Wisconsin vs. Maryland Prediction and Pick, Week 11 2026
The numbers sayWisconsin80% chance to win
- Wisconsin's pass defense should win its matchup. Wisconsin is top-10 (2nd) in EPA per pass allowed, and Maryland is bottom-20 (129th) in EPA per pass.
- Wisconsin's defense should hold up. Wisconsin is top-10 (5th) in EPA per play allowed, and Maryland is bottom-40 (112th) in EPA per play.
Updated
Wisconsin at Maryland
Projected score: Wisconsin 25, Maryland 17 (total 42).SP+: Wisconsin by 8.3, 72% chance to win.PRIME: Wisconsin by 9.5.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 14, 12:00 PM ET
- TV
- FS1
- Where
- SECU Stadium
- Line
- Wisconsin −8.5, total 43.5
- Line movement
- Opened Wisconsin −7.5; moved 1 point toward Wisconsin.
- Series
- Wisconsin leads 4–1
- Last meeting
- Maryland 27–10 in 2025
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Wisconsin by 8.3 | 72% | 42 |
| PRIME | Wisconsin by 9.5 | 75% | |
| Elo | Wisconsin | 85% | |
| The line | Wisconsin −8.5, opened −7.5 | 43.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Mon, Nov 9, 7:09 AM ET.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Wisconsin or Maryland?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
What do the sportsbooks say?
| Sportsbook | Wisconsin spread | Maryland spread | Over | Under | Wisconsin moneyline | Maryland moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | −8.5 −110 | +8.5 −110 (best price) | 43.5 −110 | 43.5 −110 (best price) | −325 | +260 |
| FanDuel | −7.5 −110 | +7.5 −110 | 43.5 −110 | 43.5 −110 (best price) | −300 | +245 |
| BetMGM | −8.5 −108 | +8.5 −110 (best price) | 43.5 −108 | 43.5 −110 (best price) | −325 | +260 |
| Caesars | −8.5 −107 | +8.5 −113 | 43.5 −112 | 43.5 −112 | −325 | +255 |
| ESPN BET | −7.5 −110 | +7.5 −110 | 43.5 −110 | 43.5 −110 (best price) | −300 | +250 |
| BetRivers | −7.5 −109 (best price) | +7.5 −114 | 43.5 −110 | 43.5 −113 | −295 | +225 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −7.5 −110 | +7.5 −110 | 43.5 −110 | 43.5 −110 (best price) | −275 (best price) | +225 |
| Fanatics | −8.5 −110 | +8.5 −110 (best price) | 43 −110 (best price) | 43 −110 | −340 | +270 (best price) |
Odds updated Mon., Nov. 9, 7:09 AM ET. The best price on each bet is marked. Prices move fast, so check the book before you bet. Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Wisconsin vs. Maryland?
All three ratings favor Wisconsin, by 9.5 points, and it isn't close. Wisconsin's best matchup is their pass defense, 2nd in EPA per pass allowed, against Maryland's passing game at 129th. Maryland's way back in is their early-down defense, 51st in SUPLEX allowed, against Wisconsin's early-down offense at 126th.
Wisconsin with the ball
Maryland with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026; CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Recent form
How have Wisconsin and Maryland played lately?
Wisconsin
3–2 in the last five.
- W 31–10 vs. Rutgers Week 10
- L 0–30 at Iowa Week 9
- W 24–7 vs. USC Week 8
- L 7–17 at UCLA Week 7
- W 31–3 vs. Michigan State Week 5
Maryland
1–4 in the last five.
- W 34–29 at Purdue Week 10
- L 17–20 vs. Illinois Week 9
- L 30–37 vs. Rutgers Week 7
- L 16–45 at Ohio State Week 6
- L 23–48 at Nebraska Week 5
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Wisconsin and Maryland?
Wisconsin
- Cai Bates (#3), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Nate Palmer (#15), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Kevin Heywood (#55), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Barrett Nelson (#70), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Emmett Bork (#82), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
Maryland
- Zahir Mathis (#9), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Josiah Teasley (#18), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- DJ Samuels (#20), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Harry Dalton III (RB), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Darius Grimes (#48), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Trevor Szymanski (#50), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Javonte Williams (#81), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Preston Howard (TE), last game: game time decision (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Wisconsin and Maryland compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Wisconsin and Maryland are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
The players in charts
How Wisconsin's and Maryland's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
RatingsWisconsin 9–1
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Wisconsin and Maryland?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Wisconsin 10.8 points better (40th to 81st). PRIME also has Wisconsin ahead, by 12.0. Elo, which only sees results, also has Wisconsin ahead (39th to 103rd).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Where the data comes from: SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update), last pulled Nov 2, 2026; PRIME (primecfb.com), updated Nov 9, 2026; Elo from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Opponent-adjustedWisconsin 14–2
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Wisconsin's offense ranks 64th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Maryland defense it faces ranks 83rd in EPA per play allowed. Maryland's offense ranks 112th against Wisconsin's 5th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge. The biggest edge on the board is Wisconsin's big plays: 26th in adjusted explosiveness, against Maryland's 114th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and Maryland's offense falls from 92nd to 112th in EPA per play: a lot of that came against soft defenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
EPAWisconsin 7–0
Who's more efficient, Wisconsin or Maryland?
Wisconsin is better running (62nd in EPA per rush) than throwing (81st). Maryland's run defense ranks 87th, so that's an edge. Maryland is better running (72nd in EPA per rush) than throwing (111th). Wisconsin's run defense ranks 46th, so the defense has the better of it. On third down, Wisconsin has the edge: their offense ranks 35th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense they face ranks 76th.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
ScoringEven 1–1
Who scores more, Wisconsin or Maryland?
Wisconsin outscores FBS opponents by 8.1 a game, and Maryland is outscored by 3.6. Wisconsin's offense ranks 95th in scoring, and the Maryland defense it faces ranks 118th in points allowed. Maryland's offense ranks 72nd against Wisconsin's 15th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
OffenseMaryland 9–3
Which offense has the edge?
Wisconsin's best matchup is third downs: their offense ranks 52nd in 3rd down conversion rate, and Maryland's defense ranks 105th in 3rd down conversions allowed. Maryland has no clear edge here. Their best is 3rd down conversion rate, 101st, against a defense ranked 87th in 3rd down conversions allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
DefenseWisconsin 9–2
Which defense has the edge?
Wisconsin's defense is best placed to stop the run: it ranks 6th in yards per carry allowed, and Maryland's offense is middle of the pack in yards per carry (82nd). That's a mismatch. Maryland's defense is best placed to win on early downs: it ranks 51st in SUPLEX allowed, and Wisconsin's offense is bottom-20 in SUPLEX (126th). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
Up frontMaryland 6–5
Who wins up front?
Maryland has the better number in 6 of 11. The biggest gap is stuff rate (runs stopped at or behind the line), where Wisconsin ranks 40th and Maryland 125th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TurnoversMaryland 4–1
Who wins the turnover battle?
Maryland is +0.2 in turnover margin a game and Wisconsin is −0.1. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 2-point edge for Maryland. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.
Per game, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TalentMaryland 6–5
Which team has more talent?
Wisconsin has the more talented roster (30th in the 247Sports talent composite; Maryland is 46th). Wisconsin also plays further above their talent: +2.1 points of SP+ beyond what their roster predicts, to Maryland's −5.7.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Where the data comes from: 247Sports, preseason; 247Sports talent composite against SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026); CollegeFootballData.com returning production, preseason; 247Sports recruiting rankings, via CollegeFootballData.com.
MoneyWisconsin 3–0
Which roster costs more?
Maryland's roster is valued at $23.0M, Wisconsin's at $20.8M. Dollar for dollar, Wisconsin plays better: +2.7 points of SP+ above what their payroll predicts, to −10.3 for Maryland.
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
Where the data comes from: The NIL Standard, preseason estimates; The NIL Standard's preseason roster values against this season's results.
RECEIPTSWisconsin 5–0
Where did each team's wins come from?
Wisconsin is +1.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is luck (+0.8). Maryland is −1.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (−1.0).
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Where the data comes from: our split of every game result, games through Nov 7, 2026, using SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026), the 247Sports talent composite and CollegeFootballData.com returning production.
The trip
How far is Wisconsin traveling?
It's Wisconsin's 5th road trip of the season. Counting this one, they'll have traveled 6,494 miles, there and back, 49th of 138 in FBS.
The transitive property
The shortest chain of real results this season that “proves” each team wins.
Wisconsin wins
31–10Week 10
37–30Week 7
Wisconsin beat Rutgers 31–10 in Week 10. Rutgers beat Maryland 37–30 in Week 7.Maryland wins
34–29Week 10
41–13Week 6
13–10Week 8
30–0Week 9Maryland beat Purdue 34–29 in Week 10. Purdue beat Minnesota 41–13 in Week 6. Minnesota beat Iowa 13–10 in Week 8. Iowa beat Wisconsin 30–0 in Week 9.Each arrow in a chain is a win, with the score and the week. At a neutral site, both teams travel.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com schedules and results, games through Nov 7, 2026. Miles as the crow flies, campus to stadium.
FAQ
Wisconsin at Maryland: questions people ask
Wisconsin vs. Maryland prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Wisconsin, 80% chance to win. SP+ and PRIME favor the same team. Wisconsin's best matchup is their pass defense, 2nd in EPA per pass allowed, against Maryland's passing game at 129th.
Where can I watch Wisconsin vs. Maryland, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 14, 12:00 PM ET at SECU Stadium. It's on FS1.
What's the projected score of Wisconsin vs. Maryland?
SP+ projects Wisconsin 25–17. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for Wisconsin at Maryland?
DraftKings has Wisconsin −8.5, total 43.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the Wisconsin vs. Maryland series history?
Wisconsin leads 4–1. Last meeting: Maryland won 27–10 in 2025.
Who are the players to watch in Wisconsin vs. Maryland?
Wisconsin: Colton Joseph (1,346 passing yards), Abu Sama III (353 rushing yards) and Tyrell Henry (410 receiving yards). Maryland: Malik Washington (2,058 passing yards), DeJuan Williams (437 rushing yards) and Chris Durr Jr. (765 receiving yards). Season totals through Nov 7, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Wisconsin at Maryland?
Wisconsin's is Colton Joseph (1,346 passing yards this season); Maryland's is Malik Washington (2,058 passing yards this season).
Keep going
- Wisconsin: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Maryland: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Illinois at UCLA: the numbers' pick
- Northwestern at Ohio State: the numbers' pick
- Nebraska at Rutgers: the numbers' pick
- Michigan at Oregon: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 11 pick
- The Big Ten: standings, stats and rankings
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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Numbers through the games of Nov 7, 2026. SP+ as of Nov 2, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Recent form
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.