California vs. Virginia Prediction and Pick, Week 11 2026
The numbers sayVirginia83% chance to win
- Virginia's offensive line has the edge on California's run-stopping front. Virginia is above average (49th) in line yards per carry, and California is bottom-20 (124th) in line yards allowed per carry.
- Virginia's pass defense has the edge on California's passing game. Virginia is middle of the pack (57th) in EPA per pass allowed, and California is bottom-20 (126th) in EPA per pass.
Updated
California at Virginia
Projected score: California 17, Virginia 33 (total 50).SP+: Virginia by 16.5, 88% chance to win.PRIME: Virginia by 11.1.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 14, 3:30 PM ET
- TV
- ACC Network
- Where
- Scott Stadium
- Line
- Virginia −12.5, total 47.5
- Line movement
- Hasn't moved since it opened.
- Series
- Virginia leads 1–0
- Last meeting
- Virginia 31–21 in 2025
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Virginia by 16.5 | 88% | 50 |
| PRIME | Virginia by 11.1 | 79% | |
| Elo | Virginia | 86% | |
| The line | Virginia −12.5 | 47.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Mon, Nov 9, 7:09 AM ET.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, California or Virginia?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
What do the sportsbooks say?
| Sportsbook | California spread | Virginia spread | Over | Under | California moneyline | Virginia moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +12.5 −110 (best price) | −12.5 −110 | 47.5 −110 (best price) | 47.5 −110 | +390 | −520 |
| FanDuel | +12.5 −110 (best price) | −12.5 −110 | 47.5 −110 (best price) | 47.5 −110 | +375 | −490 (best price) |
| BetMGM | +12.5 −110 (best price) | −12.5 −108 | 47.5 −110 (best price) | 47.5 −108 (best price) | +400 (best price) | −500 |
| Caesars | +12.5 −112 | −12.5 −112 | 47.5 −112 | 47.5 −112 | +380 | −500 |
| ESPN BET | +12.5 −110 (best price) | −12.5 −110 | 47.5 −110 (best price) | 47.5 −110 | +400 (best price) | −600 |
| BetRivers | +12.5 −112 | −12.5 −112 | 47.5 −114 | 47.5 −109 | +375 | −530 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +12.5 −110 (best price) | −12.5 −110 | 47.5 −110 (best price) | 47.5 −110 | +375 | −525 |
| Fanatics | +12 −110 | −12 −110 (best price) | 47.5 −110 (best price) | 47.5 −110 | +375 | −500 |
Odds updated Mon., Nov. 9, 7:09 AM ET. The best price on each bet is marked. Prices move fast, so check the book before you bet. Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide California vs. Virginia?
All three ratings favor Virginia, by 11.1 points, and it isn't close. Virginia's best matchup is their offensive line, 49th in line yards per carry, against California's run-stopping front at 124th. California's way back in is their pass protection, 36th in sacks allowed per dropback, against Virginia's pass rush at 67th.
California with the ball
Virginia with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026; CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Recent form
How have California and Virginia played lately?
California
1–4 in the last five. Lost 3 straight.
- L 10–31 at NC State Week 9
- L 20–59 at SMU Week 8
- L 7–41 vs. Wake Forest Week 7
- W 25–20 vs. Virginia Tech Week 6
- L 31–39 at UNLV Week 5
Virginia
1–4 in the last five. Lost 3 straight.
- L 7–51 at Wake Forest Week 9
- L 16–19 vs. Duke Week 8
- L 13–23 at SMU Week 7
- W 28–25 vs. Syracuse Week 6
- L 7–38 at Florida State Week 5
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for California and Virginia?
California
- Dorian Thomas (#0), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Carter Vargas (#1), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Jordan King (WR), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Mark Hamper (#15), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- JD McKinley (LB), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Nate Burrell (#98), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
Virginia
- Noah Vaughn (RB), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Corey Costner (S), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Kameron Courtney (WR), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Brandyn Hillman (S), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Rico Flores Jr. (#11), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Tim Hamann (#14), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Jae’Oyn Williams (#17), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Omillio Agard (#20), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Jekail Middlebrook (RB), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Keke Adams (S), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Triston Ward (#23), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Caleb Hardy (LB), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Alex Dunn (#27), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Ethan Minter (#30), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Jack Stevens (#37), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Isaiah Reese (#42), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Chase Morrison (#46), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Tyler Simmons (#56), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Noah Hartsoe (#58), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Grant Ellinger (#65), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Justin Zames (#87), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Jason Hammond (#91), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Bull Richardson (#96), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Devon Baxter (#99), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How California and Virginia compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; California and Virginia are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
The players in charts
How California's and Virginia's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
RatingsVirginia 9–1
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate California and Virginia?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Virginia 14.0 points better (53rd to 101st). PRIME also has Virginia ahead, by 8.6. Elo, which only sees results, also has Virginia ahead (74th to 120th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Where the data comes from: SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update), last pulled Nov 2, 2026; PRIME (primecfb.com), updated Nov 9, 2026; Elo from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Opponent-adjustedVirginia 14–2
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
California's offense ranks 133rd in adjusted EPA per play, and the Virginia defense it faces ranks 64th in EPA per play allowed. Virginia's offense ranks 97th against California's 109th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge. The biggest edge on the board is Virginia's offensive line in the run game: 49th in adjusted line yards per carry, against California's 124th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and Virginia's offense falls from 60th to 97th in EPA per play: a lot of that came against soft defenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
EPAVirginia 5–3
Who's more efficient, California or Virginia?
California is about as good throwing (117th in EPA per pass) as running (128th). Virginia is better running (39th in EPA per rush) than throwing (68th). California's run defense ranks 133rd, so that's a mismatch. On third down, California has the edge: their offense ranks 86th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense they face ranks 115th.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
ScoringVirginia 2–0
Who scores more, California or Virginia?
California is outscored by 9.7 a game, and Virginia by 2.8. California's offense ranks 109th in scoring, and the Virginia defense it faces ranks 55th in points allowed. Virginia's offense ranks 88th against California's 119th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Virginia's offense against California's defense.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
OffenseVirginia 8–4
Which offense has the edge?
California has no clear edge here. Their best is 3rd down conversion rate, 106th, against a defense ranked 55th in 3rd down conversions allowed. Virginia has no clear edge here. Their best is yards per carry, 97th, against a defense ranked 121st in yards per carry allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
DefenseVirginia 10–1
Which defense has the edge?
California's defense is best placed to get home: it ranks 97th in sack rate, and Virginia's offense is bottom-20 at avoiding sacks (132nd). Virginia's defense is best placed to win on early downs: it ranks 65th in SUPLEX allowed, and California's offense is bottom-20 in SUPLEX (132nd). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
Up frontVirginia 12–0
Who wins up front?
Virginia has the better number in 12 of 12. The biggest gap is line yards per carry, where Virginia ranks 27th and California 133rd.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TurnoversVirginia 4–2
Who wins the turnover battle?
Neither team has a real turnover edge: California is +0.1 a game and Virginia +0.3.
Per game, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TalentCalifornia 8–2
Which team has more talent?
California has the more talented roster (33rd in the 247Sports talent composite; Virginia is 53rd). But Virginia plays further above their talent: +3.5 points of SP+ beyond what their roster predicts, to California's −13.8.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Where the data comes from: 247Sports, preseason; 247Sports talent composite against SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026); CollegeFootballData.com returning production, preseason; 247Sports recruiting rankings, via CollegeFootballData.com.
MoneyVirginia 3–0
Which roster costs more?
Virginia's roster is valued at $21.0M, California's at $19.1M. Virginia also plays better per dollar: −0.4 points of SP+ above what their payroll predicts, to −12.4 for California.
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
Where the data comes from: The NIL Standard, preseason estimates; The NIL Standard's preseason roster values against this season's results.
RECEIPTSVirginia 3–2
Where did each team's wins come from?
California is −1.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (−2.5). Virginia is −0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is luck (−1.6). Virginia's record is 1.6 wins worse than their play on bad luck, so they're better than the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Where the data comes from: our split of every game result, games through Nov 7, 2026, using SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026), the 247Sports talent composite and CollegeFootballData.com returning production.
The trip
How far is California traveling?
It's California's 5th road trip of the season. Counting this one, they'll have traveled 18,102 miles, there and back, 2nd of 138 in FBS.
The transitive property
The shortest chain of real results this season that “proves” each team wins.
California wins
21–18Week 2
30–27Week 9
23–13Week 7
California beat Syracuse 21–18 in Week 2. Syracuse beat SMU 30–27 in Week 9. SMU beat Virginia 23–13 in Week 7.Virginia wins
34–8Week 1
31–10Week 9Virginia beat NC State 34–8 in Week 1. NC State beat California 31–10 in Week 9.Each arrow in a chain is a win, with the score and the week. At a neutral site, both teams travel.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com schedules and results, games through Nov 7, 2026. Miles as the crow flies, campus to stadium.
FAQ
California at Virginia: questions people ask
California vs. Virginia prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Virginia, 83% chance to win. SP+ and PRIME favor the same team. Virginia's best matchup is their offensive line, 49th in line yards per carry, against California's run-stopping front at 124th.
Where can I watch California vs. Virginia, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 14, 3:30 PM ET at Scott Stadium. It's on ACC Network.
What's the projected score of California vs. Virginia?
SP+ projects Virginia 33–17. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for California at Virginia?
DraftKings has Virginia −12.5, total 47.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the California vs. Virginia series history?
Virginia leads 1–0. Last meeting: Virginia won 31–21 in 2025.
Who are the players to watch in California vs. Virginia?
California: Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (1,751 passing yards), Adam Mohammed (363 rushing yards) and Chase Hendricks (565 receiving yards). Virginia: Beau Pribula (1,587 passing yards), Jekail Middlebrook (513 rushing yards) and Dashawn Martin (372 receiving yards). Season totals through Nov 7, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in California at Virginia?
California's is Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (1,751 passing yards this season); Virginia's is Beau Pribula (1,587 passing yards this season).
Keep going
- California: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Virginia: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Florida State at Pittsburgh: the numbers' pick
- Louisville at North Carolina: the numbers' pick
- Stanford at Virginia Tech: the numbers' pick
- Wake Forest at SMU: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 11 pick
- The ACC: standings, stats and rankings
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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Numbers through the games of Nov 7, 2026. SP+ as of Nov 2, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Recent form
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.