Florida International vs. Delaware Prediction, Week 11 2026
63% chance to win
Updated
Florida International at Delaware
Projected score: Florida International 25, Delaware 24 (total 48).SP+: Florida International by 1.3, 54% chance to win.PRIME: Delaware by 3.6, the other side.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 14, 3:00 PM ET
- TV
- ESPN+
- Where
- Delaware Stadium
- Line
- Delaware −5.5, total 54.5
- Line movement
- Opened Delaware −6.5; moved 1 point toward Florida International. Total opened 50.5, up 4.
- Series
- Delaware leads 1–0
- Last meeting
- Delaware 38–16 in 2025
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Florida International by 1.3 | 54% | 48 |
| PRIME | Delaware by 3.6 | 60% | |
| Elo | Delaware | 65% | |
| The line | Delaware −5.5, opened −6.5 | 54.5, opened 50.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Mon, Nov 9, 7:09 AM ET.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Florida International or Delaware?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
What do the sportsbooks say?
| Sportsbook | Florida International spread | Delaware spread | Over | Under | Florida International moneyline | Delaware moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +5.5 −112 | −5.5 −108 | 54.5 −105 | 54.5 −115 | +170 | −205 (best price) |
| FanDuel | +5.5 −108 (best price) | −5.5 −112 | 54.5 −110 | 54.5 −110 (best price) | +176 (best price) | −215 |
| BetMGM | +5 −108 | −5 −110 (best price) | 54.5 −108 | 54.5 −110 (best price) | +175 | −210 |
| Caesars | +5.5 −108 (best price) | −5.5 −112 | 54.5 −108 | 54.5 −113 | +174 | −209 |
| BetRivers | +5 −109 | −5 −114 | 53.5 −114 | 53.5 −109 | +165 | −210 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +5.5 −110 | −5.5 −110 | 53.5 −110 (best price) | 53.5 −110 | +165 | −210 |
| Fanatics | +5 −110 | −5 −110 (best price) | 54 −110 | 54 −110 | +175 | −215 |
Odds updated Mon., Nov. 9, 7:09 AM ET. The best price on each bet is marked. Prices move fast, so check the book before you bet. Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Florida International vs. Delaware?
All three ratings favor Delaware, by 3.6 points. Delaware's best matchup is their takeaway defense, 69th in interceptions per pass, against Florida International's ball security at 114th. Florida International's way back in is their run-stopping front, 32nd in line yards allowed per carry, against Delaware's offensive line at 112th.
Florida International with the ball
Delaware with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026; CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Recent form
How have Florida International and Delaware played lately?
Florida International
2–3 in the last five.
- W 23–20 vs. Missouri State Week 10
- L 10–49 at Liberty Week 9
- L 23–26 vs. Middle Tennessee Week 8
- L 24–27 at Jacksonville State Week 7
- W 22–3 vs. New Mexico State Week 6
Delaware
2–3 in the last five.
- L 40–42 at Kennesaw State Week 10
- W 35–21 at Western Kentucky Week 9
- W 61–38 vs. Missouri State Week 8
- L 30–33 at Middle Tennessee Week 7
- L 14–30 vs. Liberty Week 5
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Florida International and Delaware?
Florida International
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Delaware
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Florida International and Delaware compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Florida International and Delaware are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
The players in charts
How Florida International's and Delaware's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
RatingsDelaware 5–4
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Florida International and Delaware?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Florida International 3.8 points better (100th to 117th). PRIME has Delaware by 1.1 instead. Elo, which only sees results, has Delaware ahead (89th to 99th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Where the data comes from: SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update), last pulled Nov 2, 2026; PRIME (primecfb.com), updated Nov 9, 2026; Elo from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Opponent-adjustedFlorida International 9–7
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Florida International's offense ranks 126th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Delaware defense it faces ranks 106th in EPA per play allowed. Delaware's offense ranks 90th against Florida International's 50th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge. Adjust for opponents and Delaware's offense falls from 50th to 90th in EPA per play: a lot of that came against soft defenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
EPAFlorida International 5–3
Who's more efficient, Florida International or Delaware?
Florida International is better throwing (99th in EPA per pass) than running (122nd). Delaware's pass defense ranks 71st, so the defense has the better of it. Delaware is better throwing (27th in EPA per pass) than running (108th). Florida International's pass defense ranks 31st. On third down, Florida International has the edge: their offense ranks 47th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense they face ranks 81st.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
ScoringEven 1–1
Who scores more, Florida International or Delaware?
Florida International is outscored by 1.0 a game, and Delaware by 1.2. Florida International's offense ranks 127th in scoring, and the Delaware defense it faces ranks 106th in points allowed. Delaware's offense ranks 52nd against Florida International's 35th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
OffenseDelaware 8–4
Which offense has the edge?
Florida International's best matchup is third downs: their offense ranks 40th in 3rd down conversion rate, and Delaware's defense ranks 74th in 3rd down conversions allowed. Delaware has no clear edge here. Their best is SUPLEX, 52nd, against a defense ranked 35th in SUPLEX allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
DefenseFlorida International 10–1
Which defense has the edge?
Florida International's defense is best placed to get off the field on third down: it ranks 25th in 3rd down conversions allowed, and Delaware's offense is bottom-40 in 3rd down conversion rate (109th). That's a mismatch. Delaware's defense is best placed to pick off passes: it ranks 69th in interception rate, and Florida International's offense is bottom-40 at avoiding interceptions (114th).
What opponents managed against them.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
Up frontFlorida International 11–1
Who wins up front?
Florida International has the better number in 11 of 12. The biggest gap is power success (short yardage), where Florida International ranks 23rd and Delaware 124th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TurnoversDelaware 6–0
Who wins the turnover battle?
Delaware is +0.4 in turnover margin a game and Florida International is −0.3. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 4-point edge for Delaware. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it. Fumble recoveries are mostly luck, and Delaware's takeaways lean on them (0.8 of 1.7 a game).
Per game, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TalentEven 5–5
Which team has more talent?
Florida International has the more talented roster (90th in the 247Sports talent composite; Delaware is 134th). But Delaware plays further above their talent: −0.5 points of SP+ beyond what their roster predicts, to Florida International's −4.4.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Where the data comes from: 247Sports, preseason; 247Sports talent composite against SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026); CollegeFootballData.com returning production, preseason; 247Sports recruiting rankings, via CollegeFootballData.com.
RECEIPTSDelaware 3–1
Where did each team's wins come from?
Florida International is −0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+1.8). Delaware is −0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+1.8). Florida International's record is 0.8 wins worse than their play on bad luck, so they're better than the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Where the data comes from: our split of every game result, games through Nov 7, 2026, using SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026), the 247Sports talent composite and CollegeFootballData.com returning production.
The trip
How far is Florida International traveling?
It's Florida International's 5th road trip of the season. Counting this one, they'll have traveled 5,390 miles, there and back, 69th of 138 in FBS.
The transitive property
The shortest chain of real results this season that “proves” each team wins.
Florida International wins
23–20Week 10
24–21Week 7
42–40Week 10
Florida International beat Missouri State 23–20 in Week 10. Missouri State beat Kennesaw State 24–21 in Week 7. Kennesaw State beat Delaware 42–40 in Week 10.Delaware wins
61–38Week 824–21Week 744–28Week 9
26–23Week 8Delaware beat Missouri State 61–38 in Week 8. Missouri State beat Kennesaw State 24–21 in Week 7. Kennesaw State beat Middle Tennessee 44–28 in Week 9. Middle Tennessee beat Florida International 26–23 in Week 8.Each arrow in a chain is a win, with the score and the week. At a neutral site, both teams travel.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com schedules and results, games through Nov 7, 2026. Miles as the crow flies, campus to stadium.
FAQ
Florida International at Delaware: questions people ask
Florida International vs. Delaware prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Delaware, 63% chance to win. SP+ and PRIME favor the same team. Delaware's best matchup is their takeaway defense, 69th in interceptions per pass, against Florida International's ball security at 114th.
Where can I watch Florida International vs. Delaware, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 14, 3:00 PM ET at Delaware Stadium. It's on ESPN+.
What's the projected score of Florida International vs. Delaware?
SP+ projects Florida International 25–24. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for Florida International at Delaware?
DraftKings has Delaware −5.5, total 54.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the Florida International vs. Delaware series history?
Delaware leads 1–0. Last meeting: Delaware won 38–16 in 2025.
Who are the players to watch in Florida International vs. Delaware?
Florida International: J.J. Kohl (2,019 passing yards), Devonte Lyons (651 rushing yards) and Maguire Anderson (601 receiving yards). Delaware: Nick Minicucci (1,885 passing yards), Jo'Nathan Silver (419 rushing yards) and Sean Wilson (639 receiving yards). Season totals through Nov 7, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Florida International at Delaware?
Florida International's is J.J. Kohl (2,019 passing yards this season); Delaware's is Nick Minicucci (1,885 passing yards this season).
Keep going
- Florida International: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Delaware: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Kennesaw State at Sam Houston: the numbers' pick
- New Mexico State at Missouri State: the numbers' pick
- Jacksonville State at Western Kentucky: the numbers' pick
- Middle Tennessee at Liberty: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 11 pick
- The Conference USA: standings, stats and rankings
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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Numbers through the games of Nov 7, 2026. SP+ as of Nov 2, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Recent form
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.