North Dakota State vs. Hawai'i Prediction, Week 11 2026
The numbers sayNorth Dakota State74% chance to win
- North Dakota State's defense should hold up. North Dakota State is top-10 (2nd) in points allowed, and Hawai'i is bottom-20 (118th) in points per game.
- North Dakota State should stop the run. North Dakota State is top-25 (12th) in EPA per rush allowed, and Hawai'i is bottom-40 (115th) in EPA per rush.
Updated
North Dakota State at Hawai'i
Projected score: North Dakota State 27, Hawai'i 11 (total 38).SP+: North Dakota State by 15.7, 87% chance to win.PRIME: North Dakota State by 10.3.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 14, 11:00 PM ET
- TV
- The CW Network
- Where
- Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
- Line
- North Dakota State −6.5, total 38.5
- Line movement
- Opened North Dakota State −9.5; moved 3 points toward Hawai'i. Total opened 41.5, down 3.
- Series
- First meeting
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | North Dakota State by 15.7 | 87% | 38 |
| PRIME | North Dakota State by 10.3 | 77% | |
| Elo | North Dakota State | 72% | |
| The line | North Dakota State −6.5, opened −9.5 | 38.5, opened 41.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Mon, Nov 9, 7:09 AM ET.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, North Dakota State or Hawai'i?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
What do the sportsbooks say?
| Sportsbook | North Dakota State spread | Hawai'i spread | Over | Under | North Dakota State moneyline | Hawai'i moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | −6.5 −115 | +6.5 −105 | 38.5 −110 | 38.5 −110 | −258 | +210 |
| FanDuel | −6.5 −118 | +6.5 −104 (best price) | 38.5 −110 | 38.5 −110 | −250 | +205 |
| BetMGM | −6.5 −112 (best price) | +6.5 −105 | 38.5 −108 | 38.5 −110 | −250 | +200 |
| Caesars | −6.5 −114 | +6.5 −106 | 38.5 −110 | 38.5 −109 (best price) | −260 | +210 |
| ESPN BET | −6.5 −115 | +6.5 −105 | 38.5 −110 | 38.5 −110 | −260 | +215 (best price) |
| Fanatics | −6.5 −115 | +6.5 −105 | 38.5 −105 (best price) | 38.5 −115 | −245 (best price) | +200 |
Odds updated Mon., Nov. 9, 7:09 AM ET. The best price on each bet is marked. Prices move fast, so check the book before you bet. Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide North Dakota State vs. Hawai'i?
All three ratings favor North Dakota State, by 10.3 points. North Dakota State's best matchup is their scoring defense, 2nd in points allowed, against Hawai'i's scoring offense at 118th. Hawai'i's way back in is their takeaway defense, 53rd in interceptions per pass, against North Dakota State's ball security at 116th.
North Dakota State with the ball
Hawai'i with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026; CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Recent form
How have North Dakota State and Hawai'i played lately?
North Dakota State
3–2 in the last five.
- W 31–7 vs. UTEP Week 9
- L 16–21 at New Mexico Week 8
- W 31–17 vs. Nevada Week 7
- L 7–13 at UNLV Week 6
- W 28–0 vs. Wyoming Week 5
Hawai'i
2–3 in the last five. Won 2 straight.
- W 17–14 at UTEP Week 10
- W 56–21 at Northern Illinois Week 8
- L 10–21 vs. New Mexico Week 7
- L 12–30 at Arizona State Week 6
- L 16–20 vs. San José State Week 5
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for North Dakota State and Hawai'i?
North Dakota State
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Hawai'i
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How North Dakota State and Hawai'i compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; North Dakota State and Hawai'i are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
The players in charts
How North Dakota State's and Hawai'i's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
RatingsNorth Dakota State 9–0
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate North Dakota State and Hawai'i?
On a neutral field, SP+ has North Dakota State 18.2 points better (41st to 107th). PRIME also has North Dakota State ahead, by 12.8. Elo, which only sees results, also has North Dakota State ahead (42nd to 85th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Where the data comes from: SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update), last pulled Nov 2, 2026; PRIME (primecfb.com), updated Nov 9, 2026; Elo from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Opponent-adjustedNorth Dakota State 13–3
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
North Dakota State's offense ranks 91st in adjusted EPA per play, and the Hawai'i defense it faces ranks 116th in EPA per play allowed. Hawai'i's offense ranks 101st against North Dakota State's 15th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is North Dakota State's offense against Hawai'i's defense. The biggest edge on the board is North Dakota State's passing game: 74th in adjusted EPA per pass, against Hawai'i's 110th-ranked defense.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
EPANorth Dakota State 8–0
Who's more efficient, North Dakota State or Hawai'i?
North Dakota State is about as good throwing (77th in EPA per pass) as running (85th). Hawai'i is better throwing (93rd in EPA per pass) than running (111th). North Dakota State's pass defense ranks 1st, so the defense has the better of it. On third down, North Dakota State has the edge: their offense ranks 64th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense they face ranks 103rd.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
ScoringNorth Dakota State 2–0
Who scores more, North Dakota State or Hawai'i?
North Dakota State outscores FBS opponents by 16.2 a game, and Hawai'i is outscored by 3.0. North Dakota State's offense ranks 70th in scoring, and the Hawai'i defense it faces ranks 56th in points allowed. Hawai'i's offense ranks 118th against North Dakota State's 2nd-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
OffenseNorth Dakota State 7–5
Which offense has the edge?
North Dakota State's best matchup is big plays: their offense ranks 80th in explosive play rate, and Hawai'i's defense ranks 108th in explosive plays allowed. Hawai'i has no clear edge here. Their best is 3rd down conversion rate, 64th, against a defense ranked 38th in 3rd down conversions allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
DefenseNorth Dakota State 11–0
Which defense has the edge?
North Dakota State's defense is best placed to stop the run: it ranks 33rd in yards per carry allowed, and Hawai'i's offense is bottom-20 in yards per carry (126th). That's a mismatch. Hawai'i's defense is best placed to pick off passes: it ranks 53rd in interception rate, and North Dakota State's offense is bottom-40 at avoiding interceptions (116th). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
Up frontNorth Dakota State 9–3
Who wins up front?
North Dakota State has the better number in 9 of 12. The biggest gap is big Uglies: defensive front, where North Dakota State ranks 34th and Hawai'i 99th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TurnoversNorth Dakota State 5–2
Who wins the turnover battle?
North Dakota State is +1.0 in turnover margin a game and Hawai'i is +0.1. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 4-point edge for North Dakota State. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.
Per game, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TalentHawai'i 4–2
Which team has more talent?
Hawai'i has the more talented roster (115th in the 247Sports talent composite; North Dakota State is 131st). But North Dakota State plays further above their talent: +17.8 points of SP+ beyond what their roster predicts, to Hawai'i's −3.0.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Where the data comes from: 247Sports, preseason; 247Sports talent composite against SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026); CollegeFootballData.com returning production, preseason; 247Sports recruiting rankings, via CollegeFootballData.com.
RECEIPTSNorth Dakota State 3–2
Where did each team's wins come from?
North Dakota State is +2.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (+2.4). Hawai'i is −1.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+1.9). Hawai'i's record is 1.4 wins worse than their play on bad luck, so they're better than the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Where the data comes from: our split of every game result, games through Nov 7, 2026, using SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026), the 247Sports talent composite and CollegeFootballData.com returning production.
The trip
How far is North Dakota State traveling?
It's North Dakota State's 5th road trip of the season. Counting this one, they'll have traveled 16,034 miles, there and back, 3rd of 138 in FBS.
The transitive property
The shortest chain of real results this season that “proves” each team wins.
North Dakota State wins
28–0Week 5
27–10Week 4
North Dakota State beat Wyoming 28–0 in Week 5. Wyoming beat Hawai'i 27–10 in Week 4.Hawai'i wins
29–19Week 2
34–13Week 5
34–13Week 6
24–21Week 7
44–28Week 9
26–23Week 8
33–20Week 2
34–31Week 10
28–27Week 8
24–10Week 341–35Week 10
13–7Week 6Hawai'i beat New Mexico State 29–19 in Week 2. New Mexico State beat Western Kentucky 34–13 in Week 5. Western Kentucky beat Missouri State 34–13 in Week 6. Missouri State beat Kennesaw State 24–21 in Week 7. Kennesaw State beat Middle Tennessee 44–28 in Week 9. Middle Tennessee beat Florida International 26–23 in Week 8. Florida International beat Buffalo 33–20 in Week 2. Buffalo beat Miami (OH) 34–31 in Week 10. Miami (OH) beat Central Michigan 28–27 in Week 8. Central Michigan beat Wyoming 24–10 in Week 3. Wyoming beat UNLV 41–35 in Week 10. UNLV beat North Dakota State 13–7 in Week 6.Each arrow in a chain is a win, with the score and the week. At a neutral site, both teams travel.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com schedules and results, games through Nov 7, 2026. Miles as the crow flies, campus to stadium.
FAQ
North Dakota State at Hawai'i: questions people ask
North Dakota State vs. Hawai'i prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick North Dakota State, 74% chance to win. SP+ and PRIME favor the same team. North Dakota State's best matchup is their scoring defense, 2nd in points allowed, against Hawai'i's scoring offense at 118th.
Where can I watch North Dakota State vs. Hawai'i, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 14, 11:00 PM ET at Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex. It's on The CW Network.
What's the projected score of North Dakota State vs. Hawai'i?
SP+ projects North Dakota State 27–11. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for North Dakota State at Hawai'i?
DraftKings has North Dakota State −6.5, total 38.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the North Dakota State vs. Hawai'i series history?
This is the first meeting.
Who are the players to watch in North Dakota State vs. Hawai'i?
North Dakota State: Nathan Hayes (1,710 passing yards), Myles Mitchell (398 rushing yards) and Jackson Williams (614 receiving yards). Hawai'i: Micah Alejado (2,489 passing yards), Devon Rice (444 rushing yards) and Kainoa Carvalho (421 receiving yards). Season totals through Nov 7, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in North Dakota State at Hawai'i?
North Dakota State's is Nathan Hayes (1,710 passing yards this season); Hawai'i's is Micah Alejado (2,489 passing yards this season).
Keep going
- North Dakota State: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Hawai'i: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Nevada at Northern Illinois: the numbers' pick
- San José State at Air Force: the numbers' pick
- UNLV at New Mexico: the numbers' pick
- Wyoming at UTEP: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 11 pick
- The Mountain West: standings, stats and rankings
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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Numbers through the games of Nov 7, 2026. SP+ as of Nov 2, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Recent form
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.