Memphis vs. South Florida Prediction and Pick, Week 11 2026
The numbers sayMemphis57% chance to win
- Memphis' pass defense should win its matchup. Memphis is top-25 (18th) in EPA per pass allowed, and South Florida is bottom-20 (119th) in EPA per pass.
- Memphis' defense should get off the field on 3rd down. Memphis is top-25 (14th) in 3rd downs allowed, and South Florida is bottom-40 (94th) in 3rd down conversion.
Updated
Memphis at South Florida
Projected score: Memphis 31, South Florida 29 (total 60).SP+: Memphis by 2.3, 57% chance to win.PRIME: Memphis by 5.2.
- Kickoff
- Thu, Nov 12, 8:00 PM ET
- TV
- ESPN
- Where
- Raymond James Stadium
- Weather
- 71°, cloudy, wind 6 mph
- Line
- Memphis −4, total 49.5
- Line movement
- Opened Memphis −6; moved 2 points toward South Florida.
- Series
- Memphis leads 10–4
- Last meeting
- Memphis 34–31 in 2025
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Memphis by 2.3 | 57% | 60 |
| PRIME | Memphis by 5.2 | 64% | |
| Elo | South Florida | 50% | |
| The line | Memphis −4, opened −6 | 49.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Mon, Nov 9, 5:43 PM ET.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Memphis or South Florida?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
What do the sportsbooks say?
| Sportsbook | Memphis spread | South Florida spread | Over | Under | Memphis moneyline | South Florida moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | −4 −110 | +4 −110 | 49.5 −115 | 49.5 −105 | −192 | +160 |
| FanDuel | −4.5 −105 | +4.5 −115 | 50.5 −110 | 50.5 −110 (best price) | −172 (best price) | +142 |
| BetMGM | −4 −110 | +4 −108 | 50.5 −105 | 50.5 −112 | −175 | +150 |
| Caesars | −4.5 −109 | +4.5 −112 | 50.5 −105 | 50.5 −115 | −193 | +161 (best price) |
| ESPN BET | −3.5 −115 (best price) | +3.5 −105 | 49.5 −110 (best price) | 49.5 −110 | −185 | +155 |
| BetRivers | −4.5 −112 | +4.5 −112 | 50.5 −107 | 50.5 −115 | −200 | +155 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −4.5 −110 | +4.5 −110 (best price) | 50.5 −105 | 50.5 −115 | −200 | +155 |
| Fanatics | −4 −110 | +4 −110 | 50 −110 | 50 −110 | −190 | +155 |
Odds updated Mon., Nov. 9, 5:43 PM ET. The best price on each bet is marked. Prices move fast, so check the book before you bet. Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Memphis vs. South Florida?
PRIME take Memphis, but Elo has South Florida. Memphis' best matchup is their pass defense, 18th in EPA per pass allowed, against South Florida's passing game at 119th. South Florida's way back in is their run game, 68th in yards per carry, against Memphis' run defense at 128th.
Memphis with the ball
South Florida with the ball
South FloridaSouth FloridaEach row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026; CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Recent form
How have Memphis and South Florida played lately?
Memphis
4–1 in the last five. Won 2 straight.
- W 49–22 vs. Army Week 9
- W 41–34 vs. East Carolina Week 8
- L 17–31 at Tulane Week 7
- W 38–13 vs. UAB Week 6
- W 59–8 at Charlotte Week 5
South Florida
2–3 in the last five.
- L 17–20 at East Carolina Week 10
- W 30–10 vs. UAB Week 9
- W 29–2 vs. Kent State Week 7
- L 24–31 at UTSA Week 6
- L 13–17 vs. Temple Week 5
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Memphis and South Florida?
Memphis
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
South Florida
- Joshua Porter (WR), hasn't played since Week 7 (23 catches in 7 games before that)
- Michael Van Buren Jr. (QB), hasn't played since Week 6 (45 pass attempts in 4 games before that)
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Memphis and South Florida compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Memphis and South Florida are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
The players in charts
How Memphis' and South Florida's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
RatingsMemphis 7–3
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Memphis and South Florida?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Memphis 4.8 points better (46th to 63rd). PRIME also has Memphis ahead, by 7.7. Elo, which only sees results, also has Memphis ahead (36th to 40th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Where the data comes from: SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update), last pulled Nov 2, 2026; PRIME (primecfb.com), updated Nov 9, 2026; Elo from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Opponent-adjustedMemphis 10–6
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Memphis' offense ranks 30th in adjusted EPA per play, and the South Florida defense it faces ranks 44th in EPA per play allowed. South Florida's offense ranks 111th against Memphis' 59th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge. The biggest edge on the board is Memphis' efficiency: 26th in adjusted success rate, against South Florida's 72nd-ranked defense. Adjust for opponents and South Florida's offense falls from 77th to 111th in EPA per play: a lot of that came against soft defenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
EPAMemphis 6–2
Who's more efficient, Memphis or South Florida?
Memphis is better throwing (8th in EPA per pass) than running (45th). South Florida's pass defense ranks 50th, so that's an edge. South Florida is better running (56th in EPA per rush) than throwing (99th). Memphis' run defense ranks 120th, so that's a mismatch.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
ScoringEven 1–1
Who scores more, Memphis or South Florida?
Memphis outscores FBS opponents by 14.0 a game, and South Florida by 10.8. Memphis' offense ranks 14th in scoring, and the South Florida defense it faces ranks 10th in points allowed. South Florida's offense ranks 88th against Memphis' 59th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
OffenseMemphis 11–1
Which offense has the edge?
Memphis' best matchup is staying on schedule: their offense ranks 5th in success rate, and South Florida's defense ranks 57th in success rate allowed. South Florida's best matchup is their run game: their offense ranks 68th in yards per carry, and Memphis' defense ranks 128th in yards per carry allowed. That's a mismatch.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
DefenseSouth Florida 7–4
Which defense has the edge?
Memphis' defense is best placed to get off the field on third down: it ranks 14th in 3rd down conversions allowed, and South Florida's offense is middle of the pack in 3rd down conversion rate (94th). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
Up frontMemphis 7–5
Who wins up front?
Memphis has the better number in 7 of 12. The biggest gap is stuff rate (defense), where South Florida ranks 24th and Memphis 119th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TurnoversSouth Florida 5–2
Who wins the turnover battle?
Neither team has a real turnover edge: Memphis is +0.6 a game and South Florida +0.7. Fumble recoveries are mostly luck, and South Florida's takeaways lean on them (0.9 of 1.1 a game).
Per game, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TalentSouth Florida 7–4
Which team has more talent?
South Florida has the more talented roster (52nd in the 247Sports talent composite; Memphis is 67th). But Memphis plays further above their talent: +6.5 points of SP+ beyond what their roster predicts, to South Florida's −0.4.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Where the data comes from: 247Sports, preseason; 247Sports talent composite against SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026); CollegeFootballData.com returning production, preseason; 247Sports recruiting rankings, via CollegeFootballData.com.
RECEIPTSMemphis 3–2
Where did each team's wins come from?
Memphis is +2.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+1.6). South Florida is +1.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+2.0). South Florida's record is 0.8 wins worse than their play on bad luck, so they're better than the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Where the data comes from: our split of every game result, games through Nov 7, 2026, using SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026), the 247Sports talent composite and CollegeFootballData.com returning production.
The trip
How far is Memphis traveling?
It's Memphis' 5th road trip of the season. Counting this one, they'll have traveled 8,927 miles, there and back, 21st of 138 in FBS.
The transitive property
The shortest chain of real results this season that “proves” each team wins.
Memphis wins
41–34Week 8
20–17Week 10Memphis beat East Carolina 41–34 in Week 8. East Carolina beat South Florida 20–17 in Week 10.South Florida wins
28–24Week 2
20–17Week 6
31–17Week 7South Florida beat Army 28–24 in Week 2. Army beat Tulane 20–17 in Week 6. Tulane beat Memphis 31–17 in Week 7.Each arrow in a chain is a win, with the score and the week. At a neutral site, both teams travel.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com schedules and results, games through Nov 7, 2026. Miles as the crow flies, campus to stadium.
FAQ
Memphis at South Florida: questions people ask
Memphis vs. South Florida prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Memphis, 57% chance to win. PRIME has Memphis; Elo has South Florida. Memphis' best matchup is their pass defense, 18th in EPA per pass allowed, against South Florida's passing game at 119th.
Where can I watch Memphis vs. South Florida, and what time is it?
Thu, Nov 12, 8:00 PM ET at Raymond James Stadium. It's on ESPN.
What's the projected score of Memphis vs. South Florida?
SP+ projects Memphis 31–29. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for Memphis at South Florida?
DraftKings has Memphis −4, total 49.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the Memphis vs. South Florida series history?
Memphis leads 10–4. Last meeting: Memphis won 34–31 in 2025.
Who are the players to watch in Memphis vs. South Florida?
Memphis: Marcus Stokes (2,536 passing yards), Jaylin Carter (927 rushing yards) and Hunter Tipton (497 receiving yards). South Florida: Michael Van Buren Jr. (337 passing yards), D.J. Crowther (684 rushing yards) and Bryson Rodgers (399 receiving yards). Season totals through Nov 7, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Memphis at South Florida?
Memphis' is Marcus Stokes (2,536 passing yards this season); South Florida's is Michael Van Buren Jr. (337 passing yards this season).
Who's out for Memphis at South Florida?
South Florida: Joshua Porter (WR) hasn't played since Week 7; Michael Van Buren Jr. (QB) hasn't played since Week 6.
Keep going
- Memphis: every stat, rank and the schedule
- South Florida: every stat, rank and the schedule
- UAB at Temple: the numbers' pick
- East Carolina at Charlotte: the numbers' pick
- Tulane at Rice: the numbers' pick
- Florida Atlantic at Tulsa: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 11 pick
- The American Athletic: standings, stats and rankings
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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Numbers through the games of Nov 7, 2026. SP+ as of Nov 2, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Recent form
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.