Sacramento State vs. Central Michigan Prediction, Week 11 2026
The numbers sayCentral Michigan85% chance to win
- Central Michigan's offensive line should win up front. Central Michigan is top-25 (24th) in line yards per carry, and Sacramento State is bottom-20 (131st) in line yards allowed per carry.
- Central Michigan's pass defense has the edge on Sacramento State's passing game. Central Michigan is above average (46th) in EPA per pass allowed, and Sacramento State is bottom-20 (136th) in EPA per pass.
Updated
Sacramento State at Central Michigan
Projected score: Sacramento State 14, Central Michigan 29 (total 43).SP+: Central Michigan by 14.9, 86% chance to win.PRIME: Central Michigan by 15.6.
- Kickoff
- Wed, Nov 11, 7:30 PM ET
- TV
- ESPNU
- Where
- Kelly/Shorts Stadium
- Weather
- 44°, wind 2 mph
- Line
- Central Michigan −18.5, total 43.5
- Line movement
- Opened Central Michigan −15.5; moved 3 points toward Central Michigan. Total opened 44.5, down 1.
- Series
- First meeting
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Central Michigan by 14.9 | 86% | 43 |
| PRIME | Central Michigan by 15.6 | 87% | |
| Elo | Central Michigan | 84% | |
| The line | Central Michigan −18.5, opened −15.5 | 43.5, opened 44.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Tue, Nov 10, 7:59 AM ET.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Sacramento State or Central Michigan?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
What do the sportsbooks say?
| Sportsbook | Sacramento State spread | Central Michigan spread | Over | Under | Sacramento State moneyline | Central Michigan moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +18.5 −115 | −18.5 −105 | 43.5 −115 | 43.5 −105 | +675 | −1050 |
| FanDuel | +17.5 −105 | −17.5 −115 | 43.5 −115 | 43.5 −105 | +760 (best price) | −1250 |
| BetMGM | +18 −110 | −18 −108 | 43.5 −115 | 43.5 −105 | +700 | −1000 (best price) |
| Caesars | +18 −114 | −18 −106 | 43.5 −110 (best price) | 43.5 −110 | +675 | −1000 (best price) |
| ESPN BET | +17.5 −110 | −17.5 −110 (best price) | 43.5 −115 | 43.5 −105 | +700 | −1200 |
| BetRivers | +18.5 −114 | −18.5 −109 | 43.5 −117 | 43.5 −107 | +700 | −1250 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +18.5 −110 (best price) | −18.5 −110 | 43.5 −115 | 43.5 −105 | +700 | −1300 |
| Fanatics | +18.5 −110 (best price) | −18.5 −110 | 44 −110 | 44 −110 (best price) | +700 | −1100 |
Odds updated Tue., Nov. 10, 7:59 AM ET. The best price on each bet is marked. Prices move fast, so check the book before you bet. Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Sacramento State vs. Central Michigan?
All three ratings favor Central Michigan, by 15.6 points, and it isn't close. Central Michigan's best matchup is their offensive line, 24th in line yards per carry, against Sacramento State's run-stopping front at 131st. Sacramento State's way back in is their early-down defense, 52nd in SUPLEX allowed, against Central Michigan's early-down offense at 125th.
Sacramento State with the ball
Central Michigan with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026; CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Recent form
How have Sacramento State and Central Michigan played lately?
Sacramento State
1–4 in the last five.
- L 17–20 vs. Toledo Week 10
- W 31–10 vs. Kent State Week 9
- L 17–34 at Ball State Week 8
- L 7–48 vs. Ohio Week 7
- L 10–38 at Bowling Green Week 6
Central Michigan
2–3 in the last five.
- W 35–7 vs. Eastern Michigan Week 10
- L 27–28 vs. Miami (OH) Week 8
- L 14–21 vs. Western Michigan Week 7
- L 14–31 at Ohio Week 6
- W 41–17 vs. Akron Week 5
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Sacramento State and Central Michigan?
Sacramento State
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Central Michigan
- Angel H Flores (RB), hasn't played since Week 7 (116 carries in 7 games before that)
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Sacramento State and Central Michigan compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Sacramento State and Central Michigan are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
The players in charts
How Sacramento State's and Central Michigan's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
RatingsCentral Michigan 9–1
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Sacramento State and Central Michigan?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Central Michigan 12.4 points better (127th to 138th). PRIME also has Central Michigan ahead, by 13.1. Elo, which only sees results, also has Central Michigan ahead (109th to 132nd).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Where the data comes from: SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update), last pulled Nov 2, 2026; PRIME (primecfb.com), updated Nov 9, 2026; Elo from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Opponent-adjustedCentral Michigan 13–3
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Sacramento State's offense ranks 137th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Central Michigan defense it faces ranks 94th in EPA per play allowed. Central Michigan's offense ranks 83rd against Sacramento State's 95th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge. The biggest edge on the board is Central Michigan's offensive line in the run game: 24th in adjusted line yards per carry, against Sacramento State's 131st-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and Sacramento State's defense falls from 53rd to 95th in EPA per play allowed: a lot of that came against soft offenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
EPAEven 4–4
Who's more efficient, Sacramento State or Central Michigan?
Sacramento State is about as good throwing (132nd in EPA per pass) as running (138th). Central Michigan is better running (17th in EPA per rush) than throwing (134th). Sacramento State's run defense ranks 57th, so that's an edge.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
ScoringCentral Michigan 2–0
Who scores more, Sacramento State or Central Michigan?
Sacramento State is outscored by 12.3 a game, and Central Michigan is outscored by 4.0. Sacramento State's offense ranks 133rd in scoring, and the Central Michigan defense it faces ranks 62nd in points allowed. Central Michigan's offense ranks 123rd against Sacramento State's 108th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
OffenseCentral Michigan 9–3
Which offense has the edge?
Sacramento State has no clear edge here. Their best is 3rd down conversion rate, 125th, against a defense ranked 129th in 3rd down conversions allowed. Central Michigan's best matchup is their run game: their offense ranks 64th in yards per carry, and Sacramento State's defense ranks 93rd in yards per carry allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
DefenseCentral Michigan 7–4
Which defense has the edge?
Sacramento State's defense is best placed to win on early downs: it ranks 52nd in SUPLEX allowed, and Central Michigan's offense is bottom-20 in SUPLEX (125th). That's a mismatch. Central Michigan's defense is best placed to limit big plays: it ranks 63rd in explosive plays allowed, and Sacramento State's offense is bottom-20 in explosive play rate (137th). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
Up frontCentral Michigan 8–4
Who wins up front?
Central Michigan has the better number in 8 of 12. The biggest gap is stuff rate (runs stopped at or behind the line), where Central Michigan ranks 14th and Sacramento State 137th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TurnoversCentral Michigan 7–0
Who wins the turnover battle?
Central Michigan is +0.4 in turnover margin a game and Sacramento State is −0.5. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 5-point edge for Central Michigan. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.
Per game, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TalentEven 3–3
Which team has more talent?
Sacramento State has the more talented roster (114th in the 247Sports talent composite; Central Michigan is 125th). But Central Michigan plays further above their talent: −9.0 points of SP+ beyond what their roster predicts, to Sacramento State's −22.7.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Where the data comes from: 247Sports, preseason; 247Sports talent composite against SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026); CollegeFootballData.com returning production, preseason; 247Sports recruiting rankings, via CollegeFootballData.com.
RECEIPTSCentral Michigan 3–1
Where did each team's wins come from?
Sacramento State is −3.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (−4.3). Central Michigan is −0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (−1.7). Central Michigan's record is running 0.9 wins ahead of their play on luck alone, so they're not as good as the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Where the data comes from: our split of every game result, games through Nov 7, 2026, using SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026), the 247Sports talent composite and CollegeFootballData.com returning production.
The trip
How far is Sacramento State traveling?
It's Sacramento State's 5th road trip of the season. Counting this one, they'll have traveled 15,943 miles, there and back, 3rd of 138 in FBS.
The transitive property
The shortest chain of real results this season that “proves” each team wins.
Sacramento State wins
31–10Week 9
26–13Week 4
32–31Week 7
24–20Week 5
28–27Week 8
Sacramento State beat Kent State 31–10 in Week 9. Kent State beat Ball State 26–13 in Week 4. Ball State beat Bowling Green 32–31 in Week 7. Bowling Green beat Miami (OH) 24–20 in Week 5. Miami (OH) beat Central Michigan 28–27 in Week 8.Central Michigan wins
35–7Week 10
28–17Week 1Central Michigan beat Eastern Michigan 35–7 in Week 10. Eastern Michigan beat Sacramento State 28–17 in Week 1.Each arrow in a chain is a win, with the score and the week. At a neutral site, both teams travel.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com schedules and results, games through Nov 7, 2026. Miles as the crow flies, campus to stadium.
FAQ
Sacramento State at Central Michigan: questions people ask
Sacramento State vs. Central Michigan prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Central Michigan, 85% chance to win. SP+ and PRIME favor the same team. Central Michigan's best matchup is their offensive line, 24th in line yards per carry, against Sacramento State's run-stopping front at 131st.
Where can I watch Sacramento State vs. Central Michigan, and what time is it?
Wed, Nov 11, 7:30 PM ET at Kelly/Shorts Stadium. It's on ESPNU.
What's the projected score of Sacramento State vs. Central Michigan?
SP+ projects Central Michigan 29–14. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for Sacramento State at Central Michigan?
DraftKings has Central Michigan −18.5, total 43.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the Sacramento State vs. Central Michigan series history?
This is the first meeting.
Who are the players to watch in Sacramento State vs. Central Michigan?
Sacramento State: Jackson Sharman (1,500 passing yards), Isaiah Ene (411 rushing yards) and Matthew Coleman (538 receiving yards). Central Michigan: Jadyn Glasser (640 passing yards), Jayden Clerveaux (291 rushing yards) and Langston Lewis (379 receiving yards). Season totals through Nov 7, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Sacramento State at Central Michigan?
Sacramento State's is Jackson Sharman (1,500 passing yards this season); Central Michigan's is Jadyn Glasser (640 passing yards this season).
Who's out for Sacramento State at Central Michigan?
Central Michigan: Angel H Flores (RB) hasn't played since Week 7.
Keep going
- Sacramento State: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Central Michigan: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Kent State at Bowling Green: the numbers' pick
- Western Michigan at Akron: the numbers' pick
- Ohio at Miami (OH): the numbers' pick
- Massachusetts at Toledo: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 11 pick
- The Mid-American: standings, stats and rankings
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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Numbers through the games of Nov 7, 2026. SP+ as of Nov 2, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Recent form
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.