Florida vs. Kentucky Prediction and Pick, Week 11 2026
The numbers sayKentucky60% chance to win
Updated
Florida at Kentucky
Projected score: Florida 26, Kentucky 31 (total 57).SP+: Kentucky by 4.9, 64% chance to win.PRIME: Kentucky by 3.3.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 14, 6:15 PM ET
- TV
- ESPN
- Where
- Kroger Field
- Weather
- 42°, cloudy, wind 7 mph
- Line
- Kentucky −3.5, total 52.5
- Line movement
- Opened Kentucky −1.5; moved 2 points toward Kentucky. Total opened 55.5, down 3.
- Series
- Florida leads 54–22
- Last meeting
- Kentucky 38–7 in 2025
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Kentucky by 4.9 | 64% | 57 |
| PRIME | Kentucky by 3.3 | 59% | |
| Elo | Kentucky | 56% | |
| The line | Kentucky −3.5, opened −1.5 | 52.5, opened 55.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Thu, Nov 12, 10:24 PM ET.
Projected vs. what happened
What we projected for Louisiana vs. UL Monroe, and what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Florida or Kentucky?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
What do the sportsbooks say?
| Sportsbook | Florida spread | Kentucky spread | Over | Under | Florida moneyline | Kentucky moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +3.5 −120 | −3.5 +100 | 52.5 −112 | 52.5 −108 | +140 | −166 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 −120 | −3.5 +100 | 52.5 −115 | 52.5 −105 | +128 | −152 (best price) |
| BetMGM | +3 −102 | −3 −118 | 52.5 −112 | 52.5 −105 | +135 | −160 |
| Caesars | +3.5 −115 (best price) | −3.5 −105 | 52.5 −113 | 52.5 −108 | +142 (best price) | −170 |
| ESPN BET | +3.5 −120 | −3.5 +100 | 53.5 −110 | 53.5 −110 (best price) | +140 | −165 |
| BetRivers | +3 −112 | −3 −112 | 52.5 −113 | 52.5 −110 | +135 | −167 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 +105 | −2.5 −130 (best price) | 52.5 −110 (best price) | 52.5 −110 | +135 | −165 |
| Fanatics | +3.5 −115 (best price) | −3.5 −105 | 53 −110 | 53 −110 | +140 | −170 |
Odds updated Thu., Nov. 12, 10:24 PM ET. The best price on each bet is marked. Prices move fast, so check the book before you bet. Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Florida vs. Kentucky?
All three ratings favor Kentucky, by 3.3 to 4.9 points. Kentucky's best matchup is their ball security, 9th in interceptions thrown per pass, against Florida's takeaway defense at 118th. Florida's way back in is their 3rd down offense, 49th in 3rd down conversion, against Kentucky's 3rd down defense at 132nd. We left out the edges built on Nic Anderson, who's out.
Florida with the ball
Kentucky with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026; CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 12, 2026.
Recent form
How have Florida and Kentucky played lately?
Florida
1–4 in the last five. Lost 2 straight.
- L 7–23 vs. Oklahoma Week 10
- L 8–27 vs. Georgia Week 9
- W 27–24 at Texas Week 7
- L 19–38 vs. South Carolina Week 6
- L 17–45 at Missouri Week 5
Kentucky
4–1 in the last five.
- L 6–34 at Tennessee Week 10
- W 34–17 vs. Vanderbilt Week 8
- W 21–13 at Oklahoma Week 7
- W 35–34 vs. LSU Week 6
- W 35–34 at South Carolina Week 5
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Florida and Kentucky?
Florida
- Vernell Brown III (WR), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Bryce Thornton (#1), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Jaden Robinson (LB), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Evan Chieca (#85), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Kofi Asare (#22), questionable (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- DK Kalu (#93), questionable (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
Kentucky
- Anderson (WR), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Antwan Smith (LB), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Jaden Smith (#24), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Grant Grayton (#30), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
How did Louisiana do without D'Wayne' Winfield?
With Winfield, Louisiana went 5–3 and won by 5.3 a game. Without him, this game included, they went 1–0 and won by 21.0 a game.
Where the data comes from. Scores and who played each game from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 12, 2026.
Chart data
| Week | Opponent | Score | Margin | Winfield played? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | at USC | 30–49 | −19.0 | Yes |
| 3 | vs. UAB | 21–14 | +7.0 | Yes |
| 4 | at Charlotte | 34–7 | +27.0 | Yes |
| 5 | vs. Arkansas State | 23–20 | +3.0 | Yes |
| 6 | at Louisiana Tech | 31–32 | −1.0 | Yes |
| 7 | vs. Troy | 33–6 | +27.0 | Yes |
| 8 | at Southern Miss | 31–35 | −4.0 | Yes |
| 10 | vs. South Alabama | 28–26 | +2.0 | Yes |
| 11 | at UL Monroe | 42–21 | +21.0 | No |
How did UL Monroe do without Aidan Armenta?
With Armenta, UL Monroe went 2–5 and lost by 17.6 a game. Without him, this game included, they went 0–2 and lost by 13.5 a game. Yards per play: 5.4 with him, 4.3 without.
Where the data comes from. Scores and who played each game from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 12, 2026.
Chart data
| Week | Opponent | Score | Margin | Armenta played? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | at Mississippi State | 13–62 | −49.0 | Yes |
| 2 | at UAB | 20–26 | −6.0 | No |
| 4 | vs. Florida Atlantic | 17–45 | −28.0 | Yes |
| 5 | at South Alabama | 35–52 | −17.0 | Yes |
| 7 | vs. Louisiana Tech | 0–24 | −24.0 | Yes |
| 8 | at Troy | 21–14 | +7.0 | Yes |
| 9 | vs. Southern Miss | 21–35 | −14.0 | Yes |
| 10 | at Arkansas State | 19–17 | +2.0 | Yes |
| 11 | vs. Louisiana | 21–42 | −21.0 | No |
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Florida and Kentucky compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Florida and Kentucky are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Nov 12, 2026.
The players in charts
How Florida's and Kentucky's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Nov 12, 2026.
RatingsKentucky 6–4
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Florida and Kentucky?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Kentucky 2.4 points better (41st to 47th). PRIME also has Kentucky ahead, by 0.8. Elo, which only sees results, has Florida ahead (50th to 51st).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Where the data comes from: SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update), last pulled Nov 11, 2026; PRIME (primecfb.com), updated Nov 11, 2026; Elo from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 12, 2026.
Opponent-adjustedKentucky 10–6
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Florida's offense ranks 22nd in adjusted EPA per play, and the Kentucky defense it faces ranks 35th in EPA per play allowed. Kentucky's offense ranks 31st against Florida's 60th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Kentucky's offense against Florida's defense. The biggest edge on the board is Kentucky's efficiency: 10th in adjusted success rate, against Florida's 79th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and Kentucky's offense climbs from 53rd to 31st in EPA per play: it has done its work against good defenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 12, 2026.
EPAEven 4–4
Who's more efficient, Florida or Kentucky?
Florida is better throwing (40th in EPA per pass) than running (74th). Kentucky's pass defense ranks 57th. Kentucky is better running (36th in EPA per rush) than throwing (80th). Florida's run defense ranks 57th. On third down, Florida has the edge: their offense ranks 41st in EPA per third-down play, and the defense they face ranks 114th.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 12, 2026.
ScoringEven 1–1
Who scores more, Florida or Kentucky?
Florida outscores FBS opponents by 4.8 a game, and Kentucky by 4.1. Florida's offense ranks 39th in scoring, and the Kentucky defense it faces ranks 77th in points allowed. Kentucky's offense ranks 57th against Florida's 97th-ranked defense. Both offenses have the edge on the defenses they face.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026.
OffenseEven 6–6
Which offense has the edge?
Florida's best matchup is third downs: their offense ranks 49th in 3rd down conversion rate, and Kentucky's defense ranks 132nd in 3rd down conversions allowed. That's a mismatch. Kentucky's best matchup is staying on schedule: their offense ranks 20th in success rate, and Florida's defense ranks 96th in success rate allowed. That's a mismatch.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026.
DefenseFlorida 7–4
Which defense has the edge?
Florida's defense is best placed to get home: it ranks 40th in sack rate, and Kentucky's offense is bottom-40 at avoiding sacks (99th). Kentucky's defense is best placed to pick off passes: it ranks 19th in interception rate, and Florida's offense is bottom-20 at avoiding interceptions (125th). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026.
Up frontKentucky 10–2
Who wins up front?
Kentucky has the better number in 10 of 12. The biggest gap is line yards per carry, where Kentucky ranks 32nd and Florida 121st.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026.
TurnoversKentucky 5–1
Who wins the turnover battle?
Kentucky is +1.1 in turnover margin a game and Florida is −0.3. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 7-point edge for Kentucky. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.
Per game, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026.
TalentFlorida 10–1
Which team has more talent?
Florida has the more talented roster (10th in the 247Sports talent composite; Kentucky is 23rd). But Kentucky plays further above their talent: +0.6 points of SP+ beyond what their roster predicts, to Florida's −8.1.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Where the data comes from: 247Sports, preseason; 247Sports talent composite against SP+ (last pulled Nov 11, 2026); CollegeFootballData.com returning production, preseason; 247Sports recruiting rankings, via CollegeFootballData.com.
MoneyKentucky 3–0
Which roster costs more?
Florida's roster is valued at $27.3M, Kentucky's at $24.6M. Dollar for dollar, Kentucky plays better: −1.1 points of SP+ above what their payroll predicts, to −5.8 for Florida.
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
Where the data comes from: The NIL Standard, preseason estimates; The NIL Standard's preseason roster values against this season's results.
RECEIPTSKentucky 4–1
Where did each team's wins come from?
Florida is +0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is roster (+1.7). Kentucky is +2.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is luck (+2.5). Kentucky's record is running 2.5 wins ahead of their play on luck alone, so they're not as good as the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Where the data comes from: our split of every game result, games through Nov 12, 2026, using SP+ (last pulled Nov 11, 2026), the 247Sports talent composite and CollegeFootballData.com returning production.
The trip
How far is Florida traveling?
It's Florida's 5th road trip of the season. Counting this one, they'll have traveled 5,908 miles, there and back, 64th of 138 in FBS.
The transitive property
The shortest chain of real results this season that “proves” each team wins.
Florida wins
27–24Week 7
20–17Week 4
34–6Week 10
Florida beat Texas 27–24 in Week 7. Texas beat Tennessee 20–17 in Week 4. Tennessee beat Kentucky 34–6 in Week 10.Kentucky wins
21–13Week 7
23–7Week 10Kentucky beat Oklahoma 21–13 in Week 7. Oklahoma beat Florida 23–7 in Week 10.Each arrow in a chain is a win, with the score and the week. At a neutral site, both teams travel.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com schedules and results, games through Nov 12, 2026. Miles as the crow flies, campus to stadium.
FAQ
Florida at Kentucky: questions people ask
Florida vs. Kentucky prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Kentucky, 60% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Kentucky's best matchup is their ball security, 9th in interceptions thrown per pass, against Florida's takeaway defense at 118th.
Where can I watch Florida vs. Kentucky, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 14, 6:15 PM ET at Kroger Field. It's on ESPN.
What's the projected score of Florida vs. Kentucky?
SP+ projects Kentucky 31–26. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for Florida at Kentucky?
DraftKings has Kentucky −3.5, total 52.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the Florida vs. Kentucky series history?
Florida leads 54–22. Last meeting: Kentucky won 38–7 in 2025.
Who are the players to watch in Florida vs. Kentucky?
Florida: Aaron Philo (1,367 passing yards), Jadan Baugh (836 rushing yards) and Dallas Wilson (465 receiving yards). Kentucky: Kenny Minchey (1,979 passing yards), CJ Baxter Jr. (541 rushing yards) and Kenny Darby (576 receiving yards). Season totals through Nov 12, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Florida at Kentucky?
Florida's is Aaron Philo (1,367 passing yards this season); Kentucky's is Kenny Minchey (1,979 passing yards this season).
Keep going
- Florida: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Kentucky: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Auburn at Mississippi State: the numbers' pick
- Alabama at Vanderbilt: the numbers' pick
- Tennessee at Texas A&M: the numbers' pick
- Missouri at Georgia: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 11 pick
- The SEC: standings, stats and rankings
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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Numbers through the games of Nov 12, 2026. SP+ as of Nov 11, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Recent form
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.