Duke vs. Miami Prediction and Pick, Week 11 2026
81% chance to win
- Miami's front should win up front. Miami is top-25 (14th) in line yards allowed per carry, and Duke is bottom-40 (114th) in line yards per carry.
Miami is without WR Malachi Toney (1,027 receiving yards). Miami has played one game without Toney and lost it by 7 (they won by 30 ppg with him). One game isn't enough to know yet.
Updated
Duke at Miami
Projected score: Duke 19, Miami 40 (total 59).SP+: Miami by 20.4, 93% chance to win.PRIME: Miami by 15.2.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 14, 12:00 PM ET
- TV
- ABC
- Where
- Hard Rock Stadium
- Line
- Miami −13.5, total 54.5
- Line movement
- Opened Miami −21; moved 7.5 points toward Duke. Total opened 55.5, down 1.
- Series
- Miami leads 16–5
- Last meeting
- Miami 53–31 in 2024
- Miami injuries
- Toney (WR), out
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Miami by 20.4 | 93% | 59 |
| PRIME | Miami by 15.2 | 86% | |
| Elo | Miami | 76% | |
| The line | Miami −13.5, opened −21 | 54.5, opened 55.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Mon, Nov 9, 7:09 AM ET.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Duke or Miami?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
What do the sportsbooks say?
| Sportsbook | Duke spread | Miami spread | Over | Under | Duke moneyline | Miami moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +13.5 −112 | −13.5 −108 (best price) | 54.5 −105 | 54.5 −115 | +440 | −600 |
| FanDuel | +13.5 −110 | −13.5 −110 | 53.5 −118 | 53.5 −104 | +420 | −550 (best price) |
| BetMGM | +13.5 −110 | −13.5 −108 (best price) | 53.5 −115 (best price) | 53.5 −105 | +425 | −550 (best price) |
| Caesars | +13.5 −109 | −13.5 −110 | 54.5 −106 | 54.5 −114 (best price) | +425 | −590 |
| ESPN BET | +13.5 −110 | −13.5 −110 | 54.5 −105 | 54.5 −115 | +425 | −650 |
| BetRivers | +14 −112 | −14 −112 | 54.5 −106 | 54.5 −118 | +475 (best price) | −715 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +14.5 −120 (best price) | −14.5 +100 | 54.5 −105 | 54.5 −115 | +475 (best price) | −700 |
| Fanatics | +13.5 −110 | −13.5 −110 | 54 −110 | 54 −110 | +425 | −575 |
Odds updated Mon., Nov. 9, 7:09 AM ET. The best price on each bet is marked. Prices move fast, so check the book before you bet. Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Duke vs. Miami?
All three ratings favor Miami, by 15.2 points, and it isn't close. Miami's best matchup is their ball security, 16th in interceptions thrown per pass, against Duke's takeaway defense at 134th. Duke's way back in is their ball security, 30th in interceptions thrown per pass, against Miami's takeaway defense at 119th. We left out the edges built on Toney, who's out.
Duke with the ball
Miami with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026; CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Recent form
How have Duke and Miami played lately?
Duke
3–2 in the last five. Won 3 straight.
- W 41–3 at NC State Week 10
- W 47–2 vs. Boston College Week 9
- W 19–16 at Virginia Week 8
- L 20–24 vs. North Carolina Week 7
- L 25–28 at Georgia Tech Week 6
Miami
4–1 in the last five.
- L 24–31 at Notre Dame Week 10
- W 38–35 at North Carolina Week 9
- W 52–23 vs. Pittsburgh Week 8
- W 43–35 vs. Florida State Week 7
- W 41–13 at Clemson Week 5
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Duke and Miami?
Duke
- Jamien Little (#1), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Kimari Robinson (#5), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Kavon Simmons (WR), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Qeanu Johnson (#21), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Elliott Schaper (#31), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Cosme Salas (#39), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- David Anderson (#44), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Kai Jacobowitz (#65), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Reagan McCranie (#74), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Roman Fina (#79), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Nov 7)
Miami
- Toney (WR), out. Ankle surgery. Out for Notre Dame and the rest of the regular season; expected back for the Playoff (Pete Thamel, ESPN, Nov. 4). He leads Miami with 73 catches for 1,027 yards and 13 touchdowns. (as of Nov 4, 2026)
- Joshua Moore (#3), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- CharMar Brown (#6), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Ja'Boree Antoine (#16), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Romanas "OJ" Frederique Jr. (#29), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Max Buchanan (#66), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Luka Gilbert (#88), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Duke and Miami compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Duke and Miami are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
The players in charts
How Duke's and Miami's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
RatingsMiami 9–1
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Duke and Miami?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Miami 17.9 points better (5th to 47th). PRIME also has Miami ahead, by 12.7. Elo, which only sees results, also has Miami ahead (4th to 15th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Where the data comes from: SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update), last pulled Nov 2, 2026; PRIME (primecfb.com), updated Nov 9, 2026; Elo from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Opponent-adjustedMiami 11–5
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Duke's offense ranks 43rd in adjusted EPA per play, and the Miami defense it faces ranks 53rd in EPA per play allowed. Miami's offense ranks 3rd against Duke's 17th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge. The biggest edge on the board is Duke's passing game: 35th in adjusted EPA per pass, against Miami's 80th-ranked defense. Adjust for opponents and Miami's defense climbs from 83rd to 53rd in EPA per play allowed: it has done its work against good offenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
EPAEven 4–4
Who's more efficient, Duke or Miami?
Duke is about as good throwing (27th in EPA per pass) as running (22nd). Miami is better throwing (1st in EPA per pass) than running (28th). Duke's pass defense ranks 63rd, so that's a mismatch. On third down, Duke has the edge: their offense ranks 25th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense they face ranks 56th.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
ScoringEven 1–1
Who scores more, Duke or Miami?
Duke outscores FBS opponents by 20.0 a game, and Miami by 25.8. Duke's offense ranks 35th in scoring, and the Miami defense it faces ranks 23rd in points allowed. Miami's offense ranks 1st against Duke's 5th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
OffenseMiami 11–1
Which offense has the edge?
Duke's best matchup is big plays: their offense ranks 27th in explosive play rate, and Miami's defense ranks 52nd in explosive plays allowed. Miami's best matchup is early downs: their offense ranks 7th in SUPLEX, and Duke's defense ranks 43rd in SUPLEX allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
DefenseDuke 8–3
Which defense has the edge?
Miami's defense is best placed to keep offenses behind schedule: it ranks 33rd in success rate allowed, and Duke's offense is middle of the pack in success rate (76th).
What opponents managed against them.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
Up frontDuke 7–5
Who wins up front?
Duke has the better number in 7 of 12. The biggest gap is stuff rate (runs stopped at or behind the line), where Miami ranks 2nd and Duke 85th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TurnoversEven 3–3
Who wins the turnover battle?
Neither team has a real turnover edge: Duke is +0.4 a game and Miami +0.4. Fumble recoveries are mostly luck, and Duke's takeaways lean on them (0.8 of 1.0 a game).
Per game, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TalentMiami 11–0
Which team has more talent?
Miami has the more talented roster (12th in the 247Sports talent composite; Duke is 69th). Miami also plays further above their talent: +10.7 points of SP+ beyond what their roster predicts, to Duke's +6.4.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Where the data comes from: 247Sports, preseason; 247Sports talent composite against SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026); CollegeFootballData.com returning production, preseason; 247Sports recruiting rankings, via CollegeFootballData.com.
MoneyDuke 2–1
Which roster costs more?
Miami's roster is valued at $39.4M, Duke's at $18.3M. Miami also plays better per dollar: +4.8 points of SP+ above what their payroll predicts, to +3.5 for Duke.
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
Where the data comes from: The NIL Standard, preseason estimates; The NIL Standard's preseason roster values against this season's results.
RECEIPTSMiami 3–2
Where did each team's wins come from?
Duke is +2.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (+1.2). Miami is +3.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (+1.9).
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Where the data comes from: our split of every game result, games through Nov 7, 2026, using SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026), the 247Sports talent composite and CollegeFootballData.com returning production.
The trip
How far is Duke traveling?
It's Duke's 5th road trip of the season. Counting this one, they'll have traveled 3,566 miles, there and back, 104th of 138 in FBS.
The transitive property
The shortest chain of real results this season that “proves” each team wins.
Duke wins
47–2Week 9
27–21Week 7
12–7Week 2
39–31Week 8
28–24Week 7
31–24Week 10
Duke beat Boston College 47–2 in Week 9. Boston College beat Pittsburgh 27–21 in Week 7. Pittsburgh beat UCF 12–7 in Week 2. UCF beat BYU 39–31 in Week 8. BYU beat Notre Dame 28–24 in Week 7. Notre Dame beat Miami 31–24 in Week 10.Miami wins
38–35Week 9
24–20Week 7Miami beat North Carolina 38–35 in Week 9. North Carolina beat Duke 24–20 in Week 7.Each arrow in a chain is a win, with the score and the week. At a neutral site, both teams travel.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com schedules and results, games through Nov 7, 2026. Miles as the crow flies, campus to stadium.
FAQ
Duke at Miami: questions people ask
Duke vs. Miami prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Miami, 81% chance to win. SP+ and PRIME favor the same team. Miami's best matchup is their ball security, 16th in interceptions thrown per pass, against Duke's takeaway defense at 134th.
Where can I watch Duke vs. Miami, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 14, 12:00 PM ET at Hard Rock Stadium. It's on ABC.
What's the projected score of Duke vs. Miami?
SP+ projects Miami 40–19. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for Duke at Miami?
DraftKings has Miami −13.5, total 54.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the Duke vs. Miami series history?
Miami leads 16–5. Last meeting: Miami won 53–31 in 2024.
Who are the players to watch in Duke vs. Miami?
Duke: Walker Eget (1,849 passing yards), Nate Sheppard (1,189 rushing yards) and Jonah Burton (351 receiving yards). Miami: Darian Mensah (2,701 passing yards), Mark Fletcher Jr. (514 rushing yards) and Toney (1,027 receiving yards). Season totals through Nov 7, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Duke at Miami?
Duke's is Walker Eget (1,849 passing yards this season); Miami's is Darian Mensah (2,701 passing yards this season).
Who's out for Duke at Miami?
Miami: Toney (WR), out.
Keep going
- Duke: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Miami: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Florida State at Pittsburgh: the numbers' pick
- Louisville at North Carolina: the numbers' pick
- Stanford at Virginia Tech: the numbers' pick
- Wake Forest at SMU: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 11 pick
- The ACC: standings, stats and rankings
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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Numbers through the games of Nov 7, 2026. SP+ as of Nov 2, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Recent form
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.