Middle Tennessee vs. Liberty Prediction and Pick, Week 11 2026
The numbers sayLiberty98% chance to win
- Liberty should run it. Liberty is top-10 (3rd) in EPA per rush, and Middle Tennessee is bottom-20 (130th) in EPA per rush allowed.
- Liberty's offensive line should win up front. Liberty is top-10 (10th) in line yards per carry, and Middle Tennessee is bottom-20 (137th) in line yards allowed per carry.
Updated
Middle Tennessee at Liberty
Projected score: Middle Tennessee 12, Liberty 38 (total 50).SP+: Liberty by 25.2, 96% chance to win.PRIME: Liberty by 26.3.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 14, 3:30 PM ET
- TV
- CBSSN
- Where
- Williams Stadium (VA)
- Line
- Liberty −21.5, total 53.5
- Line movement
- Opened Liberty −20.5; moved 1 point toward Liberty. Total opened 54.5, down 1.
- Series
- Liberty leads 3–0
- Last meeting
- Liberty 37–17 in 2024
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Liberty by 25.2 | 96% | 50 |
| PRIME | Liberty by 26.3 | 97% | |
| Elo | Liberty | 99% | |
| The line | Liberty −21.5, opened −20.5 | 53.5, opened 54.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Mon, Nov 9, 7:09 AM ET.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Middle Tennessee or Liberty?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
What do the sportsbooks say?
| Sportsbook | Middle Tennessee spread | Liberty spread | Over | Under | Middle Tennessee moneyline | Liberty moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +21.5 −105 | −21.5 −115 | 53.5 −108 (best price) | 53.5 −112 | +950 | −1650 |
| FanDuel | +21.5 −110 | −21.5 −110 | 53.5 −110 | 53.5 −110 | +1000 | −2000 |
| BetMGM | +21.5 −108 | −21.5 −110 | 53.5 −110 | 53.5 −108 (best price) | +1050 | −1600 (best price) |
| Caesars | +21.5 −110 | −21.5 −110 | 53.5 −109 | 53.5 −110 | +950 | −1700 |
| ESPN BET | +21.5 −115 | −21.5 −105 (best price) | 53.5 −110 | 53.5 −110 | +1100 (best price) | −2500 |
| BetRivers | +21.5 −115 | −21.5 −108 | 53.5 −112 | 53.5 −112 | +1050 | −3335 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +21.5 −115 | −21.5 −105 (best price) | 53.5 −110 | 53.5 −110 | +1100 (best price) | −2500 |
| Fanatics | +22 −110 (best price) | −22 −110 | 53.5 −110 | 53.5 −110 | +1050 | −1800 |
Odds updated Mon., Nov. 9, 7:09 AM ET. The best price on each bet is marked. Prices move fast, so check the book before you bet. Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Middle Tennessee vs. Liberty?
All three ratings favor Liberty, by 26.3 points, and it isn't close. Liberty's best matchup is their run game, 3rd in EPA per rush, against Middle Tennessee's run defense at 130th. Middle Tennessee's way back in is their pass protection, 17th in sacks allowed per dropback, against Liberty's pass rush at 68th.
Middle Tennessee with the ball
LibertyLibertyLibertyLibertyLibertyLibertyLibertyLiberty with the ball
LibertyLibertyLibertyLibertyLibertyLibertyLibertyLibertyLibertyEach row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026; CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Recent form
How have Middle Tennessee and Liberty played lately?
Middle Tennessee
3–2 in the last five.
- W 51–42 vs. Western Kentucky Week 10
- L 28–44 vs. Kennesaw State Week 9
- W 26–23 at Florida International Week 8
- W 33–30 vs. Delaware Week 7
- L 0–55 at Kansas Week 5
Liberty
5–0 in the last five. Won 5 straight.
- W 30–14 at New Mexico State Week 10
- W 49–10 vs. Florida International Week 9
- W 34–6 at Kennesaw State Week 8
- W 35–3 vs. Sam Houston Week 6
- W 30–14 at Delaware Week 5
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Middle Tennessee and Liberty?
Middle Tennessee
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Liberty
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Middle Tennessee and Liberty compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Middle Tennessee and Liberty are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
The players in charts
How Middle Tennessee's and Liberty's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
RatingsLiberty 8–2
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Middle Tennessee and Liberty?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Liberty 22.7 points better (45th to 125th). PRIME also has Liberty ahead, by 23.8. Elo, which only sees results, also has Liberty ahead (14th to 123rd).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Where the data comes from: SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update), last pulled Nov 2, 2026; PRIME (primecfb.com), updated Nov 9, 2026; Elo from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Opponent-adjustedLiberty 15–1
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Middle Tennessee's offense ranks 85th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Liberty defense it faces ranks 30th in EPA per play allowed. Liberty's offense ranks 10th against Middle Tennessee's 126th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Liberty's offense against Middle Tennessee's defense. The biggest edge on the board is Liberty's run game: 3rd in adjusted EPA per rush, against Middle Tennessee's 130th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and Liberty's defense falls from 6th to 30th in EPA per play allowed: a lot of that came against soft offenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
EPALiberty 8–0
Who's more efficient, Middle Tennessee or Liberty?
Middle Tennessee is better running (45th in EPA per rush) than throwing (88th). Liberty's run defense ranks 20th, so the defense has the better of it. Liberty is about as good throwing (20th in EPA per pass) as running (28th). On third down, Liberty has the edge: their offense ranks 69th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense they face ranks 99th.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
ScoringLiberty 2–0
Who scores more, Middle Tennessee or Liberty?
Middle Tennessee is outscored by 4.1 a game, and Liberty by 19.7. Middle Tennessee's offense ranks 77th in scoring, and the Liberty defense it faces ranks 6th in points allowed. Liberty's offense ranks 33rd against Middle Tennessee's 117th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Liberty's offense against Middle Tennessee's defense.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
OffenseLiberty 9–3
Which offense has the edge?
Middle Tennessee has no clear edge here. Their best is yards per carry, 31st, against a defense ranked 47th in yards per carry allowed. Liberty's best matchup is staying on schedule: their offense ranks 9th in success rate, and Middle Tennessee's defense ranks 132nd in success rate allowed. That's a mismatch.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
DefenseLiberty 11–0
Which defense has the edge?
Liberty's defense is best placed to get off the field on third down: it ranks 18th in 3rd down conversions allowed, and Middle Tennessee's offense is bottom-40 in 3rd down conversion rate (117th). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
Up frontLiberty 10–2
Who wins up front?
Liberty has the better number in 10 of 12. The biggest gap is power success (short yardage), where Liberty ranks 5th and Middle Tennessee 124th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TurnoversLiberty 4–2
Who wins the turnover battle?
Liberty is +0.9 in turnover margin a game and Middle Tennessee is +0.6. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 2-point edge for Liberty. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.
Per game, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TalentLiberty 8–2
Which team has more talent?
Liberty has the more talented roster (79th in the 247Sports talent composite; Middle Tennessee is 109th). Liberty also plays further above their talent: +9.3 points of SP+ beyond what their roster predicts, to Middle Tennessee's −9.5.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Where the data comes from: 247Sports, preseason; 247Sports talent composite against SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026); CollegeFootballData.com returning production, preseason; 247Sports recruiting rankings, via CollegeFootballData.com.
RECEIPTSLiberty 4–1
Where did each team's wins come from?
Middle Tennessee is +0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (−2.2). Liberty is +3.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+2.4). Middle Tennessee's record is running 1.5 wins ahead of their play on luck alone, so they're not as good as the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Where the data comes from: our split of every game result, games through Nov 7, 2026, using SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026), the 247Sports talent composite and CollegeFootballData.com returning production.
The trip
How far is Middle Tennessee traveling?
It's Middle Tennessee's 5th road trip of the season. Counting this one, they'll have traveled 4,305 miles, there and back, 89th of 138 in FBS.
The transitive property
The shortest chain of real results this season that “proves” each team wins.
Middle Tennessee wins
33–30Week 7
22–14Week 3
31–20Week 9
39–23Week 10
34–31Week 8
20–13Week 1Middle Tennessee beat Delaware 33–30 in Week 7. Delaware beat Coastal Carolina 22–14 in Week 3. Coastal Carolina beat Georgia State 31–20 in Week 9. Georgia State beat App State 39–23 in Week 10. App State beat James Madison 34–31 in Week 8. James Madison beat Liberty 20–13 in Week 1.Liberty wins
34–6Week 8
44–28Week 9Liberty beat Kennesaw State 34–6 in Week 8. Kennesaw State beat Middle Tennessee 44–28 in Week 9.Each arrow in a chain is a win, with the score and the week. At a neutral site, both teams travel.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com schedules and results, games through Nov 7, 2026. Miles as the crow flies, campus to stadium.
FAQ
Middle Tennessee at Liberty: questions people ask
Middle Tennessee vs. Liberty prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Liberty, 98% chance to win. SP+ and PRIME favor the same team. Liberty's best matchup is their run game, 3rd in EPA per rush, against Middle Tennessee's run defense at 130th.
Where can I watch Middle Tennessee vs. Liberty, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 14, 3:30 PM ET at Williams Stadium (VA). It's on CBSSN.
What's the projected score of Middle Tennessee vs. Liberty?
SP+ projects Liberty 38–12. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for Middle Tennessee at Liberty?
DraftKings has Liberty −21.5, total 53.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the Middle Tennessee vs. Liberty series history?
Liberty leads 3–0. Last meeting: Liberty won 37–17 in 2024.
Who are the players to watch in Middle Tennessee vs. Liberty?
Middle Tennessee: Roman Gagliano (1,899 passing yards), Antonio Martin (711 rushing yards) and Cam'Ron Lacy (579 receiving yards). Liberty: Deshawn Purdie (1,705 passing yards), Kam Davis (666 rushing yards) and Makai Jackson (702 receiving yards). Season totals through Nov 7, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Middle Tennessee at Liberty?
Middle Tennessee's is Roman Gagliano (1,899 passing yards this season); Liberty's is Deshawn Purdie (1,705 passing yards this season).
Keep going
- Middle Tennessee: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Liberty: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Kennesaw State at Sam Houston: the numbers' pick
- New Mexico State at Missouri State: the numbers' pick
- Florida International at Delaware: the numbers' pick
- Jacksonville State at Western Kentucky: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 11 pick
- The Conference USA: standings, stats and rankings
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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Numbers through the games of Nov 7, 2026. SP+ as of Nov 2, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Recent form
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.