UAB vs. Temple Prediction and Pick, Week 11 2026
The numbers sayTemple51% chance to win
- Temple's offensive line should win up front. Temple is top-10 (2nd) in line yards per carry, and UAB is bottom-20 (117th) in line yards allowed per carry.
- Temple should run it. Temple is top-25 (15th) in EPA per rush, and UAB is middle of the pack (73rd) in EPA per rush allowed.
Updated
UAB at Temple
Projected score: UAB 26, Temple 31 (total 58).SP+: Temple by 5.2, 64% chance to win.PRIME: Temple by 1.6.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 14, 1:00 PM ET
- TV
- ESPN+
- Where
- Lincoln Financial Field
- Weather
- 48°, cloudy, wind 17 mph. Enough wind to hurt the passing and kicking
- Line
- Temple −2.5, total 48.5
- Line movement
- Total opened 51.5, down 3.
- Series
- UAB leads 1–0
- Last meeting
- UAB 34–24 in 2023
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Temple by 5.2 | 64% | 58 |
| PRIME | Temple by 1.6 | 55% | |
| Elo | UAB | 53% | |
| The line | Temple −2.5 | 48.5, opened 51.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Mon, Nov 9, 5:43 PM ET.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, UAB or Temple?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
What do the sportsbooks say?
| Sportsbook | UAB spread | Temple spread | Over | Under | UAB moneyline | Temple moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +2.5 −110 | −2.5 −110 | 48.5 −112 | 48.5 −108 | +110 | −130 (best price) |
| FanDuel | +2.5 −102 (best price) | −2.5 −120 | 48.5 −110 (best price) | 48.5 −110 | +116 (best price) | −138 |
| BetMGM | +2.5 −102 (best price) | −2.5 −115 | 48.5 −110 (best price) | 48.5 −108 | +115 | −140 |
| Caesars | +2.5 −110 | −2.5 −112 | 48.5 −110 (best price) | 48.5 −112 | +115 | −136 |
| ESPN BET | +2.5 −105 | −2.5 −115 | 48.5 −110 (best price) | 48.5 −110 | +115 | −135 |
| BetRivers | +2 −109 | −2 −114 (best price) | 48.5 −117 | 48.5 −107 | +107 | −132 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 −115 | −2.5 −105 | 48.5 −115 | 48.5 −105 | +105 | −130 (best price) |
| Fanatics | +2.5 −110 | −2.5 −110 | 49 −110 | 49 −110 (best price) | +115 | −140 |
Odds updated Mon., Nov. 9, 5:43 PM ET. The best price on each bet is marked. Prices move fast, so check the book before you bet. Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide UAB vs. Temple?
The ratings split and average out to about 50-50, with Temple ahead by a hair. Temple's best matchup is their offensive line, 2nd in line yards per carry, against UAB's run-stopping front at 117th. UAB's way back in is their pass rush, 8th in sack rate, against Temple's pass protection at 120th.
UAB with the ball
Temple
UABUABTemple with the ball
TempleUABUABUABUABEach row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026; CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Recent form
How have UAB and Temple played lately?
UAB
3–2 in the last five.
- W 23–12 vs. Charlotte Week 10
- L 10–30 at South Florida Week 9
- W 30–17 vs. East Carolina Week 7
- L 13–38 at Memphis Week 6
- W 33–14 vs. Samford Week 5
Temple
1–4 in the last five. Lost 4 straight.
- L 35–42 at Navy Week 10
- L 9–17 at East Carolina Week 9
- L 31–38 vs. Charlotte Week 7
- L 20–34 vs. UConn Week 6
- W 17–13 at South Florida Week 5
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for UAB and Temple?
UAB
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Temple
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How UAB and Temple compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; UAB and Temple are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
The players in charts
How UAB's and Temple's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
RatingsUAB 5–4
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate UAB and Temple?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Temple 2.7 points better (99th to 110th). PRIME has UAB by 0.9 instead. The two ratings split on UAB's defense: 103rd in SP+, 55th in PRIME. Elo, which only sees results, has UAB ahead (93rd to 107th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Where the data comes from: SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update), last pulled Nov 2, 2026; PRIME (primecfb.com), updated Nov 9, 2026; Elo from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Opponent-adjustedTemple 10–6
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
UAB's offense ranks 128th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Temple defense it faces ranks 112th in EPA per play allowed. Temple's offense ranks 55th against UAB's 40th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge. The biggest edge on the board is Temple's offensive line in the run game: 2nd in adjusted line yards per carry, against UAB's 117th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
EPAEven 4–4
Who's more efficient, UAB or Temple?
UAB is better running (85th in EPA per rush) than throwing (125th). Temple's run defense ranks 94th. Temple is better running (31st in EPA per rush) than throwing (83rd). UAB's run defense ranks 72nd, so that's an edge.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
ScoringEven 1–1
Who scores more, UAB or Temple?
UAB is outscored by 2.0 a game, and Temple is outscored by 3.4. UAB's offense ranks 112th in scoring, and the Temple defense it faces ranks 101st in points allowed. Temple's offense ranks 92nd against UAB's 62nd-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
OffenseTemple 11–1
Which offense has the edge?
UAB's best matchup is third downs: their offense ranks 72nd in 3rd down conversion rate, and Temple's defense ranks 125th in 3rd down conversions allowed. Temple's best matchup is their run game: their offense ranks 16th in yards per carry, and UAB's defense ranks 76th in yards per carry allowed. That's a mismatch.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
DefenseUAB 9–2
Which defense has the edge?
UAB's defense is best placed to get home: it ranks 8th in sack rate, and Temple's offense is bottom-20 at avoiding sacks (120th). That's a mismatch. Temple's defense is best placed to stop the run: it ranks 65th in yards per carry allowed, and UAB's offense is bottom-40 in yards per carry (106th).
What opponents managed against them.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
Up frontTemple 8–4
Who wins up front?
Temple has the better number in 8 of 12. The biggest gap is front-seven havoc, where UAB ranks 35th and Temple 135th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TurnoversTemple 4–2
Who wins the turnover battle?
Temple is −0.2 in turnover margin a game and UAB is −0.7. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 2-point edge for Temple. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.
Per game, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TalentTemple 6–4
Which team has more talent?
Temple has the more talented roster (80th in the 247Sports talent composite; UAB is 92nd). Temple also plays further above their talent: −5.7 points of SP+ beyond what their roster predicts, to UAB's −6.9.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Where the data comes from: 247Sports, preseason; 247Sports talent composite against SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026); CollegeFootballData.com returning production, preseason; 247Sports recruiting rankings, via CollegeFootballData.com.
RECEIPTSUAB 4–1
Where did each team's wins come from?
UAB is +0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (−1.4). Temple is −2.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is luck (−1.7). Temple's record is 1.7 wins worse than their play on bad luck, so they're better than the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Where the data comes from: our split of every game result, games through Nov 7, 2026, using SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026), the 247Sports talent composite and CollegeFootballData.com returning production.
The trip
How far is UAB traveling?
It's UAB's 5th road trip of the season. Counting this one, they'll have traveled 4,593 miles, there and back, 85th of 138 in FBS.
The transitive property
The shortest chain of real results this season that “proves” each team wins.
UAB wins
30–17Week 7
17–9Week 9UAB beat East Carolina 30–17 in Week 7. East Carolina beat Temple 17–9 in Week 9.Temple wins
17–13Week 5
30–10Week 9Temple beat South Florida 17–13 in Week 5. South Florida beat UAB 30–10 in Week 9.Each arrow in a chain is a win, with the score and the week. At a neutral site, both teams travel.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com schedules and results, games through Nov 7, 2026. Miles as the crow flies, campus to stadium.
FAQ
UAB at Temple: questions people ask
UAB vs. Temple prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Temple, 51% chance to win. PRIME has Temple; Elo has UAB. Temple's best matchup is their offensive line, 2nd in line yards per carry, against UAB's run-stopping front at 117th.
Where can I watch UAB vs. Temple, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 14, 1:00 PM ET at Lincoln Financial Field. It's on ESPN+.
What's the projected score of UAB vs. Temple?
SP+ projects Temple 31–26. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for UAB at Temple?
DraftKings has Temple −2.5, total 48.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the UAB vs. Temple series history?
UAB leads 1–0. Last meeting: UAB won 34–24 in 2023.
Who are the players to watch in UAB vs. Temple?
UAB: Ryder Burton (1,475 passing yards), Roderick Robinson II (551 rushing yards) and C.J. Smith (437 receiving yards). Temple: Ajani Sheppard (1,245 passing yards), Keveun Mason (584 rushing yards) and Colin Chase (381 receiving yards). Season totals through Nov 7, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in UAB at Temple?
UAB's is Ryder Burton (1,475 passing yards this season); Temple's is Ajani Sheppard (1,245 passing yards this season).
Keep going
- UAB: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Temple: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Memphis at South Florida: the numbers' pick
- East Carolina at Charlotte: the numbers' pick
- Tulane at Rice: the numbers' pick
- Florida Atlantic at Tulsa: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 11 pick
- The American Athletic: standings, stats and rankings
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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Numbers through the games of Nov 7, 2026. SP+ as of Nov 2, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Recent form
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.