Wyoming vs. UTEP Prediction and Pick, Week 11 2026
85% chance to win
- Wyoming should get home. Wyoming is top-25 (16th) in sack rate, and UTEP is bottom-20 (138th) in sacks allowed per dropback.
- Wyoming should run it. Wyoming is top-25 (19th) in EPA per rush, and UTEP is bottom-20 (120th) in EPA per rush allowed.
Updated
Wyoming at UTEP
Projected score: Wyoming 27, UTEP 12 (total 40).SP+: Wyoming by 14.7, 85% chance to win.PRIME: Wyoming by 13.1.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 14, 10:00 PM ET
- TV
- FS1
- Where
- Sun Bowl
- Line
- Wyoming −9.5, total 40.5
- Line movement
- Opened Wyoming −10; moved 0.5 points toward UTEP. Total opened 43.5, down 3.
- Series
- Wyoming leads 26–6–1
- Last meeting
- Wyoming 42–19 in 1995
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Wyoming by 14.7 | 85% | 40 |
| PRIME | Wyoming by 13.1 | 83% | |
| Elo | Wyoming | 86% | |
| The line | Wyoming −9.5, opened −10 | 40.5, opened 43.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Mon, Nov 9, 7:09 AM ET.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Wyoming or UTEP?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
What do the sportsbooks say?
| Sportsbook | Wyoming spread | UTEP spread | Over | Under | Wyoming moneyline | UTEP moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | −9.5 −108 | +9.5 −112 (best price) | 40.5 −108 (best price) | 40.5 −112 | −360 | +285 |
| FanDuel | −9.5 −108 | +9.5 −112 (best price) | 40.5 −114 | 40.5 −106 (best price) | −375 | +290 (best price) |
| BetMGM | −8.5 −110 | +8.5 −108 | 40.5 −110 | 40.5 −108 | −350 (best price) | +280 |
| Caesars | −9 −107 | +9 −113 | 40.5 −112 | 40.5 −112 | −360 | +285 |
| ESPN BET | −8.5 −105 (best price) | +8.5 −115 | 40.5 −110 | 40.5 −110 | −360 | +280 |
| BetRivers | −8.5 −110 | +8.5 −113 | 40.5 −112 | 40.5 −112 | −375 | +275 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −8.5 −110 | +8.5 −110 | 40.5 −110 | 40.5 −110 | −350 (best price) | +275 |
| Fanatics | −8.5 −110 | +8.5 −110 | 40.5 −110 | 40.5 −110 | −375 | +290 (best price) |
Odds updated Mon., Nov. 9, 7:09 AM ET. The best price on each bet is marked. Prices move fast, so check the book before you bet. Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Wyoming vs. UTEP?
All three ratings favor Wyoming, by 13.1 points, and it isn't close. Wyoming's best matchup is their pass rush, 16th in sack rate, against UTEP's pass protection at 138th. UTEP's way back in is their run game, 38th in yards per carry, against Wyoming's run defense at 119th.
Wyoming with the ball
UTEP with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026; CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Recent form
How have Wyoming and UTEP played lately?
Wyoming
4–1 in the last five. Won 4 straight.
- W 41–35 at UNLV Week 10
- W 28–14 vs. Air Force Week 8
- W 41–23 vs. Northern Illinois Week 7
- W 16–13 at San José State Week 6
- L 0–28 at North Dakota State Week 5
UTEP
0–5 in the last five. Lost 5 straight.
- L 14–17 vs. Hawai'i Week 10
- L 7–31 at North Dakota State Week 9
- L 11–24 vs. San José State Week 7
- L 13–30 vs. Nevada Week 6
- L 7–61 at New Mexico Week 5
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Wyoming and UTEP?
Wyoming
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
UTEP
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Wyoming and UTEP compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Wyoming and UTEP are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
The players in charts
How Wyoming's and UTEP's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
RatingsWyoming 9–1
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Wyoming and UTEP?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Wyoming 17.2 points better (98th to 134th). PRIME also has Wyoming ahead, by 15.6. Elo, which only sees results, also has Wyoming ahead (90th to 135th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Where the data comes from: SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update), last pulled Nov 2, 2026; PRIME (primecfb.com), updated Nov 9, 2026; Elo from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Opponent-adjustedWyoming 13–3
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Wyoming's offense ranks 70th in adjusted EPA per play, and the UTEP defense it faces ranks 133rd in EPA per play allowed. UTEP's offense ranks 134th against Wyoming's 104th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Wyoming's offense against UTEP's defense. The biggest edge on the board is Wyoming's run game: 19th in adjusted EPA per rush, against UTEP's 120th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and Wyoming's defense falls from 83rd to 104th in EPA per play allowed: a lot of that came against soft offenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
EPAWyoming 7–1
Who's more efficient, Wyoming or UTEP?
Wyoming is better running (22nd in EPA per rush) than throwing (111th). UTEP's run defense ranks 94th, so that's a mismatch. UTEP is about as good throwing (135th in EPA per pass) as running (122nd).
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
ScoringWyoming 2–0
Who scores more, Wyoming or UTEP?
Wyoming outscores FBS opponents by 0.2 a game, and UTEP is outscored by 20.2. Wyoming's offense ranks 109th in scoring, and the UTEP defense it faces ranks 129th in points allowed. UTEP's offense ranks 138th against Wyoming's 43rd-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
OffenseWyoming 10–2
Which offense has the edge?
Wyoming's best matchup is early downs: their offense ranks 19th in SUPLEX, and UTEP's defense ranks 123rd in SUPLEX allowed. That's a mismatch. UTEP's best matchup is their run game: their offense ranks 38th in yards per carry, and Wyoming's defense ranks 119th in yards per carry allowed. That's a mismatch.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
DefenseWyoming 8–3
Which defense has the edge?
Wyoming's defense is best placed to get home: it ranks 16th in sack rate, and UTEP's offense is bottom-20 at avoiding sacks (138th). That's a mismatch. UTEP's defense is best placed to pick off passes: it ranks 87th in interception rate, and Wyoming's offense is bottom-20 at avoiding interceptions (133rd).
What opponents managed against them.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
Up frontWyoming 8–4
Who wins up front?
Wyoming has the better number in 8 of 12. The biggest gap is big Uglies: offensive line, where Wyoming ranks 24th and UTEP 137th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TurnoversUTEP 4–2
Who wins the turnover battle?
Neither team has a real turnover edge: Wyoming is −0.4 a game and UTEP −0.3.
Per game, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TalentUTEP 6–4
Which team has more talent?
UTEP has the more talented roster (102nd in the 247Sports talent composite; Wyoming is 127th). But Wyoming plays further above their talent: +1.1 points of SP+ beyond what their roster predicts, to UTEP's −19.7.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Where the data comes from: 247Sports, preseason; 247Sports talent composite against SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026); CollegeFootballData.com returning production, preseason; 247Sports recruiting rankings, via CollegeFootballData.com.
RECEIPTSWyoming 4–1
Where did each team's wins come from?
Wyoming is +1.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+1.9). UTEP is −3.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (−2.2). Wyoming's record is running 1.0 wins ahead of their play on luck alone, so they're not as good as the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Where the data comes from: our split of every game result, games through Nov 7, 2026, using SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026), the 247Sports talent composite and CollegeFootballData.com returning production.
The trip
How far is Wyoming traveling?
It's Wyoming's 6th road trip of the season. Counting this one, they'll have traveled 7,823 miles, there and back, 29th of 138 in FBS.
The transitive property
The shortest chain of real results this season that “proves” each team wins.
Wyoming wins
27–10Week 4
17–14Week 10
Wyoming beat Hawai'i 27–10 in Week 4. Hawai'i beat UTEP 17–14 in Week 10.UTEP wins
Can't be done. No chain of wins leads from UTEP to Wyoming.Each arrow in a chain is a win, with the score and the week. At a neutral site, both teams travel.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com schedules and results, games through Nov 7, 2026. Miles as the crow flies, campus to stadium.
FAQ
Wyoming at UTEP: questions people ask
Wyoming vs. UTEP prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Wyoming, 85% chance to win. SP+ and PRIME favor the same team. Wyoming's best matchup is their pass rush, 16th in sack rate, against UTEP's pass protection at 138th.
Where can I watch Wyoming vs. UTEP, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 14, 10:00 PM ET at Sun Bowl. It's on FS1.
What's the projected score of Wyoming vs. UTEP?
SP+ projects Wyoming 27–12. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for Wyoming at UTEP?
DraftKings has Wyoming −9.5, total 40.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the Wyoming vs. UTEP series history?
Wyoming leads 26–6–1. Last meeting: Wyoming won 42–19 in 1995.
Who are the players to watch in Wyoming vs. UTEP?
Wyoming: Tyler Hughes (1,238 passing yards), Markell Holman (535 rushing yards) and Jake Wilson (298 receiving yards). UTEP: EJ Colson (687 passing yards), Tavorus Jones (290 rushing yards) and Jaden Smith (303 receiving yards). Season totals through Nov 7, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Wyoming at UTEP?
Wyoming's is Tyler Hughes (1,238 passing yards this season); UTEP's is EJ Colson (687 passing yards this season).
Keep going
- Wyoming: every stat, rank and the schedule
- UTEP: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Nevada at Northern Illinois: the numbers' pick
- San José State at Air Force: the numbers' pick
- UNLV at New Mexico: the numbers' pick
- North Dakota State at Hawai'i: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 11 pick
- The Mountain West: standings, stats and rankings
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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Numbers through the games of Nov 7, 2026. SP+ as of Nov 2, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Recent form
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.