Kennesaw State vs. Sam Houston Prediction, Week 11 2026
68% chance to win
- Kennesaw State's run defense has the edge on Sam Houston's run game. Kennesaw State is middle of the pack (63rd) in yards per carry allowed, and Sam Houston is bottom-20 (131st) in yards per carry.
- Kennesaw State's defense has the edge on Sam Houston's offense. Kennesaw State is middle of the pack (74th) in EPA per play allowed, and Sam Houston is bottom-20 (135th) in EPA per play.
Updated
Kennesaw State at Sam Houston
Projected score: Kennesaw State 21, Sam Houston 20 (total 41).SP+: Kennesaw State by 1.7, 55% chance to win.PRIME: Kennesaw State by 2.1.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 14, 2:00 PM ET
- TV
- ESPN+
- Where
- Elliott T. Bowers Stadium
- Line
- Kennesaw State −8.5, total 47.5
- Line movement
- Opened Kennesaw State −7.5; moved 1 point toward Kennesaw State. Total opened 44.5, up 3.
- Series
- Sam Houston leads 3–0
- Last meeting
- Sam Houston 23–17 in 2024
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Kennesaw State by 1.7 | 55% | 41 |
| PRIME | Kennesaw State by 2.1 | 56% | |
| Elo | Kennesaw State | 80% | |
| The line | Kennesaw State −8.5, opened −7.5 | 47.5, opened 44.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Mon, Nov 9, 7:09 AM ET.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Kennesaw State or Sam Houston?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
What do the sportsbooks say?
| Sportsbook | Kennesaw State spread | Sam Houston spread | Over | Under | Kennesaw State moneyline | Sam Houston moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | −8.5 −105 | +8.5 −115 | 47.5 −105 | 47.5 −115 | −325 | +260 (best price) |
| FanDuel | −9.5 +100 | +9.5 −122 (best price) | 47.5 −110 | 47.5 −110 (best price) | −310 | +250 |
| BetMGM | −8 −110 | +8 −108 | 47.5 −108 | 47.5 −110 (best price) | −300 (best price) | +260 (best price) |
| Caesars | −8 −112 | +8 −112 | 47.5 −108 | 47.5 −112 | −325 | +260 (best price) |
| ESPN BET | −7.5 −110 (best price) | +7.5 −110 | 47.5 −105 | 47.5 −115 | −320 | +260 (best price) |
| BetRivers | −8.5 −110 | +8.5 −113 | 46.5 −114 | 46.5 −109 | −345 | +260 (best price) |
| Hard Rock Bet | −8.5 −110 | +8.5 −110 | 46.5 −110 (best price) | 46.5 −110 | −350 | +260 (best price) |
| Fanatics | −8 −110 | +8 −110 | 47 −110 | 47 −110 | −330 | +260 (best price) |
Odds updated Mon., Nov. 9, 7:09 AM ET. The best price on each bet is marked. Prices move fast, so check the book before you bet. Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Kennesaw State vs. Sam Houston?
All three ratings favor Kennesaw State, by 2.1 points. Kennesaw State's best matchup is their run defense, 63rd in yards per carry allowed, against Sam Houston's run game at 131st. Sam Houston's way back in is their pass defense, 41st in EPA per pass allowed, against Kennesaw State's passing game at 98th.
Kennesaw State with the ball
Sam Houston with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026; CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Recent form
How have Kennesaw State and Sam Houston played lately?
Kennesaw State
2–3 in the last five. Won 2 straight.
- W 42–40 vs. Delaware Week 10
- W 44–28 at Middle Tennessee Week 9
- L 6–34 vs. Liberty Week 8
- L 21–24 at Missouri State Week 7
- L 26–27 vs. Jacksonville State Week 6
Sam Houston
0–5 in the last five. Lost 5 straight.
- L 14–47 at Jacksonville State Week 10
- L 3–24 at Missouri State Week 9
- L 24–30 vs. New Mexico State Week 8
- L 3–16 vs. Western Kentucky Week 7
- L 3–35 at Liberty Week 6
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Kennesaw State and Sam Houston?
Kennesaw State
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Sam Houston
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Kennesaw State and Sam Houston compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Kennesaw State and Sam Houston are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
The players in charts
How Kennesaw State's and Sam Houston's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
RatingsKennesaw State 8–2
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Kennesaw State and Sam Houston?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Kennesaw State 4.2 points better (120th to 129th). PRIME also has Kennesaw State ahead, by 4.6. Elo, which only sees results, also has Kennesaw State ahead (107th to 136th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Where the data comes from: SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update), last pulled Nov 2, 2026; PRIME (primecfb.com), updated Nov 9, 2026; Elo from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Opponent-adjustedKennesaw State 13–3
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Kennesaw State's offense ranks 102nd in adjusted EPA per play, and the Sam Houston defense it faces ranks 101st in EPA per play allowed. Sam Houston's offense ranks 135th against Kennesaw State's 74th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge. The biggest edge on the board is Kennesaw State's big plays: 59th in adjusted explosiveness, against Sam Houston's 127th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and Sam Houston's defense falls from 68th to 101st in EPA per play allowed: a lot of that came against soft offenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
EPAKennesaw State 5–2
Who's more efficient, Kennesaw State or Sam Houston?
Kennesaw State is better running (56th in EPA per rush) than throwing (111th). Sam Houston's run defense ranks 127th, so that's a mismatch. Sam Houston is better throwing (115th in EPA per pass) than running (136th). Kennesaw State's pass defense ranks 71st, so the defense has the better of it.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
ScoringKennesaw State 2–0
Who scores more, Kennesaw State or Sam Houston?
Kennesaw State is outscored by 1.9 a game, and Sam Houston is outscored by 10.0. Kennesaw State's offense ranks 91st in scoring, and the Sam Houston defense it faces ranks 97th in points allowed. Sam Houston's offense ranks 132nd against Kennesaw State's 91st-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
OffenseKennesaw State 9–3
Which offense has the edge?
Kennesaw State has no clear edge here. Their best is yards per carry, 99th, against a defense ranked 118th in yards per carry allowed. Sam Houston has no clear edge here. Their best is SUPLEX, 116th, against a defense ranked 109th in SUPLEX allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
DefenseSam Houston 8–3
Which defense has the edge?
Kennesaw State's defense is best placed to stop the run: it ranks 63rd in yards per carry allowed, and Sam Houston's offense is bottom-20 in yards per carry (131st). That's a mismatch. Sam Houston's defense is best placed to get off the field on third down: it ranks 13th in 3rd down conversions allowed, and Kennesaw State's offense is middle of the pack in 3rd down conversion rate (67th).
What opponents managed against them.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
Up frontKennesaw State 9–3
Who wins up front?
Kennesaw State has the better number in 9 of 12. The biggest gap is front-seven havoc allowed, where Kennesaw State ranks 28th and Sam Houston 135th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TurnoversSam Houston 4–2
Who wins the turnover battle?
Neither team has a real turnover edge: Kennesaw State is −0.1 a game and Sam Houston 0.0.
Per game, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TalentEven 5–5
Which team has more talent?
Sam Houston has the more talented roster (117th in the 247Sports talent composite; Kennesaw State is 133rd). But Kennesaw State plays further above their talent: −3.8 points of SP+ beyond what their roster predicts, to Sam Houston's −11.2.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Where the data comes from: 247Sports, preseason; 247Sports talent composite against SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026); CollegeFootballData.com returning production, preseason; 247Sports recruiting rankings, via CollegeFootballData.com.
RECEIPTSKennesaw State 4–1
Where did each team's wins come from?
Kennesaw State is −1.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is roster (−1.7). Sam Houston is −3.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (−2.2). Sam Houston's record is 1.7 wins worse than their play on bad luck, so they're better than the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Where the data comes from: our split of every game result, games through Nov 7, 2026, using SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026), the 247Sports talent composite and CollegeFootballData.com returning production.
The trip
How far is Kennesaw State traveling?
It's Kennesaw State's 5th road trip of the season. Counting this one, they'll have traveled 3,768 miles, there and back, 101st of 138 in FBS.
The transitive property
The shortest chain of real results this season that “proves” each team wins.
Kennesaw State wins
42–40Week 10
61–38Week 8
24–3Week 9
Kennesaw State beat Delaware 42–40 in Week 10. Delaware beat Missouri State 61–38 in Week 8. Missouri State beat Sam Houston 24–3 in Week 9.Sam Houston wins
Can't be done. No chain of wins leads from Sam Houston to Kennesaw State.Each arrow in a chain is a win, with the score and the week. At a neutral site, both teams travel.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com schedules and results, games through Nov 7, 2026. Miles as the crow flies, campus to stadium.
FAQ
Kennesaw State at Sam Houston: questions people ask
Kennesaw State vs. Sam Houston prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Kennesaw State, 68% chance to win. SP+ and PRIME favor the same team. Kennesaw State's best matchup is their run defense, 63rd in yards per carry allowed, against Sam Houston's run game at 131st.
Where can I watch Kennesaw State vs. Sam Houston, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 14, 2:00 PM ET at Elliott T. Bowers Stadium. It's on ESPN+.
What's the projected score of Kennesaw State vs. Sam Houston?
SP+ projects Kennesaw State 21–20. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for Kennesaw State at Sam Houston?
DraftKings has Kennesaw State −8.5, total 47.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the Kennesaw State vs. Sam Houston series history?
Sam Houston leads 3–0. Last meeting: Sam Houston won 23–17 in 2024.
Who are the players to watch in Kennesaw State vs. Sam Houston?
Kennesaw State: Rickie Collins (1,672 passing yards), Alan Woods III (448 rushing yards) and Brayden Munroe (440 receiving yards). Sam Houston: Landyn Locke (1,779 passing yards), Alton McCaskill (235 rushing yards) and Chris Reed (437 receiving yards). Season totals through Nov 7, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Kennesaw State at Sam Houston?
Kennesaw State's is Rickie Collins (1,672 passing yards this season); Sam Houston's is Landyn Locke (1,779 passing yards this season).
Keep going
- Kennesaw State: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Sam Houston: every stat, rank and the schedule
- New Mexico State at Missouri State: the numbers' pick
- Florida International at Delaware: the numbers' pick
- Jacksonville State at Western Kentucky: the numbers' pick
- Middle Tennessee at Liberty: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 11 pick
- The Conference USA: standings, stats and rankings
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
Daily collegefootball chartsin your inbox.
The best charts from the site, by email. Free. Unsubscribe whenever.
Numbers through the games of Nov 7, 2026. SP+ as of Nov 2, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Recent form
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.