Jacksonville State vs. Western Kentucky Prediction, Week 11 2026
The numbers sayJacksonville State80% chance to win
- Jacksonville State should keep their quarterback clean. Jacksonville State is top-25 (19th) in sacks allowed per dropback, and Western Kentucky is bottom-20 (127th) in sack rate.
- Jacksonville State should win on early downs. Jacksonville State is top-25 (13th) in SUPLEX, and Western Kentucky is bottom-40 (114th) in SUPLEX allowed.
Updated
Jacksonville State at Western Kentucky
Projected score: Jacksonville State 29, Western Kentucky 23 (total 52).SP+: Jacksonville State by 6.4, 68% chance to win.PRIME: Jacksonville State by 11.0.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 14, 3:30 PM ET
- TV
- ESPN+
- Where
- Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
- Line
- Jacksonville State −7.5, total 53.5
- Line movement
- Opened Jacksonville State −6; moved 1.5 points toward Jacksonville State. Total opened 52.5, up 1.
- Series
- Jacksonville State leads 3–1
- Last meeting
- Jacksonville State 37–34 in 2025
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Jacksonville State by 6.4 | 68% | 52 |
| PRIME | Jacksonville State by 11.0 | 78% | |
| Elo | Jacksonville State | 81% | |
| The line | Jacksonville State −7.5, opened −6 | 53.5, opened 52.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Mon, Nov 9, 7:09 AM ET.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Jacksonville State or Western Kentucky?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
What do the sportsbooks say?
| Sportsbook | Jacksonville State spread | Western Kentucky spread | Over | Under | Jacksonville State moneyline | Western Kentucky moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | −7.5 −102 | +7.5 −118 | 53.5 −108 (best price) | 53.5 −112 | −298 | +240 |
| FanDuel | −7.5 −102 | +7.5 −120 | 53.5 −110 | 53.5 −110 (best price) | −285 | +230 |
| BetMGM | −7 −115 | +7 −105 | 53.5 −108 (best price) | 53.5 −110 (best price) | −285 | +230 |
| Caesars | −7.5 −105 | +7.5 −115 (best price) | 53.5 −110 | 53.5 −110 (best price) | −290 | +235 |
| ESPN BET | −7.5 +100 | +7.5 −120 | 53.5 −110 | 53.5 −110 (best price) | −300 | +250 (best price) |
| BetRivers | −7 −110 | +7 −113 | 53.5 −112 | 53.5 −110 (best price) | −275 (best price) | +210 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −6.5 −120 (best price) | +6.5 +100 | 53.5 −110 | 53.5 −110 (best price) | −275 (best price) | +210 |
| Fanatics | −7.5 −105 | +7.5 −115 (best price) | 53.5 −110 | 53.5 −110 (best price) | −300 | +240 |
Odds updated Mon., Nov. 9, 7:09 AM ET. The best price on each bet is marked. Prices move fast, so check the book before you bet. Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Jacksonville State vs. Western Kentucky?
All three ratings favor Jacksonville State, by 11.0 points. Jacksonville State's best matchup is their pass protection, 19th in sacks allowed per dropback, against Western Kentucky's pass rush at 127th. Western Kentucky's way back in is their 3rd down offense, 73rd in 3rd down conversion, against Jacksonville State's 3rd down defense at 116th.
Jacksonville State with the ball
Western Kentucky with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026; CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Recent form
How have Jacksonville State and Western Kentucky played lately?
Jacksonville State
5–0 in the last five. Won 5 straight.
- W 47–14 vs. Sam Houston Week 10
- W 24–0 at New Mexico State Week 9
- W 27–24 vs. Florida International Week 7
- W 27–26 at Kennesaw State Week 6
- W 23–13 vs. Middle Tennessee Week 4
Western Kentucky
2–3 in the last five. Lost 2 straight.
- L 42–51 at Middle Tennessee Week 10
- L 21–35 vs. Delaware Week 9
- W 16–3 at Sam Houston Week 7
- W 34–13 vs. Missouri State Week 6
- L 13–34 at New Mexico State Week 5
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Jacksonville State and Western Kentucky?
Jacksonville State
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Western Kentucky
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Jacksonville State and Western Kentucky compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Jacksonville State and Western Kentucky are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
The players in charts
How Jacksonville State's and Western Kentucky's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
RatingsJacksonville State 8–2
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Jacksonville State and Western Kentucky?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Jacksonville State 8.9 points better (84th to 115th). PRIME also has Jacksonville State ahead, by 13.5. Elo, which only sees results, also has Jacksonville State ahead (59th to 117th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Where the data comes from: SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update), last pulled Nov 2, 2026; PRIME (primecfb.com), updated Nov 9, 2026; Elo from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Opponent-adjustedJacksonville State 16–0
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Jacksonville State's offense ranks 56th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Western Kentucky defense it faces ranks 121st in EPA per play allowed. Western Kentucky's offense ranks 118th against Jacksonville State's 81st-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Jacksonville State's offense against Western Kentucky's defense. The biggest edge on the board is Jacksonville State's run game: 32nd in adjusted EPA per rush, against Western Kentucky's 126th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and Jacksonville State's defense falls from 58th to 81st in EPA per play allowed: a lot of that came against soft offenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
EPAJacksonville State 7–1
Who's more efficient, Jacksonville State or Western Kentucky?
Jacksonville State is better running (31st in EPA per rush) than throwing (53rd). Western Kentucky's run defense ranks 112th, so that's a mismatch. Western Kentucky is better running (72nd in EPA per rush) than throwing (115th). Jacksonville State's run defense ranks 101st, so that's an edge. On third down, Jacksonville State has the edge: their offense ranks 14th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense they face ranks 52nd.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
ScoringJacksonville State 2–0
Who scores more, Jacksonville State or Western Kentucky?
Jacksonville State outscores FBS opponents by 9.9 a game, and Western Kentucky is outscored by 9.7. Jacksonville State's offense ranks 64th in scoring, and the Western Kentucky defense it faces ranks 126th in points allowed. Western Kentucky's offense ranks 101st against Jacksonville State's 23rd-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Jacksonville State's offense against Western Kentucky's defense.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
OffenseJacksonville State 11–1
Which offense has the edge?
Jacksonville State's best matchup is early downs: their offense ranks 13th in SUPLEX, and Western Kentucky's defense ranks 114th in SUPLEX allowed. That's a mismatch. Western Kentucky's best matchup is third downs: their offense ranks 73rd in 3rd down conversion rate, and Jacksonville State's defense ranks 116th in 3rd down conversions allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
DefenseJacksonville State 10–1
Which defense has the edge?
Jacksonville State's defense is best placed to limit big plays: it ranks 33rd in explosive plays allowed, and Western Kentucky's offense is bottom-40 in explosive play rate (115th). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
Up frontJacksonville State 8–4
Who wins up front?
Jacksonville State has the better number in 8 of 12. The biggest gap is second-level yards per carry, where Jacksonville State ranks 12th and Western Kentucky 96th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TurnoversEven 2–2
Who wins the turnover battle?
Neither team has a real turnover edge: Jacksonville State is −0.6 a game and Western Kentucky −0.6.
Per game, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TalentWestern Kentucky 7–3
Which team has more talent?
Western Kentucky has the more talented roster (87th in the 247Sports talent composite; Jacksonville State is 93rd). But Jacksonville State plays further above their talent: +1.2 points of SP+ beyond what their roster predicts, to Western Kentucky's −8.3.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Where the data comes from: 247Sports, preseason; 247Sports talent composite against SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026); CollegeFootballData.com returning production, preseason; 247Sports recruiting rankings, via CollegeFootballData.com.
RECEIPTSJacksonville State 4–1
Where did each team's wins come from?
Jacksonville State is +2.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+2.1). Western Kentucky is −1.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (−1.6). Western Kentucky's record is 1.1 wins worse than their play on bad luck, so they're better than the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Where the data comes from: our split of every game result, games through Nov 7, 2026, using SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026), the 247Sports talent composite and CollegeFootballData.com returning production.
The trip
How far is Jacksonville State traveling?
It's Jacksonville State's 5th road trip of the season. Counting this one, they'll have traveled 6,026 miles, there and back, 59th of 138 in FBS.
The transitive property
The shortest chain of real results this season that “proves” each team wins.
Jacksonville State wins
24–0Week 9
34–13Week 5
Jacksonville State beat New Mexico State 24–0 in Week 9. New Mexico State beat Western Kentucky 34–13 in Week 5.Western Kentucky wins
34–13Week 6
24–21Week 7
42–40Week 10
22–14Week 3
27–21Week 6
20–13Week 8
41–36Week 3
29–27Week 2Western Kentucky beat Missouri State 34–13 in Week 6. Missouri State beat Kennesaw State 24–21 in Week 7. Kennesaw State beat Delaware 42–40 in Week 10. Delaware beat Coastal Carolina 22–14 in Week 3. Coastal Carolina beat Marshall 27–21 in Week 6. Marshall beat South Alabama 20–13 in Week 8. South Alabama beat Ohio 41–36 in Week 3. Ohio beat Jacksonville State 29–27 in Week 2.Each arrow in a chain is a win, with the score and the week. At a neutral site, both teams travel.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com schedules and results, games through Nov 7, 2026. Miles as the crow flies, campus to stadium.
FAQ
Jacksonville State at Western Kentucky: questions people ask
Jacksonville State vs. Western Kentucky prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Jacksonville State, 80% chance to win. SP+ and PRIME favor the same team. Jacksonville State's best matchup is their pass protection, 19th in sacks allowed per dropback, against Western Kentucky's pass rush at 127th.
Where can I watch Jacksonville State vs. Western Kentucky, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 14, 3:30 PM ET at Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium. It's on ESPN+.
What's the projected score of Jacksonville State vs. Western Kentucky?
SP+ projects Jacksonville State 29–23. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for Jacksonville State at Western Kentucky?
DraftKings has Jacksonville State −7.5, total 53.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the Jacksonville State vs. Western Kentucky series history?
Jacksonville State leads 3–1. Last meeting: Jacksonville State won 37–34 in 2025.
Who are the players to watch in Jacksonville State vs. Western Kentucky?
Jacksonville State: Caden Creel (1,992 passing yards), Jalen Likely (293 rushing yards) and Deondre Johnson (520 receiving yards). Western Kentucky: Brock Glenn (1,039 passing yards), Ajay Allen (521 rushing yards) and Jonathan Stafford Jr. (529 receiving yards). Season totals through Nov 7, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Jacksonville State at Western Kentucky?
Jacksonville State's is Caden Creel (1,992 passing yards this season); Western Kentucky's is Brock Glenn (1,039 passing yards this season).
Keep going
- Jacksonville State: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Western Kentucky: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Kennesaw State at Sam Houston: the numbers' pick
- New Mexico State at Missouri State: the numbers' pick
- Florida International at Delaware: the numbers' pick
- Middle Tennessee at Liberty: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 11 pick
- The Conference USA: standings, stats and rankings
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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Numbers through the games of Nov 7, 2026. SP+ as of Nov 2, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Recent form
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.