Michigan vs. Oregon Prediction and Pick, Week 11 2026
The numbers sayOregon71% chance to win
- Oregon's early-down defense has the edge on Michigan's early-down offense. Oregon is above average (39th) in SUPLEX allowed, and Michigan is bottom-20 (123rd) in SUPLEX.
Updated
Michigan at Oregon
Projected score: Michigan 14, Oregon 21 (total 35).SP+: Oregon by 8.0, 72% chance to win.PRIME: Oregon by 5.6.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 14, 3:30 PM ET
- TV
- FS1
- Where
- Autzen Stadium
- Line
- Oregon −10.5, total 39.5
- Line movement
- Opened Oregon −13.5; moved 3 points toward Michigan. Total opened 53.5, down 14.
- Series
- Tied 3–3
- Last meeting
- Oregon 38–17 in 2024
- Oregon injuries
- Dante Moore (QB), out for season
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Oregon by 8.0 | 72% | 35 |
| PRIME | Oregon by 5.6 | 66% | |
| Elo | Oregon | 77% | |
| The line | Oregon −10.5, opened −13.5 | 39.5, opened 53.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Mon, Nov 9, 7:09 AM ET.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Michigan or Oregon?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
What do the sportsbooks say?
| Sportsbook | Michigan spread | Oregon spread | Over | Under | Michigan moneyline | Oregon moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +10.5 −112 | −10.5 −108 | 39.5 −112 | 39.5 −108 | +350 | −455 |
| FanDuel | +10.5 −110 | −10.5 −110 | 40.5 +100 | 40.5 −122 | +330 | −430 (best price) |
| BetMGM | +10.5 −110 | −10.5 −110 | 39.5 −110 (best price) | 39.5 −108 | +340 | −450 |
| Caesars | +10.5 −112 | −10.5 −112 | 39.5 −110 (best price) | 39.5 −109 | +350 | −460 |
| ESPN BET | +10.5 −115 | −10.5 −105 (best price) | 39.5 −115 | 39.5 −105 | +340 | −450 |
| BetRivers | +11.5 −113 | −11.5 −110 | 40.5 −110 | 40.5 −113 | +380 (best price) | −560 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +11.5 −110 (best price) | −11.5 −110 | 40.5 −110 | 40.5 −110 (best price) | +375 | −525 |
| Fanatics | +10.5 −110 | −10.5 −110 | 39.5 −115 | 39.5 −105 | +340 | −450 |
Odds updated Mon., Nov. 9, 7:09 AM ET. The best price on each bet is marked. Prices move fast, so check the book before you bet. Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Michigan vs. Oregon?
All three ratings favor Oregon, by 5.6 points. Oregon's best matchup is their takeaway defense, 25th in interceptions per pass, against Michigan's ball security at 130th. Michigan's way back in is their run-stopping front, 19th in line yards allowed per carry, against Oregon's offensive line at 134th.
Michigan with the ball
Oregon with the ball
MichiganMichiganMichiganMichiganMichiganMichiganMichiganEach row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026; CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Recent form
How have Michigan and Oregon played lately?
Michigan
2–3 in the last five.
- L 6–15 vs. Michigan State Week 10
- W 28–21 at Rutgers Week 9
- L 6–13 vs. Indiana Week 8
- W 21–18 vs. Penn State Week 7
- L 14–20 at Minnesota Week 5
Oregon
3–2 in the last five. Won 2 straight.
- W 41–28 at Ohio State Week 10
- W 34–26 vs. Northwestern Week 9
- L 10–21 at Illinois Week 8
- W 17–14 vs. Nebraska Week 7
- L 15–17 vs. UCLA Week 6
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Michigan and Oregon?
Michigan
- Kendrick Bell (#0), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Shamari Earls (#2), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Braydon Alford (#22), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Micah Ka'apana (#25), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Julius Holly (#37), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Ace Hamilton (#52), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Andrew Sprague (#54), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Hogan Hansen (TE), last game: game time decision (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Bryce Underwood (QB), hasn't played since Week 8 (124 pass attempts in 7 games before that)
Oregon
- Dante Moore (QB), out for season (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7). Concussion Sept. 26 vs USC. Dan Lanning said Oct. 27 that Moore isn't expected back this season. Dylan Raiola starts, with Brock Thomas behind him. The Big Ten report lists him out for this week; we keep "out for season" because of Lanning's comment. (as of Oct 29, 2026)
- Jordon Davison (RB), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Messiah Hampton (WR), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Andrew Olesh (#19), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Aaron Flowers (#21), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Brayden Platt (#23), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Matthew Johnson (#55), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Trent Ferguson (#56), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Dave Iuli (#74), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Jeremiah McClellan (WR), last game: game time decision (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Michigan and Oregon compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Michigan and Oregon are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
The players in charts
How Michigan's and Oregon's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
RatingsOregon 8–2
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Michigan and Oregon?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Oregon 5.5 points better (12th to 27th). PRIME also has Oregon ahead, by 3.1. Elo, which only sees results, also has Oregon ahead (16th to 37th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Where the data comes from: SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update), last pulled Nov 2, 2026; PRIME (primecfb.com), updated Nov 9, 2026; Elo from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Opponent-adjustedMichigan 9–7
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Michigan's offense ranks 82nd in adjusted EPA per play, and the Oregon defense it faces ranks 10th in EPA per play allowed. Oregon's offense ranks 71st against Michigan's 12th-ranked defense. Both defenses have the edge on the offenses they face. The biggest edge on the board is Michigan's big plays: 79th in adjusted explosiveness, against Oregon's 104th-ranked defense. Adjust for opponents and Oregon's defense climbs from 43rd to 10th in EPA per play allowed: it has done its work against good offenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
EPAMichigan 6–2
Who's more efficient, Michigan or Oregon?
Michigan is about as good throwing (88th in EPA per pass) as running (100th). Oregon is better throwing (53rd in EPA per pass) than running (122nd). Michigan's pass defense ranks 5th, so the defense has the better of it.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
ScoringEven 1–1
Who scores more, Michigan or Oregon?
Michigan outscores FBS opponents by 3.4 a game, and Oregon by 12.0. Michigan's offense ranks 126th in scoring, and the Oregon defense it faces ranks 49th in points allowed. Oregon's offense ranks 29th against Michigan's 14th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
OffenseOregon 11–1
Which offense has the edge?
Michigan has no clear edge here. Their best is 3rd down conversion rate, 49th, against a defense ranked 26th in 3rd down conversions allowed. Oregon has no clear edge here. Their best is explosive play rate, 32nd, against a defense ranked 5th in explosive plays allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
DefenseMichigan 9–2
Which defense has the edge?
Michigan's defense is best placed to stop the run: it ranks 7th in yards per carry allowed, and Oregon's offense is bottom-40 in yards per carry (107th). That's a mismatch. Oregon's defense is best placed to pick off passes: it ranks 25th in interception rate, and Michigan's offense is bottom-20 at avoiding interceptions (130th). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
Up frontMichigan 10–2
Who wins up front?
Michigan has the better number in 10 of 12. The biggest gap is stuff rate (runs stopped at or behind the line), where Michigan ranks 48th and Oregon 135th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TurnoversOregon 6–1
Who wins the turnover battle?
Oregon is 0.0 in turnover margin a game and Michigan is −0.9. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 4-point edge for Oregon. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.
Per game, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TalentOregon 9–2
Which team has more talent?
Oregon has the more talented roster (3rd in the 247Sports talent composite; Michigan is 11th). But Michigan plays further above their talent: −2.8 points of SP+ beyond what their roster predicts, to Oregon's −3.2.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Where the data comes from: 247Sports, preseason; 247Sports talent composite against SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026); CollegeFootballData.com returning production, preseason; 247Sports recruiting rankings, via CollegeFootballData.com.
MoneyMichigan 3–0
Which roster costs more?
Oregon's roster is valued at $44.3M, Michigan's at $33.3M. Dollar for dollar, Michigan plays better: −4.8 points of SP+ above what their payroll predicts, to −5.5 for Oregon.
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
Where the data comes from: The NIL Standard, preseason estimates; The NIL Standard's preseason roster values against this season's results.
RECEIPTSOregon 4–1
Where did each team's wins come from?
Michigan is +0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is roster (+2.0). Oregon is +1.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is roster (+2.6). Michigan's record is 1.3 wins worse than their play on bad luck, so they're better than the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Where the data comes from: our split of every game result, games through Nov 7, 2026, using SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026), the 247Sports talent composite and CollegeFootballData.com returning production.
The trip
How far is Michigan traveling?
It's Michigan's 3rd road trip of the season. Counting this one, they'll have traveled 5,944 miles, there and back, 61st of 138 in FBS.
The transitive property
The shortest chain of real results this season that “proves” each team wins.
Michigan wins
21–18Week 7
31–17Week 9
24–17Week 5
21–10Week 8
Michigan beat Penn State 21–18 in Week 7. Penn State beat Purdue 31–17 in Week 9. Purdue beat Illinois 24–17 in Week 5. Illinois beat Oregon 21–10 in Week 8.Oregon wins
41–28Week 10
31–14Week 5
20–19Week 4Oregon beat Ohio State 41–28 in Week 10. Ohio State beat Iowa 31–14 in Week 5. Iowa beat Michigan 20–19 in Week 4.Each arrow in a chain is a win, with the score and the week. At a neutral site, both teams travel.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com schedules and results, games through Nov 7, 2026. Miles as the crow flies, campus to stadium.
FAQ
Michigan at Oregon: questions people ask
Michigan vs. Oregon prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Oregon, 71% chance to win. SP+ and PRIME favor the same team. Oregon's best matchup is their takeaway defense, 25th in interceptions per pass, against Michigan's ball security at 130th.
Where can I watch Michigan vs. Oregon, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 14, 3:30 PM ET at Autzen Stadium. It's on FS1.
What's the projected score of Michigan vs. Oregon?
SP+ projects Oregon 21–14. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for Michigan at Oregon?
DraftKings has Oregon −10.5, total 39.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the Michigan vs. Oregon series history?
It's tied 3–3. Last meeting: Oregon won 38–17 in 2024.
Who are the players to watch in Michigan vs. Oregon?
Michigan: Bryce Underwood (924 passing yards), Savion Hiter (331 rushing yards) and JJ Buchanan (637 receiving yards). Oregon: Dylan Raiola (1,354 passing yards), Dierre Hill Jr. (474 rushing yards) and Dakorien Moore (601 receiving yards). Season totals through Nov 7, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Michigan at Oregon?
Michigan's is Bryce Underwood (924 passing yards this season); Oregon's is Dylan Raiola (1,354 passing yards this season).
Who's out for Michigan at Oregon?
Michigan: Bryce Underwood (QB) hasn't played since Week 8. Oregon: Dante Moore (QB), out for season.
Keep going
- Michigan: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Oregon: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Illinois at UCLA: the numbers' pick
- Wisconsin at Maryland: the numbers' pick
- Northwestern at Ohio State: the numbers' pick
- Nebraska at Rutgers: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 11 pick
- The Big Ten: standings, stats and rankings
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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Numbers through the games of Nov 7, 2026. SP+ as of Nov 2, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Recent form
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.