East Carolina vs. Charlotte Prediction and Pick, Week 11 2026
80% chance to win
- East Carolina's front should win up front. East Carolina is top-25 (13th) in line yards allowed per carry, and Charlotte is bottom-20 (137th) in line yards per carry.
- East Carolina's defense should get off the field on 3rd down. East Carolina is top-10 (9th) in 3rd downs allowed, and Charlotte is bottom-20 (127th) in 3rd down conversion.
Updated
East Carolina at Charlotte
Projected score: East Carolina 36, Charlotte 17 (total 53).SP+: East Carolina by 18.9, 91% chance to win.PRIME: East Carolina by 8.7.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 14, 1:00 PM ET
- TV
- ESPN+
- Where
- Jerry Richardson Stadium
- Weather
- 50°, fair, wind 13 mph
- Line
- East Carolina −11.5, total 45.5
- Line movement
- Opened East Carolina −13.5; moved 2 points toward Charlotte. Total opened 47.5, down 2.
- Series
- Charlotte leads 2–1
- Last meeting
- East Carolina 48–22 in 2025
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | East Carolina by 18.9 | 91% | 53 |
| PRIME | East Carolina by 8.7 | 73% | |
| Elo | East Carolina | 87% | |
| The line | East Carolina −11.5, opened −13.5 | 45.5, opened 47.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Mon, Nov 9, 5:21 PM ET.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, East Carolina or Charlotte?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
What do the sportsbooks say?
| Sportsbook | East Carolina spread | Charlotte spread | Over | Under | East Carolina moneyline | Charlotte moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | −11.5 −110 | +11.5 −110 | 45.5 −110 | 45.5 −110 | −470 | +360 |
| FanDuel | −11.5 −108 (best price) | +11.5 −112 | 46.5 −110 | 46.5 −110 | −465 (best price) | +360 |
| BetMGM | −11.5 −108 (best price) | +11.5 −110 | 46.5 −108 | 46.5 −110 | −475 | +360 |
| Caesars | −11.5 −112 | +11.5 −112 | 45.5 −108 (best price) | 45.5 −112 | −480 | +360 |
| ESPN BET | −11.5 −110 | +11.5 −110 | 47.5 −105 | 47.5 −115 (best price) | −550 | +380 (best price) |
| BetRivers | −11.5 −112 | +11.5 −112 | 45.5 −114 | 45.5 −109 | −500 | +350 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −11.5 −110 | +11.5 −110 | 45.5 −110 | 45.5 −110 | −500 | +350 |
| Fanatics | −12.5 −110 | +12.5 −110 (best price) | 45.5 −110 | 45.5 −110 | −500 | +375 |
Odds updated Mon., Nov. 9, 5:21 PM ET. The best price on each bet is marked. Prices move fast, so check the book before you bet. Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide East Carolina vs. Charlotte?
All three ratings favor East Carolina, by 8.7 points, and it isn't close. East Carolina's best matchup is their run-stopping front, 13th in line yards allowed per carry, against Charlotte's offensive line at 137th. Charlotte's way back in is their big-play offense, 75th in explosive play rate, against East Carolina's big-play defense at 123rd.
East Carolina with the ball
Charlotte with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026; CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Recent form
How have East Carolina and Charlotte played lately?
East Carolina
3–2 in the last five. Won 2 straight.
- W 20–17 vs. South Florida Week 10
- W 17–9 vs. Temple Week 9
- L 34–41 at Memphis Week 8
- L 17–30 at UAB Week 7
- W 28–12 vs. Rice Week 6
Charlotte
1–4 in the last five. Lost 2 straight.
- L 12–23 at UAB Week 10
- L 31–38 vs. Tulane Week 9
- W 38–31 at Temple Week 7
- L 10–50 at North Texas Week 6
- L 8–59 vs. Memphis Week 5
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for East Carolina and Charlotte?
East Carolina
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Charlotte
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How East Carolina and Charlotte compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; East Carolina and Charlotte are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
The players in charts
How East Carolina's and Charlotte's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
RatingsEast Carolina 9–1
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate East Carolina and Charlotte?
On a neutral field, SP+ has East Carolina 21.4 points better (91st to 136th). PRIME also has East Carolina ahead, by 11.2. Elo, which only sees results, also has East Carolina ahead (80th to 133rd).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Where the data comes from: SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update), last pulled Nov 2, 2026; PRIME (primecfb.com), updated Nov 9, 2026; Elo from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Opponent-adjustedEast Carolina 13–3
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
East Carolina's offense ranks 110th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Charlotte defense it faces ranks 107th in EPA per play allowed. Charlotte's offense ranks 130th against East Carolina's 58th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge. The biggest edge on the board is East Carolina's offensive line in the run game: 52nd in adjusted line yards per carry, against Charlotte's 98th-ranked defense. Adjust for opponents and East Carolina's defense falls from 30th to 58th in EPA per play allowed: a lot of that came against soft offenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
EPAEast Carolina 8–0
Who's more efficient, East Carolina or Charlotte?
East Carolina is better throwing (83rd in EPA per pass) than running (100th). Charlotte's pass defense ranks 128th, so that's an edge. Charlotte is better throwing (103rd in EPA per pass) than running (126th). East Carolina's pass defense ranks 22nd, so the defense has the better of it. On third down, East Carolina has the edge: their offense ranks 38th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense they face ranks 84th.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
ScoringEast Carolina 2–0
Who scores more, East Carolina or Charlotte?
East Carolina outscores FBS opponents by 0.3 a game, and Charlotte is outscored by 18.6. East Carolina's offense ranks 101st in scoring, and the Charlotte defense it faces ranks 137th in points allowed. Charlotte's offense ranks 125th against East Carolina's 56th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is East Carolina's offense against Charlotte's defense.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
OffenseEast Carolina 7–5
Which offense has the edge?
East Carolina has no clear edge here. Their best is success rate, 114th, against a defense ranked 136th in success rate allowed. Charlotte's best matchup is big plays: their offense ranks 75th in explosive play rate, and East Carolina's defense ranks 123rd in explosive plays allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
DefenseEast Carolina 10–1
Which defense has the edge?
East Carolina's defense is best placed to get off the field on third down: it ranks 9th in 3rd down conversions allowed, and Charlotte's offense is bottom-20 in 3rd down conversion rate (127th). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
Up frontEast Carolina 10–2
Who wins up front?
East Carolina has the better number in 10 of 12. The biggest gap is front-seven havoc, where East Carolina ranks 3rd and Charlotte 111th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TurnoversEast Carolina 5–1
Who wins the turnover battle?
East Carolina is −0.3 in turnover margin a game and Charlotte is −0.7. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 2-point edge for East Carolina. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.
Per game, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TalentEast Carolina 7–2
Which team has more talent?
East Carolina has the more talented roster (82nd in the 247Sports talent composite; Charlotte is 104th). East Carolina also plays further above their talent: −1.6 points of SP+ beyond what their roster predicts, to Charlotte's −20.0.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Where the data comes from: 247Sports, preseason; 247Sports talent composite against SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026); CollegeFootballData.com returning production, preseason; 247Sports recruiting rankings, via CollegeFootballData.com.
RECEIPTSEast Carolina 5–0
Where did each team's wins come from?
East Carolina is +0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+1.3). Charlotte is −3.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (−3.0).
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Where the data comes from: our split of every game result, games through Nov 7, 2026, using SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026), the 247Sports talent composite and CollegeFootballData.com returning production.
The trip
How far is East Carolina traveling?
It's East Carolina's 5th road trip of the season. Counting this one, they'll have traveled 4,336 miles, there and back, 88th of 138 in FBS.
The transitive property
The shortest chain of real results this season that “proves” each team wins.
East Carolina wins
20–17Week 10
30–10Week 9
23–12Week 10
East Carolina beat South Florida 20–17 in Week 10. South Florida beat UAB 30–10 in Week 9. UAB beat Charlotte 23–12 in Week 10.Charlotte wins
38–31Week 7
17–13Week 530–10Week 930–17Week 7Charlotte beat Temple 38–31 in Week 7. Temple beat South Florida 17–13 in Week 5. South Florida beat UAB 30–10 in Week 9. UAB beat East Carolina 30–17 in Week 7.Each arrow in a chain is a win, with the score and the week. At a neutral site, both teams travel.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com schedules and results, games through Nov 7, 2026. Miles as the crow flies, campus to stadium.
FAQ
East Carolina at Charlotte: questions people ask
East Carolina vs. Charlotte prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick East Carolina, 80% chance to win. SP+ and PRIME favor the same team. East Carolina's best matchup is their run-stopping front, 13th in line yards allowed per carry, against Charlotte's offensive line at 137th.
Where can I watch East Carolina vs. Charlotte, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 14, 1:00 PM ET at Jerry Richardson Stadium. It's on ESPN+.
What's the projected score of East Carolina vs. Charlotte?
SP+ projects East Carolina 36–17. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for East Carolina at Charlotte?
DraftKings has East Carolina −11.5, total 45.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the East Carolina vs. Charlotte series history?
Charlotte leads 2–1. Last meeting: East Carolina won 48–22 in 2025.
Who are the players to watch in East Carolina vs. Charlotte?
East Carolina: Emory Williams (891 passing yards), TJ Engleman (695 rushing yards) and Nathaniel Joseph (365 receiving yards). Charlotte: Conner Harrell (1,006 passing yards), Henry Rutledge (454 rushing yards) and Jaden Barnes (555 receiving yards). Season totals through Nov 7, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in East Carolina at Charlotte?
East Carolina's is Emory Williams (891 passing yards this season); Charlotte's is Conner Harrell (1,006 passing yards this season).
Keep going
- East Carolina: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Charlotte: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Memphis at South Florida: the numbers' pick
- UAB at Temple: the numbers' pick
- Tulane at Rice: the numbers' pick
- Florida Atlantic at Tulsa: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 11 pick
- The American Athletic: standings, stats and rankings
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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Numbers through the games of Nov 7, 2026. SP+ as of Nov 2, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Recent form
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.