Western Michigan vs. Akron Prediction and Pick, Week 11 2026
The numbers sayWestern Michigan89% chance to win
- Western Michigan's defense should hold up. Western Michigan is top-25 (23rd) in points allowed, and Akron is bottom-20 (129th) in points per game.
Updated
Western Michigan at Akron
Projected score: Western Michigan 34, Akron 14 (total 49).SP+: Western Michigan by 19.9, 92% chance to win.PRIME: Western Michigan by 12.3.
- Kickoff
- Tue, Nov 10, 7:00 PM ET
- TV
- CBSSN
- Where
- InfoCision Stadium
- Weather
- 49°, clear, wind 6 mph
- Line
- Western Michigan −14, total 48.5
- Line movement
- Opened Western Michigan −13.5; moved 0.5 points toward Western Michigan. Total opened 47.5, up 1.
- Series
- Western Michigan leads 16–4
- Last meeting
- Western Michigan 34–24 in 2024
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Western Michigan by 19.9 | 92% | 49 |
| PRIME | Western Michigan by 12.3 | 81% | |
| Elo | Western Michigan | 96% | |
| The line | Western Michigan −14, opened −13.5 | 48.5, opened 47.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Tue, Nov 10, 7:59 AM ET.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Western Michigan or Akron?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
What do the sportsbooks say?
| Sportsbook | Western Michigan spread | Akron spread | Over | Under | Western Michigan moneyline | Akron moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | −14 −112 | +14 −108 | 48.5 −105 | 48.5 −115 | −625 (best price) | +455 |
| FanDuel | −14.5 −105 | +14.5 −115 (best price) | 47.5 −115 (best price) | 47.5 −105 | −690 | +500 (best price) |
| BetMGM | −14 −110 (best price) | +14 −108 | 48.5 −105 | 48.5 −115 | −625 (best price) | +475 |
| Caesars | −14 −112 | +14 −108 | 48.5 −106 | 48.5 −114 | −625 (best price) | +450 |
| ESPN BET | −14.5 −105 | +14.5 −115 (best price) | 48.5 −105 | 48.5 −115 | −800 | +500 (best price) |
| BetRivers | −14 −115 | +14 −108 | 48.5 −108 | 48.5 −114 | −670 | +450 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −14.5 −105 | +14.5 −115 (best price) | 48.5 −110 | 48.5 −115 | −650 | +450 |
| Fanatics | −14.5 −105 | +14.5 −115 (best price) | 48.5 −110 | 48.5 −110 (best price) | −650 | +475 |
Odds updated Tue., Nov. 10, 7:59 AM ET. The best price on each bet is marked. Prices move fast, so check the book before you bet. Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Western Michigan vs. Akron?
All three ratings favor Western Michigan, by 12.3 points, and it isn't close. Western Michigan's best matchup is their scoring defense, 23rd in points allowed, against Akron's scoring offense at 129th. Akron's way back in is their offensive line, 40th in line yards per carry, against Western Michigan's run-stopping front at 94th.
Western Michigan with the ball
Akron with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026; CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Recent form
How have Western Michigan and Akron played lately?
Western Michigan
4–1 in the last five.
- W 23–10 vs. Bowling Green Week 9
- L 38–45 at Toledo Week 8
- W 21–14 at Central Michigan Week 7
- W 38–7 vs. Kent State Week 6
- W 20–17 at Buffalo Week 5
Akron
0–5 in the last five. Lost 5 straight.
- L 20–28 vs. Ohio Week 10
- L 20–35 at Kent State Week 8
- L 14–34 at Miami (OH) Week 7
- L 23–25 vs. Eastern Michigan Week 6
- L 17–41 at Central Michigan Week 5
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Western Michigan and Akron?
Western Michigan
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Akron
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Western Michigan and Akron compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Western Michigan and Akron are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
The players in charts
How Western Michigan's and Akron's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
RatingsWestern Michigan 10–0
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Western Michigan and Akron?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Western Michigan 22.4 points better (86th to 135th). PRIME also has Western Michigan ahead, by 14.8. Elo, which only sees results, also has Western Michigan ahead (70th to 138th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Where the data comes from: SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update), last pulled Nov 2, 2026; PRIME (primecfb.com), updated Nov 9, 2026; Elo from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Opponent-adjustedWestern Michigan 14–2
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Western Michigan's offense ranks 81st in adjusted EPA per play, and the Akron defense it faces ranks 137th in EPA per play allowed. Akron's offense ranks 113th against Western Michigan's 64th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Western Michigan's offense against Akron's defense. The biggest edge on the board is Western Michigan's big plays: 28th in adjusted explosiveness, against Akron's 131st-ranked defense. That's a mismatch.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
EPAWestern Michigan 8–0
Who's more efficient, Western Michigan or Akron?
Western Michigan is better running (62nd in EPA per rush) than throwing (93rd). Akron's run defense ranks 108th, so that's an edge. Akron is better running (85th in EPA per rush) than throwing (117th). Western Michigan's run defense ranks 66th.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
ScoringWestern Michigan 2–0
Who scores more, Western Michigan or Akron?
Western Michigan outscores FBS opponents by 7.0 a game, and Akron is outscored by 13.1. Western Michigan's offense ranks 84th in scoring, and the Akron defense it faces ranks 121st in points allowed. Akron's offense ranks 129th against Western Michigan's 23rd-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Western Michigan's offense against Akron's defense.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
OffenseEven 6–6
Which offense has the edge?
Western Michigan's best matchup is their run game: their offense ranks 73rd in yards per carry, and Akron's defense ranks 134th in yards per carry allowed. That's a mismatch. Akron's best matchup is staying on schedule: their offense ranks 63rd in success rate, and Western Michigan's defense ranks 99th in success rate allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
DefenseWestern Michigan 9–2
Which defense has the edge?
Western Michigan's defense is best placed to get home: it ranks 34th in sack rate, and Akron's offense is bottom-40 at avoiding sacks (111th). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
Up frontWestern Michigan 7–5
Who wins up front?
Western Michigan has the better number in 7 of 12. The biggest gap is power success allowed, where Akron ranks 46th and Western Michigan 124th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TurnoversWestern Michigan 6–1
Who wins the turnover battle?
Western Michigan is +0.4 in turnover margin a game and Akron is −1.0. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 7-point edge for Western Michigan. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.
Per game, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TalentWestern Michigan 7–3
Which team has more talent?
Western Michigan has the more talented roster (108th in the 247Sports talent composite; Akron is 121st). Western Michigan also plays further above their talent: +3.0 points of SP+ beyond what their roster predicts, to Akron's −17.8.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Where the data comes from: 247Sports, preseason; 247Sports talent composite against SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026); CollegeFootballData.com returning production, preseason; 247Sports recruiting rankings, via CollegeFootballData.com.
RECEIPTSWestern Michigan 5–0
Where did each team's wins come from?
Western Michigan is +1.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+1.7). Akron is −3.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (−3.2). Akron's record is 1.0 wins worse than their play on bad luck, so they're better than the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Where the data comes from: our split of every game result, games through Nov 7, 2026, using SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026), the 247Sports talent composite and CollegeFootballData.com returning production.
The trip
How far is Western Michigan traveling?
It's Western Michigan's 6th road trip of the season. Counting this one, they'll have traveled 3,813 miles, there and back, 100th of 138 in FBS.
The transitive property
The shortest chain of real results this season that “proves” each team wins.
Western Michigan wins
38–7Week 6
35–20Week 8
Western Michigan beat Kent State 38–7 in Week 6. Kent State beat Akron 35–20 in Week 8.Akron wins
Can't be done. No chain of wins leads from Akron to Western Michigan.Each arrow in a chain is a win, with the score and the week. At a neutral site, both teams travel.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com schedules and results, games through Nov 7, 2026. Miles as the crow flies, campus to stadium.
FAQ
Western Michigan at Akron: questions people ask
Western Michigan vs. Akron prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Western Michigan, 89% chance to win. SP+ and PRIME favor the same team. Western Michigan's best matchup is their scoring defense, 23rd in points allowed, against Akron's scoring offense at 129th.
Where can I watch Western Michigan vs. Akron, and what time is it?
Tue, Nov 10, 7:00 PM ET at InfoCision Stadium. It's on CBSSN.
What's the projected score of Western Michigan vs. Akron?
SP+ projects Western Michigan 34–14. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for Western Michigan at Akron?
DraftKings has Western Michigan −14, total 48.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the Western Michigan vs. Akron series history?
Western Michigan leads 16–4. Last meeting: Western Michigan won 34–24 in 2024.
Who are the players to watch in Western Michigan vs. Akron?
Western Michigan: Broc Lowry (1,421 passing yards), Jalen Buckley (709 rushing yards) and Aveion Chenault (540 receiving yards). Akron: Brayden Roggow (1,347 passing yards), Jordan Gant (726 rushing yards) and Kyan Mason (413 receiving yards). Season totals through Nov 7, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Western Michigan at Akron?
Western Michigan's is Broc Lowry (1,421 passing yards this season); Akron's is Brayden Roggow (1,347 passing yards this season).
Keep going
- Western Michigan: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Akron: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Kent State at Bowling Green: the numbers' pick
- Ohio at Miami (OH): the numbers' pick
- Massachusetts at Toledo: the numbers' pick
- Sacramento State at Central Michigan: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 11 pick
- The Mid-American: standings, stats and rankings
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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Numbers through the games of Nov 7, 2026. SP+ as of Nov 2, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Recent form
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.