Louisville vs. North Carolina Prediction, Week 11 2026
The numbers sayLouisville71% chance to win
- Louisville's offense should move it. Louisville is top-10 (7th) in success rate, and North Carolina is bottom-40 (112th) in success rate allowed.
- Louisville's 3rd down offense has the edge on North Carolina's 3rd down defense. Louisville is above average (32nd) in 3rd down conversion, and North Carolina is bottom-20 (121st) in 3rd downs allowed.
Updated
Louisville at North Carolina
Projected score: Louisville 33, North Carolina 27 (total 60).SP+: Louisville by 6.0, 67% chance to win.PRIME: Louisville by 5.6.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 14, time TBA
- Where
- Kenan Stadium
- Line
- Louisville −3, total 60.5
- Line movement
- Opened Louisville −2.5; moved 0.5 points toward Louisville. Total opened 59.5, up 1.
- Series
- Louisville leads 5–3
- Last meeting
- Louisville 47–35 in 2017
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Louisville by 6.0 | 67% | 60 |
| PRIME | Louisville by 5.6 | 66% | |
| Elo | Louisville | 76% | |
| The line | Louisville −3, opened −2.5 | 60.5, opened 59.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Mon, Nov 9, 7:09 AM ET.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Louisville or North Carolina?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
What do the sportsbooks say?
| Sportsbook | Louisville spread | North Carolina spread | Over | Under | Louisville moneyline | North Carolina moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | −3 −110 | +3 −110 | 60.5 −112 | 60.5 −108 | −142 | +120 |
| FanDuel | −3.5 +100 | +3.5 −122 | 60.5 −112 | 60.5 −108 | −150 | +125 |
| BetMGM | −3 −110 | +3 −108 | 60.5 −110 (best price) | 60.5 −108 | −150 | +125 |
| Caesars | −3 −107 | +3 −113 | 60.5 −110 (best price) | 60.5 −110 | −143 | +121 |
| ESPN BET | −3.5 +100 | +3.5 −120 (best price) | 60.5 −110 (best price) | 60.5 −110 | −150 | +130 (best price) |
| BetRivers | −2.5 −118 (best price) | +2.5 −106 | 60.5 −115 | 60.5 −108 | −141 | +114 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −2.5 −135 | +2.5 +115 | 60.5 −115 | 60.5 −105 (best price) | −140 (best price) | +115 |
| Fanatics | −3 −110 | +3 −110 | 60.5 −110 (best price) | 60.5 −110 | −150 | +125 |
Odds updated Mon., Nov. 9, 7:09 AM ET. The best price on each bet is marked. Prices move fast, so check the book before you bet. Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Louisville vs. North Carolina?
All three ratings favor Louisville, by 5.6 points. Louisville's best matchup is their offense, 7th in success rate, against North Carolina's defense at 112th. North Carolina's way back in is their early-down offense, 42nd in SUPLEX, against Louisville's early-down defense at 80th.
Louisville with the ball
North Carolina with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026; CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Recent form
How have Louisville and North Carolina played lately?
Louisville
4–1 in the last five. Won 4 straight.
- W 44–17 at Georgia Tech Week 10
- W 52–24 vs. Stanford Week 9
- W 34–26 at Syracuse Week 7
- W 44–20 vs. Florida State Week 6
- L 28–31 at NC State Week 5
North Carolina
3–2 in the last five.
- W 38–21 at UConn Week 10
- L 35–38 vs. Miami Week 9
- L 30–31 vs. Syracuse Week 8
- W 24–20 at Duke Week 7
- W 21–17 at Pittsburgh Week 6
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Louisville and North Carolina?
Louisville
- Lawayne McCoy (WR), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Antonio Watts (#9), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Jacob Baker (#48), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Bryten Close (#63), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- James Glover-Tyson (#67), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Anwar O'neal (#70), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Payton Cook (#84), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Hamilton Atkins (#90), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Sam Dawson (#98), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Isaac Brown (RB), last game: game time decision (ACC availability report, game day, Nov 7)
North Carolina
- Tre Miller (DB), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Peyton Waters (#7), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Jonathan Agumadu (#8), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Viliami Moala (#56), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Keeyun Chapman (#82), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Vodney Cleveland (#88), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Jimmy-Phrisco Alo-Suliafu (#92), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Jordan Hall (#66), last game: game time decision (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Andrew Threatt (#75), last game: game time decision (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Louisville and North Carolina compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Louisville and North Carolina are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
The players in charts
How Louisville's and North Carolina's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
RatingsLouisville 8–2
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Louisville and North Carolina?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Louisville 8.5 points better (25th to 58th). PRIME also has Louisville ahead, by 8.1. Elo, which only sees results, also has Louisville ahead (23rd to 60th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Where the data comes from: SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update), last pulled Nov 2, 2026; PRIME (primecfb.com), updated Nov 9, 2026; Elo from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Opponent-adjustedLouisville 11–5
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Louisville's offense ranks 16th in adjusted EPA per play, and the North Carolina defense it faces ranks 46th in EPA per play allowed. North Carolina's offense ranks 38th against Louisville's 24th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Louisville's offense against North Carolina's defense. The biggest edge on the board is Louisville's efficiency: 23rd in adjusted success rate, against North Carolina's 90th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and Louisville's defense climbs from 53rd to 24th in EPA per play allowed: it has done its work against good offenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
EPALouisville 6–2
Who's more efficient, Louisville or North Carolina?
Louisville is about as good throwing (9th in EPA per pass) as running (3rd). North Carolina is better throwing (47th in EPA per pass) than running (93rd). Louisville's pass defense ranks 101st, so that's an edge. On third down, Louisville has the edge: their offense ranks 7th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense they face ranks 61st.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
ScoringEven 1–1
Who scores more, Louisville or North Carolina?
Louisville outscores FBS opponents by 14.9 a game, and North Carolina by 4.3. Louisville's offense ranks 6th in scoring, and the North Carolina defense it faces ranks 51st in points allowed. North Carolina's offense ranks 75th against Louisville's 78th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Louisville's offense against North Carolina's defense.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
OffenseLouisville 11–1
Which offense has the edge?
Louisville's best matchup is staying on schedule: their offense ranks 7th in success rate, and North Carolina's defense ranks 112th in success rate allowed. That's a mismatch. North Carolina's best matchup is early downs: their offense ranks 42nd in SUPLEX, and Louisville's defense ranks 80th in SUPLEX allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
DefenseLouisville 7–4
Which defense has the edge?
Louisville's defense is best placed to stop the run: it ranks 41st in yards per carry allowed, and North Carolina's offense is bottom-40 in yards per carry (108th). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
Up frontLouisville 7–5
Who wins up front?
Louisville has the better number in 7 of 12. The biggest gap is open-field yards per carry, where Louisville ranks 1st and North Carolina 131st.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TurnoversLouisville 7–0
Who wins the turnover battle?
Louisville is +0.7 in turnover margin a game and North Carolina is −0.1. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 4-point edge for Louisville. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.
Per game, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TalentNorth Carolina 7–3
Which team has more talent?
North Carolina has the more talented roster (28th in the 247Sports talent composite; Louisville is 41st). But Louisville plays further above their talent: +8.1 points of SP+ beyond what their roster predicts, to North Carolina's −2.9.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Where the data comes from: 247Sports, preseason; 247Sports talent composite against SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026); CollegeFootballData.com returning production, preseason; 247Sports recruiting rankings, via CollegeFootballData.com.
MoneyLouisville 3–0
Which roster costs more?
Louisville's roster is valued at $21.6M, North Carolina's at $20.7M. Louisville also plays better per dollar: +5.3 points of SP+ above what their payroll predicts, to −2.3 for North Carolina.
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
Where the data comes from: The NIL Standard, preseason estimates; The NIL Standard's preseason roster values against this season's results.
RECEIPTSLouisville 3–2
Where did each team's wins come from?
Louisville is +1.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (+1.6). North Carolina is +0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (−1.2). North Carolina's record is running 1.1 wins ahead of their play on luck alone, so they're not as good as the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Where the data comes from: our split of every game result, games through Nov 7, 2026, using SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026), the 247Sports talent composite and CollegeFootballData.com returning production.
The trip
How far is Louisville traveling?
It's Louisville's 5th road trip of the season. Counting this one, they'll have traveled 3,794 miles, there and back, 100th of 138 in FBS.
The transitive property
The shortest chain of real results this season that “proves” each team wins.
Louisville wins
34–26Week 7
31–30Week 8
Louisville beat Syracuse 34–26 in Week 7. Syracuse beat North Carolina 31–30 in Week 8.North Carolina wins
24–20Week 7
41–3Week 10
31–28Week 5North Carolina beat Duke 24–20 in Week 7. Duke beat NC State 41–3 in Week 10. NC State beat Louisville 31–28 in Week 5.Each arrow in a chain is a win, with the score and the week. At a neutral site, both teams travel.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com schedules and results, games through Nov 7, 2026. Miles as the crow flies, campus to stadium.
FAQ
Louisville at North Carolina: questions people ask
Louisville vs. North Carolina prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Louisville, 71% chance to win. SP+ and PRIME favor the same team. Louisville's best matchup is their offense, 7th in success rate, against North Carolina's defense at 112th.
Where can I watch Louisville vs. North Carolina, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 14, time TBA at Kenan Stadium. The TV network hasn't been announced yet.
What's the projected score of Louisville vs. North Carolina?
SP+ projects Louisville 33–27. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for Louisville at North Carolina?
DraftKings has Louisville −3, total 60.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the Louisville vs. North Carolina series history?
Louisville leads 5–3. Last meeting: Louisville won 47–35 in 2017.
Who are the players to watch in Louisville vs. North Carolina?
Louisville: Lincoln Kienholz (2,276 passing yards), Isaac Brown (745 rushing yards) and Tre Richardson (685 receiving yards). North Carolina: Billy Edwards (2,126 passing yards), Benjamin Hall (377 rushing yards) and Jordan Shipp (642 receiving yards). Season totals through Nov 7, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Louisville at North Carolina?
Louisville's is Lincoln Kienholz (2,276 passing yards this season); North Carolina's is Billy Edwards (2,126 passing yards this season).
Keep going
- Louisville: every stat, rank and the schedule
- North Carolina: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Florida State at Pittsburgh: the numbers' pick
- Stanford at Virginia Tech: the numbers' pick
- Wake Forest at SMU: the numbers' pick
- Duke at Miami: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 11 pick
- The ACC: standings, stats and rankings
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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Numbers through the games of Nov 7, 2026. SP+ as of Nov 2, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Recent form
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.