Ohio vs. Miami (OH) Prediction and Pick, Week 11 2026
The numbers sayOhio58% chance to win
- Ohio should stay on the field on 3rd down. Ohio is top-25 (20th) in 3rd down conversion, and Miami (OH) is bottom-40 (105th) in 3rd downs allowed.
- Ohio's passing game has the edge on Miami (OH)'s pass defense. Ohio is middle of the pack (55th) in EPA per pass, and Miami (OH) is bottom-20 (121st) in EPA per pass allowed.
Updated
Ohio at Miami (OH)
Projected score: Ohio 24, Miami (OH) 24 (total 48).SP+: a coin flip.PRIME: Ohio by 1.5.
- Rivalry
- Battle of the Bricks
- Kickoff
- Tue, Nov 10, 8:00 PM ET
- TV
- ESPN2
- Where
- Yager Stadium
- Weather
- 52°, clear, wind 5 mph
- Line
- Ohio −1.5, total 46.5
- Line movement
- Opened Miami (OH) −1.5; moved 3 points toward Ohio. Total opened 47.5, down 1.
- Series
- Miami (OH) leads 33–30–1
- Last meeting
- Ohio 24–20 in 2025
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Ohio by 0.2 | 51% | 48 |
| PRIME | Ohio by 1.5 | 54% | |
| Elo | Ohio | 62% | |
| The line | Ohio −1.5, opened Miami (OH) −1.5 | 46.5, opened 47.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Tue, Nov 10, 7:59 AM ET.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Ohio or Miami (OH)?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
What do the sportsbooks say?
| Sportsbook | Ohio spread | Miami (OH) spread | Over | Under | Ohio moneyline | Miami (OH) moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | −1.5 −108 | +1.5 −112 | 46.5 −115 | 46.5 −105 (best price) | −118 | −102 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 −105 | +1.5 −115 | 46.5 −115 | 46.5 −105 (best price) | −113 (best price) | −106 |
| BetMGM | −1 −110 (best price) | +1 −108 | 46.5 −112 | 46.5 −105 (best price) | −118 | −102 |
| Caesars | −1.5 −110 | +1.5 −110 (best price) | 46.5 −113 | 46.5 −108 | −120 | +100 (best price) |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 −110 | +1.5 −110 (best price) | 45.5 −115 (best price) | 45.5 −105 | −120 | +100 (best price) |
| BetRivers | −1 −113 | +1 −110 | 46.5 −114 | 46.5 −109 | −118 | −105 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 −105 | +1.5 −115 | 46.5 −110 | 46.5 −110 | −120 | −105 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 −110 | +1.5 −110 (best price) | 46.5 −110 | 46.5 −110 | −120 | +100 (best price) |
Odds updated Tue., Nov. 10, 7:59 AM ET. The best price on each bet is marked. Prices move fast, so check the book before you bet. Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Ohio vs. Miami (OH)?
All three ratings favor Ohio, by 1.5 points. Ohio's best matchup is their 3rd down offense, 20th in 3rd down conversion, against Miami (OH)'s 3rd down defense at 105th. Miami (OH)'s way back in is their run game, 31st in EPA per rush, against Ohio's run defense at 77th.
Ohio with the ball
Miami (OH) with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026; CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Recent form
How have Ohio and Miami (OH) played lately?
Ohio
5–0 in the last five. Won 5 straight.
- W 28–20 at Akron Week 10
- W 24–20 vs. Eastern Michigan Week 8
- W 48–7 at Sacramento State Week 7
- W 31–14 vs. Central Michigan Week 6
- W 13–10 at Kent State Week 5
Miami (OH)
3–2 in the last five.
- L 31–34 vs. Buffalo Week 10
- W 28–27 at Central Michigan Week 8
- W 34–14 vs. Akron Week 7
- W 20–19 at Massachusetts Week 6
- L 20–24 vs. Bowling Green Week 5
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Ohio and Miami (OH)?
Ohio
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Miami (OH)
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Ohio and Miami (OH) compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Ohio and Miami (OH) are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
The players in charts
How Ohio's and Miami (OH)'s players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
RatingsOhio 9–1
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Ohio and Miami (OH)?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Ohio 2.7 points better (78th to 92nd). PRIME also has Ohio ahead, by 4.0. Elo, which only sees results, also has Ohio ahead (87th to 115th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Where the data comes from: SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update), last pulled Nov 2, 2026; PRIME (primecfb.com), updated Nov 9, 2026; Elo from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Opponent-adjustedOhio 9–7
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Ohio's offense ranks 60th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Miami (OH) defense it faces ranks 103rd in EPA per play allowed. Miami (OH)'s offense ranks 80th against Ohio's 82nd-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Ohio's offense against Miami (OH)'s defense. The biggest edge on the board is Miami (OH)'s big plays: 20th in adjusted explosiveness, against Ohio's 92nd-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and Miami (OH)'s defense falls from 68th to 103rd in EPA per play allowed: a lot of that came against soft offenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
EPAOhio 6–2
Who's more efficient, Ohio or Miami (OH)?
Ohio is better running (31st in EPA per rush) than throwing (47th). Miami (OH)'s run defense ranks 42nd. Miami (OH) is better running (22nd in EPA per rush) than throwing (61st). Ohio's run defense ranks 72nd, so that's an edge. On third down, Ohio has the edge: their offense ranks 52nd in EPA per third-down play, and the defense they face ranks 112th.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
ScoringOhio 2–0
Who scores more, Ohio or Miami (OH)?
Ohio outscores FBS opponents by 7.7 a game, and Miami (OH) by 0.7. Ohio's offense ranks 58th in scoring, and the Miami (OH) defense it faces ranks 87th in points allowed. Miami (OH)'s offense ranks 73rd against Ohio's 43rd-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Ohio's offense against Miami (OH)'s defense.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
OffenseOhio 8–4
Which offense has the edge?
Ohio's best matchup is third downs: their offense ranks 20th in 3rd down conversion rate, and Miami (OH)'s defense ranks 105th in 3rd down conversions allowed. That's a mismatch. Miami (OH) has no clear edge here. Their best is yards per carry, 46th, against a defense ranked 69th in yards per carry allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
DefenseMiami (OH) 6–5
Which defense has the edge?
Ohio's defense is best placed to get home: it ranks 59th in sack rate, and Miami (OH)'s offense is bottom-20 at avoiding sacks (131st). That's a mismatch. Miami (OH)'s defense is best placed to limit big plays: it ranks 25th in explosive plays allowed, and Ohio's offense is middle of the pack in explosive play rate (66th).
What opponents managed against them.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
Up frontOhio 8–4
Who wins up front?
Ohio has the better number in 8 of 12. The biggest gap is front-seven havoc, where Ohio ranks 25th and Miami (OH) 114th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TurnoversMiami (OH) 5–1
Who wins the turnover battle?
Miami (OH) is +0.3 in turnover margin a game and Ohio is −0.3. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 3-point edge for Miami (OH). Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.
Per game, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TalentEven 5–5
Which team has more talent?
Miami (OH) has the more talented roster (86th in the 247Sports talent composite; Ohio is 129th). But Ohio plays further above their talent: +7.3 points of SP+ beyond what their roster predicts, to Miami (OH)'s −1.6.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Where the data comes from: 247Sports, preseason; 247Sports talent composite against SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026); CollegeFootballData.com returning production, preseason; 247Sports recruiting rankings, via CollegeFootballData.com.
RECEIPTSOhio 4–1
Where did each team's wins come from?
Ohio is +2.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+2.7). Miami (OH) is +0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+1.9).
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Where the data comes from: our split of every game result, games through Nov 7, 2026, using SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026), the 247Sports talent composite and CollegeFootballData.com returning production.
The trip
How far is Ohio traveling?
It's Ohio's 6th road trip of the season. Counting this one, they'll have traveled 7,924 miles, there and back, 28th of 138 in FBS.
The transitive property
The shortest chain of real results this season that “proves” each team wins.
Ohio wins
29–27Week 2
27–24Week 7
33–20Week 2
34–31Week 10
Ohio beat Jacksonville State 29–27 in Week 2. Jacksonville State beat Florida International 27–24 in Week 7. Florida International beat Buffalo 33–20 in Week 2. Buffalo beat Miami (OH) 34–31 in Week 10.Miami (OH) wins
24–21Week 4
48–20Week 3
35–31Week 8
28–26Week 10
41–36Week 3Miami (OH) beat UConn 24–21 in Week 4. UConn beat Southern Miss 48–20 in Week 3. Southern Miss beat Louisiana 35–31 in Week 8. Louisiana beat South Alabama 28–26 in Week 10. South Alabama beat Ohio 41–36 in Week 3.Each arrow in a chain is a win, with the score and the week. At a neutral site, both teams travel.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com schedules and results, games through Nov 7, 2026. Miles as the crow flies, campus to stadium.
FAQ
Ohio at Miami (OH): questions people ask
Ohio vs. Miami (OH) prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Ohio, 58% chance to win. SP+ and PRIME favor the same team. Ohio's best matchup is their 3rd down offense, 20th in 3rd down conversion, against Miami (OH)'s 3rd down defense at 105th.
Where can I watch Ohio vs. Miami (OH), and what time is it?
Tue, Nov 10, 8:00 PM ET at Yager Stadium. It's on ESPN2.
What's the projected score of Ohio vs. Miami (OH)?
SP+ projects Ohio 24–24. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for Ohio at Miami (OH)?
DraftKings has Ohio −1.5, total 46.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the Ohio vs. Miami (OH) series history?
Miami (OH) leads 33–30–1. Last meeting: Ohio won 24–20 in 2025.
Who are the players to watch in Ohio vs. Miami (OH)?
Ohio: Nick Poulos (980 passing yards), Duncan Brune (445 rushing yards) and Riley Neer (550 receiving yards). Miami (OH): David McComb (1,120 passing yards), Rodney Nelson (435 rushing yards) and Maleek Huggins (473 receiving yards). Season totals through Nov 7, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Ohio at Miami (OH)?
Ohio's is Nick Poulos (980 passing yards this season); Miami (OH)'s is David McComb (1,120 passing yards this season).
Keep going
- Ohio: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Miami (OH): every stat, rank and the schedule
- Kent State at Bowling Green: the numbers' pick
- Western Michigan at Akron: the numbers' pick
- Massachusetts at Toledo: the numbers' pick
- Sacramento State at Central Michigan: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 11 pick
- The Mid-American: standings, stats and rankings
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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Numbers through the games of Nov 7, 2026. SP+ as of Nov 2, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Recent form
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.