Boston College vs. Notre Dame Prediction, Week 11 2026
The numbers sayNotre Dame98% chance to win
- Notre Dame's defense should hold up. Notre Dame is top-25 (19th) in EPA per play allowed, and Boston College is bottom-20 (122nd) in EPA per play.
- Notre Dame's offense should move it. Notre Dame is top-10 (9th) in points per game, and Boston College is bottom-40 (91st) in points allowed.
Updated
Boston College at Notre Dame
Projected score: Boston College 11, Notre Dame 40 (total 52).SP+: Notre Dame by 29.2, 98% chance to win.PRIME: Notre Dame by 25.4.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 14, 3:30 PM ET
- TV
- NBC
- Where
- Notre Dame Stadium
- Line
- Notre Dame −29.5, total 52.5
- Line movement
- Opened Notre Dame −31.5; moved 2 points toward Boston College.
- Series
- Notre Dame leads 19–9
- Last meeting
- Notre Dame 25–10 in 2025
- Notre Dame injuries
- DJ McKinney (CB), out
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Notre Dame by 29.2 | 98% | 52 |
| PRIME | Notre Dame by 25.4 | 97% | |
| Elo | Notre Dame | 99% | |
| The line | Notre Dame −29.5, opened −31.5 | 52.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Mon, Nov 9, 7:09 AM ET.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Boston College or Notre Dame?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
What do the sportsbooks say?
| Sportsbook | Boston College spread | Notre Dame spread | Over | Under | Boston College moneyline | Notre Dame moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +29.5 −108 | −29.5 −112 | 52.5 −108 (best price) | 52.5 −112 | +1800 | −5000 (best price) |
| FanDuel | +30.5 −110 (best price) | −30.5 −110 | 52.5 −110 | 52.5 −110 (best price) | +2200 | −8000 |
| BetMGM | +29.5 −110 | −29.5 −110 (best price) | 52.5 −108 (best price) | 52.5 −110 (best price) | +2500 | −10000 |
| Caesars | +29.5 −105 | −29.5 −115 | 52.5 −109 | 52.5 −112 | +1800 | −10000 |
| ESPN BET | +29.5 −110 | −29.5 −110 (best price) | 52.5 −110 | 52.5 −110 (best price) | +3000 (best price) | −20000 |
| BetRivers | +30.5 −112 | −30.5 −112 | 52.5 −112 | 52.5 −112 | Not posted | Not posted |
| Hard Rock Bet | +30.5 −110 (best price) | −30.5 −110 | 52.5 −110 | 52.5 −110 (best price) | Not posted | Not posted |
| Fanatics | +29.5 −110 | −29.5 −110 (best price) | 52.5 −110 | 52.5 −110 (best price) | +2500 | −7000 |
Odds updated Mon., Nov. 9, 7:09 AM ET. The best price on each bet is marked. Prices move fast, so check the book before you bet. Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Boston College vs. Notre Dame?
All three ratings favor Notre Dame, by 25.4 points, and it isn't close. Notre Dame's best matchup is their defense, 19th in EPA per play allowed, against Boston College's offense at 122nd. Boston College's way back in is their big-play defense, 26th in explosive plays allowed, against Notre Dame's big-play offense at 63rd. We left out the edges built on McKinney, who's out.
Boston College with the ball
Notre Dame with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026; CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Recent form
How have Boston College and Notre Dame played lately?
Boston College
2–3 in the last five. Lost 2 straight.
- L 24–31 vs. Florida State Week 10
- L 2–47 at Duke Week 9
- W 49–27 at Georgia Tech Week 8
- W 27–21 vs. Pittsburgh Week 7
- L 16–25 at SMU Week 5
Notre Dame
4–1 in the last five. Won 2 straight.
- W 31–24 vs. Miami Week 10
- W 35–13 vs. Navy Week 9
- L 24–28 at BYU Week 7
- W 58–7 vs. Stanford Week 6
- W 37–26 at North Carolina Week 5
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Boston College and Notre Dame?
Boston College
- Onye Nwosisi (DL), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Isaiah Farris (#16), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Justin Medlock (#20), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Evan Dickens (RB), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Sedric Addison (#26), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Amir Johnson (#51), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Trevon Humphrey (#53), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Michael Crounse (#77), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Reed Swanson (#80), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Nov 7)
Notre Dame
- McKinney (CB), out. Right ankle, hurt Oct. 17 at BYU. Jayden Sanders starts in his place. (as of Oct 26, 2026)
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Boston College and Notre Dame compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Boston College and Notre Dame are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
The players in charts
How Boston College's and Notre Dame's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
RatingsNotre Dame 10–0
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Boston College and Notre Dame?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Notre Dame 26.7 points better (3rd to 78th). PRIME also has Notre Dame ahead, by 22.9. Elo, which only sees results, also has Notre Dame ahead (2nd to 97th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Where the data comes from: SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update), last pulled Nov 2, 2026; PRIME (primecfb.com), updated Nov 9, 2026; Elo from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Opponent-adjustedNotre Dame 16–0
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Boston College's offense ranks 122nd in adjusted EPA per play, and the Notre Dame defense it faces ranks 19th in EPA per play allowed. Notre Dame's offense ranks 2nd against Boston College's 45th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Notre Dame's offense against Boston College's defense. The biggest edge on the board is Notre Dame's run game: 7th in adjusted EPA per rush, against Boston College's 81st-ranked defense. That's a mismatch.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
EPANotre Dame 7–1
Who's more efficient, Boston College or Notre Dame?
Boston College is better running (77th in EPA per rush) than throwing (103rd). Notre Dame's run defense ranks 10th, so the defense has the better of it. Notre Dame is about as good throwing (9th in EPA per pass) as running (9th).
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
ScoringNotre Dame 2–0
Who scores more, Boston College or Notre Dame?
Boston College is outscored by 5.1 a game, and Notre Dame by 24.7. Boston College's offense ranks 109th in scoring, and the Notre Dame defense it faces ranks 9th in points allowed. Notre Dame's offense ranks 9th against Boston College's 91st-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Notre Dame's offense against Boston College's defense.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
OffenseNotre Dame 9–3
Which offense has the edge?
Boston College has no clear edge here. Their best is 3rd down conversion rate, 93rd, against a defense ranked 75th in 3rd down conversions allowed. Notre Dame's best matchup is early downs: their offense ranks 15th in SUPLEX, and Boston College's defense ranks 77th in SUPLEX allowed. That's a mismatch.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
DefenseNotre Dame 9–2
Which defense has the edge?
Boston College's defense is best placed to limit big plays: it ranks 26th in explosive plays allowed, and Notre Dame's offense is middle of the pack in explosive play rate (63rd). Notre Dame's defense is best placed to pick off passes: it ranks 19th in interception rate, and Boston College's offense is bottom-20 at avoiding interceptions (123rd). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
Up frontNotre Dame 10–2
Who wins up front?
Notre Dame has the better number in 10 of 12. The biggest gap is front-seven havoc allowed, where Notre Dame ranks 1st and Boston College 129th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TurnoversNotre Dame 6–1
Who wins the turnover battle?
Notre Dame is +1.8 in turnover margin a game and Boston College is +0.1. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 8-point edge for Notre Dame. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it. Fumble recoveries are mostly luck, and Notre Dame's takeaways lean on them (1.0 of 2.0 a game).
Per game, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TalentNotre Dame 11–0
Which team has more talent?
Notre Dame has the more talented roster (6th in the 247Sports talent composite; Boston College is 71st). Notre Dame also plays further above their talent: +7.0 points of SP+ beyond what their roster predicts, to Boston College's −1.3.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Where the data comes from: 247Sports, preseason; 247Sports talent composite against SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026); CollegeFootballData.com returning production, preseason; 247Sports recruiting rankings, via CollegeFootballData.com.
MoneyNotre Dame 2–1
Which roster costs more?
Notre Dame's roster is valued at $36.7M, Boston College's at $17.6M. Notre Dame also plays better per dollar: +6.8 points of SP+ above what their payroll predicts, to −3.9 for Boston College.
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
Where the data comes from: The NIL Standard, preseason estimates; The NIL Standard's preseason roster values against this season's results.
RECEIPTSNotre Dame 4–1
Where did each team's wins come from?
Boston College is −0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (−0.5). Notre Dame is +3.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is roster (+2.2).
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Where the data comes from: our split of every game result, games through Nov 7, 2026, using SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026), the 247Sports talent composite and CollegeFootballData.com returning production.
The trip
How far is Boston College traveling?
It's Boston College's 5th road trip of the season. Counting this one, they'll have traveled 9,160 miles, there and back, 21st of 138 in FBS.
The transitive property
The shortest chain of real results this season that “proves” each team wins.
Boston College wins
27–21Week 7
12–7Week 2
39–31Week 8
28–24Week 7
Boston College beat Pittsburgh 27–21 in Week 7. Pittsburgh beat UCF 12–7 in Week 2. UCF beat BYU 39–31 in Week 8. BYU beat Notre Dame 28–24 in Week 7.Notre Dame wins
37–26Week 5
24–20Week 7
47–2Week 9Notre Dame beat North Carolina 37–26 in Week 5. North Carolina beat Duke 24–20 in Week 7. Duke beat Boston College 47–2 in Week 9.Each arrow in a chain is a win, with the score and the week. At a neutral site, both teams travel.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com schedules and results, games through Nov 7, 2026. Miles as the crow flies, campus to stadium.
FAQ
Boston College at Notre Dame: questions people ask
Boston College vs. Notre Dame prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Notre Dame, 98% chance to win. SP+ and PRIME favor the same team. Notre Dame's best matchup is their defense, 19th in EPA per play allowed, against Boston College's offense at 122nd.
Where can I watch Boston College vs. Notre Dame, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 14, 3:30 PM ET at Notre Dame Stadium. It's on NBC.
What's the projected score of Boston College vs. Notre Dame?
SP+ projects Notre Dame 40–11. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for Boston College at Notre Dame?
DraftKings has Notre Dame −29.5, total 52.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the Boston College vs. Notre Dame series history?
Notre Dame leads 19–9. Last meeting: Notre Dame won 25–10 in 2025.
Who are the players to watch in Boston College vs. Notre Dame?
Boston College: Mason McKenzie (1,616 passing yards), Bo MacCormack III (373 rushing yards) and Javarius Green (322 receiving yards). Notre Dame: C.J. Carr (2,168 passing yards), Nolan James Jr. (571 rushing yards) and Jordan Faison (574 receiving yards). Season totals through Nov 7, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Boston College at Notre Dame?
Boston College's is Mason McKenzie (1,616 passing yards this season); Notre Dame's is C.J. Carr (2,168 passing yards this season).
Who's out for Boston College at Notre Dame?
Notre Dame: McKinney (CB), out.
Keep going
- Boston College: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Notre Dame: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Florida State at Pittsburgh: the numbers' pick
- Louisville at North Carolina: the numbers' pick
- Stanford at Virginia Tech: the numbers' pick
- Wake Forest at SMU: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 11 pick
- The ACC: standings, stats and rankings
- The FBS independents: standings, stats and rankings
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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Numbers through the games of Nov 7, 2026. SP+ as of Nov 2, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Recent form
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.