Florida Atlantic vs. Tulsa Prediction and Pick, Week 11 2026
The numbers sayTulsa65% chance to win
- Tulsa should run it. Tulsa is top-25 (13th) in EPA per rush, and Florida Atlantic is bottom-20 (135th) in EPA per rush allowed.
- Tulsa's scoring offense has the edge on Florida Atlantic's scoring defense. Tulsa is above average (34th) in points per game, and Florida Atlantic is bottom-20 (134th) in points allowed.
Updated
Florida Atlantic at Tulsa
Projected score: Florida Atlantic 32, Tulsa 36 (total 68).SP+: Tulsa by 3.7, 60% chance to win.PRIME: Tulsa by 2.8.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 14, 3:30 PM ET
- TV
- ESPN+
- Where
- Chapman Stadium
- Weather
- 52°, wind 7 mph
- Line
- Tulsa −5.5, total 74.5
- Line movement
- Total opened 66.5, up 8.
- Series
- Florida Atlantic leads 4–1
- Last meeting
- Florida Atlantic 40–21 in 2025
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Tulsa by 3.7 | 60% | 68 |
| PRIME | Tulsa by 2.8 | 58% | |
| Elo | Tulsa | 72% | |
| The line | Tulsa −5.5 | 74.5, opened 66.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Mon, Nov 9, 5:43 PM ET.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Florida Atlantic or Tulsa?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
What do the sportsbooks say?
| Sportsbook | Florida Atlantic spread | Tulsa spread | Over | Under | Florida Atlantic moneyline | Tulsa moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +5.5 −112 | −5.5 −108 (best price) | 74.5 −110 | 74.5 −110 | +180 | −218 |
| FanDuel | +5.5 −110 (best price) | −5.5 −110 | 74.5 −110 | 74.5 −110 | +168 | −205 (best price) |
| BetMGM | +5.5 −112 | −5.5 −108 (best price) | 74.5 −110 | 74.5 −108 | +180 | −220 |
| Caesars | +5.5 −112 | −5.5 −108 (best price) | 74.5 −110 | 74.5 −109 | +181 (best price) | −218 |
| ESPN BET | +5.5 −110 (best price) | −5.5 −110 | 74.5 −115 | 74.5 −105 (best price) | +180 | −215 |
| BetRivers | +5.5 −112 | −5.5 −112 | 73.5 −122 | 73.5 +100 | +170 | −215 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +5.5 −110 (best price) | −5.5 −110 | 73.5 −120 (best price) | 73.5 +100 | +170 | −210 |
| Fanatics | +5.5 −110 (best price) | −5.5 −110 | 74.5 −110 | 74.5 −110 | +180 | −220 |
Odds updated Mon., Nov. 9, 5:43 PM ET. The best price on each bet is marked. Prices move fast, so check the book before you bet. Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Florida Atlantic vs. Tulsa?
All three ratings favor Tulsa, by 2.8 points. Tulsa's best matchup is their run game, 13th in EPA per rush, against Florida Atlantic's run defense at 135th. Florida Atlantic's way back in is their 3rd down offense, 8th in 3rd down conversion, against Tulsa's 3rd down defense at 68th.
Florida Atlantic with the ball
Tulsa with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026; CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Recent form
How have Florida Atlantic and Tulsa played lately?
Florida Atlantic
3–2 in the last five.
- W 60–29 vs. UTSA Week 10
- L 41–48 at North Texas Week 9
- W 51–49 vs. Rice Week 8
- L 24–56 at Army Week 7
- W 66–10 vs. Texas Southern Week 5
Tulsa
2–3 in the last five.
- W 60–10 at Tulane Week 10
- L 35–38 vs. Army Week 8
- W 38–17 at Rice Week 7
- L 26–34 at Navy Week 6
- L 44–45 vs. North Texas Week 5
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Florida Atlantic and Tulsa?
Florida Atlantic
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Tulsa
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Florida Atlantic and Tulsa compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Florida Atlantic and Tulsa are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
The players in charts
How Florida Atlantic's and Tulsa's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
RatingsTulsa 6–4
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Florida Atlantic and Tulsa?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Tulsa 1.2 points better (82nd to 90th). PRIME also has Tulsa ahead, by 0.3. Elo, which only sees results, also has Tulsa ahead (68th to 90th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Where the data comes from: SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update), last pulled Nov 2, 2026; PRIME (primecfb.com), updated Nov 9, 2026; Elo from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Opponent-adjustedTulsa 12–4
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Florida Atlantic's offense ranks 39th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Tulsa defense it faces ranks 37th in EPA per play allowed. Tulsa's offense ranks 37th against Florida Atlantic's 127th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Tulsa's offense against Florida Atlantic's defense. The biggest edge on the board is Tulsa's run game: 13th in adjusted EPA per rush, against Florida Atlantic's 135th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and Florida Atlantic's offense falls from 15th to 39th in EPA per play: a lot of that came against soft defenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
EPATulsa 5–3
Who's more efficient, Florida Atlantic or Tulsa?
Florida Atlantic is better throwing (12th in EPA per pass) than running (62nd). Tulsa's pass defense ranks 60th, so that's an edge. Tulsa is better running (15th in EPA per rush) than throwing (61st). Florida Atlantic's run defense ranks 136th, so that's a mismatch. On third down, Florida Atlantic has the edge: their offense ranks 4th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense they face ranks 68th.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
ScoringEven 1–1
Who scores more, Florida Atlantic or Tulsa?
Florida Atlantic outscores FBS opponents by 5.2 a game, and Tulsa by 10.3. Florida Atlantic's offense ranks 8th in scoring, and the Tulsa defense it faces ranks 51st in points allowed. Tulsa's offense ranks 34th against Florida Atlantic's 134th-ranked defense. Both offenses have the edge on the defenses they face.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
OffenseFlorida Atlantic 7–5
Which offense has the edge?
Florida Atlantic's best matchup is third downs: their offense ranks 8th in 3rd down conversion rate, and Tulsa's defense ranks 68th in 3rd down conversions allowed. That's a mismatch. Tulsa's best matchup is their run game: their offense ranks 50th in yards per carry, and Florida Atlantic's defense ranks 137th in yards per carry allowed. That's a mismatch.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
DefenseTulsa 11–0
Which defense has the edge?
Tulsa's defense is best placed to limit big plays: it ranks 42nd in explosive plays allowed, and Florida Atlantic's offense is middle of the pack in explosive play rate (98th).
What opponents managed against them.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
Up frontTulsa 10–2
Who wins up front?
Tulsa has the better number in 10 of 12. The biggest gap is power success allowed, where Tulsa ranks 24th and Florida Atlantic 100th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TurnoversTulsa 7–0
Who wins the turnover battle?
Tulsa is +1.3 in turnover margin a game and Florida Atlantic is +0.4. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 4-point edge for Tulsa. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it. Fumble recoveries are mostly luck, and Tulsa's takeaways lean on them (0.9 of 1.9 a game).
Per game, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TalentEven 5–5
Which team has more talent?
Tulsa has the more talented roster (84th in the 247Sports talent composite; Florida Atlantic is 98th). But Florida Atlantic plays further above their talent: +0.9 points of SP+ beyond what their roster predicts, to Tulsa's +0.3.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Where the data comes from: 247Sports, preseason; 247Sports talent composite against SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026); CollegeFootballData.com returning production, preseason; 247Sports recruiting rankings, via CollegeFootballData.com.
RECEIPTSFlorida Atlantic 3–2
Where did each team's wins come from?
Florida Atlantic is +1.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+1.3). Tulsa is +0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+1.2). Florida Atlantic's record is running 0.9 wins ahead of their play on luck alone, so they're not as good as the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Where the data comes from: our split of every game result, games through Nov 7, 2026, using SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026), the 247Sports talent composite and CollegeFootballData.com returning production.
The trip
How far is Florida Atlantic traveling?
It's Florida Atlantic's 5th road trip of the season. Counting this one, they'll have traveled 8,940 miles, there and back, 21st of 138 in FBS.
The transitive property
The shortest chain of real results this season that “proves” each team wins.
Florida Atlantic wins
38–30Week 2
34–26Week 6
Florida Atlantic beat Navy 38–30 in Week 2. Navy beat Tulsa 34–26 in Week 6.Tulsa wins
60–10Week 10
31–17Week 7
49–22Week 9
56–24Week 7Tulsa beat Tulane 60–10 in Week 10. Tulane beat Memphis 31–17 in Week 7. Memphis beat Army 49–22 in Week 9. Army beat Florida Atlantic 56–24 in Week 7.Each arrow in a chain is a win, with the score and the week. At a neutral site, both teams travel.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com schedules and results, games through Nov 7, 2026. Miles as the crow flies, campus to stadium.
FAQ
Florida Atlantic at Tulsa: questions people ask
Florida Atlantic vs. Tulsa prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Tulsa, 65% chance to win. SP+ and PRIME favor the same team. Tulsa's best matchup is their run game, 13th in EPA per rush, against Florida Atlantic's run defense at 135th.
Where can I watch Florida Atlantic vs. Tulsa, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 14, 3:30 PM ET at Chapman Stadium. It's on ESPN+.
What's the projected score of Florida Atlantic vs. Tulsa?
SP+ projects Tulsa 36–32. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for Florida Atlantic at Tulsa?
DraftKings has Tulsa −5.5, total 74.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the Florida Atlantic vs. Tulsa series history?
Florida Atlantic leads 4–1. Last meeting: Florida Atlantic won 40–21 in 2025.
Who are the players to watch in Florida Atlantic vs. Tulsa?
Florida Atlantic: Caden Veltkamp (2,828 passing yards), Leonard Farrow (485 rushing yards) and Easton Messer (1,035 receiving yards). Tulsa: Baylor Hayes (1,695 passing yards), Damari Alston (474 rushing yards) and Oran Singleton Jr. (712 receiving yards). Season totals through Nov 7, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Florida Atlantic at Tulsa?
Florida Atlantic's is Caden Veltkamp (2,828 passing yards this season); Tulsa's is Baylor Hayes (1,695 passing yards this season).
Keep going
- Florida Atlantic: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Tulsa: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Memphis at South Florida: the numbers' pick
- UAB at Temple: the numbers' pick
- East Carolina at Charlotte: the numbers' pick
- Tulane at Rice: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 11 pick
- The American Athletic: standings, stats and rankings
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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Numbers through the games of Nov 7, 2026. SP+ as of Nov 2, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Recent form
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.