Nebraska vs. Rutgers Prediction and Pick, Week 11 2026
The numbers sayNebraska91% chance to win
- Nebraska should run it. Nebraska is top-10 (6th) in EPA per rush, and Rutgers is bottom-20 (122nd) in EPA per rush allowed.
- Nebraska should stay on the field on 3rd down. Nebraska is top-25 (16th) in 3rd down conversion, and Rutgers is bottom-20 (128th) in 3rd downs allowed.
Rutgers is without QB Dylan Lonergan (1,066 passing yards). Rutgers has played 2 games without Lonergan and lost both by 14 (they lost by 4 ppg with him). The ratings have mostly caught up to that, so he barely moves the needle now.
Updated
Nebraska at Rutgers
Projected score: Nebraska 39, Rutgers 21 (total 60).SP+: Nebraska by 17.8, 90% chance to win.PRIME: Nebraska by 21.7.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 14, 12:30 PM ET
- TV
- BTN
- Where
- SHI Stadium
- Line
- Nebraska −13.5, total 52.5
- Line movement
- Opened Nebraska −12.5; moved 1 point toward Nebraska. Total opened 54.5, down 2.
- Series
- Nebraska leads 7–0
- Last meeting
- Nebraska 14–7 in 2024
- Rutgers injuries
- Lonergan (QB), out
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Nebraska by 17.8 | 90% | 60 |
| PRIME | Nebraska by 21.7 | 94% | |
| Elo | Nebraska | 87% | |
| The line | Nebraska −13.5, opened −12.5 | 52.5, opened 54.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Mon, Nov 9, 7:09 AM ET.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Nebraska or Rutgers?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
What do the sportsbooks say?
| Sportsbook | Nebraska spread | Rutgers spread | Over | Under | Nebraska moneyline | Rutgers moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | −13.5 −115 | +13.5 −105 | 52.5 −112 | 52.5 −108 | −575 (best price) | +425 |
| FanDuel | −13.5 −122 | +13.5 +100 (best price) | 53.5 −104 | 53.5 −118 | −580 | +440 |
| BetMGM | −13.5 −110 (best price) | +13.5 −108 | 52.5 −110 (best price) | 52.5 −108 | −600 | +450 (best price) |
| Caesars | −13.5 −117 | +13.5 −103 | 53 −112 | 53 −112 | −590 | +425 |
| ESPN BET | −13.5 −110 (best price) | +13.5 −110 | 53.5 −110 | 53.5 −110 (best price) | −650 | +425 |
| BetRivers | −13.5 −113 | +13.5 −110 | 52.5 −114 | 52.5 −109 | −670 | +450 (best price) |
| Hard Rock Bet | −13.5 −110 (best price) | +13.5 −110 | 52.5 −110 (best price) | 52.5 −110 | −650 | +450 (best price) |
| Fanatics | −13.5 −110 (best price) | +13.5 −110 | 53 −110 | 53 −110 | −600 | +440 |
Odds updated Mon., Nov. 9, 7:09 AM ET. The best price on each bet is marked. Prices move fast, so check the book before you bet. Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Nebraska vs. Rutgers?
All three ratings favor Nebraska, by 21.7 points, and it isn't close. Nebraska's best matchup is their run game, 6th in EPA per rush, against Rutgers' run defense at 122nd. Rutgers doesn't have a unit with a clear edge over the one it faces. We left out the edges built on Lonergan, who's out.
Nebraska with the ball
NebraskaNebraskaNebraskaNebraskaNebraskaNebraskaNebraskaNebraskaNebraskaRutgers with the ball
NebraskaNebraskaNebraskaNebraskaNebraskaNebraskaNebraskaNebraskaNebraskaNebraskaEach row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026; CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Recent form
How have Nebraska and Rutgers played lately?
Nebraska
1–4 in the last five. Lost 4 straight.
- L 13–24 at Illinois Week 10
- L 10–17 vs. Washington Week 9
- L 14–17 at Oregon Week 7
- L 17–20 vs. Indiana Week 6
- W 48–23 vs. Maryland Week 5
Rutgers
1–4 in the last five. Lost 3 straight.
- L 10–31 at Wisconsin Week 10
- L 21–28 vs. Michigan Week 9
- L 14–42 at Northwestern Week 8
- W 37–30 at Maryland Week 7
- L 15–47 vs. Indiana Week 5
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Nebraska and Rutgers?
Nebraska
- Anthony Jones Jr. (#5), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 6)
- Larry Miles (#17), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 6)
- Kahmir Prescott (#19), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 6)
- Vincent Genatone (#30), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 6)
- Jase Reynolds (#52), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 6)
- Jacob Bower (#54), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 6)
- Gabe Moore (#95), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 6)
- Jamir Conn (S), last game: game time decision (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 6)
Rutgers
- Lonergan (QB), out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7). Left the Oct. 24 game at Northwestern in the first quarter after a blow to the head (AP via La Nación; ClutchPoints). The Big Ten report lists him out. No timeline found. (as of Oct 30, 2026)
- Kaj Sanders (#1), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- KJ Duff (WR), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Zahmir Dawud (#12), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Joey Kopec (#38), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Tyler Needham (#56), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Kwabena Asamoah (#69), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- J'Dan Burnett (#94), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Abram Wright (#6), last game: game time decision (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Ty Morris (#10), last game: game time decision (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Dane Pizzaro (#29), last game: game time decision (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Nebraska and Rutgers compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Nebraska and Rutgers are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
The players in charts
How Nebraska's and Rutgers' players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
RatingsNebraska 8–2
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Nebraska and Rutgers?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Nebraska 20.3 points better (15th to 95th). PRIME also has Nebraska ahead, by 24.2. Elo, which only sees results, also has Nebraska ahead (29th to 99th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Where the data comes from: SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update), last pulled Nov 2, 2026; PRIME (primecfb.com), updated Nov 9, 2026; Elo from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Opponent-adjustedNebraska 15–1
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Nebraska's offense ranks 35th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Rutgers defense it faces ranks 131st in EPA per play allowed. Rutgers' offense ranks 78th against Nebraska's 23rd-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Nebraska's offense against Rutgers' defense. The biggest edge on the board is Nebraska's run game: 6th in adjusted EPA per rush, against Rutgers' 122nd-ranked defense. That's a mismatch.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
EPANebraska 7–1
Who's more efficient, Nebraska or Rutgers?
Nebraska is better running (9th in EPA per rush) than throwing (83rd). Rutgers' run defense ranks 127th, so that's a mismatch. Rutgers is better throwing (73rd in EPA per pass) than running (93rd). Nebraska's pass defense ranks 5th, so the defense has the better of it. On third down, Nebraska has the edge: their offense ranks 10th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense they face ranks 132nd.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
ScoringNebraska 2–0
Who scores more, Nebraska or Rutgers?
Nebraska outscores FBS opponents by 13.6 a game, and Rutgers is outscored by 6.6. Nebraska's offense ranks 53rd in scoring, and the Rutgers defense it faces ranks 125th in points allowed. Rutgers' offense ranks 90th against Nebraska's 17th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Nebraska's offense against Rutgers' defense.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
OffenseNebraska 11–1
Which offense has the edge?
Nebraska's best matchup is third downs: their offense ranks 16th in 3rd down conversion rate, and Rutgers' defense ranks 128th in 3rd down conversions allowed. That's a mismatch. Rutgers has no clear edge here. Their best is yards per carry, 83rd, against a defense ranked 28th in yards per carry allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
DefenseNebraska 11–0
Which defense has the edge?
Nebraska's defense is best placed to get off the field on third down: it ranks 1st in 3rd down conversions allowed, and Rutgers' offense is middle of the pack in 3rd down conversion rate (85th). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
Up frontNebraska 9–2
Who wins up front?
Nebraska has the better number in 9 of 11. The biggest gap is line yards allowed per carry, where Nebraska ranks 14th and Rutgers 111th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TurnoversNebraska 6–0
Who wins the turnover battle?
Nebraska is +0.3 in turnover margin a game and Rutgers is −0.7. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 5-point edge for Nebraska. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.
Per game, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TalentNebraska 8–3
Which team has more talent?
Nebraska has the more talented roster (22nd in the 247Sports talent composite; Rutgers is 48th). Nebraska also plays further above their talent: +7.6 points of SP+ beyond what their roster predicts, to Rutgers' −7.8.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Where the data comes from: 247Sports, preseason; 247Sports talent composite against SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026); CollegeFootballData.com returning production, preseason; 247Sports recruiting rankings, via CollegeFootballData.com.
MoneyNebraska 3–0
Which roster costs more?
Nebraska's roster is valued at $23.3M, Rutgers' at $20.9M. Nebraska also plays better per dollar: +6.8 points of SP+ above what their payroll predicts, to −11.1 for Rutgers.
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
Where the data comes from: The NIL Standard, preseason estimates; The NIL Standard's preseason roster values against this season's results.
RECEIPTSNebraska 4–1
Where did each team's wins come from?
Nebraska is +0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is luck (−1.8). Rutgers is −2.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (−1.3). Nebraska's record is 1.8 wins worse than their play on bad luck, so they're better than the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Where the data comes from: our split of every game result, games through Nov 7, 2026, using SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026), the 247Sports talent composite and CollegeFootballData.com returning production.
The trip
How far is Nebraska traveling?
It's Nebraska's 4th road trip of the season. Counting this one, they'll have traveled 7,220 miles, there and back, 39th of 138 in FBS.
The transitive property
The shortest chain of real results this season that “proves” each team wins.
Nebraska wins
31–13Week 4
15–6Week 10
28–21Week 9Nebraska beat Michigan State 31–13 in Week 4. Michigan State beat Michigan 15–6 in Week 10. Michigan beat Rutgers 28–21 in Week 9.Rutgers wins
37–30Week 7
34–29Week 10
24–17Week 5
24–13Week 10Rutgers beat Maryland 37–30 in Week 7. Maryland beat Purdue 34–29 in Week 10. Purdue beat Illinois 24–17 in Week 5. Illinois beat Nebraska 24–13 in Week 10.Each arrow in a chain is a win, with the score and the week. At a neutral site, both teams travel.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com schedules and results, games through Nov 7, 2026. Miles as the crow flies, campus to stadium.
FAQ
Nebraska at Rutgers: questions people ask
Nebraska vs. Rutgers prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Nebraska, 91% chance to win. SP+ and PRIME favor the same team. Nebraska's best matchup is their run game, 6th in EPA per rush, against Rutgers' run defense at 122nd.
Where can I watch Nebraska vs. Rutgers, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 14, 12:30 PM ET at SHI Stadium. It's on BTN.
What's the projected score of Nebraska vs. Rutgers?
SP+ projects Nebraska 39–21. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for Nebraska at Rutgers?
DraftKings has Nebraska −13.5, total 52.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the Nebraska vs. Rutgers series history?
Nebraska leads 7–0. Last meeting: Nebraska won 14–7 in 2024.
Who are the players to watch in Nebraska vs. Rutgers?
Nebraska: Anthony Colandrea (2,108 passing yards), Jamal Rule (532 rushing yards) and Kwazi Gilmer (603 receiving yards). Rutgers: Lonergan (1,066 passing yards), Antwan Raymond (789 rushing yards) and KJ Duff (774 receiving yards). Season totals through Nov 7, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Nebraska at Rutgers?
Nebraska's is Anthony Colandrea (2,108 passing yards this season); Rutgers' is Lonergan (1,066 passing yards this season).
Who's out for Nebraska at Rutgers?
Rutgers: Lonergan (QB), out.
Keep going
- Nebraska: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Rutgers: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Illinois at UCLA: the numbers' pick
- Wisconsin at Maryland: the numbers' pick
- Northwestern at Ohio State: the numbers' pick
- Michigan at Oregon: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 11 pick
- The Big Ten: standings, stats and rankings
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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Numbers through the games of Nov 7, 2026. SP+ as of Nov 2, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Recent form
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.