Northwestern vs. Ohio State Prediction and Pick, Week 11 2026
The numbers sayOhio State80% chance to win
- Ohio State's early-down offense has the edge on Northwestern's early-down defense. Ohio State is above average (33rd) in SUPLEX, and Northwestern is bottom-40 (91st) in SUPLEX allowed.
- Ohio State's offensive line has the edge on Northwestern's run-stopping front. Ohio State is above average (41st) in line yards per carry, and Northwestern is middle of the pack (77th) in line yards allowed per carry.
Ohio State is without QB Julian Sayin (2,007 passing yards). Ohio State has played 2 games without Sayin and lost both by 13 (they won by 26 ppg with him). The ratings have mostly caught up to that, so he barely moves the needle now.
That knocks the pick down a tier, from Lean to Stay away.
Updated
Northwestern at Ohio State
Projected score: Northwestern 16, Ohio State 34 (total 50).SP+: Ohio State by 17.4, 89% chance to win.PRIME: Ohio State by 8.9.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 14, 12:00 PM ET
- TV
- Fox
- Where
- Ohio Stadium
- Line
- Ohio State −11.5, total 47.5
- Line movement
- Opened Ohio State −9.5; moved 2 points toward Ohio State. Total opened 48.5, down 1.
- Series
- Ohio State leads 66–14–1
- Last meeting
- Ohio State 31–7 in 2024
- Ohio State injuries
- Sayin (QB), out indefinitely
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Ohio State by 17.4 | 89% | 50 |
| PRIME | Ohio State by 8.9 | 74% | |
| Elo | Ohio State | 86% | |
| The line | Ohio State −11.5, opened −9.5 | 47.5, opened 48.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Mon, Nov 9, 7:09 AM ET.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Northwestern or Ohio State?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
What do the sportsbooks say?
| Sportsbook | Northwestern spread | Ohio State spread | Over | Under | Northwestern moneyline | Ohio State moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +11.5 −108 (best price) | −11.5 −112 | 47.5 −105 (best price) | 47.5 −115 | +340 | −440 |
| FanDuel | +10.5 −106 | −10.5 −114 (best price) | 47.5 −105 (best price) | 47.5 −115 | +330 | −430 (best price) |
| BetMGM | +11.5 −108 (best price) | −11.5 −110 | 47.5 −105 (best price) | 47.5 −112 | +340 | −450 |
| Caesars | +11.5 −114 | −11.5 −106 | 47.5 −108 | 47.5 −112 | +330 | −440 |
| ESPN BET | +11.5 −110 | −11.5 −110 | 47.5 −105 (best price) | 47.5 −115 | +360 (best price) | −500 |
| BetRivers | +11.5 −110 | −11.5 −113 | 47.5 −113 | 47.5 −110 (best price) | +335 | −455 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +11.5 −110 | −11.5 −110 | 47.5 −110 | 47.5 −110 (best price) | +325 | −450 |
| Fanatics | +11.5 −110 | −11.5 −110 | 47.5 −105 (best price) | 47.5 −115 | +360 (best price) | −475 |
Odds updated Mon., Nov. 9, 7:09 AM ET. The best price on each bet is marked. Prices move fast, so check the book before you bet. Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Northwestern vs. Ohio State?
All three ratings favor Ohio State, by 8.9 points. Ohio State's best matchup is their early-down offense, 33rd in SUPLEX, against Northwestern's early-down defense at 91st. Northwestern's way back in is their ball security, 5th in interceptions thrown per pass, against Ohio State's takeaway defense at 114th. We left out the edges built on Sayin, who's out.
Northwestern with the ball
Northwestern
Ohio StateNorthwesternNorthwesternOhio State with the ball
Ohio StateNorthwesternOhio StateOhio StateOhio StateOhio StateOhio StateEach row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026; CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Recent form
How have Northwestern and Ohio State played lately?
Northwestern
3–2 in the last five. Lost 2 straight.
- L 10–24 vs. Iowa Week 10
- L 26–34 at Oregon Week 9
- W 42–14 vs. Rutgers Week 8
- W 24–21 at Michigan State Week 7
- W 45–14 vs. Ball State Week 6
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Northwestern and Ohio State?
Northwestern
- Aidan Chiles (QB), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Josh Fussell (#13), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Daniel Anderson (#22), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Jon Jon Stevens Jr. (#29), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Max Mohring (#37), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Jason Reynolds II (#40), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Robby Preckel (#41), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Qayvier Johnson (#50), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Ezomo Oratokhai (#62), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Jacob Miller (#79), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Chris Petrucci (#81), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
Ohio State
- Sayin (QB), out indefinitely (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7). Throwing shoulder, hurt Oct. 17 at Indiana. Ryan Day says Ohio State is planning to be without him for the rest of the season. Day hadn't named a starter for USC as of Oct. 26: true freshman Luke Fahey or Tavien St. Clair. The Big Ten report lists him out for the USC game; we keep "out indefinitely" because of Day's rest-of-season comment. (as of Oct 29, 2026)
- Brandon Inniss (WR), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Brock Boyd (#11), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Ja’Kobi Jackson (#24), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Deshawn Stewart (#29), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Eli Lee (#33), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Jaxon Powell (#60), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Maxence LeBlanc (#88), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Northwestern and Ohio State compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Northwestern and Ohio State are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
The players in charts
How Northwestern's and Ohio State's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
RatingsOhio State 10–0
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Northwestern and Ohio State?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Ohio State 14.9 points better (1st to 20th). PRIME also has Ohio State ahead, by 6.4. Elo, which only sees results, also has Ohio State ahead (6th to 30th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Where the data comes from: SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update), last pulled Nov 2, 2026; PRIME (primecfb.com), updated Nov 9, 2026; Elo from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Opponent-adjustedEven 8–8
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Northwestern's offense ranks 13th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Ohio State defense it faces ranks 16th in EPA per play allowed. Ohio State's offense ranks 17th against Northwestern's 43rd-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Ohio State's offense against Northwestern's defense. The biggest edge on the board is Ohio State's efficiency: 9th in adjusted success rate, against Northwestern's 81st-ranked defense. That's a mismatch.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
EPAEven 4–4
Who's more efficient, Northwestern or Ohio State?
Northwestern is better running (12th in EPA per rush) than throwing (34th). Ohio State's run defense ranks 14th, so that's strength on strength. Ohio State is better throwing (18th in EPA per pass) than running (62nd). Northwestern's pass defense ranks 40th. On third down, Northwestern has the edge: their offense ranks 47th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense they face ranks 92nd.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
ScoringOhio State 2–0
Who scores more, Northwestern or Ohio State?
Northwestern outscores FBS opponents by 11.7 a game, and Ohio State by 17.4. Northwestern's offense ranks 49th in scoring, and the Ohio State defense it faces ranks 21st in points allowed. Ohio State's offense ranks 21st against Northwestern's 27th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
OffenseNorthwestern 7–5
Which offense has the edge?
Northwestern's best matchup is big plays: their offense ranks 5th in explosive play rate, and Ohio State's defense ranks 46th in explosive plays allowed. Ohio State's best matchup is staying on schedule: their offense ranks 26th in success rate, and Northwestern's defense ranks 85th in success rate allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
DefenseOhio State 9–2
Which defense has the edge?
Northwestern's defense is best placed to pick off passes: it ranks 35th in interception rate, and Ohio State's offense is middle of the pack at avoiding interceptions (92nd).
What opponents managed against them.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
Up frontOhio State 9–3
Who wins up front?
Ohio State has the better number in 9 of 12. The biggest gap is open-field yards per carry, where Northwestern ranks 15th and Ohio State 128th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TurnoversNorthwestern 5–1
Who wins the turnover battle?
Northwestern is +1.3 in turnover margin a game and Ohio State is +0.1. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 6-point edge for Northwestern. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it. Fumble recoveries are mostly luck, and Ohio State's takeaways lean on them (0.8 of 1.2 a game).
Per game, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TalentOhio State 7–4
Which team has more talent?
Ohio State has the more talented roster (5th in the 247Sports talent composite; Northwestern is 60th). But Northwestern plays further above their talent: +12.1 points of SP+ beyond what their roster predicts, to Ohio State's +9.7.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Where the data comes from: 247Sports, preseason; 247Sports talent composite against SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026); CollegeFootballData.com returning production, preseason; 247Sports recruiting rankings, via CollegeFootballData.com.
MoneyNorthwestern 2–1
Which roster costs more?
Ohio State's roster is valued at $37.9M, Northwestern's at $19.9M. Ohio State also plays better per dollar: +9.5 points of SP+ above what their payroll predicts, to +8.6 for Northwestern.
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
Where the data comes from: The NIL Standard, preseason estimates; The NIL Standard's preseason roster values against this season's results.
RECEIPTSEven 2–2
Where did each team's wins come from?
Northwestern is +1.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (+1.5). Ohio State is +1.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (+2.2). Ohio State's record is 1.6 wins worse than their play on bad luck, so they're better than the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Where the data comes from: our split of every game result, games through Nov 7, 2026, using SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026), the 247Sports talent composite and CollegeFootballData.com returning production.
The trip
How far is Northwestern traveling?
It's Northwestern's 4th road trip of the season. Counting this one, they'll have traveled 4,872 miles, there and back, 75th of 138 in FBS.
The transitive property
The shortest chain of real results this season that “proves” each team wins.
Northwestern wins
34–13Week 5
31–17Week 9
24–17Week 5
21–10Week 8
41–28Week 10Northwestern beat Penn State 34–13 in Week 5. Penn State beat Purdue 31–17 in Week 9. Purdue beat Illinois 24–17 in Week 5. Illinois beat Oregon 21–10 in Week 8. Oregon beat Ohio State 41–28 in Week 10.Ohio State wins
31–14Week 5
24–10Week 10Ohio State beat Iowa 31–14 in Week 5. Iowa beat Northwestern 24–10 in Week 10.Each arrow in a chain is a win, with the score and the week. At a neutral site, both teams travel.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com schedules and results, games through Nov 7, 2026. Miles as the crow flies, campus to stadium.
FAQ
Northwestern at Ohio State: questions people ask
Northwestern vs. Ohio State prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Ohio State, 80% chance to win. SP+ and PRIME favor the same team. Ohio State's best matchup is their early-down offense, 33rd in SUPLEX, against Northwestern's early-down defense at 91st.
Where can I watch Northwestern vs. Ohio State, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 14, 12:00 PM ET at Ohio Stadium. It's on Fox.
What's the projected score of Northwestern vs. Ohio State?
SP+ projects Ohio State 34–16. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for Northwestern at Ohio State?
DraftKings has Ohio State −11.5, total 47.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the Northwestern vs. Ohio State series history?
Ohio State leads 66–14–1. Last meeting: Ohio State won 31–7 in 2024.
Who are the players to watch in Northwestern vs. Ohio State?
Northwestern: Aidan Chiles (1,898 passing yards), Caleb Komolafe (643 rushing yards) and Griffin Wilde (813 receiving yards). Ohio State: Sayin (2,007 passing yards), Bo Jackson (685 rushing yards) and Jeremiah Smith (1,200 receiving yards). Season totals through Nov 7, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Northwestern at Ohio State?
Northwestern's is Aidan Chiles (1,898 passing yards this season); Ohio State's is Sayin (2,007 passing yards this season).
Who's out for Northwestern at Ohio State?
Ohio State: Sayin (QB), out indefinitely.
Keep going
- Northwestern: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Ohio State: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Illinois at UCLA: the numbers' pick
- Wisconsin at Maryland: the numbers' pick
- Nebraska at Rutgers: the numbers' pick
- Michigan at Oregon: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 11 pick
- The Big Ten: standings, stats and rankings
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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Numbers through the games of Nov 7, 2026. SP+ as of Nov 2, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Recent form
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.