Florida State vs. Pittsburgh Prediction and Pick, Week 11 2026
The numbers sayPittsburgh58% chance to win
- Pittsburgh's offensive line has the edge on Florida State's run-stopping front. Pittsburgh is above average (33rd) in line yards per carry, and Florida State is bottom-40 (102nd) in line yards allowed per carry.
Updated
Florida State at Pittsburgh
Projected score: Florida State 28, Pittsburgh 33 (total 61).SP+: Pittsburgh by 4.6, 63% chance to win.PRIME: Pittsburgh by 0.5.
- Kickoff
- Fri, Nov 13, 7:00 PM ET
- TV
- ESPN
- Where
- Acrisure Stadium
- Line
- Pittsburgh −3.5, total 53.5
- Line movement
- Opened Pittsburgh −3; moved 0.5 points toward Pittsburgh.
- Series
- Pittsburgh leads 7–5
- Last meeting
- Pittsburgh 34–31 in 2025
- Florida State injuries
- Ousmane Kromah (RB), out for season
- Pittsburgh injuries
- Mason Heintschel (QB), out for season
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Pittsburgh by 4.6 | 63% | 61 |
| PRIME | Pittsburgh by 0.5 | 51% | |
| Elo | Pittsburgh | 64% | |
| The line | Pittsburgh −3.5, opened −3 | 53.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Mon, Nov 9, 7:09 AM ET.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Florida State or Pittsburgh?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
What do the sportsbooks say?
| Sportsbook | Florida State spread | Pittsburgh spread | Over | Under | Florida State moneyline | Pittsburgh moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +3.5 −112 | −3.5 −108 | 53.5 −115 | 53.5 −105 | +142 | −170 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 −110 | −3.5 −110 | 54.5 +100 | 54.5 −122 | +136 | −162 (best price) |
| BetMGM | +3.5 −108 | −3.5 −110 | 53.5 −110 (best price) | 53.5 −108 | +138 | −165 |
| Caesars | +3.5 −109 | −3.5 −110 | 54 −112 | 54 −112 | +146 | −173 |
| ESPN BET | +3.5 −110 | −3.5 −110 | 54.5 −105 | 54.5 −115 (best price) | +140 | −165 |
| BetRivers | +3.5 −107 | −3.5 −117 | 53.5 −117 | 53.5 −107 | +148 | −186 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 −105 (best price) | −3.5 −115 | 53.5 −115 | 53.5 −105 | +150 (best price) | −185 |
| Fanatics | +3.5 −115 | −3.5 −105 (best price) | 54 −110 | 54 −110 | +140 | −170 |
Odds updated Mon., Nov. 9, 7:09 AM ET. The best price on each bet is marked. Prices move fast, so check the book before you bet. Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Florida State vs. Pittsburgh?
All three ratings favor Pittsburgh, by 0.5 points. Pittsburgh's best matchup is their takeaway defense, 35th in interceptions per pass, against Florida State's ball security at 136th. Florida State's way back in is their passing game, 43rd in EPA per pass, against Pittsburgh's pass defense at 71st. We left out the edges built on Kromah and Heintschel, who are out.
Florida State with the ball
PittsburghPittsburghPittsburghPittsburgh
Florida StateFlorida StatePittsburgh with the ball
PittsburghPittsburghPittsburghPittsburghPittsburghPittsburghPittsburghEach row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026; CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Recent form
How have Florida State and Pittsburgh played lately?
Florida State
2–3 in the last five.
- W 31–24 at Boston College Week 10
- L 24–36 vs. Clemson Week 9
- L 35–43 at Miami Week 7
- L 20–44 at Louisville Week 6
- W 38–7 vs. Virginia Week 5
Pittsburgh
2–3 in the last five.
- W 34–11 vs. Georgia Tech Week 9
- L 23–52 at Miami Week 8
- L 21–27 at Boston College Week 7
- L 17–21 vs. North Carolina Week 6
- W 35–33 at Virginia Tech Week 5
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Florida State and Pittsburgh?
Florida State
- Kromah (RB), out for season (ACC availability report, game day, Nov 7). Left ankle or lower leg, hurt on a second-quarter carry in the Oct. 17 double-overtime loss at Miami; season-ending surgery, full recovery expected (AP, Oct. 18). He led the team with 114 carries for 609 yards. Tre Wisner is the lead back. The ACC report lists him out; we keep "out for season" because of the school's statement. (as of Oct 29, 2026)
- Quindarrius Jones (DB), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Duce Robinson (WR), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Samuel Singleton Jr. (#3), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Deante McCray (DL), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Karson Hobbs (#16), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Jamari Howard (#18), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Blake Nichelson (#20), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Izayia Williams (#30), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Daylen Green (#38), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Noah LaVallee (#45), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Kevin Wynn (DL), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Conor McAneney (#93), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- K.J. Kirkland (#24), last game: game time decision (ACC availability report, game day, Nov 7)
Pittsburgh
- Heintschel (QB), out for season (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31). Torn ACL, hurt Oct. 2 at Virginia Tech (CBS Sports). He led the country with 14 touchdown passes. Holden Geriner starts. The ACC report lists him out for this week; we keep "out for season" because of the ACL tear. (as of Oct 29, 2026)
- Eliyt Nairne (#16), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Elijah Lagg (#17), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Max Hunt (#18), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Cameron Lindsey (LB), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Tyreek Robinson (#24), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Allen Bryant (#26), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Ben Kauffman (#36), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Isaac Patterson (#41), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Rodney Dunbar (#81), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Trevor Sommers (#90), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Ja'Kyrian Turner (RB), last game: game time decision (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Florida State and Pittsburgh compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Florida State and Pittsburgh are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
The players in charts
How Florida State's and Pittsburgh's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
RatingsPittsburgh 6–4
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Florida State and Pittsburgh?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Pittsburgh 2.1 points better (44th to 53rd). PRIME has Florida State by 2.0 instead. The two ratings split on Pittsburgh's offense: 46th in SP+, 88th in PRIME. Elo, which only sees results, also has Pittsburgh ahead (44th to 51st).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Where the data comes from: SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update), last pulled Nov 2, 2026; PRIME (primecfb.com), updated Nov 9, 2026; Elo from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Opponent-adjustedFlorida State 9–7
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Florida State's offense ranks 26th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Pittsburgh defense it faces ranks 28th in EPA per play allowed. Pittsburgh's offense ranks 88th against Florida State's 99th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge. The biggest edge on the board is Pittsburgh's offensive line in the run game: 33rd in adjusted line yards per carry, against Florida State's 102nd-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and Pittsburgh's offense falls from 67th to 88th in EPA per play: a lot of that came against soft defenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
EPAEven 4–4
Who's more efficient, Florida State or Pittsburgh?
Florida State is better running (22nd in EPA per rush) than throwing (41st). Pittsburgh's run defense ranks 6th, so that's strength on strength. Pittsburgh is about as good throwing (65th in EPA per pass) as running (62nd). On third down, Pittsburgh has the edge: their offense ranks 60th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense they face ranks 134th.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
ScoringPittsburgh 2–0
Who scores more, Florida State or Pittsburgh?
Florida State outscores FBS opponents by 2.4 a game, and Pittsburgh by 12.1. Florida State's offense ranks 51st in scoring, and the Pittsburgh defense it faces ranks 31st in points allowed. Pittsburgh's offense ranks 45th against Florida State's 101st-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Pittsburgh's offense against Florida State's defense.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
OffenseFlorida State 7–5
Which offense has the edge?
Florida State's best matchup is big plays: their offense ranks 20th in explosive play rate, and Pittsburgh's defense ranks 45th in explosive plays allowed. Pittsburgh's best matchup is third downs: their offense ranks 60th in 3rd down conversion rate, and Florida State's defense ranks 107th in 3rd down conversions allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
DefensePittsburgh 8–3
Which defense has the edge?
Pittsburgh's defense is best placed to pick off passes: it ranks 35th in interception rate, and Florida State's offense is bottom-20 at avoiding interceptions (136th). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
Up frontPittsburgh 9–3
Who wins up front?
Pittsburgh has the better number in 9 of 12. The biggest gap is line yards allowed per carry, where Pittsburgh ranks 4th and Florida State 122nd.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TurnoversPittsburgh 6–1
Who wins the turnover battle?
Pittsburgh is +0.2 in turnover margin a game and Florida State is −1.0. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 6-point edge for Pittsburgh. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.
Per game, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TalentFlorida State 8–3
Which team has more talent?
Florida State has the more talented roster (21st in the 247Sports talent composite; Pittsburgh is 64th). But Pittsburgh plays further above their talent: +7.1 points of SP+ beyond what their roster predicts, to Florida State's −2.8.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Where the data comes from: 247Sports, preseason; 247Sports talent composite against SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026); CollegeFootballData.com returning production, preseason; 247Sports recruiting rankings, via CollegeFootballData.com.
MoneyPittsburgh 3–0
Which roster costs more?
Florida State's roster is valued at $24.0M, Pittsburgh's at $22.1M. Dollar for dollar, Pittsburgh plays better: +0.5 points of SP+ above what their payroll predicts, to −3.4 for Florida State.
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
Where the data comes from: The NIL Standard, preseason estimates; The NIL Standard's preseason roster values against this season's results.
RECEIPTSPittsburgh 4–1
Where did each team's wins come from?
Florida State is −0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is roster (+1.0). Pittsburgh is +1.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (+1.2).
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Where the data comes from: our split of every game result, games through Nov 7, 2026, using SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026), the 247Sports talent composite and CollegeFootballData.com returning production.
The trip
How far is Florida State traveling?
It's Florida State's 5th road trip of the season. Counting this one, they'll have traveled 6,077 miles, there and back, 59th of 138 in FBS.
The transitive property
The shortest chain of real results this season that “proves” each team wins.
Florida State wins
31–24Week 10
27–21Week 7Florida State beat Boston College 31–24 in Week 10. Boston College beat Pittsburgh 27–21 in Week 7.Pittsburgh wins
27–13Week 3
30–27Week 9
27–24Week 1Pittsburgh beat Syracuse 27–13 in Week 3. Syracuse beat SMU 30–27 in Week 9. SMU beat Florida State 27–24 in Week 1.Each arrow in a chain is a win, with the score and the week. At a neutral site, both teams travel.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com schedules and results, games through Nov 7, 2026. Miles as the crow flies, campus to stadium.
FAQ
Florida State at Pittsburgh: questions people ask
Florida State vs. Pittsburgh prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Pittsburgh, 58% chance to win. SP+ and PRIME favor the same team. Pittsburgh's best matchup is their takeaway defense, 35th in interceptions per pass, against Florida State's ball security at 136th.
Where can I watch Florida State vs. Pittsburgh, and what time is it?
Fri, Nov 13, 7:00 PM ET at Acrisure Stadium. It's on ESPN.
What's the projected score of Florida State vs. Pittsburgh?
SP+ projects Pittsburgh 33–28. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for Florida State at Pittsburgh?
DraftKings has Pittsburgh −3.5, total 53.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the Florida State vs. Pittsburgh series history?
Pittsburgh leads 7–5. Last meeting: Pittsburgh won 34–31 in 2025.
Who are the players to watch in Florida State vs. Pittsburgh?
Florida State: Ashton Daniels (2,146 passing yards), Kromah (609 rushing yards) and Micahi Danzy (487 receiving yards). Pittsburgh: Heintschel (1,304 passing yards), Damon Ferguson Jr. (662 rushing yards) and Cataurus Hicks (698 receiving yards). Season totals through Nov 7, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Florida State at Pittsburgh?
Florida State's is Ashton Daniels (2,146 passing yards this season); Pittsburgh's is Heintschel (1,304 passing yards this season).
Who's out for Florida State at Pittsburgh?
Florida State: Kromah (RB), out for season. Pittsburgh: Heintschel (QB), out for season.
Keep going
- Florida State: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Pittsburgh: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Louisville at North Carolina: the numbers' pick
- Stanford at Virginia Tech: the numbers' pick
- Wake Forest at SMU: the numbers' pick
- Duke at Miami: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 11 pick
- The ACC: standings, stats and rankings
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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Numbers through the games of Nov 7, 2026. SP+ as of Nov 2, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Recent form
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.