Wake Forest vs. SMU Prediction and Pick, Week 11 2026
The numbers sayWake Forest66% chance to win
- Wake Forest should run it. Wake Forest is top-10 (5th) in EPA per rush, and SMU is bottom-40 (102nd) in EPA per rush allowed.
Updated
Wake Forest at SMU
Projected score: Wake Forest 27, SMU 30 (total 57).SP+: SMU by 3.7, 60% chance to win.PRIME: Wake Forest by 10.9, the other side.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 14, 12:00 PM ET
- Where
- Gerald J. Ford Stadium
- Line
- Wake Forest −1.5, total 61.5
- Line movement
- Opened Wake Forest −3.5; moved 2 points toward SMU. Total opened 55.5, up 6.
- Series
- SMU leads 3–1
- Last meeting
- Wake Forest 13–12 in 2025
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | SMU by 3.7 | 60% | 57 |
| PRIME | Wake Forest by 10.9 | 78% | |
| Elo | Wake Forest | 53% | |
| The line | Wake Forest −1.5, opened −3.5 | 61.5, opened 55.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Mon, Nov 9, 7:09 AM ET.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Wake Forest or SMU?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
What do the sportsbooks say?
| Sportsbook | Wake Forest spread | SMU spread | Over | Under | Wake Forest moneyline | SMU moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | −1.5 −108 (best price) | +1.5 −112 | 61.5 −105 | 61.5 −115 | −120 (best price) | +100 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 −115 | +1.5 −105 | 61.5 −110 | 61.5 −110 (best price) | −122 | +104 |
| BetMGM | −1.5 −110 | +1.5 −108 | 61.5 −105 | 61.5 −112 | −120 (best price) | +100 |
| Caesars | −1.5 −109 | +1.5 −110 | 61.5 −109 | 61.5 −110 (best price) | −121 | +102 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 −110 | +1.5 −110 | 61.5 −105 | 61.5 −115 | −120 (best price) | +100 |
| BetRivers | −2.5 −112 | +2.5 −112 | 61.5 −110 | 61.5 −113 | −132 | +107 (best price) |
| Hard Rock Bet | −2.5 −110 | +2.5 −110 (best price) | 61.5 −110 | 61.5 −110 (best price) | −130 | +105 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 −110 | +1.5 −110 | 61 −110 (best price) | 61 −110 | −120 (best price) | +100 |
Odds updated Mon., Nov. 9, 7:09 AM ET. The best price on each bet is marked. Prices move fast, so check the book before you bet. Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Wake Forest vs. SMU?
All three ratings favor Wake Forest, by 10.9 points. Wake Forest's best matchup is their ball security, 3rd in interceptions thrown per pass, against SMU's takeaway defense at 126th. SMU's way back in is their ball security, 51st in interceptions thrown per pass, against Wake Forest's takeaway defense at 110th.
Wake Forest with the ball
SMU with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026; CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Recent form
How have Wake Forest and SMU played lately?
Wake Forest
5–0 in the last five. Won 5 straight.
- W 77–0 vs. Merrimack Week 10
- W 51–7 vs. Virginia Week 9
- W 41–7 at California Week 7
- W 38–14 at NC State Week 6
- W 57–3 vs. Stanford Week 5
SMU
4–1 in the last five.
- W 51–28 vs. Virginia Tech Week 10
- L 27–30 at Syracuse Week 9
- W 59–20 vs. California Week 8
- W 23–13 vs. Virginia Week 7
- W 25–16 vs. Boston College Week 5
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Wake Forest and SMU?
Wake Forest
- Devin Cook (#15), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Elijah Otieno (#20), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Dalton DeBoer (#69), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
SMU
- Ahmaad Moses (#7), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Nov 6)
- Ira Singleton IV (#9), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Nov 6)
- Tyren Polley Jr. (#10), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Nov 6)
- Carterrious Brown (#11), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Nov 6)
- Jaelyn Davis-Robinson (#13), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Nov 6)
- Trey Wilson (#14), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Nov 6)
- Link Rhodes (#24), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Nov 6)
- I'Zayah Young (#25), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Nov 6)
- Xavier Wright (#46), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Nov 6)
- Abel Hoopii (#58), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Nov 6)
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Wake Forest and SMU compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Wake Forest and SMU are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
The players in charts
How Wake Forest's and SMU's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
RatingsWake Forest 7–3
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Wake Forest and SMU?
On a neutral field, SP+ has SMU 1.2 points better (21st to 25th). PRIME has Wake Forest by 13.4 instead. The two ratings split on SMU's defense: 31st in SP+, 59th in PRIME. Elo, which only sees results, has Wake Forest ahead (12th to 22nd).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Where the data comes from: SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update), last pulled Nov 2, 2026; PRIME (primecfb.com), updated Nov 9, 2026; Elo from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Opponent-adjustedWake Forest 13–3
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Wake Forest's offense ranks 4th in adjusted EPA per play, and the SMU defense it faces ranks 96th in EPA per play allowed. SMU's offense ranks 25th against Wake Forest's 31st-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Wake Forest's offense against SMU's defense. The biggest edge on the board is Wake Forest's run game: 5th in adjusted EPA per rush, against SMU's 102nd-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and SMU's defense falls from 68th to 96th in EPA per play allowed: a lot of that came against soft offenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
EPAWake Forest 7–1
Who's more efficient, Wake Forest or SMU?
Wake Forest is about as good throwing (3rd in EPA per pass) as running (2nd). SMU is better throwing (6th in EPA per pass) than running (62nd). Wake Forest's pass defense ranks 36th, so that's an edge. On third down, SMU has the edge: their offense ranks 7th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense they face ranks 72nd.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
ScoringWake Forest 2–0
Who scores more, Wake Forest or SMU?
Wake Forest outscores FBS opponents by 27.4 a game, and SMU by 14.1. Wake Forest's offense ranks 4th in scoring, and the SMU defense it faces ranks 53rd in points allowed. SMU's offense ranks 19th against Wake Forest's 13th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Wake Forest's offense against SMU's defense.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
OffenseWake Forest 9–3
Which offense has the edge?
Wake Forest's best matchup is big plays: their offense ranks 2nd in explosive play rate, and SMU's defense ranks 85th in explosive plays allowed. That's a mismatch. SMU's best matchup is staying on schedule: their offense ranks 13th in success rate, and Wake Forest's defense ranks 43rd in success rate allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
DefenseWake Forest 7–4
Which defense has the edge?
Wake Forest's defense is best placed to stop the run: it ranks 8th in yards per carry allowed, and SMU's offense is middle of the pack in yards per carry (70th). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
Up frontWake Forest 10–2
Who wins up front?
Wake Forest has the better number in 10 of 12. The biggest gap is stuff rate (runs stopped at or behind the line), where Wake Forest ranks 6th and SMU 90th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TurnoversWake Forest 5–1
Who wins the turnover battle?
Wake Forest is +0.4 in turnover margin a game and SMU is −0.6. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 5-point edge for Wake Forest. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.
Per game, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TalentSMU 8–3
Which team has more talent?
SMU has the more talented roster (31st in the 247Sports talent composite; Wake Forest is 63rd). But Wake Forest plays further above their talent: +11.1 points of SP+ beyond what their roster predicts, to SMU's +7.0.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Where the data comes from: 247Sports, preseason; 247Sports talent composite against SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026); CollegeFootballData.com returning production, preseason; 247Sports recruiting rankings, via CollegeFootballData.com.
MoneyWake Forest 3–0
Which roster costs more?
SMU's roster is valued at $22.4M, Wake Forest's at $18.7M. Dollar for dollar, Wake Forest plays better: +8.4 points of SP+ above what their payroll predicts, to +5.8 for SMU.
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
Where the data comes from: The NIL Standard, preseason estimates; The NIL Standard's preseason roster values against this season's results.
RECEIPTSWake Forest 3–2
Where did each team's wins come from?
Wake Forest is +3.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (+1.7). SMU is +2.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (+1.2). Wake Forest's record is running 1.2 wins ahead of their play on luck alone, so they're not as good as the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Where the data comes from: our split of every game result, games through Nov 7, 2026, using SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026), the 247Sports talent composite and CollegeFootballData.com returning production.
The trip
How far is Wake Forest traveling?
It's Wake Forest's 5th road trip of the season. Counting this one, they'll have traveled 8,320 miles, there and back, 26th of 138 in FBS.
The transitive property
The shortest chain of real results this season that “proves” each team wins.
Wake Forest wins
30–27Week 4
41–31Week 3
Wake Forest beat Louisville 30–27 in Week 4. Louisville beat SMU 41–31 in Week 3.SMU wins
25–16Week 5
27–21Week 7
12–7Week 2
39–31Week 8
28–24Week 7
31–24Week 10
33–20Week 3SMU beat Boston College 25–16 in Week 5. Boston College beat Pittsburgh 27–21 in Week 7. Pittsburgh beat UCF 12–7 in Week 2. UCF beat BYU 39–31 in Week 8. BYU beat Notre Dame 28–24 in Week 7. Notre Dame beat Miami 31–24 in Week 10. Miami beat Wake Forest 33–20 in Week 3.Each arrow in a chain is a win, with the score and the week. At a neutral site, both teams travel.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com schedules and results, games through Nov 7, 2026. Miles as the crow flies, campus to stadium.
FAQ
Wake Forest at SMU: questions people ask
Wake Forest vs. SMU prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Wake Forest, 66% chance to win. SP+ and PRIME favor the same team. Wake Forest's best matchup is their ball security, 3rd in interceptions thrown per pass, against SMU's takeaway defense at 126th.
Where can I watch Wake Forest vs. SMU, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 14, 12:00 PM ET at Gerald J. Ford Stadium. The TV network hasn't been announced yet.
What's the projected score of Wake Forest vs. SMU?
SP+ projects SMU 30–27. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for Wake Forest at SMU?
DraftKings has Wake Forest −1.5, total 61.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the Wake Forest vs. SMU series history?
SMU leads 3–1. Last meeting: Wake Forest won 13–12 in 2025.
Who are the players to watch in Wake Forest vs. SMU?
Wake Forest: Giovanni Lopez (2,176 passing yards), Ty Clark III (416 rushing yards) and Carlos Hernandez (945 receiving yards). SMU: Kevin Jennings (2,783 passing yards), Kendrick Raphael (760 rushing yards) and Yamir Knight (626 receiving yards). Season totals through Nov 7, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Wake Forest at SMU?
Wake Forest's is Giovanni Lopez (2,176 passing yards this season); SMU's is Kevin Jennings (2,783 passing yards this season).
Keep going
- Wake Forest: every stat, rank and the schedule
- SMU: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Florida State at Pittsburgh: the numbers' pick
- Louisville at North Carolina: the numbers' pick
- Stanford at Virginia Tech: the numbers' pick
- Duke at Miami: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 11 pick
- The ACC: standings, stats and rankings
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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Numbers through the games of Nov 7, 2026. SP+ as of Nov 2, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Recent form
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.