Illinois vs. UCLA Prediction and Pick, Week 11 2026
The numbers sayUCLA76% chance to win
- UCLA's offensive line should win up front. UCLA is top-10 (6th) in line yards per carry, and Illinois is bottom-40 (110th) in line yards allowed per carry.
- UCLA's run game has the edge on Illinois' run defense. UCLA is above average (39th) in EPA per rush, and Illinois is bottom-20 (119th) in EPA per rush allowed.
Updated
Illinois at UCLA
Projected score: Illinois 22, UCLA 32 (total 54).SP+: UCLA by 10.1, 76% chance to win.PRIME: UCLA by 8.7.
- Kickoff
- Fri, Nov 13, 9:00 PM ET
- TV
- Fox
- Where
- Rose Bowl
- Line
- UCLA −10, total 46.5
- Line movement
- Opened UCLA −12.5; moved 2.5 points toward Illinois. Total opened 47.5, down 1.
- Series
- Tied 6–6
- Last meeting
- Illinois 20–14 in 2011
- UCLA injuries
- Nico Iamaleava (QB), out for season
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | UCLA by 10.1 | 76% | 54 |
| PRIME | UCLA by 8.7 | 73% | |
| Elo | UCLA | 79% | |
| The line | UCLA −10, opened −12.5 | 46.5, opened 47.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Mon, Nov 9, 7:09 AM ET.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Illinois or UCLA?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
What do the sportsbooks say?
| Sportsbook | Illinois spread | UCLA spread | Over | Under | Illinois moneyline | UCLA moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +10 −108 | −10 −112 | 46.5 −108 | 46.5 −112 | +300 | −380 |
| FanDuel | +9.5 +100 | −9.5 −122 (best price) | 46.5 −108 | 46.5 −112 | +310 (best price) | −385 |
| BetMGM | +10 −110 | −10 −108 | 46.5 −108 | 46.5 −110 (best price) | +310 (best price) | −375 (best price) |
| Caesars | +10 −113 | −10 −108 | 46.5 −110 | 46.5 −112 | +300 | −390 |
| ESPN BET | +10.5 −120 | −10.5 +100 | 46.5 −105 | 46.5 −115 | +300 | −400 |
| BetRivers | +10.5 −112 | −10.5 −112 | 45.5 −112 | 45.5 −112 | +300 | −400 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +10.5 −110 (best price) | −10.5 −110 | 45.5 −110 (best price) | 45.5 −110 | +300 | −400 |
| Fanatics | +10 −110 | −10 −110 | 46.5 −110 | 46.5 −110 (best price) | +310 (best price) | −400 |
Odds updated Mon., Nov. 9, 7:09 AM ET. The best price on each bet is marked. Prices move fast, so check the book before you bet. Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Illinois vs. UCLA?
All three ratings favor UCLA, by 8.7 points. UCLA's best matchup is their offensive line, 6th in line yards per carry, against Illinois' run-stopping front at 110th. Illinois' way back in is their pass protection, 24th in sacks allowed per dropback, against UCLA's pass rush at 59th. We left out the edges built on Iamaleava, who's out.
Illinois with the ball
IllinoisUCLA with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026; CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Recent form
How have Illinois and UCLA played lately?
Illinois
4–1 in the last five. Won 4 straight.
- W 24–13 vs. Nebraska Week 10
- W 20–17 at Maryland Week 9
- W 21–10 vs. Oregon Week 8
- W 38–37 at Michigan State Week 6
- L 17–24 vs. Purdue Week 5
UCLA
5–0 in the last five. Won 5 straight.
- W 34–20 at Minnesota Week 10
- W 27–0 vs. Nevada Week 9
- W 28–10 vs. Michigan State Week 8
- W 17–7 vs. Wisconsin Week 7
- W 17–15 at Oregon Week 6
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Illinois and UCLA?
Illinois
- Jayshon Platt (#1), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 6)
- Ca'Lil Valentine (RB), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 6)
- Michael Clayton II (#7), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 6)
- Tywan Cox (#32), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 6)
- Grant Beerman (#33), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 6)
- Carter Smith (#48), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 6)
- Kai Pritchard (#53), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 6)
- Demetrius John (#54), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 6)
- TJ McMillen (#55), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 6)
- BJ Thurman (#87), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 6)
UCLA
- Iamaleava (QB), out for season (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7). Knee, hurt vs Oregon. Ty Dieffenbach starts. (as of Oct 24, 2026)
- Rodrick Pleasant (DB), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Mikey Matthews (#7), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Ryan McCulloch (#19), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Jonah Smith (#24), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Curtis Gerrand (#35), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Ashton Sanders (#44), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Sam Yoon (#64), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Jalen Saint Paul (WR), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Jordan Davis (#68), last game: game time decision (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Illinois and UCLA compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Illinois and UCLA are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
The players in charts
How Illinois' and UCLA's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
RatingsUCLA 6–4
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Illinois and UCLA?
On a neutral field, SP+ has UCLA 7.6 points better (17th to 47th). PRIME also has UCLA ahead, by 6.2. Elo, which only sees results, also has UCLA ahead (24th to 49th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Where the data comes from: SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update), last pulled Nov 2, 2026; PRIME (primecfb.com), updated Nov 9, 2026; Elo from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Opponent-adjustedUCLA 11–5
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Illinois' offense ranks 21st in adjusted EPA per play, and the UCLA defense it faces ranks 1st in EPA per play allowed. UCLA's offense ranks 40th against Illinois' 128th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is UCLA's offense against Illinois' defense. The biggest edge on the board is UCLA's offensive line in the run game: 6th in adjusted line yards per carry, against Illinois' 110th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
EPAUCLA 6–2
Who's more efficient, Illinois or UCLA?
Illinois is better throwing (41st in EPA per pass) than running (56th). UCLA's pass defense ranks 2nd, so the defense has the better of it. UCLA is better running (37th in EPA per rush) than throwing (80th). Illinois' run defense ranks 101st, so that's a mismatch. On third down, UCLA has the edge: their offense ranks 28th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense they face ranks 61st.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
ScoringUCLA 2–0
Who scores more, Illinois or UCLA?
Illinois outscores FBS opponents by 5.4 a game, and UCLA by 19.5. Illinois' offense ranks 68th in scoring, and the UCLA defense it faces ranks 8th in points allowed. UCLA's offense ranks 31st against Illinois' 54th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
OffenseUCLA 7–5
Which offense has the edge?
Illinois has no clear edge here. Their best is explosive play rate, 39th, against a defense ranked 19th in explosive plays allowed. UCLA's best matchup is third downs: their offense ranks 26th in 3rd down conversion rate, and Illinois' defense ranks 109th in 3rd down conversions allowed. That's a mismatch.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
DefenseUCLA 11–0
Which defense has the edge?
UCLA's defense is best placed to pick off passes: it ranks 3rd in interception rate, and Illinois' offense is above average at avoiding interceptions (40th).
What opponents managed against them.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
Up frontUCLA 10–2
Who wins up front?
UCLA has the better number in 10 of 12. The biggest gap is big Uglies: defensive front, where UCLA ranks 26th and Illinois 116th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TurnoversUCLA 4–3
Who wins the turnover battle?
UCLA is +1.6 in turnover margin a game and Illinois is 0.0. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 8-point edge for UCLA. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.
Per game, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TalentUCLA 9–2
Which team has more talent?
UCLA has the more talented roster (25th in the 247Sports talent composite; Illinois is 51st). UCLA also plays further above their talent: +7.4 points of SP+ beyond what their roster predicts, to Illinois' +4.2.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Where the data comes from: 247Sports, preseason; 247Sports talent composite against SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026); CollegeFootballData.com returning production, preseason; 247Sports recruiting rankings, via CollegeFootballData.com.
MoneyUCLA 3–0
Which roster costs more?
UCLA's roster is valued at $26.8M, Illinois' at $19.7M. UCLA also plays better per dollar: +2.9 points of SP+ above what their payroll predicts, to +1.9 for Illinois.
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
Where the data comes from: The NIL Standard, preseason estimates; The NIL Standard's preseason roster values against this season's results.
RECEIPTSUCLA 5–0
Where did each team's wins come from?
Illinois is +1.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (+0.8). UCLA is +4.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is luck (+1.7). UCLA's record is running 1.7 wins ahead of their play on luck alone, so they're not as good as the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Where the data comes from: our split of every game result, games through Nov 7, 2026, using SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026), the 247Sports talent composite and CollegeFootballData.com returning production.
The trip
How far is Illinois traveling?
It's Illinois' 4th road trip of the season. Counting this one, they'll have traveled 5,676 miles, there and back, 65th of 138 in FBS.
The transitive property
The shortest chain of real results this season that “proves” each team wins.
Illinois wins
Can't be done. UCLA hasn't lost.UCLA wins
52–38Week 3
24–17Week 5UCLA beat Purdue 52–38 in Week 3. Purdue beat Illinois 24–17 in Week 5.Each arrow in a chain is a win, with the score and the week. At a neutral site, both teams travel.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com schedules and results, games through Nov 7, 2026. Miles as the crow flies, campus to stadium.
FAQ
Illinois at UCLA: questions people ask
Illinois vs. UCLA prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick UCLA, 76% chance to win. SP+ and PRIME favor the same team. UCLA's best matchup is their offensive line, 6th in line yards per carry, against Illinois' run-stopping front at 110th.
Where can I watch Illinois vs. UCLA, and what time is it?
Fri, Nov 13, 9:00 PM ET at Rose Bowl. It's on Fox.
What's the projected score of Illinois vs. UCLA?
SP+ projects UCLA 32–22. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for Illinois at UCLA?
DraftKings has UCLA −10, total 46.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the Illinois vs. UCLA series history?
It's tied 6–6. Last meeting: Illinois won 20–14 in 2011.
Who are the players to watch in Illinois vs. UCLA?
Illinois: Katin Houser (1,955 passing yards), Aidan Laughery (615 rushing yards) and Collin Dixon (905 receiving yards). UCLA: Ty Dieffenbach (986 passing yards), Wayne Knight (789 rushing yards) and Semaj Morgan (469 receiving yards). Season totals through Nov 7, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Illinois at UCLA?
Illinois' is Katin Houser (1,955 passing yards this season); UCLA's is Ty Dieffenbach (986 passing yards this season).
Who's out for Illinois at UCLA?
UCLA: Iamaleava (QB), out for season.
Keep going
- Illinois: every stat, rank and the schedule
- UCLA: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Wisconsin at Maryland: the numbers' pick
- Northwestern at Ohio State: the numbers' pick
- Nebraska at Rutgers: the numbers' pick
- Michigan at Oregon: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 11 pick
- The Big Ten: standings, stats and rankings
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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Numbers through the games of Nov 7, 2026. SP+ as of Nov 2, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Recent form
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.