Tulane vs. Rice Prediction and Pick, Week 11 2026
The numbers sayTulane55% chance to win
- Tulane's run game has the edge on Rice's run defense. Tulane is middle of the pack (53rd) in yards per carry, and Rice is bottom-40 (96th) in yards per carry allowed.
Updated
Tulane at Rice
Projected score: Tulane 26, Rice 22 (total 48).SP+: Tulane by 3.5, 60% chance to win.PRIME: Rice by 2.5, the other side.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 14, 2:00 PM ET
- TV
- ESPN+
- Where
- Rice Stadium
- Weather
- 73°, wind 3 mph
- Line
- Rice −2.5, total 48.5
- Line movement
- Opened Tulane −1.5; moved 4 points toward Rice. Total opened 46.5, up 2.
- Series
- Rice leads 20–17–1
- Last meeting
- Tulane 24–10 in 2024
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Tulane by 3.5 | 60% | 48 |
| PRIME | Rice by 2.5 | 57% | |
| Elo | Tulane | 66% | |
| The line | Rice −2.5, opened Tulane −1.5 | 48.5, opened 46.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Mon, Nov 9, 5:21 PM ET.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Tulane or Rice?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
What do the sportsbooks say?
| Sportsbook | Tulane spread | Rice spread | Over | Under | Tulane moneyline | Rice moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +2.5 −112 | −2.5 −108 | 48.5 −110 | 48.5 −110 | +114 (best price) | −135 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 −112 | −2.5 −108 | 48.5 −104 | 48.5 −118 | +102 | −122 (best price) |
| BetMGM | +2.5 −110 | −2.5 −108 | 48.5 −105 | 48.5 −112 | +110 | −130 |
| Caesars | +2.5 −107 | −2.5 −113 | 48.5 −108 | 48.5 −113 | +113 | −134 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 −105 | −1.5 −115 (best price) | 48.5 −110 | 48.5 −110 | +105 | −125 |
| BetRivers | +3 −124 | −3 +100 | 48.5 −118 | 48.5 −105 (best price) | +108 | −134 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 −135 (best price) | −3.5 +110 | 48.5 −115 | 48.5 −105 (best price) | +110 | −135 |
| Fanatics | +2.5 −110 | −2.5 −110 | 48 −110 (best price) | 48 −110 | +110 | −130 |
Odds updated Mon., Nov. 9, 5:21 PM ET. The best price on each bet is marked. Prices move fast, so check the book before you bet. Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Tulane vs. Rice?
The ratings split and average out to about 50-50, with Tulane ahead by a hair. Tulane's best matchup is their run game, 53rd in yards per carry, against Rice's run defense at 96th. Rice's way back in is their run game, 8th in yards per carry, against Tulane's run defense at 108th.
Tulane with the ball
Rice with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026; CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Recent form
How have Tulane and Rice played lately?
Tulane
2–3 in the last five.
Rice
0–5 in the last five. Lost 5 straight.
- L 23–52 at North Texas Week 10
- L 49–51 at Florida Atlantic Week 8
- L 17–38 vs. Tulsa Week 7
- L 12–28 at East Carolina Week 6
- L 14–16 vs. UTSA Week 5
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Tulane and Rice?
Tulane
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Rice
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Tulane and Rice compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Tulane and Rice are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
The players in charts
How Tulane's and Rice's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
RatingsTulane 7–2
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Tulane and Rice?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Tulane 6.0 points better (101st to 122nd). PRIME also has Tulane ahead, by 0.0. Elo, which only sees results, also has Tulane ahead (110th to 129th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Where the data comes from: SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update), last pulled Nov 2, 2026; PRIME (primecfb.com), updated Nov 9, 2026; Elo from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Opponent-adjustedRice 10–6
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Tulane's offense ranks 109th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Rice defense it faces ranks 110th in EPA per play allowed. Rice's offense ranks 100th against Tulane's 88th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge. The biggest edge on the board is Tulane's big plays: 7th in adjusted explosiveness, against Rice's 135th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
EPATulane 7–1
Who's more efficient, Tulane or Rice?
Tulane is better running (77th in EPA per rush) than throwing (99th). Rice's run defense ranks 112th, so that's an edge. Rice is better running (45th in EPA per rush) than throwing (138th). Tulane's run defense ranks 87th, so that's an edge. On third down, Tulane has the edge: their offense ranks 19th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense they face ranks 133rd.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
ScoringEven 1–1
Who scores more, Tulane or Rice?
Tulane is outscored by 8.1 a game, and Rice is outscored by 12.8. Tulane's offense ranks 114th in scoring, and the Rice defense it faces ranks 128th in points allowed. Rice's offense ranks 113th against Tulane's 107th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
OffenseRice 8–4
Which offense has the edge?
Tulane's best matchup is their run game: their offense ranks 53rd in yards per carry, and Rice's defense ranks 96th in yards per carry allowed. Rice's best matchup is their run game: their offense ranks 8th in yards per carry, and Tulane's defense ranks 108th in yards per carry allowed. That's a mismatch.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
DefenseRice 6–5
Which defense has the edge?
Tulane's defense is best placed to get home: it ranks 89th in sack rate, and Rice's offense is bottom-20 at avoiding sacks (136th). Rice's defense is best placed to keep offenses behind schedule: it ranks 103rd in success rate allowed, and Tulane's offense is bottom-20 in success rate (134th).
What opponents managed against them.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
Up frontRice 8–4
Who wins up front?
Rice has the better number in 8 of 12. The biggest gap is line yards allowed per carry, where Rice ranks 40th and Tulane 121st.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TurnoversTulane 5–2
Who wins the turnover battle?
Tulane is −0.6 in turnover margin a game and Rice is −0.9. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 2-point edge for Tulane. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.
Per game, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TalentTulane 7–3
Which team has more talent?
Tulane has the more talented roster (70th in the 247Sports talent composite; Rice is 100th). Tulane also plays further above their talent: −8.4 points of SP+ beyond what their roster predicts, to Rice's −9.6.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Where the data comes from: 247Sports, preseason; 247Sports talent composite against SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026); CollegeFootballData.com returning production, preseason; 247Sports recruiting rankings, via CollegeFootballData.com.
RECEIPTSTulane 5–0
Where did each team's wins come from?
Tulane is −0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (−1.6). Rice is −3.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (−1.8). Rice's record is 1.2 wins worse than their play on bad luck, so they're better than the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Where the data comes from: our split of every game result, games through Nov 7, 2026, using SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026), the 247Sports talent composite and CollegeFootballData.com returning production.
The trip
How far is Tulane traveling?
It's Tulane's 5th road trip of the season. Counting this one, they'll have traveled 7,367 miles, there and back, 39th of 138 in FBS.
The transitive property
The shortest chain of real results this season that “proves” each team wins.
Tulane wins
31–17Week 7
41–34Week 8
28–12Week 6
Tulane beat Memphis 31–17 in Week 7. Memphis beat East Carolina 41–34 in Week 8. East Carolina beat Rice 28–12 in Week 6.Rice wins
Can't be done. No chain of wins leads from Rice to Tulane.Each arrow in a chain is a win, with the score and the week. At a neutral site, both teams travel.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com schedules and results, games through Nov 7, 2026. Miles as the crow flies, campus to stadium.
FAQ
Tulane at Rice: questions people ask
Tulane vs. Rice prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Tulane, 55% chance to win. Elo has Tulane; PRIME has Rice. Tulane's best matchup is their run game, 53rd in yards per carry, against Rice's run defense at 96th.
Where can I watch Tulane vs. Rice, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 14, 2:00 PM ET at Rice Stadium. It's on ESPN+.
What's the projected score of Tulane vs. Rice?
SP+ projects Tulane 26–22. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for Tulane at Rice?
DraftKings has Rice −2.5, total 48.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the Tulane vs. Rice series history?
Rice leads 20–17–1. Last meeting: Tulane won 24–10 in 2024.
Who are the players to watch in Tulane vs. Rice?
Tulane: Trace Johnson (818 passing yards), Johnnie Daniels (542 rushing yards) and Destyn Hill (445 receiving yards). Rice: Jacurri Brown (471 passing yards), Tyvonn Byars (497 rushing yards) and Jordan Clark (257 receiving yards). Season totals through Nov 7, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Tulane at Rice?
Tulane's is Trace Johnson (818 passing yards this season); Rice's is Jacurri Brown (471 passing yards this season).
Keep going
- Tulane: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Rice: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Memphis at South Florida: the numbers' pick
- UAB at Temple: the numbers' pick
- East Carolina at Charlotte: the numbers' pick
- Florida Atlantic at Tulsa: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 11 pick
- The American Athletic: standings, stats and rankings
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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Numbers through the games of Nov 7, 2026. SP+ as of Nov 2, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Recent form
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.