Massachusetts vs. Toledo Prediction and Pick, Week 11 2026
The numbers sayToledo84% chance to win
- Toledo's 3rd down defense has the edge on Massachusetts' 3rd down offense. Toledo is above average (34th) in 3rd downs allowed, and Massachusetts is bottom-20 (123rd) in 3rd down conversion.
- Toledo's offensive line has the edge on Massachusetts' run-stopping front. Toledo is above average (43rd) in line yards per carry, and Massachusetts is bottom-20 (122nd) in line yards allowed per carry.
Updated
Massachusetts at Toledo
Projected score: Massachusetts 17, Toledo 33 (total 50).SP+: Toledo by 15.6, 87% chance to win.PRIME: Toledo by 9.4.
- Kickoff
- Wed, Nov 11, 7:30 PM ET
- TV
- CBSSN
- Where
- Glass Bowl
- Weather
- 45°, cloudy, wind 4 mph
- Line
- Toledo −14.5, total 52.5
- Line movement
- Opened Toledo −14; moved 0.5 points toward Toledo. Total opened 53.5, down 1.
- Series
- Toledo leads 8–1
- Last meeting
- Toledo 38–23 in 2024
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Toledo by 15.6 | 87% | 50 |
| PRIME | Toledo by 9.4 | 75% | |
| Elo | Toledo | 94% | |
| The line | Toledo −14.5, opened −14 | 52.5, opened 53.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Tue, Nov 10, 7:59 AM ET.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Massachusetts or Toledo?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
What do the sportsbooks say?
| Sportsbook | Massachusetts spread | Toledo spread | Over | Under | Massachusetts moneyline | Toledo moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +14.5 −112 | −14.5 −108 | 52.5 −105 | 52.5 −115 (best price) | +455 | −625 |
| FanDuel | +14.5 −115 | −14.5 −105 | 51.5 −110 (best price) | 51.5 −110 | +450 | −600 (best price) |
| BetMGM | +14 −105 | −14 −112 (best price) | 51.5 −115 | 51.5 −102 | +475 | −625 |
| Caesars | +14.5 −114 | −14.5 −106 | 52 −110 | 52 −109 | +450 | −625 |
| ESPN BET | +14.5 −110 (best price) | −14.5 −110 | 51.5 −115 | 51.5 −105 | +500 (best price) | −800 |
| BetRivers | +14.5 −112 | −14.5 −112 | 52.5 −107 | 52.5 −117 | +460 | −715 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +14.5 −110 (best price) | −14.5 −110 | 51.5 −115 | 51.5 −105 | +450 | −700 |
| Fanatics | +14.5 −115 | −14.5 −105 | 52 −110 | 52 −110 | +475 | −650 |
Odds updated Tue., Nov. 10, 7:59 AM ET. The best price on each bet is marked. Prices move fast, so check the book before you bet. Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Massachusetts vs. Toledo?
All three ratings favor Toledo, by 9.4 points, and it isn't close. Toledo's best matchup is their 3rd down defense, 34th in 3rd downs allowed, against Massachusetts' 3rd down offense at 123rd. Massachusetts' way back in is their ball security, 25th in interceptions thrown per pass, against Toledo's takeaway defense at 101st.
Massachusetts with the ball
Toledo with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026; CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Recent form
How have Massachusetts and Toledo played lately?
Massachusetts
1–4 in the last five.
- W 31–30 vs. Ball State Week 10
- L 16–35 at UConn Week 8
- L 18–25 at Buffalo Week 7
- L 19–20 vs. Miami (OH) Week 6
- L 14–38 vs. Eastern Michigan Week 5
Toledo
4–1 in the last five. Won 3 straight.
- W 20–17 at Sacramento State Week 10
- W 45–38 vs. Western Michigan Week 8
- W 34–14 at Eastern Michigan Week 7
- L 8–23 vs. Buffalo Week 6
- W 39–24 at Ball State Week 5
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Massachusetts and Toledo?
Massachusetts
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Toledo
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Massachusetts and Toledo compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Massachusetts and Toledo are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
The players in charts
How Massachusetts' and Toledo's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
RatingsToledo 9–1
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Massachusetts and Toledo?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Toledo 13.1 points better (64th to 113th). PRIME also has Toledo ahead, by 6.9. Elo, which only sees results, also has Toledo ahead (57th to 128th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Where the data comes from: SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update), last pulled Nov 2, 2026; PRIME (primecfb.com), updated Nov 9, 2026; Elo from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Opponent-adjustedToledo 13–3
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Massachusetts' offense ranks 85th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Toledo defense it faces ranks 42nd in EPA per play allowed. Toledo's offense ranks 59th against Massachusetts' 89th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Toledo's offense against Massachusetts' defense. The biggest edge on the board is Toledo's offensive line in the run game: 43rd in adjusted line yards per carry, against Massachusetts' 122nd-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and Massachusetts' defense falls from 30th to 89th in EPA per play allowed: a lot of that came against soft offenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
EPAToledo 6–2
Who's more efficient, Massachusetts or Toledo?
Massachusetts is about as good throwing (53rd in EPA per pass) as running (53rd). Toledo is better throwing (30th in EPA per pass) than running (83rd). Massachusetts' pass defense ranks 22nd, so that's strength on strength.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
ScoringEven 1–1
Who scores more, Massachusetts or Toledo?
Massachusetts outscores FBS opponents by 4.9 a game, and Toledo by 11.0. Massachusetts' offense ranks 76th in scoring, and the Toledo defense it faces ranks 67th in points allowed. Toledo's offense ranks 22nd against Massachusetts' 49th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Toledo's offense against Massachusetts' defense.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
OffenseToledo 10–2
Which offense has the edge?
Massachusetts has no clear edge here. Their best is yards per carry, 75th, against a defense ranked 34th in yards per carry allowed. Toledo has no clear edge here. Their best is 3rd down conversion rate, 41st, against a defense ranked 56th in 3rd down conversions allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
DefenseToledo 8–3
Which defense has the edge?
Massachusetts' defense is best placed to win on early downs: it ranks 23rd in SUPLEX allowed, and Toledo's offense is middle of the pack in SUPLEX (51st). Toledo's defense is best placed to get off the field on third down: it ranks 34th in 3rd down conversions allowed, and Massachusetts' offense is bottom-20 in 3rd down conversion rate (123rd). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
Up frontToledo 11–1
Who wins up front?
Toledo has the better number in 11 of 12. The biggest gap is big Uglies: defensive front, where Toledo ranks 9th and Massachusetts 96th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TurnoversMassachusetts 6–1
Who wins the turnover battle?
Massachusetts is +0.6 in turnover margin a game and Toledo is +0.1. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 2-point edge for Massachusetts. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it. Fumble recoveries are mostly luck, and Toledo's takeaways lean on them (0.8 of 1.3 a game).
Per game, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TalentToledo 6–4
Which team has more talent?
Toledo has the more talented roster (116th in the 247Sports talent composite; Massachusetts is 128th). Toledo also plays further above their talent: +8.7 points of SP+ beyond what their roster predicts, to Massachusetts' −2.5.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Where the data comes from: 247Sports, preseason; 247Sports talent composite against SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026); CollegeFootballData.com returning production, preseason; 247Sports recruiting rankings, via CollegeFootballData.com.
RECEIPTSToledo 5–0
Where did each team's wins come from?
Massachusetts is +0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+2.8). Toledo is +2.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+2.8).
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Where the data comes from: our split of every game result, games through Nov 7, 2026, using SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026), the 247Sports talent composite and CollegeFootballData.com returning production.
The trip
How far is Massachusetts traveling?
It's Massachusetts' 5th road trip of the season. Counting this one, they'll have traveled 7,289 miles, there and back, 39th of 138 in FBS.
The transitive property
The shortest chain of real results this season that “proves” each team wins.
Massachusetts wins
37–21Week 1
37–30Week 7
34–29Week 10
24–17Week 5
38–37Week 6
30–20Week 1
Massachusetts beat Rutgers 37–21 in Week 1. Rutgers beat Maryland 37–30 in Week 7. Maryland beat Purdue 34–29 in Week 10. Purdue beat Illinois 24–17 in Week 5. Illinois beat Michigan State 38–37 in Week 6. Michigan State beat Toledo 30–20 in Week 1.Toledo wins
34–14Week 7
38–14Week 5Toledo beat Eastern Michigan 34–14 in Week 7. Eastern Michigan beat Massachusetts 38–14 in Week 5.Each arrow in a chain is a win, with the score and the week. At a neutral site, both teams travel.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com schedules and results, games through Nov 7, 2026. Miles as the crow flies, campus to stadium.
FAQ
Massachusetts at Toledo: questions people ask
Massachusetts vs. Toledo prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Toledo, 84% chance to win. SP+ and PRIME favor the same team. Toledo's best matchup is their 3rd down defense, 34th in 3rd downs allowed, against Massachusetts' 3rd down offense at 123rd.
Where can I watch Massachusetts vs. Toledo, and what time is it?
Wed, Nov 11, 7:30 PM ET at Glass Bowl. It's on CBSSN.
What's the projected score of Massachusetts vs. Toledo?
SP+ projects Toledo 33–17. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for Massachusetts at Toledo?
DraftKings has Toledo −14.5, total 52.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the Massachusetts vs. Toledo series history?
Toledo leads 8–1. Last meeting: Toledo won 38–23 in 2024.
Who are the players to watch in Massachusetts vs. Toledo?
Massachusetts: William Watson III (1,333 passing yards), Elijah Faulkner (402 rushing yards) and Ty Harding (401 receiving yards). Toledo: John Alan Richter (2,334 passing yards), CJ Miller (744 rushing yards) and Adjatay Dabbs (600 receiving yards). Season totals through Nov 7, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Massachusetts at Toledo?
Massachusetts' is William Watson III (1,333 passing yards this season); Toledo's is John Alan Richter (2,334 passing yards this season).
Keep going
- Massachusetts: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Toledo: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Kent State at Bowling Green: the numbers' pick
- Western Michigan at Akron: the numbers' pick
- Ohio at Miami (OH): the numbers' pick
- Sacramento State at Central Michigan: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 11 pick
- The Mid-American: standings, stats and rankings
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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Numbers through the games of Nov 7, 2026. SP+ as of Nov 2, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Recent form
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.