North Texas vs. UTSA Prediction and Pick, Week 11 2026
The numbers sayNorth Texas61% chance to win
- North Texas should keep their quarterback clean. North Texas is top-10 (6th) in sacks allowed per dropback, and UTSA is bottom-20 (129th) in sack rate.
- North Texas' offense should move it. North Texas is top-10 (2nd) in points per game, and UTSA is bottom-40 (111th) in points allowed.
Updated
North Texas at UTSA
Projected score: North Texas 41, UTSA 40 (total 81).SP+: North Texas by 1.3, 54% chance to win.PRIME: North Texas by 2.4.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 14, 9:00 PM ET
- TV
- ESPNU
- Where
- Alamodome
- Weather
- Indoors
- Line
- North Texas −2.5, total 75.5
- Line movement
- Opened North Texas −1.5; moved 1 point toward North Texas.
- Series
- UTSA leads 8–6
- Last meeting
- North Texas 55–17 in 2025
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | North Texas by 1.3 | 54% | 81 |
| PRIME | North Texas by 2.4 | 57% | |
| Elo | North Texas | 72% | |
| The line | North Texas −2.5, opened −1.5 | 75.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Thu, Nov 12, 10:24 PM ET.
Projected vs. what happened
What we projected for Louisiana vs. UL Monroe, and what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, North Texas or UTSA?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
What do the sportsbooks say?
| Sportsbook | North Texas spread | UTSA spread | Over | Under | North Texas moneyline | UTSA moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | −2.5 −108 (best price) | +2.5 −112 | 75.5 −115 (best price) | 75.5 −105 | −125 | +105 |
| FanDuel | −2.5 −110 | +2.5 −110 (best price) | 76.5 −110 | 76.5 −110 (best price) | −125 | +104 |
| BetMGM | −2.5 −108 (best price) | +2.5 −110 (best price) | 76.5 −105 | 76.5 −112 | −130 | +105 |
| Caesars | −2.5 −108 (best price) | +2.5 −112 | 76 −113 | 76 −108 | −124 (best price) | +105 |
| ESPN BET | −2.5 −110 | +2.5 −110 (best price) | 76.5 −110 | 76.5 −110 (best price) | −125 | +105 |
| BetRivers | −2.5 −109 | +2.5 −114 | 76.5 −113 | 76.5 −110 (best price) | −134 | +108 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −2.5 −110 | +2.5 −110 (best price) | 76.5 −110 | 76.5 −110 (best price) | −135 | +110 (best price) |
| Fanatics | −2.5 −110 | +2.5 −110 (best price) | 76 −110 | 76 −110 | −125 | +105 |
Odds updated Thu., Nov. 12, 10:24 PM ET. The best price on each bet is marked. Prices move fast, so check the book before you bet. Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide North Texas vs. UTSA?
All three ratings favor North Texas, by 1.3 to 2.4 points. North Texas' best matchup is their pass protection, 6th in sacks allowed per dropback, against UTSA's pass rush at 129th. UTSA's way back in is their scoring offense, 35th in points per game, against North Texas' scoring defense at 116th.
North Texas with the ball
North TexasNorth TexasNorth TexasNorth TexasNorth TexasNorth TexasNorth TexasNorth TexasNorth TexasUTSA with the ball
UTSAUTSAUTSAUTSAUTSAUTSAUTSAEach row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026; CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 12, 2026.
Recent form
How have North Texas and UTSA played lately?
North Texas
5–0 in the last five. Won 5 straight.
- W 52–23 vs. Rice Week 10
- W 48–41 vs. Florida Atlantic Week 9
- W 49–39 at Navy Week 8
- W 50–10 vs. Charlotte Week 6
- W 45–44 at Tulsa Week 5
UTSA
4–1 in the last five.
- L 29–60 at Florida Atlantic Week 10
- W 42–19 at Tulane Week 8
- W 38–34 vs. Navy Week 7
- W 31–24 vs. South Florida Week 6
- W 16–14 at Rice Week 5
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for North Texas and UTSA?
North Texas
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
UTSA
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
How did Louisiana do without D'Wayne' Winfield?
With Winfield, Louisiana went 5–3 and won by 5.3 a game. Without him, this game included, they went 1–0 and won by 21.0 a game.
Where the data comes from. Scores and who played each game from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 12, 2026.
Chart data
| Week | Opponent | Score | Margin | Winfield played? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | at USC | 30–49 | −19.0 | Yes |
| 3 | vs. UAB | 21–14 | +7.0 | Yes |
| 4 | at Charlotte | 34–7 | +27.0 | Yes |
| 5 | vs. Arkansas State | 23–20 | +3.0 | Yes |
| 6 | at Louisiana Tech | 31–32 | −1.0 | Yes |
| 7 | vs. Troy | 33–6 | +27.0 | Yes |
| 8 | at Southern Miss | 31–35 | −4.0 | Yes |
| 10 | vs. South Alabama | 28–26 | +2.0 | Yes |
| 11 | at UL Monroe | 42–21 | +21.0 | No |
How did UL Monroe do without Aidan Armenta?
With Armenta, UL Monroe went 2–5 and lost by 17.6 a game. Without him, this game included, they went 0–2 and lost by 13.5 a game. Yards per play: 5.4 with him, 4.3 without.
Where the data comes from. Scores and who played each game from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 12, 2026.
Chart data
| Week | Opponent | Score | Margin | Armenta played? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | at Mississippi State | 13–62 | −49.0 | Yes |
| 2 | at UAB | 20–26 | −6.0 | No |
| 4 | vs. Florida Atlantic | 17–45 | −28.0 | Yes |
| 5 | at South Alabama | 35–52 | −17.0 | Yes |
| 7 | vs. Louisiana Tech | 0–24 | −24.0 | Yes |
| 8 | at Troy | 21–14 | +7.0 | Yes |
| 9 | vs. Southern Miss | 21–35 | −14.0 | Yes |
| 10 | at Arkansas State | 19–17 | +2.0 | Yes |
| 11 | vs. Louisiana | 21–42 | −21.0 | No |
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How North Texas and UTSA compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; North Texas and UTSA are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Nov 12, 2026.
The players in charts
How North Texas' and UTSA's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Nov 12, 2026.
RatingsEven 5–5
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate North Texas and UTSA?
On a neutral field, SP+ has North Texas 3.8 points better (52nd to 71st). PRIME also has North Texas ahead, by 4.9. Elo, which only sees results, also has North Texas ahead (37th to 77th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Where the data comes from: SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update), last pulled Nov 11, 2026; PRIME (primecfb.com), updated Nov 11, 2026; Elo from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 12, 2026.
Opponent-adjustedNorth Texas 13–3
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
North Texas' offense ranks 5th in adjusted EPA per play, and the UTSA defense it faces ranks 96th in EPA per play allowed. UTSA's offense ranks 50th against North Texas' 75th-ranked defense. Both offenses have the edge on the defenses they face. The biggest edge on the board is North Texas' passing game: 6th in adjusted EPA per pass, against UTSA's 104th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and UTSA's offense falls from 26th to 50th in EPA per play: a lot of that came against soft defenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 12, 2026.
EPANorth Texas 5–3
Who's more efficient, North Texas or UTSA?
North Texas is about as good throwing (2nd in EPA per pass) as running (15th). UTSA is better running (12th in EPA per rush) than throwing (62nd). North Texas' run defense ranks 32nd. On third down, North Texas has the edge: their offense ranks 7th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense they face ranks 84th.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 12, 2026.
ScoringEven 1–1
Who scores more, North Texas or UTSA?
North Texas outscores FBS opponents by 13.8 a game, and UTSA by 3.2. North Texas' offense ranks 2nd in scoring, and the UTSA defense it faces ranks 111th in points allowed. UTSA's offense ranks 35th against North Texas' 116th-ranked defense. Both offenses have the edge on the defenses they face.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026.
OffenseNorth Texas 11–1
Which offense has the edge?
North Texas' best matchup is their run game: their offense ranks 25th in yards per carry, and UTSA's defense ranks 112th in yards per carry allowed. That's a mismatch. UTSA's best matchup is their run game: their offense ranks 34th in yards per carry, and North Texas' defense ranks 82nd in yards per carry allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026.
DefenseUTSA 6–5
Which defense has the edge?
Neither defense ranks 25 spots ahead of the offense it faces in any of these, so expect both offenses to look like themselves.
What opponents managed against them.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026.
Up frontNorth Texas 11–1
Who wins up front?
North Texas has the better number in 11 of 12. The biggest gap is power success (short yardage), where UTSA ranks 14th and North Texas 120th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026.
TurnoversUTSA 4–2
Who wins the turnover battle?
Neither team has a real turnover edge: North Texas is +0.4 a game and UTSA +0.6. Fumble recoveries are mostly luck, and North Texas' takeaways lean on them (0.8 of 1.6 a game).
Per game, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026.
TalentUTSA 9–1
Which team has more talent?
UTSA has the more talented roster (72nd in the 247Sports talent composite; North Texas is 95th). But North Texas plays further above their talent: +8.1 points of SP+ beyond what their roster predicts, to UTSA's +1.0.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Where the data comes from: 247Sports, preseason; 247Sports talent composite against SP+ (last pulled Nov 11, 2026); CollegeFootballData.com returning production, preseason; 247Sports recruiting rankings, via CollegeFootballData.com.
RECEIPTSEven 2–2
Where did each team's wins come from?
North Texas is +2.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (+1.1). UTSA is +2.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is luck (+1.6). UTSA's record is running 1.6 wins ahead of their play on luck alone, so they're not as good as the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Where the data comes from: our split of every game result, games through Nov 12, 2026, using SP+ (last pulled Nov 11, 2026), the 247Sports talent composite and CollegeFootballData.com returning production.
The trip
How far is North Texas traveling?
It's North Texas' 5th road trip of the season. Counting this one, they'll have traveled 5,319 miles, there and back, 71st of 138 in FBS.
The transitive property
The shortest chain of real results this season that “proves” each team wins.
North Texas wins
48–41Week 9
60–29Week 10North Texas beat Florida Atlantic 48–41 in Week 9. Florida Atlantic beat UTSA 60–29 in Week 10.UTSA wins
31–26Week 2
49–35Week 3UTSA beat Texas State 31–26 in Week 2. Texas State beat North Texas 49–35 in Week 3.Each arrow in a chain is a win, with the score and the week. At a neutral site, both teams travel.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com schedules and results, games through Nov 12, 2026. Miles as the crow flies, campus to stadium.
FAQ
North Texas at UTSA: questions people ask
North Texas vs. UTSA prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick North Texas, 61% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. North Texas' best matchup is their pass protection, 6th in sacks allowed per dropback, against UTSA's pass rush at 129th.
Where can I watch North Texas vs. UTSA, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 14, 9:00 PM ET at Alamodome. It's on ESPNU.
What's the projected score of North Texas vs. UTSA?
SP+ projects North Texas 41–40. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for North Texas at UTSA?
DraftKings has North Texas −2.5, total 75.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the North Texas vs. UTSA series history?
UTSA leads 8–6. Last meeting: North Texas won 55–17 in 2025.
Who are the players to watch in North Texas vs. UTSA?
North Texas: Tayven Jackson (2,871 passing yards), Jahiem White (1,182 rushing yards) and Justin Stevenson (898 receiving yards). UTSA: Owen McCown (2,016 passing yards), Will Henderson III (680 rushing yards) and Mekhi Anderson (434 receiving yards). Season totals through Nov 12, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in North Texas at UTSA?
North Texas' is Tayven Jackson (2,871 passing yards this season); UTSA's is Owen McCown (2,016 passing yards this season).
Keep going
- North Texas: every stat, rank and the schedule
- UTSA: every stat, rank and the schedule
- UAB at Temple: the numbers' pick
- East Carolina at Charlotte: the numbers' pick
- Tulane at Rice: the numbers' pick
- Florida Atlantic at Tulsa: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 11 pick
- The American Athletic: standings, stats and rankings
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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Numbers through the games of Nov 12, 2026. SP+ as of Nov 11, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Recent form
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.