record is running 1.4 wins ahead of their play on luck alone, so they're not as good as the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Where the data comes from: our split of every game result, games through Nov 7, 2026, using SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026), the 247Sports talent composite and CollegeFootballData.com returning production.
The trip
How far is Utah traveling?
It's Utah's 4th road trip of the season. Counting this one, they'll have traveled 6,669 miles, there and back, 45th of 138 in FBS.
The transitive property
The shortest chain of real results this season that “proves” each team wins.
Utah wins
28–20Week 10
28–17Week 2Utah beat BYU 28–20 in Week 10. BYU beat Arizona 28–17 in Week 2.Arizona wins
Can't be done. Utah hasn't lost.Each arrow in a chain is a win, with the score and the week. At a neutral site, both teams travel.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com schedules and results, games through Nov 7, 2026. Miles as the crow flies, campus to stadium.
FAQ
Utah at Arizona: questions people ask
Utah vs. Arizona prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Utah, 64% chance to win. SP+ and PRIME favor the same team. Utah's best matchup is their 3rd down offense, 3rd in 3rd down conversion, against Arizona's 3rd down defense at 77th.
Where can I watch Utah vs. Arizona, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 14, 7:30 PM ET at Arizona Stadium. It's on Fox.
What's the projected score of Utah vs. Arizona?
SP+ projects Arizona 28–28. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for Utah at Arizona?
DraftKings has Utah −2.5, total 54.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the Utah vs. Arizona series history?
Utah leads 26–21–2. Last meeting: Arizona won 23–10 in 2024.
Who are the players to watch in Utah vs. Arizona?
Utah: Devon Dampier (2,053 passing yards), Wayshawn Parker (762 rushing yards) and Braden Pegan (591 receiving yards). Arizona: Noah Fifita (2,777 passing yards), Kedrick Reescano (373 rushing yards) and Isaiah Mizell (753 receiving yards). Season totals through Nov 7, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Utah at Arizona?
Utah's is Devon Dampier (2,053 passing yards this season); Arizona's is Noah Fifita (2,777 passing yards this season).
Keep going
- Utah: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Arizona: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Houston at Colorado: the numbers' pick
- Cincinnati at Iowa State: the numbers' pick
- Kansas State at TCU: the numbers' pick
- Baylor at BYU: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 11 pick
- The Big 12: standings, stats and rankings
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
Daily collegefootball chartsin your inbox.
The best charts from the site, by email. Free. Unsubscribe whenever.
Numbers through the games of Nov 7, 2026. SP+ as of Nov 2, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Recent form
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.