UNLV vs. New Mexico Prediction and Pick, Week 11 2026
The numbers sayNew Mexico89% chance to win
- New Mexico's defense should hold up. New Mexico is top-10 (1st) in success rate allowed, and UNLV is bottom-40 (114th) in success rate.
- New Mexico's defense should win on early downs. New Mexico is top-10 (1st) in SUPLEX allowed, and UNLV is bottom-40 (112th) in SUPLEX.
Updated
UNLV at New Mexico
Projected score: UNLV 16, New Mexico 30 (total 46).SP+: New Mexico by 14.0, 84% chance to win.PRIME: New Mexico by 18.5.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 14, 7:30 PM ET
- TV
- The CW Network
- Where
- University Stadium (NM)
- Line
- New Mexico −14.5, total 46.5
- Line movement
- Opened New Mexico −13.5; moved 1 point toward New Mexico. Total opened 47.5, down 1.
- Series
- UNLV leads 15–13
- Last meeting
- New Mexico 40–35 in 2025
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | New Mexico by 14.0 | 84% | 46 |
| PRIME | New Mexico by 18.5 | 91% | |
| Elo | New Mexico | 87% | |
| The line | New Mexico −14.5, opened −13.5 | 46.5, opened 47.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Mon, Nov 9, 7:09 AM ET.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, UNLV or New Mexico?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
What do the sportsbooks say?
| Sportsbook | UNLV spread | New Mexico spread | Over | Under | UNLV moneyline | New Mexico moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +14.5 −112 | −14.5 −108 | 46.5 −115 | 46.5 −105 | +470 | −650 (best price) |
| FanDuel | +14.5 −110 (best price) | −14.5 −110 | 46.5 −114 | 46.5 −106 | +500 (best price) | −710 |
| BetMGM | +14.5 −112 | −14.5 −105 | 46.5 −115 | 46.5 −105 | +500 (best price) | −650 (best price) |
| Caesars | +14.5 −113 | −14.5 −107 | 46.5 −113 (best price) | 46.5 −107 | +475 | −675 |
| ESPN BET | +14.5 −115 | −14.5 −105 | 46.5 −115 | 46.5 −105 | +500 (best price) | −800 |
| BetRivers | +14 −109 | −14 −114 (best price) | 47.5 −107 | 47.5 −117 | +450 | −670 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +14.5 −115 | −14.5 −105 | 47.5 −105 | 47.5 −115 (best price) | +450 | −650 (best price) |
| Fanatics | +14.5 −115 | −14.5 −105 | 47 −110 | 47 −110 | +475 | −650 (best price) |
Odds updated Mon., Nov. 9, 7:09 AM ET. The best price on each bet is marked. Prices move fast, so check the book before you bet. Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide UNLV vs. New Mexico?
All three ratings favor New Mexico, by 18.5 points, and it isn't close. New Mexico's best matchup is their defense, 1st in success rate allowed, against UNLV's offense at 114th. UNLV's way back in is their takeaway defense, 17th in interceptions per pass, against New Mexico's ball security at 132nd.
UNLV with the ball
New Mexico with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026; CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Recent form
How have UNLV and New Mexico played lately?
UNLV
3–2 in the last five.
- L 35–41 vs. Wyoming Week 10
- W 31–24 vs. Northern Illinois Week 9
- L 31–41 at Air Force Week 7
- W 13–7 vs. North Dakota State Week 6
- W 39–31 vs. California Week 5
New Mexico
5–0 in the last five. Won 5 straight.
- W 31–3 at Nevada Week 10
- W 21–16 at San José State Week 9
- W 21–16 vs. North Dakota State Week 8
- W 21–10 at Hawai'i Week 7
- W 61–7 vs. UTEP Week 5
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for UNLV and New Mexico?
UNLV
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
New Mexico
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How UNLV and New Mexico compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; UNLV and New Mexico are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
The players in charts
How UNLV's and New Mexico's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
RatingsNew Mexico 8–2
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate UNLV and New Mexico?
On a neutral field, SP+ has New Mexico 11.5 points better (36th to 82nd). PRIME also has New Mexico ahead, by 16.0. Elo, which only sees results, also has New Mexico ahead (28th to 78th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Where the data comes from: SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update), last pulled Nov 2, 2026; PRIME (primecfb.com), updated Nov 9, 2026; Elo from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Opponent-adjustedNew Mexico 13–3
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
UNLV's offense ranks 93rd in adjusted EPA per play, and the New Mexico defense it faces ranks 6th in EPA per play allowed. New Mexico's offense ranks 67th against UNLV's 70th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge. The biggest edge on the board is New Mexico's run game: 21st in adjusted EPA per rush, against UNLV's 115th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
EPANew Mexico 6–2
Who's more efficient, UNLV or New Mexico?
UNLV is about as good throwing (68th in EPA per pass) as running (77th). New Mexico is better running (28th in EPA per rush) than throwing (117th). UNLV's run defense ranks 123rd, so that's a mismatch.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
ScoringNew Mexico 2–0
Who scores more, UNLV or New Mexico?
UNLV outscores FBS opponents by 0.4 a game, and New Mexico by 23.7. UNLV's offense ranks 86th in scoring, and the New Mexico defense it faces ranks 1st in points allowed. New Mexico's offense ranks 25th against UNLV's 74th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is New Mexico's offense against UNLV's defense.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
OffenseEven 6–6
Which offense has the edge?
UNLV has no clear edge here. Their best is yards per carry, 37th, against a defense ranked 10th in yards per carry allowed. New Mexico's best matchup is big plays: their offense ranks 36th in explosive play rate, and UNLV's defense ranks 126th in explosive plays allowed. That's a mismatch.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
DefenseNew Mexico 11–0
Which defense has the edge?
UNLV's defense is best placed to pick off passes: it ranks 17th in interception rate, and New Mexico's offense is bottom-20 at avoiding interceptions (132nd). That's a mismatch. New Mexico's defense is best placed to keep offenses behind schedule: it ranks 1st in success rate allowed, and UNLV's offense is bottom-40 in success rate (114th). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
Up frontNew Mexico 10–2
Who wins up front?
New Mexico has the better number in 10 of 12. The biggest gap is line yards allowed per carry, where New Mexico ranks 1st and UNLV 137th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TurnoversNew Mexico 7–0
Who wins the turnover battle?
New Mexico is +2.0 in turnover margin a game and UNLV is −0.1. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 11-point edge for New Mexico. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.
Per game, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TalentUNLV 6–5
Which team has more talent?
UNLV has the more talented roster (56th in the 247Sports talent composite; New Mexico is 112th). But New Mexico plays further above their talent: +15.2 points of SP+ beyond what their roster predicts, to UNLV's −4.3.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Where the data comes from: 247Sports, preseason; 247Sports talent composite against SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026); CollegeFootballData.com returning production, preseason; 247Sports recruiting rankings, via CollegeFootballData.com.
RECEIPTSNew Mexico 4–1
Where did each team's wins come from?
UNLV is +0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+1.4). New Mexico is +3.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (+1.9).
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Where the data comes from: our split of every game result, games through Nov 7, 2026, using SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026), the 247Sports talent composite and CollegeFootballData.com returning production.
The trip
How far is UNLV traveling?
It's UNLV's 5th road trip of the season. Counting this one, they'll have traveled 13,441 miles, there and back, 5th of 138 in FBS.
The transitive property
The shortest chain of real results this season that “proves” each team wins.
UNLV wins
39–31Week 5
25–20Week 6
35–26Week 3
34–29Week 10
41–13Week 6
20–14Week 5
17–10Week 2
14–6Week 3
UNLV beat California 39–31 in Week 5. California beat Virginia Tech 25–20 in Week 6. Virginia Tech beat Maryland 35–26 in Week 3. Maryland beat Purdue 34–29 in Week 10. Purdue beat Minnesota 41–13 in Week 6. Minnesota beat Michigan 20–14 in Week 5. Michigan beat Oklahoma 17–10 in Week 2. Oklahoma beat New Mexico 14–6 in Week 3.New Mexico wins
38–7Week 1
24–10Week 3
41–35Week 10New Mexico beat Central Michigan 38–7 in Week 1. Central Michigan beat Wyoming 24–10 in Week 3. Wyoming beat UNLV 41–35 in Week 10.Each arrow in a chain is a win, with the score and the week. At a neutral site, both teams travel.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com schedules and results, games through Nov 7, 2026. Miles as the crow flies, campus to stadium.
FAQ
UNLV at New Mexico: questions people ask
UNLV vs. New Mexico prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick New Mexico, 89% chance to win. SP+ and PRIME favor the same team. New Mexico's best matchup is their defense, 1st in success rate allowed, against UNLV's offense at 114th.
Where can I watch UNLV vs. New Mexico, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 14, 7:30 PM ET at University Stadium (NM). It's on The CW Network.
What's the projected score of UNLV vs. New Mexico?
SP+ projects New Mexico 30–16. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for UNLV at New Mexico?
DraftKings has New Mexico −14.5, total 46.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the UNLV vs. New Mexico series history?
UNLV leads 15–13. Last meeting: New Mexico won 40–35 in 2025.
Who are the players to watch in UNLV vs. New Mexico?
UNLV: Jackson Arnold (1,743 passing yards), Jai'Den Thomas (753 rushing yards) and Kayden McGee (475 receiving yards). New Mexico: Toa Faavae (1,038 passing yards), Scottre Humphrey (647 rushing yards) and Cade Keith (358 receiving yards). Season totals through Nov 7, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in UNLV at New Mexico?
UNLV's is Jackson Arnold (1,743 passing yards this season); New Mexico's is Toa Faavae (1,038 passing yards this season).
Keep going
- UNLV: every stat, rank and the schedule
- New Mexico: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Nevada at Northern Illinois: the numbers' pick
- San José State at Air Force: the numbers' pick
- Wyoming at UTEP: the numbers' pick
- North Dakota State at Hawai'i: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 11 pick
- The Mountain West: standings, stats and rankings
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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Numbers through the games of Nov 7, 2026. SP+ as of Nov 2, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Recent form
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.