Stanford vs. Virginia Tech Prediction and Pick, Week 11 2026
87% chance to win
- Virginia Tech should throw it. Virginia Tech is top-25 (18th) in EPA per pass, and Stanford is bottom-20 (130th) in EPA per pass allowed.
Updated
Stanford at Virginia Tech
Projected score: Stanford 17, Virginia Tech 39 (total 56).SP+: Virginia Tech by 22.3, 94% chance to win.PRIME: Virginia Tech by 13.8.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 14, time TBA
- Where
- Lane Stadium
- Line
- Virginia Tech −15.5, total 59.5
- Line movement
- Opened Virginia Tech −16.5; moved 1 point toward Stanford.
- Series
- Tied 1–1
- Last meeting
- Virginia Tech 31–7 in 2024
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Virginia Tech by 22.3 | 94% | 56 |
| PRIME | Virginia Tech by 13.8 | 84% | |
| Elo | Virginia Tech | 90% | |
| The line | Virginia Tech −15.5, opened −16.5 | 59.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Mon, Nov 9, 7:09 AM ET.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Stanford or Virginia Tech?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
What do the sportsbooks say?
| Sportsbook | Stanford spread | Virginia Tech spread | Over | Under | Stanford moneyline | Virginia Tech moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +15.5 −112 | −15.5 −108 | 59.5 −105 | 59.5 −115 | +500 | −700 (best price) |
| FanDuel | +15.5 −106 (best price) | −15.5 −114 | 59.5 −104 | 59.5 −118 | +520 | −720 |
| BetMGM | +15.5 −110 | −15.5 −108 | 59.5 −105 | 59.5 −112 | +525 (best price) | −700 (best price) |
| Caesars | +15.5 −110 | −15.5 −110 | 58.5 −118 (best price) | 58.5 −102 | +525 (best price) | −800 |
| ESPN BET | +15.5 −115 | −15.5 −105 | 59.5 −105 | 59.5 −115 | +500 | −800 |
| BetRivers | +14.5 −112 | −14.5 −112 | 59.5 −112 | 59.5 −112 | +475 | −715 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +14.5 −110 | −14.5 −110 (best price) | 59.5 −110 | 59.5 −110 (best price) | +475 | −700 (best price) |
| Fanatics | +15 −110 | −15 −110 | 59 −110 | 59 −110 | +500 | −700 (best price) |
Odds updated Mon., Nov. 9, 7:09 AM ET. The best price on each bet is marked. Prices move fast, so check the book before you bet. Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Stanford vs. Virginia Tech?
All three ratings favor Virginia Tech, by 13.8 points, and it isn't close. Virginia Tech's best matchup is their passing game, 18th in EPA per pass, against Stanford's pass defense at 130th. Stanford's way back in is their ball security, 24th in interceptions thrown per pass, against Virginia Tech's takeaway defense at 125th.
Stanford with the ball
Virginia Tech with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026; CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Recent form
How have Stanford and Virginia Tech played lately?
Stanford
2–3 in the last five.
- L 24–52 at Louisville Week 9
- W 31–28 vs. NC State Week 8
- W 34–7 vs. Elon Week 7
- L 7–58 at Notre Dame Week 6
- L 3–57 at Wake Forest Week 5
Virginia Tech
2–3 in the last five.
- L 28–51 at SMU Week 10
- W 20–16 at Clemson Week 8
- W 34–24 vs. Georgia Tech Week 7
- L 20–25 at California Week 6
- L 33–35 vs. Pittsburgh Week 5
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Stanford and Virginia Tech?
Stanford
- Brandon Nicholson (CB), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Langdon Horace (#18), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- London Bironas (#19), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Zaiden McDonald (#22), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Breylan Thompson (#27), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Sam Neely III (#28), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Matt Rose (#35), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Aidan Kilstrom (#52), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Nathan Mejia (#53), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Preston Jernegan (#54), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Brendan Delaney (#58), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Reiman Zebert (#83), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Peyton Warford (#93), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
Virginia Tech
- Shamarius "Snook" Peterkin (#15), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Nov 6)
- Thomas Williams (CB), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Nov 6)
- George Ballance (#25), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Nov 6)
- Randy Adirika (DL), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Nov 6)
- Nathaniel Wright (#50), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Nov 6)
- Lucas Austin (#57), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Nov 6)
- Justin Terry (#72), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Nov 6)
- Marlen Bright (#74), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Nov 6)
- Luke Stuewe (#83), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Nov 6)
- Emmett Laws (#99), last game: game time decision (ACC availability report, game day, Nov 6)
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Stanford and Virginia Tech compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Stanford and Virginia Tech are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
The players in charts
How Stanford's and Virginia Tech's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
RatingsVirginia Tech 9–1
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Stanford and Virginia Tech?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Virginia Tech 19.8 points better (38th to 112th). PRIME also has Virginia Tech ahead, by 11.3. Elo, which only sees results, also has Virginia Tech ahead (74th to 125th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Where the data comes from: SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update), last pulled Nov 2, 2026; PRIME (primecfb.com), updated Nov 9, 2026; Elo from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Opponent-adjustedVirginia Tech 14–2
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Stanford's offense ranks 94th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Virginia Tech defense it faces ranks 113th in EPA per play allowed. Virginia Tech's offense ranks 33rd against Stanford's 136th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Virginia Tech's offense against Stanford's defense. The biggest edge on the board is Virginia Tech's passing game: 18th in adjusted EPA per pass, against Stanford's 130th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and Stanford's offense falls from 60th to 94th in EPA per play: a lot of that came against soft defenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
EPAVirginia Tech 8–0
Who's more efficient, Stanford or Virginia Tech?
Stanford is better throwing (47th in EPA per pass) than running (115th). Virginia Tech's pass defense ranks 96th, so that's an edge. Virginia Tech is better throwing (23rd in EPA per pass) than running (77th). Stanford's pass defense ranks 125th, so that's a mismatch. On third down, Virginia Tech has the edge: their offense ranks 79th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense they face ranks 136th.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
ScoringVirginia Tech 2–0
Who scores more, Stanford or Virginia Tech?
Stanford is outscored by 17.0 a game, and Virginia Tech by 10.3. Stanford's offense ranks 118th in scoring, and the Virginia Tech defense it faces ranks 64th in points allowed. Virginia Tech's offense ranks 27th against Stanford's 136th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Virginia Tech's offense against Stanford's defense.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
OffenseVirginia Tech 11–1
Which offense has the edge?
Stanford has no clear edge here. Their best is explosive play rate, 120th, against a defense ranked 121st in explosive plays allowed. Virginia Tech's best matchup is big plays: their offense ranks 41st in explosive play rate, and Stanford's defense ranks 136th in explosive plays allowed. That's a mismatch.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
DefenseVirginia Tech 11–0
Which defense has the edge?
Virginia Tech's defense is best placed to get off the field on third down: it ranks 37th in 3rd down conversions allowed, and Stanford's offense is bottom-20 in 3rd down conversion rate (131st). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
Up frontVirginia Tech 7–5
Who wins up front?
Virginia Tech has the better number in 7 of 12. The biggest gap is big Uglies: defensive front, where Virginia Tech ranks 3rd and Stanford 136th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TurnoversStanford 3–1
Who wins the turnover battle?
Stanford is −0.1 in turnover margin a game and Virginia Tech is −0.6. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 2-point edge for Stanford. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.
Per game, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TalentVirginia Tech 9–1
Which team has more talent?
Virginia Tech has the more talented roster (27th in the 247Sports talent composite; Stanford is 50th). Virginia Tech also plays further above their talent: +2.3 points of SP+ beyond what their roster predicts, to Stanford's −13.5.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Where the data comes from: 247Sports, preseason; 247Sports talent composite against SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026); CollegeFootballData.com returning production, preseason; 247Sports recruiting rankings, via CollegeFootballData.com.
MoneyVirginia Tech 3–0
Which roster costs more?
Virginia Tech's roster is valued at $22.3M, Stanford's at $17.8M. Virginia Tech also plays better per dollar: +1.5 points of SP+ above what their payroll predicts, to −13.5 for Stanford.
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
Where the data comes from: The NIL Standard, preseason estimates; The NIL Standard's preseason roster values against this season's results.
RECEIPTSVirginia Tech 4–1
Where did each team's wins come from?
Stanford is −0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is luck (+1.7). Virginia Tech is +1.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is roster (+0.9). Stanford's record is running 1.7 wins ahead of their play on luck alone, so they're not as good as the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Where the data comes from: our split of every game result, games through Nov 7, 2026, using SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026), the 247Sports talent composite and CollegeFootballData.com returning production.
The trip
How far is Stanford traveling?
It's Stanford's 5th road trip of the season. Counting this one, they'll have traveled 21,695 miles, there and back, 2nd of 138 in FBS.
The transitive property
The shortest chain of real results this season that “proves” each team wins.
Stanford wins
31–28Week 8
31–10Week 9
25–20Week 6
Stanford beat NC State 31–28 in Week 8. NC State beat California 31–10 in Week 9. California beat Virginia Tech 25–20 in Week 6.Virginia Tech wins
34–24Week 7
28–25Week 6
35–7Week 3Virginia Tech beat Georgia Tech 34–24 in Week 7. Georgia Tech beat Duke 28–25 in Week 6. Duke beat Stanford 35–7 in Week 3.Each arrow in a chain is a win, with the score and the week. At a neutral site, both teams travel.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com schedules and results, games through Nov 7, 2026. Miles as the crow flies, campus to stadium.
FAQ
Stanford at Virginia Tech: questions people ask
Stanford vs. Virginia Tech prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Virginia Tech, 87% chance to win. SP+ and PRIME favor the same team. Virginia Tech's best matchup is their passing game, 18th in EPA per pass, against Stanford's pass defense at 130th.
Where can I watch Stanford vs. Virginia Tech, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 14, time TBA at Lane Stadium. The TV network hasn't been announced yet.
What's the projected score of Stanford vs. Virginia Tech?
SP+ projects Virginia Tech 39–17. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for Stanford at Virginia Tech?
DraftKings has Virginia Tech −15.5, total 59.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the Stanford vs. Virginia Tech series history?
It's tied 1–1. Last meeting: Virginia Tech won 31–7 in 2024.
Who are the players to watch in Stanford vs. Virginia Tech?
Stanford: Davis Warren (2,203 passing yards), Micah Ford (751 rushing yards) and Caden High (419 receiving yards). Virginia Tech: Ethan Grunkemeyer (2,431 passing yards), Jeffrey Overton Jr. (762 rushing yards) and Que'Sean Brown (722 receiving yards). Season totals through Nov 7, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Stanford at Virginia Tech?
Stanford's is Davis Warren (2,203 passing yards this season); Virginia Tech's is Ethan Grunkemeyer (2,431 passing yards this season).
Keep going
- Stanford: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Virginia Tech: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Florida State at Pittsburgh: the numbers' pick
- Louisville at North Carolina: the numbers' pick
- Wake Forest at SMU: the numbers' pick
- Duke at Miami: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 11 pick
- The ACC: standings, stats and rankings
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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Numbers through the games of Nov 7, 2026. SP+ as of Nov 2, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Recent form
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.