San José State vs. Air Force Prediction and Pick, Week 11 2026
The numbers sayAir Force79% chance to win
- Air Force's offense should move it. Air Force is top-10 (8th) in success rate, and San José State is bottom-40 (107th) in success rate allowed.
- Air Force's 3rd down defense has the edge on San José State's 3rd down offense. Air Force is above average (46th) in 3rd downs allowed, and San José State is bottom-20 (132nd) in 3rd down conversion.
Updated
San José State at Air Force
Projected score: San José State 16, Air Force 29 (total 45).SP+: Air Force by 13.0, 82% chance to win.PRIME: Air Force by 16.1.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 14, 7:00 PM ET
- TV
- CBSSN
- Where
- Falcon Stadium
- Line
- Air Force −11.5, total 47.5
- Line movement
- Opened Air Force −10.5; moved 1 point toward Air Force. Total opened 49.5, down 2.
- Series
- Air Force leads 6–3
- Last meeting
- Air Force 26–16 in 2025
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Air Force by 13.0 | 82% | 45 |
| PRIME | Air Force by 16.1 | 87% | |
| Elo | Air Force | 70% | |
| The line | Air Force −11.5, opened −10.5 | 47.5, opened 49.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Mon, Nov 9, 7:09 AM ET.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, San José State or Air Force?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
What do the sportsbooks say?
| Sportsbook | San José State spread | Air Force spread | Over | Under | San José State moneyline | Air Force moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +11.5 −112 | −11.5 −108 (best price) | 47.5 −108 (best price) | 47.5 −112 | +330 | −425 (best price) |
| FanDuel | +11.5 −110 | −11.5 −110 | 47.5 −108 (best price) | 47.5 −112 | +375 (best price) | −490 |
| BetMGM | +11.5 −110 | −11.5 −108 (best price) | 47.5 −110 | 47.5 −108 (best price) | +360 | −450 |
| Caesars | +11.5 −110 | −11.5 −110 | 47.5 −110 | 47.5 −110 | +330 | −440 |
| ESPN BET | +11.5 −110 | −11.5 −110 | 47.5 −110 | 47.5 −110 | +360 | −500 |
| BetRivers | +12 −112 | −12 −112 | 47.5 −110 | 47.5 −113 | +350 | −500 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +12.5 −110 (best price) | −12.5 −110 | 47.5 −110 | 47.5 −110 | +350 | −500 |
| Fanatics | +11.5 −110 | −11.5 −110 | 47.5 −110 | 47.5 −110 | +340 | −450 |
Odds updated Mon., Nov. 9, 7:09 AM ET. The best price on each bet is marked. Prices move fast, so check the book before you bet. Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide San José State vs. Air Force?
All three ratings favor Air Force, by 16.1 points. Air Force's best matchup is their offense, 8th in success rate, against San José State's defense at 107th. San José State's way back in is their takeaway defense, 22nd in interceptions per pass, against Air Force's ball security at 138th.
San José State with the ball
Air ForceAir ForceAir ForceAir ForceAir ForceAir ForceAir ForceAir Force with the ball
Air Force
San José StateSan José StateAir ForceAir ForceSan José StateAir ForceSan José StateEach row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026; CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Recent form
How have San José State and Air Force played lately?
San José State
2–3 in the last five.
- W 30–19 vs. Northern Illinois Week 10
- L 16–21 vs. New Mexico Week 9
- L 13–28 at Nevada Week 8
- W 24–11 at UTEP Week 7
- L 13–16 vs. Wyoming Week 6
Air Force
4–1 in the last five. Won 2 straight.
- W 24–21 at Army Week 10
- W 35–26 vs. UConn Week 9
- L 14–28 at Wyoming Week 8
- W 41–31 vs. UNLV Week 7
- W 28–7 at Northern Illinois Week 6
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for San José State and Air Force?
San José State
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Air Force
- Liam Szarka (QB), hasn't played since Week 5 (38 pass attempts in 4 games before that)
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How San José State and Air Force compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; San José State and Air Force are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
The players in charts
How San José State's and Air Force's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
RatingsAir Force 7–3
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate San José State and Air Force?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Air Force 10.5 points better (73rd to 114th). PRIME also has Air Force ahead, by 13.6. Elo, which only sees results, also has Air Force ahead (76th to 94th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Where the data comes from: SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update), last pulled Nov 2, 2026; PRIME (primecfb.com), updated Nov 9, 2026; Elo from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Opponent-adjustedAir Force 9–7
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
San José State's offense ranks 108th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Air Force defense it faces ranks 86th in EPA per play allowed. Air Force's offense ranks 52nd against San José State's 55th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge. The biggest edge on the board is Air Force's efficiency: 21st in adjusted success rate, against San José State's 112th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
EPASan José State 4–3
Who's more efficient, San José State or Air Force?
San José State is better throwing (68th in EPA per pass) than running (121st). Air Force's pass defense ranks 68th. Air Force is better running (7th in EPA per rush) than throwing (123rd). San José State's run defense ranks 76th, so that's a mismatch.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
ScoringAir Force 2–0
Who scores more, San José State or Air Force?
San José State is outscored by 1.1 a game, and Air Force by 7.3. San José State's offense ranks 115th in scoring, and the Air Force defense it faces ranks 42nd in points allowed. Air Force's offense ranks 67th against San José State's 47th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
OffenseSan José State 7–5
Which offense has the edge?
San José State has no clear edge here. Their best is yards per carry, 127th, against a defense ranked 90th in yards per carry allowed. Air Force's best matchup is staying on schedule: their offense ranks 8th in success rate, and San José State's defense ranks 107th in success rate allowed. That's a mismatch.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
DefenseAir Force 7–4
Which defense has the edge?
San José State's defense is best placed to pick off passes: it ranks 22nd in interception rate, and Air Force's offense is bottom-20 at avoiding interceptions (138th). That's a mismatch. Air Force's defense is best placed to get off the field on third down: it ranks 46th in 3rd down conversions allowed, and San José State's offense is bottom-20 in 3rd down conversion rate (132nd). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
Up frontAir Force 7–5
Who wins up front?
Air Force has the better number in 7 of 12. The biggest gap is big Uglies: offensive line, where Air Force ranks 1st and San José State 120th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TurnoversSan José State 4–3
Who wins the turnover battle?
Neither team has a real turnover edge: San José State is +0.4 a game and Air Force +0.1.
Per game, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TalentEven 5–5
Which team has more talent?
San José State has the more talented roster (110th in the 247Sports talent composite; Air Force is 137th). But Air Force plays further above their talent: +23.7 points of SP+ beyond what their roster predicts, to San José State's −5.4.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Where the data comes from: 247Sports, preseason; 247Sports talent composite against SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026); CollegeFootballData.com returning production, preseason; 247Sports recruiting rankings, via CollegeFootballData.com.
RECEIPTSAir Force 3–2
Where did each team's wins come from?
San José State is 0.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+1.7). Air Force is +2.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is roster (−4.2). Air Force's record is running 1.5 wins ahead of their play on luck alone, so they're not as good as the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Where the data comes from: our split of every game result, games through Nov 7, 2026, using SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026), the 247Sports talent composite and CollegeFootballData.com returning production.
The trip
How far is San José State traveling?
It's San José State's 6th road trip of the season. Counting this one, they'll have traveled 13,659 miles, there and back, 5th of 138 in FBS.
The transitive property
The shortest chain of real results this season that “proves” each team wins.
San José State wins
27–21Week 1
38–14Week 5
31–30Week 10
32–31Week 7
24–20Week 5
28–27Week 8
24–10Week 3
28–14Week 8San José State beat Eastern Michigan 27–21 in Week 1. Eastern Michigan beat Massachusetts 38–14 in Week 5. Massachusetts beat Ball State 31–30 in Week 10. Ball State beat Bowling Green 32–31 in Week 7. Bowling Green beat Miami (OH) 24–20 in Week 5. Miami (OH) beat Central Michigan 28–27 in Week 8. Central Michigan beat Wyoming 24–10 in Week 3. Wyoming beat Air Force 28–14 in Week 8.Air Force wins
36–33Week 4
28–13Week 8Air Force beat Nevada 36–33 in Week 4. Nevada beat San José State 28–13 in Week 8.Each arrow in a chain is a win, with the score and the week. At a neutral site, both teams travel.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com schedules and results, games through Nov 7, 2026. Miles as the crow flies, campus to stadium.
FAQ
San José State at Air Force: questions people ask
San José State vs. Air Force prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Air Force, 79% chance to win. SP+ and PRIME favor the same team. Air Force's best matchup is their offense, 8th in success rate, against San José State's defense at 107th.
Where can I watch San José State vs. Air Force, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 14, 7:00 PM ET at Falcon Stadium. It's on CBSSN.
What's the projected score of San José State vs. Air Force?
SP+ projects Air Force 29–16. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for San José State at Air Force?
DraftKings has Air Force −11.5, total 47.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the San José State vs. Air Force series history?
Air Force leads 6–3. Last meeting: Air Force won 26–16 in 2025.
Who are the players to watch in San José State vs. Air Force?
San José State: Luke Weaver (1,810 passing yards), Jabari Bates (682 rushing yards) and Carson Clark (689 receiving yards). Air Force: Liam Szarka (296 passing yards), Owen Allen (450 rushing yards) and Simon Kibbee (166 receiving yards). Season totals through Nov 7, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in San José State at Air Force?
San José State's is Luke Weaver (1,810 passing yards this season); Air Force's is Liam Szarka (296 passing yards this season).
Who's out for San José State at Air Force?
Air Force: Liam Szarka (QB) hasn't played since Week 5.
Keep going
- San José State: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Air Force: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Nevada at Northern Illinois: the numbers' pick
- UNLV at New Mexico: the numbers' pick
- Wyoming at UTEP: the numbers' pick
- North Dakota State at Hawai'i: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 11 pick
- The Mountain West: standings, stats and rankings
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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Numbers through the games of Nov 7, 2026. SP+ as of Nov 2, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Recent form
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.