New Mexico State vs. Missouri State Prediction, Week 11 2026
The numbers sayMissouri State62% chance to win
Updated
New Mexico State at Missouri State
Projected score: New Mexico State 25, Missouri State 24 (total 49).SP+: a coin flip.PRIME: Missouri State by 4.1, the other side.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 14, 3:00 PM ET
- TV
- ESPN+
- Where
- Plaster Sports Complex
- Line
- Missouri State −1.5, total 49.5
- Line movement
- Total opened 50.5, down 1.
- Series
- Missouri State leads 1–0
- Last meeting
- Missouri State 24–17 in 2025
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | New Mexico State by 1.0 | 53% | 49 |
| PRIME | Missouri State by 4.1 | 62% | |
| Elo | Missouri State | 63% | |
| The line | Missouri State −1.5 | 49.5, opened 50.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Mon, Nov 9, 7:09 AM ET.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, New Mexico State or Missouri State?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
What do the sportsbooks say?
| Sportsbook | New Mexico State spread | Missouri State spread | Over | Under | New Mexico State moneyline | Missouri State moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +1.5 −102 | −1.5 −118 | 49.5 −105 | 49.5 −115 | +105 | −125 (best price) |
| FanDuel | +2.5 −106 (best price) | −2.5 −114 | 49.5 −104 | 49.5 −118 | +110 (best price) | −132 |
| BetMGM | +2 −108 | −2 −110 | 48.5 −110 (best price) | 48.5 −108 | +105 | −125 (best price) |
| Caesars | +2.5 −107 | −2.5 −113 | 48.5 −115 | 48.5 −105 | +109 | −129 |
| ESPN BET | +2.5 −110 | −2.5 −110 | 49.5 −105 | 49.5 −115 | +110 (best price) | −130 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 −107 | −1.5 −117 | 49.5 −110 | 49.5 −112 | +104 | −129 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 −105 | −1.5 −115 (best price) | 49.5 −110 | 49.5 −110 (best price) | +105 | −130 |
| Fanatics | +2 −110 | −2 −110 | 49 −110 | 49 −110 | +105 | −125 (best price) |
Odds updated Mon., Nov. 9, 7:09 AM ET. The best price on each bet is marked. Prices move fast, so check the book before you bet. Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide New Mexico State vs. Missouri State?
All three ratings favor Missouri State, by 4.1 points. New Mexico State's way back in is their run-stopping front, 46th in line yards allowed per carry, against Missouri State's offensive line at 126th.
New Mexico State with the ball
Missouri State with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026; CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Recent form
How have New Mexico State and Missouri State played lately?
New Mexico State
2–3 in the last five. Lost 2 straight.
- L 14–30 vs. Liberty Week 10
- L 0–24 vs. Jacksonville State Week 9
- W 30–24 at Sam Houston Week 8
- L 3–22 at Florida International Week 6
- W 34–13 vs. Western Kentucky Week 5
Missouri State
2–3 in the last five.
- L 20–23 at Florida International Week 10
- W 24–3 vs. Sam Houston Week 9
- L 38–61 at Delaware Week 8
- W 24–21 vs. Kennesaw State Week 7
- L 13–34 at Western Kentucky Week 6
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for New Mexico State and Missouri State?
New Mexico State
- Tyler King (WR), hasn't played since Week 8 (23 catches in 5 games before that)
Missouri State
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How New Mexico State and Missouri State compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; New Mexico State and Missouri State are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
The players in charts
How New Mexico State's and Missouri State's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
RatingsNew Mexico State 6–4
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate New Mexico State and Missouri State?
On a neutral field, SP+ has New Mexico State 3.5 points better (119th to 128th). PRIME has Missouri State by 1.6 instead. Elo, which only sees results, has Missouri State ahead (118th to 122nd).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Where the data comes from: SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update), last pulled Nov 2, 2026; PRIME (primecfb.com), updated Nov 9, 2026; Elo from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Opponent-adjustedNew Mexico State 12–4
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
New Mexico State's offense ranks 131st in adjusted EPA per play, and the Missouri State defense it faces ranks 132nd in EPA per play allowed. Missouri State's offense ranks 116th against New Mexico State's 78th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge. The biggest edge on the board is New Mexico State's backs in the open field: 45th in adjusted open-field yards per carry, against Missouri State's 123rd-ranked defense. That's a mismatch.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
EPANew Mexico State 6–2
Who's more efficient, New Mexico State or Missouri State?
New Mexico State is better running (85th in EPA per rush) than throwing (132nd). Missouri State's run defense ranks 87th. Missouri State is better throwing (68th in EPA per pass) than running (118th). New Mexico State's pass defense ranks 38th, so the defense has the better of it. On third down, New Mexico State has the edge: their offense ranks 28th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense they face ranks 126th.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
ScoringEven 1–1
Who scores more, New Mexico State or Missouri State?
New Mexico State is outscored by 5.1 a game, and Missouri State is outscored by 6.1. New Mexico State's offense ranks 117th in scoring, and the Missouri State defense it faces ranks 112th in points allowed. Missouri State's offense ranks 97th against New Mexico State's 75th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
OffenseEven 6–6
Which offense has the edge?
New Mexico State's best matchup is third downs: their offense ranks 58th in 3rd down conversion rate, and Missouri State's defense ranks 111th in 3rd down conversions allowed. Missouri State has no clear edge here. Their best is 3rd down conversion rate, 100th, against a defense ranked 100th in 3rd down conversions allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
DefenseNew Mexico State 11–0
Which defense has the edge?
New Mexico State's defense is best placed to pick off passes: it ranks 33rd in interception rate, and Missouri State's offense is middle of the pack at avoiding interceptions (84th).
What opponents managed against them.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
Up frontNew Mexico State 11–1
Who wins up front?
New Mexico State has the better number in 11 of 12. The biggest gap is stuff rate (defense), where New Mexico State ranks 29th and Missouri State 107th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TurnoversMissouri State 6–1
Who wins the turnover battle?
Missouri State is −0.1 in turnover margin a game and New Mexico State is −0.9. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 4-point edge for Missouri State. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.
Per game, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TalentMissouri State 6–4
Which team has more talent?
Missouri State has the more talented roster (119th in the 247Sports talent composite; New Mexico State is 135th). But New Mexico State plays further above their talent: −0.7 points of SP+ beyond what their roster predicts, to Missouri State's −9.8.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Where the data comes from: 247Sports, preseason; 247Sports talent composite against SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026); CollegeFootballData.com returning production, preseason; 247Sports recruiting rankings, via CollegeFootballData.com.
RECEIPTSEven 2–2
Where did each team's wins come from?
New Mexico State is −1.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is roster (−2.3). Missouri State is −1.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (−1.9).
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Where the data comes from: our split of every game result, games through Nov 7, 2026, using SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026), the 247Sports talent composite and CollegeFootballData.com returning production.
The trip
How far is New Mexico State traveling?
It's New Mexico State's 5th road trip of the season. Counting this one, they'll have traveled 15,383 miles, there and back, 3rd of 138 in FBS.
The transitive property
The shortest chain of real results this season that “proves” each team wins.
New Mexico State wins
34–13Week 5
34–13Week 6New Mexico State beat Western Kentucky 34–13 in Week 5. Western Kentucky beat Missouri State 34–13 in Week 6.Missouri State wins
24–21Week 7
44–28Week 9
26–23Week 8
22–3Week 6Missouri State beat Kennesaw State 24–21 in Week 7. Kennesaw State beat Middle Tennessee 44–28 in Week 9. Middle Tennessee beat Florida International 26–23 in Week 8. Florida International beat New Mexico State 22–3 in Week 6.Each arrow in a chain is a win, with the score and the week. At a neutral site, both teams travel.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com schedules and results, games through Nov 7, 2026. Miles as the crow flies, campus to stadium.
FAQ
New Mexico State at Missouri State: questions people ask
New Mexico State vs. Missouri State prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Missouri State, 62% chance to win. SP+ and PRIME favor the same team.
Where can I watch New Mexico State vs. Missouri State, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 14, 3:00 PM ET at Plaster Sports Complex. It's on ESPN+.
What's the projected score of New Mexico State vs. Missouri State?
SP+ projects New Mexico State 25–24. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for New Mexico State at Missouri State?
DraftKings has Missouri State −1.5, total 49.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the New Mexico State vs. Missouri State series history?
Missouri State leads 1–0. Last meeting: Missouri State won 24–17 in 2025.
Who are the players to watch in New Mexico State vs. Missouri State?
New Mexico State: Trey Hedden (1,162 passing yards), James Jones (940 rushing yards) and AJ Williams III (357 receiving yards). Missouri State: Henry Belin IV (1,296 passing yards), Connor Lair (326 rushing yards) and Isaiah Myers (940 receiving yards). Season totals through Nov 7, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in New Mexico State at Missouri State?
New Mexico State's is Trey Hedden (1,162 passing yards this season); Missouri State's is Henry Belin IV (1,296 passing yards this season).
Who's out for New Mexico State at Missouri State?
New Mexico State: Tyler King (WR) hasn't played since Week 8.
Keep going
- New Mexico State: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Missouri State: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Kennesaw State at Sam Houston: the numbers' pick
- Florida International at Delaware: the numbers' pick
- Jacksonville State at Western Kentucky: the numbers' pick
- Middle Tennessee at Liberty: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 11 pick
- The Conference USA: standings, stats and rankings
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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Numbers through the games of Nov 7, 2026. SP+ as of Nov 2, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Recent form
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.