Nevada vs. Northern Illinois Prediction and Pick, Week 11 2026
83% chance to win
- Nevada's 3rd down defense has the edge on Northern Illinois' 3rd down offense. Nevada is above average (28th) in 3rd downs allowed, and Northern Illinois is bottom-20 (120th) in 3rd down conversion.
- Nevada's pass rush has the edge on Northern Illinois' pass protection. Nevada is above average (28th) in sack rate, and Northern Illinois is bottom-20 (119th) in sacks allowed per dropback.
Updated
Nevada at Northern Illinois
Projected score: Nevada 33, Northern Illinois 13 (total 46).SP+: Nevada by 19.8, 92% chance to win.PRIME: Nevada by 16.7.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 14, 3:30 PM ET
- TV
- MW+
- Where
- Huskie Stadium
- Line
- Nevada −7, total 46.5
- Line movement
- Opened Nevada −10.5; moved 3.5 points toward Northern Illinois.
- Series
- Tied 1–1
- Last meeting
- Nevada 35–31 in 1994
- Nevada injuries
- Carter Jones (QB), questionable
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Nevada by 19.8 | 92% | 46 |
| PRIME | Nevada by 16.7 | 88% | |
| Elo | Nevada | 78% | |
| The line | Nevada −7, opened −10.5 | 46.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Mon, Nov 9, 7:09 AM ET.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Nevada or Northern Illinois?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
What do the sportsbooks say?
| Sportsbook | Nevada spread | Northern Illinois spread | Over | Under | Nevada moneyline | Northern Illinois moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | −7 −115 | +7 −105 | 46.5 −108 | 46.5 −112 | −310 | +250 |
| FanDuel | −7.5 −110 | +7.5 −110 (best price) | 46.5 −106 | 46.5 −114 | −300 | +245 |
| BetMGM | −7.5 −102 | +7.5 −118 | 46.5 −108 | 46.5 −110 (best price) | −295 | +240 |
| Caesars | −7 −114 (best price) | +7 −106 | 46.5 −107 | 46.5 −113 | −320 | +250 |
| ESPN BET | −7.5 −105 | +7.5 −115 | 46.5 −105 (best price) | 46.5 −115 | −290 (best price) | +240 |
| BetRivers | −7.5 −113 | +7.5 −110 (best price) | 46.5 −108 | 46.5 −115 | −360 | +265 (best price) |
| Hard Rock Bet | −7.5 −110 | +7.5 −110 (best price) | 46.5 −105 (best price) | 46.5 −115 | −350 | +260 |
| Fanatics | −7 −115 | +7 −105 | 46.5 −110 | 46.5 −110 (best price) | −300 | +240 |
Odds updated Mon., Nov. 9, 7:09 AM ET. The best price on each bet is marked. Prices move fast, so check the book before you bet. Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Nevada vs. Northern Illinois?
All three ratings favor Nevada, by 16.7 points, and it isn't close. Nevada's best matchup is their 3rd down defense, 28th in 3rd downs allowed, against Northern Illinois' 3rd down offense at 120th. Northern Illinois' way back in is their takeaway defense, 24th in interceptions per pass, against Nevada's ball security at 135th.
Nevada with the ball
Northern Illinois with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026; CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Recent form
How have Nevada and Northern Illinois played lately?
Nevada
2–3 in the last five. Lost 2 straight.
- L 3–31 vs. New Mexico Week 10
- L 0–27 at UCLA Week 9
- W 28–13 vs. San José State Week 8
- L 17–31 at North Dakota State Week 7
- W 30–13 at UTEP Week 6
Northern Illinois
0–5 in the last five. Lost 5 straight.
- L 19–30 at San José State Week 10
- L 24–31 at UNLV Week 9
- L 21–56 vs. Hawai'i Week 8
- L 23–41 at Wyoming Week 7
- L 7–28 vs. Air Force Week 6
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Nevada and Northern Illinois?
Nevada
- Carter Jones (QB), questionable. Arm; missed the San Jose State game, as did backup AJ Bianco (ankle). Jeff Choate says it's too early to name a starter for UCLA; Luke Duncan started last week. (as of Oct 26, 2026)
Northern Illinois
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Nevada and Northern Illinois compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Nevada and Northern Illinois are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
The players in charts
How Nevada's and Northern Illinois' players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
RatingsNevada 8–2
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Nevada and Northern Illinois?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Nevada 22.3 points better (89th to 136th). PRIME also has Nevada ahead, by 19.2. Elo, which only sees results, also has Nevada ahead (98th to 131st).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Where the data comes from: SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update), last pulled Nov 2, 2026; PRIME (primecfb.com), updated Nov 9, 2026; Elo from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Opponent-adjustedNevada 9–7
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Nevada's offense ranks 106th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Northern Illinois defense it faces ranks 129th in EPA per play allowed. Northern Illinois' offense ranks 114th against Nevada's 85th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge. The biggest edge on the board is Nevada's big plays: 30th in adjusted explosiveness, against Northern Illinois' 119th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
EPANevada 5–1
Who's more efficient, Nevada or Northern Illinois?
Nevada is better running (100th in EPA per rush) than throwing (128th). Northern Illinois' run defense ranks 134th, so that's an edge. Northern Illinois is better running (77th in EPA per rush) than throwing (128th). Nevada's run defense ranks 87th. On third down, Nevada has the edge: their offense ranks 86th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense they face ranks 135th.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
ScoringNevada 2–0
Who scores more, Nevada or Northern Illinois?
Nevada is outscored by 2.8 a game, and Northern Illinois is outscored by 20.2. Nevada's offense ranks 116th in scoring, and the Northern Illinois defense it faces ranks 135th in points allowed. Northern Illinois' offense ranks 136th against Nevada's 59th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
OffenseNorthern Illinois 9–3
Which offense has the edge?
Nevada's best matchup is their run game: their offense ranks 84th in yards per carry, and Northern Illinois' defense ranks 123rd in yards per carry allowed. Northern Illinois has no clear edge here. Their best is yards per carry, 57th, against a defense ranked 70th in yards per carry allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
DefenseNevada 10–1
Which defense has the edge?
Nevada's defense is best placed to get off the field on third down: it ranks 28th in 3rd down conversions allowed, and Northern Illinois' offense is bottom-20 in 3rd down conversion rate (120th). That's a mismatch. Northern Illinois' defense is best placed to pick off passes: it ranks 24th in interception rate, and Nevada's offense is bottom-20 at avoiding interceptions (135th). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
Up frontNevada 7–5
Who wins up front?
Nevada has the better number in 7 of 12. The biggest gap is power success (short yardage), where Northern Illinois ranks 27th and Nevada 117th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TurnoversNorthern Illinois 5–2
Who wins the turnover battle?
Northern Illinois is −0.7 in turnover margin a game and Nevada is −1.6. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 4-point edge for Northern Illinois. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.
Per game, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TalentNorthern Illinois 6–4
Which team has more talent?
Nevada has the more talented roster (118th in the 247Sports talent composite; Northern Illinois is 126th). Nevada also plays further above their talent: +4.0 points of SP+ beyond what their roster predicts, to Northern Illinois' −17.5.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Where the data comes from: 247Sports, preseason; 247Sports talent composite against SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026); CollegeFootballData.com returning production, preseason; 247Sports recruiting rankings, via CollegeFootballData.com.
RECEIPTSNevada 4–1
Where did each team's wins come from?
Nevada is −1.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is luck (−2.2). Northern Illinois is −4.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (−2.5). Nevada's record is 2.2 wins worse than their play on bad luck, so they're better than the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Where the data comes from: our split of every game result, games through Nov 7, 2026, using SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026), the 247Sports talent composite and CollegeFootballData.com returning production.
The trip
How far is Nevada traveling?
It's Nevada's 5th road trip of the season. Counting this one, they'll have traveled 12,041 miles, there and back, 12th of 138 in FBS.
The transitive property
The shortest chain of real results this season that “proves” each team wins.
Nevada wins
28–13Week 8
30–19Week 10
Nevada beat San José State 28–13 in Week 8. San José State beat Northern Illinois 30–19 in Week 10.Northern Illinois wins
Can't be done. No chain of wins leads from Northern Illinois to Nevada.Each arrow in a chain is a win, with the score and the week. At a neutral site, both teams travel.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com schedules and results, games through Nov 7, 2026. Miles as the crow flies, campus to stadium.
FAQ
Nevada at Northern Illinois: questions people ask
Nevada vs. Northern Illinois prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Nevada, 83% chance to win. SP+ and PRIME favor the same team. Nevada's best matchup is their 3rd down defense, 28th in 3rd downs allowed, against Northern Illinois' 3rd down offense at 120th.
Where can I watch Nevada vs. Northern Illinois, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 14, 3:30 PM ET at Huskie Stadium. It's on MW+.
What's the projected score of Nevada vs. Northern Illinois?
SP+ projects Nevada 33–13. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for Nevada at Northern Illinois?
DraftKings has Nevada −7, total 46.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the Nevada vs. Northern Illinois series history?
It's tied 1–1. Last meeting: Nevada won 35–31 in 1994.
Who are the players to watch in Nevada vs. Northern Illinois?
Nevada: Carter Jones (654 passing yards), Dominic Kelley (584 rushing yards) and Gary Givens III (308 receiving yards). Northern Illinois: Taron Dickens (1,876 passing yards), Telly Johnson Jr. (629 rushing yards) and DeAree Rogers (719 receiving yards). Season totals through Nov 7, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Nevada at Northern Illinois?
Nevada's is Carter Jones (654 passing yards this season); Northern Illinois' is Taron Dickens (1,876 passing yards this season).
Who's out for Nevada at Northern Illinois?
Nevada: Carter Jones (QB), questionable.
Keep going
- Nevada: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Northern Illinois: every stat, rank and the schedule
- San José State at Air Force: the numbers' pick
- UNLV at New Mexico: the numbers' pick
- Wyoming at UTEP: the numbers' pick
- North Dakota State at Hawai'i: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 11 pick
- The Mountain West: standings, stats and rankings
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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Numbers through the games of Nov 7, 2026. SP+ as of Nov 2, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Recent form
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.