Kent State vs. Bowling Green Prediction and Pick, Week 11 2026
The numbers sayBowling Green79% chance to win
- Bowling Green's 3rd down defense has the edge on Kent State's 3rd down offense. Bowling Green is above average (36th) in 3rd downs allowed, and Kent State is bottom-40 (103rd) in 3rd down conversion.
- Bowling Green should get home. Bowling Green is top-25 (11th) in sack rate, and Kent State is middle of the pack (53rd) in sacks allowed per dropback.
Updated
Kent State at Bowling Green
Projected score: Kent State 19, Bowling Green 24 (total 43).SP+: Bowling Green by 5.6, 66% chance to win.PRIME: Bowling Green by 8.3.
- Kickoff
- Tue, Nov 10, 7:00 PM ET
- TV
- ESPNU
- Where
- Doyt L. Perry Stadium
- Weather
- 52°, clear, wind 7 mph
- Line
- Bowling Green −5.5, total 44.5
- Line movement
- Hasn't moved since it opened.
- Series
- Bowling Green leads 47–16
- Last meeting
- Kent State 24–21 in 2025
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Bowling Green by 5.6 | 66% | 43 |
| PRIME | Bowling Green by 8.3 | 72% | |
| Elo | Bowling Green | 85% | |
| The line | Bowling Green −5.5 | 44.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Tue, Nov 10, 7:59 AM ET.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Kent State or Bowling Green?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
What do the sportsbooks say?
| Sportsbook | Kent State spread | Bowling Green spread | Over | Under | Kent State moneyline | Bowling Green moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +5.5 −112 | −5.5 −108 | 44.5 −102 | 44.5 −118 | +180 (best price) | −218 |
| FanDuel | +5.5 −110 | −5.5 −110 | 44.5 −110 | 44.5 −110 (best price) | +172 | −210 |
| BetMGM | +5.5 −108 (best price) | −5.5 −110 | 44.5 −102 | 44.5 −118 | +175 | −210 |
| Caesars | +5.5 −112 | −5.5 −112 | 44 −108 | 44 −113 | +179 | −213 |
| ESPN BET | +5.5 −115 | −5.5 −105 | 43.5 −120 (best price) | 43.5 +100 | +170 | −200 |
| BetRivers | +4.5 −114 | −4.5 −109 (best price) | 44.5 −112 | 44.5 −112 | +150 | −190 (best price) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +4.5 −110 | −4.5 −110 | 44.5 −110 | 44.5 −110 (best price) | +150 | −190 (best price) |
| Fanatics | +5.5 −110 | −5.5 −110 | 44 −110 | 44 −110 | +175 | −215 |
Odds updated Tue., Nov. 10, 7:59 AM ET. The best price on each bet is marked. Prices move fast, so check the book before you bet. Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Kent State vs. Bowling Green?
All three ratings favor Bowling Green, by 8.3 points. Bowling Green's best matchup is their 3rd down defense, 36th in 3rd downs allowed, against Kent State's 3rd down offense at 103rd. Kent State's way back in is their run defense, 78th in yards per carry allowed, against Bowling Green's run game at 135th.
Kent State with the ball
Bowling Green with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026; CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Recent form
How have Kent State and Bowling Green played lately?
Kent State
1–4 in the last five.
- L 10–31 at Sacramento State Week 9
- W 35–20 vs. Akron Week 8
- L 2–29 at South Florida Week 7
- L 7–38 at Western Michigan Week 6
- L 10–13 vs. Ohio Week 5
Bowling Green
2–3 in the last five. Lost 3 straight.
- L 10–23 at Western Michigan Week 9
- L 24–31 at Buffalo Week 8
- L 31–32 vs. Ball State Week 7
- W 38–10 vs. Sacramento State Week 6
- W 24–20 at Miami (OH) Week 5
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Kent State and Bowling Green?
Kent State
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Bowling Green
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Kent State and Bowling Green compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Kent State and Bowling Green are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
The players in charts
How Kent State's and Bowling Green's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
RatingsBowling Green 7–3
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Kent State and Bowling Green?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Bowling Green 3.1 points better (130th to 132nd). PRIME also has Bowling Green ahead, by 5.8. Elo, which only sees results, also has Bowling Green ahead (118th to 137th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Where the data comes from: SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update), last pulled Nov 2, 2026; PRIME (primecfb.com), updated Nov 9, 2026; Elo from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Opponent-adjustedBowling Green 10–6
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Kent State's offense ranks 136th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Bowling Green defense it faces ranks 105th in EPA per play allowed. Bowling Green's offense ranks 119th against Kent State's 111th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge. The biggest edge on the board is Kent State's big plays: 85th in adjusted explosiveness, against Bowling Green's 129th-ranked defense. Adjust for opponents and Kent State's defense falls from 63rd to 111th in EPA per play allowed: a lot of that came against soft offenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
EPABowling Green 4–3
Who's more efficient, Kent State or Bowling Green?
Kent State is better throwing (106th in EPA per pass) than running (137th). Bowling Green's pass defense ranks 85th. Bowling Green is better throwing (77th in EPA per pass) than running (130th). Kent State's pass defense ranks 64th.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
ScoringBowling Green 2–0
Who scores more, Kent State or Bowling Green?
Kent State is outscored by 16.3 a game, and Bowling Green is outscored by 11.2. Kent State's offense ranks 137th in scoring, and the Bowling Green defense it faces ranks 105th in points allowed. Bowling Green's offense ranks 131st against Kent State's 114th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
OffenseBowling Green 9–3
Which offense has the edge?
Kent State has no clear edge here. Their best is yards per carry, 137th, against a defense ranked 136th in yards per carry allowed. Bowling Green has no clear edge here. Their best is success rate, 118th, against a defense ranked 114th in success rate allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
DefenseKent State 7–4
Which defense has the edge?
Kent State's defense is best placed to stop the run: it ranks 78th in yards per carry allowed, and Bowling Green's offense is bottom-20 in yards per carry (135th). Bowling Green's defense is best placed to get off the field on third down: it ranks 36th in 3rd down conversions allowed, and Kent State's offense is bottom-40 in 3rd down conversion rate (103rd). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
Up frontBowling Green 7–5
Who wins up front?
Bowling Green has the better number in 7 of 12. The biggest gap is power success (short yardage), where Bowling Green ranks 47th and Kent State 133rd.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TurnoversBowling Green 5–1
Who wins the turnover battle?
Bowling Green is −0.3 in turnover margin a game and Kent State is −0.9. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 3-point edge for Bowling Green. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it. Fumble recoveries are mostly luck, and Bowling Green's takeaways lean on them (0.9 of 1.1 a game).
Per game, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TalentBowling Green 7–3
Which team has more talent?
Bowling Green has the more talented roster (111th in the 247Sports talent composite; Kent State is 130th). Bowling Green also plays further above their talent: −12.3 points of SP+ beyond what their roster predicts, to Kent State's −12.5.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Where the data comes from: 247Sports, preseason; 247Sports talent composite against SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026); CollegeFootballData.com returning production, preseason; 247Sports recruiting rankings, via CollegeFootballData.com.
RECEIPTSKent State 4–1
Where did each team's wins come from?
Kent State is −1.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (−1.7). Bowling Green is −2.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (−1.8). Bowling Green's record is 1.1 wins worse than their play on bad luck, so they're better than the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Where the data comes from: our split of every game result, games through Nov 7, 2026, using SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026), the 247Sports talent composite and CollegeFootballData.com returning production.
The trip
How far is Kent State traveling?
It's Kent State's 6th road trip of the season. Counting this one, they'll have traveled 7,999 miles, there and back, 28th of 138 in FBS.
The transitive property
The shortest chain of real results this season that “proves” each team wins.
Kent State wins
26–13Week 4
32–31Week 7
Kent State beat Ball State 26–13 in Week 4. Ball State beat Bowling Green 32–31 in Week 7.Bowling Green wins
38–10Week 6
31–10Week 9Bowling Green beat Sacramento State 38–10 in Week 6. Sacramento State beat Kent State 31–10 in Week 9.Each arrow in a chain is a win, with the score and the week. At a neutral site, both teams travel.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com schedules and results, games through Nov 7, 2026. Miles as the crow flies, campus to stadium.
FAQ
Kent State at Bowling Green: questions people ask
Kent State vs. Bowling Green prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Bowling Green, 79% chance to win. SP+ and PRIME favor the same team. Bowling Green's best matchup is their 3rd down defense, 36th in 3rd downs allowed, against Kent State's 3rd down offense at 103rd.
Where can I watch Kent State vs. Bowling Green, and what time is it?
Tue, Nov 10, 7:00 PM ET at Doyt L. Perry Stadium. It's on ESPNU.
What's the projected score of Kent State vs. Bowling Green?
SP+ projects Bowling Green 24–19. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for Kent State at Bowling Green?
DraftKings has Bowling Green −5.5, total 44.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the Kent State vs. Bowling Green series history?
Bowling Green leads 47–16. Last meeting: Kent State won 24–21 in 2025.
Who are the players to watch in Kent State vs. Bowling Green?
Kent State: Dru Deshields (1,650 passing yards), Brandon White (268 rushing yards) and Wayne Harris (661 receiving yards). Bowling Green: Jay Kastantin (1,619 passing yards), Austyn Dendy (358 rushing yards) and Winn Sharp (336 receiving yards). Season totals through Nov 7, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Kent State at Bowling Green?
Kent State's is Dru Deshields (1,650 passing yards this season); Bowling Green's is Jay Kastantin (1,619 passing yards this season).
Keep going
- Kent State: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Bowling Green: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Western Michigan at Akron: the numbers' pick
- Ohio at Miami (OH): the numbers' pick
- Massachusetts at Toledo: the numbers' pick
- Sacramento State at Central Michigan: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 11 pick
- The Mid-American: standings, stats and rankings
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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Numbers through the games of Nov 7, 2026. SP+ as of Nov 2, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Recent form
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.