Minnesota vs. Penn State Prediction and Pick, Week 11 2026
79% chance to win
- Penn State's defense should get off the field on 3rd down. Penn State is top-10 (5th) in 3rd downs allowed, and Minnesota is bottom-20 (128th) in 3rd down conversion.
- Penn State's defense has the edge on Minnesota's offense. Penn State is above average (29th) in yards per play allowed, and Minnesota is bottom-20 (131st) in yards per play.
Updated
Minnesota at Penn State
Projected score: Minnesota 14, Penn State 25 (total 39).SP+: Penn State by 10.5, 77% chance to win.PRIME: Penn State by 7.0.
- Rivalry
- Governor's Victory Bell
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 14, 7:00 PM ET
- TV
- FS1
- Where
- Beaver Stadium
- Weather
- 36°, overcast, wind 7 mph
- Line
- Penn State −9.5, total 41.5
- Line movement
- Opened Penn State −7; moved 2.5 points toward Penn State. Total opened 43.5, down 2.
- Series
- Penn State leads 11–6
- Last meeting
- Penn State 26–25 in 2024
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Penn State by 10.5 | 77% | 39 |
| PRIME | Penn State by 7.0 | 69% | |
| Elo | Penn State | 91% | |
| The line | Penn State −9.5, opened −7 | 41.5, opened 43.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Thu, Nov 12, 10:24 PM ET.
Projected vs. what happened
What we projected for Louisiana vs. UL Monroe, and what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Minnesota or Penn State?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
What do the sportsbooks say?
| Sportsbook | Minnesota spread | Penn State spread | Over | Under | Minnesota moneyline | Penn State moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +9.5 −108 (best price) | −9.5 −112 | 41.5 −112 | 41.5 −108 | +280 | −355 |
| FanDuel | +9.5 −110 | −9.5 −110 | 41.5 −120 | 41.5 +100 | +280 | −350 (best price) |
| BetMGM | +9.5 −108 (best price) | −9.5 −110 | 42.5 −108 | 42.5 −112 | +280 | −350 (best price) |
| Caesars | +9.5 −112 | −9.5 −108 (best price) | 41.5 −114 | 41.5 −106 | +285 | −360 |
| ESPN BET | +9.5 −110 | −9.5 −110 | 41.5 −105 (best price) | 41.5 −115 | +290 (best price) | −380 |
| BetRivers | +9.5 −112 | −9.5 −112 | 42.5 −109 | 42.5 −113 | +275 | −375 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +9.5 −110 | −9.5 −110 | 42.5 −110 | 42.5 −110 (best price) | +275 | −375 |
| Fanatics | +9.5 −110 | −9.5 −110 | 42 −110 | 42 −110 | +290 (best price) | −375 |
Odds updated Thu., Nov. 12, 10:24 PM ET. The best price on each bet is marked. Prices move fast, so check the book before you bet. Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Minnesota vs. Penn State?
All three ratings favor Penn State, by 7.0 to 10.5 points. Penn State's best matchup is their 3rd down defense, 5th in 3rd downs allowed, against Minnesota's 3rd down offense at 128th. Minnesota's way back in is their pass protection, 16th in sacks allowed per dropback, against Penn State's pass rush at 112th.
Minnesota with the ball
Penn State with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026; CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 12, 2026.
Recent form
How have Minnesota and Penn State played lately?
Minnesota
2–3 in the last five. Lost 2 straight.
Penn State
2–3 in the last five. Won 2 straight.
- W 28–25 at Washington Week 10
- W 31–17 vs. Purdue Week 9
- L 18–21 at Michigan Week 7
- L 23–31 vs. USC Week 6
- L 13–34 at Northwestern Week 5
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Minnesota and Penn State?
Minnesota
- Garrison Monroe (#9), out (Big Ten availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Ryan Estrada (#20), out (Big Ten availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Jaylin Hicks (#55), out (Big Ten availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Brett Carroll (#56), out (Big Ten availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Ashton Beers (#78), out (Big Ten availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Hayden Moore (#84), out (Big Ten availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- John Nestor (DB), questionable (Big Ten availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Pierce Walsh (#19), questionable (Big Ten availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Mason Carrier (LB), questionable (Big Ten availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Julian Johnson (#82), questionable (Big Ten availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Riley Sunram (DL), questionable (Big Ten availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Theorin Randle (DL), questionable (Big Ten availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Adam Kissayi (#98), probable (Big Ten availability report, initial, Nov 14)
Penn State
- Koby Howard (WR), out (Big Ten availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Max Granville (#18), out (Big Ten availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Alex Tatsch (#25), out (Big Ten availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Tyler Armstead (#35), out (Big Ten availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Alijah Carnell (#56), out (Big Ten availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Malachi Goodman (#78), probable (Big Ten availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Cristiano Rosa (#95), probable (Big Ten availability report, initial, Nov 14)
How did Louisiana do without D'Wayne' Winfield?
With Winfield, Louisiana went 5–3 and won by 5.3 a game. Without him, this game included, they went 1–0 and won by 21.0 a game.
Where the data comes from. Scores and who played each game from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 12, 2026.
Chart data
| Week | Opponent | Score | Margin | Winfield played? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | at USC | 30–49 | −19.0 | Yes |
| 3 | vs. UAB | 21–14 | +7.0 | Yes |
| 4 | at Charlotte | 34–7 | +27.0 | Yes |
| 5 | vs. Arkansas State | 23–20 | +3.0 | Yes |
| 6 | at Louisiana Tech | 31–32 | −1.0 | Yes |
| 7 | vs. Troy | 33–6 | +27.0 | Yes |
| 8 | at Southern Miss | 31–35 | −4.0 | Yes |
| 10 | vs. South Alabama | 28–26 | +2.0 | Yes |
| 11 | at UL Monroe | 42–21 | +21.0 | No |
How did UL Monroe do without Aidan Armenta?
With Armenta, UL Monroe went 2–5 and lost by 17.6 a game. Without him, this game included, they went 0–2 and lost by 13.5 a game. Yards per play: 5.4 with him, 4.3 without.
Where the data comes from. Scores and who played each game from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 12, 2026.
Chart data
| Week | Opponent | Score | Margin | Armenta played? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | at Mississippi State | 13–62 | −49.0 | Yes |
| 2 | at UAB | 20–26 | −6.0 | No |
| 4 | vs. Florida Atlantic | 17–45 | −28.0 | Yes |
| 5 | at South Alabama | 35–52 | −17.0 | Yes |
| 7 | vs. Louisiana Tech | 0–24 | −24.0 | Yes |
| 8 | at Troy | 21–14 | +7.0 | Yes |
| 9 | vs. Southern Miss | 21–35 | −14.0 | Yes |
| 10 | at Arkansas State | 19–17 | +2.0 | Yes |
| 11 | vs. Louisiana | 21–42 | −21.0 | No |
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Minnesota and Penn State compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Minnesota and Penn State are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Nov 12, 2026.
The players in charts
How Minnesota's and Penn State's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Nov 12, 2026.
RatingsPenn State 7–3
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Minnesota and Penn State?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Penn State 8.0 points better (38th to 67th). PRIME also has Penn State ahead, by 4.5. Elo, which only sees results, also has Penn State ahead (19th to 79th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Where the data comes from: SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update), last pulled Nov 11, 2026; PRIME (primecfb.com), updated Nov 11, 2026; Elo from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 12, 2026.
Opponent-adjustedPenn State 11–5
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Minnesota's offense ranks 105th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Penn State defense it faces ranks 32nd in EPA per play allowed. Penn State's offense ranks 54th against Minnesota's 47th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge. The biggest edge on the board is Penn State's passing game: 21st in adjusted EPA per pass, against Minnesota's 51st-ranked defense. Adjust for opponents and Penn State's defense climbs from 57th to 32nd in EPA per play allowed: it has done its work against good offenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 12, 2026.
EPAPenn State 5–3
Who's more efficient, Minnesota or Penn State?
Minnesota is better throwing (94th in EPA per pass) than running (133rd). Penn State's pass defense ranks 12th, so the defense has the better of it. Penn State is better throwing (30th in EPA per pass) than running (86th). Minnesota's pass defense ranks 60th, so that's an edge.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 12, 2026.
ScoringPenn State 2–0
Who scores more, Minnesota or Penn State?
Minnesota outscores FBS opponents by 2.7 a game, and Penn State by 9.6. Minnesota's offense ranks 92nd in scoring, and the Penn State defense it faces ranks 27th in points allowed. Penn State's offense ranks 64th against Minnesota's 46th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026.
OffensePenn State 11–1
Which offense has the edge?
Minnesota has no clear edge here. Their best is yards per carry, 136th, against a defense ranked 103rd in yards per carry allowed. Penn State has no clear edge here. Their best is SUPLEX, 107th, against a defense ranked 104th in SUPLEX allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026.
DefensePenn State 8–3
Which defense has the edge?
Minnesota's defense is best placed to get off the field on third down: it ranks 11th in 3rd down conversions allowed, and Penn State's offense is middle of the pack in 3rd down conversion rate (91st). That's a mismatch. Penn State's defense is best placed to get off the field on third down: it ranks 5th in 3rd down conversions allowed, and Minnesota's offense is bottom-20 in 3rd down conversion rate (128th). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026.
Up frontPenn State 9–3
Who wins up front?
Penn State has the better number in 9 of 12. The biggest gap is power success (short yardage), where Penn State ranks 3rd and Minnesota 129th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026.
TurnoversPenn State 5–2
Who wins the turnover battle?
Neither team has a real turnover edge: Minnesota is +0.7 a game and Penn State +0.8. Fumble recoveries are mostly luck, and Minnesota's takeaways lean on them (0.8 of 1.8 a game).
Per game, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026.
TalentEven 5–5
Which team has more talent?
Penn State has the more talented roster (26th in the 247Sports talent composite; Minnesota is 40th). Penn State also plays further above their talent: +2.4 points of SP+ beyond what their roster predicts, to Minnesota's −2.9.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Where the data comes from: 247Sports, preseason; 247Sports talent composite against SP+ (last pulled Nov 11, 2026); CollegeFootballData.com returning production, preseason; 247Sports recruiting rankings, via CollegeFootballData.com.
MoneyPenn State 2–1
Which roster costs more?
Penn State's roster is valued at $27.8M, Minnesota's at $21.1M. Penn State also plays better per dollar: −2.8 points of SP+ above what their payroll predicts, to −4.7 for Minnesota.
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
Where the data comes from: The NIL Standard, preseason estimates; The NIL Standard's preseason roster values against this season's results.
RECEIPTSPenn State 3–1
Where did each team's wins come from?
Minnesota is +0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is luck (+1.1). Penn State is +0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is roster (+0.8). Minnesota's record is running 1.1 wins ahead of their play on luck alone, so they're not as good as the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Where the data comes from: our split of every game result, games through Nov 12, 2026, using SP+ (last pulled Nov 11, 2026), the 247Sports talent composite and CollegeFootballData.com returning production.
The trip
How far is Minnesota traveling?
It's Minnesota's 4th road trip of the season. Counting this one, they'll have traveled 6,390 miles, there and back, 53rd of 138 in FBS.
The transitive property
The shortest chain of real results this season that “proves” each team wins.
Minnesota wins
20–14Week 5
21–18Week 7
Minnesota beat Michigan 20–14 in Week 5. Michigan beat Penn State 21–18 in Week 7.Penn State wins
31–17Week 9
41–13Week 6Penn State beat Purdue 31–17 in Week 9. Purdue beat Minnesota 41–13 in Week 6.Each arrow in a chain is a win, with the score and the week. At a neutral site, both teams travel.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com schedules and results, games through Nov 12, 2026. Miles as the crow flies, campus to stadium.
FAQ
Minnesota at Penn State: questions people ask
Minnesota vs. Penn State prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Penn State, 79% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Penn State's best matchup is their 3rd down defense, 5th in 3rd downs allowed, against Minnesota's 3rd down offense at 128th.
Where can I watch Minnesota vs. Penn State, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 14, 7:00 PM ET at Beaver Stadium. It's on FS1.
What's the projected score of Minnesota vs. Penn State?
SP+ projects Penn State 25–14. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for Minnesota at Penn State?
DraftKings has Penn State −9.5, total 41.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the Minnesota vs. Penn State series history?
Penn State leads 11–6. Last meeting: Penn State won 26–25 in 2024.
Who are the players to watch in Minnesota vs. Penn State?
Minnesota: Drake Lindsey (1,797 passing yards), TJ Thomas Jr. (402 rushing yards) and Javon Tracy (485 receiving yards). Penn State: Rocco Becht (2,079 passing yards), Carson Hansen (493 rushing yards) and Chase Sowell (635 receiving yards). Season totals through Nov 12, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Minnesota at Penn State?
Minnesota's is Drake Lindsey (1,797 passing yards this season); Penn State's is Rocco Becht (2,079 passing yards this season).
Keep going
- Minnesota: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Penn State: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Illinois at UCLA: the numbers' pick
- Wisconsin at Maryland: the numbers' pick
- Northwestern at Ohio State: the numbers' pick
- Nebraska at Rutgers: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 11 pick
- The Big Ten: standings, stats and rankings
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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Numbers through the games of Nov 12, 2026. SP+ as of Nov 11, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Recent form
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.