Purdue vs. Iowa Prediction and Pick, Week 11 2026
The numbers sayIowa94% chance to win
- Iowa's front should win up front. Iowa is top-25 (17th) in line yards allowed per carry, and Purdue is bottom-20 (122nd) in line yards per carry.
- Iowa should keep their quarterback clean. Iowa is top-25 (12th) in sacks allowed per dropback, and Purdue is bottom-20 (119th) in sack rate.
Updated
Purdue at Iowa
Projected score: Purdue 15, Iowa 36 (total 52).SP+: Iowa by 21.3, 94% chance to win.PRIME: Iowa by 18.5.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 14, 7:30 PM ET
- TV
- NBC
- Where
- Kinnick Stadium
- Weather
- 36°, wind 2 mph
- Line
- Iowa −17.5, total 47.5
- Line movement
- Opened Iowa −16.5; moved 1 point toward Iowa. Total opened 45.5, up 2.
- Series
- Purdue leads 50–41–3
- Last meeting
- Iowa 20–14 in 2023
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Iowa by 21.3 | 94% | 52 |
| PRIME | Iowa by 18.5 | 91% | |
| Elo | Iowa | 96% | |
| The line | Iowa −17.5, opened −16.5 | 47.5, opened 45.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Wed, Nov 11, 8:54 PM ET.
Projected vs. what happened
What we projected for Buffalo vs. Ball State, and what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Purdue or Iowa?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
What do the sportsbooks say?
| Sportsbook | Purdue spread | Iowa spread | Over | Under | Purdue moneyline | Iowa moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +17.5 −112 | −17.5 −108 | 47.5 −112 | 47.5 −108 (best price) | +600 | −900 (best price) |
| FanDuel | +17.5 −120 | −17.5 +100 | 47.5 −110 | 47.5 −110 | +720 (best price) | −1050 |
| BetMGM | +17 −108 | −17 −110 (best price) | 47.5 −110 | 47.5 −108 (best price) | +650 | −900 (best price) |
| Caesars | +17.5 −118 | −17.5 −102 | 47.5 −106 (best price) | 47.5 −114 | +625 | −950 |
| ESPN BET | +17.5 −115 | −17.5 −105 | 47.5 −110 | 47.5 −110 | +600 | −1000 |
| BetRivers | +17.5 −109 (best price) | −17.5 −114 | 47.5 −110 | 47.5 −113 | +600 | −1000 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +17.5 −110 | −17.5 −110 | 47.5 −110 | 47.5 −110 | +600 | −1000 |
| Fanatics | +17 −110 | −17 −110 (best price) | 47.5 −110 | 47.5 −110 | +650 | −950 |
Odds updated Wed., Nov. 11, 8:54 PM ET. The best price on each bet is marked. Prices move fast, so check the book before you bet. Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Purdue vs. Iowa?
All three ratings favor Iowa, by 18.5 to 21.3 points, and it isn't close. Iowa's best matchup is their run-stopping front, 17th in line yards allowed per carry, against Purdue's offensive line at 122nd. Purdue's way back in is their ball security, 37th in interceptions thrown per pass, against Iowa's takeaway defense at 77th.
Purdue with the ball
IowaIowa
PurdueIowaIowaIowaIowaIowaPurdueIowa with the ball
IowaIowaPurdueIowaIowaIowaIowaIowaIowaIowaEach row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 11, 2026; CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 11, 2026.
Recent form
How have Purdue and Iowa played lately?
Purdue
2–3 in the last five. Lost 3 straight.
- L 29–34 vs. Maryland Week 10
- L 17–31 at Penn State Week 9
- L 26–38 vs. Washington Week 7
- W 41–13 vs. Minnesota Week 6
- W 24–17 at Illinois Week 5
Iowa
3–2 in the last five. Won 2 straight.
- W 24–10 at Northwestern Week 10
- W 30–0 vs. Wisconsin Week 9
- L 10–13 at Minnesota Week 8
- W 41–24 at Washington Week 6
- L 14–31 vs. Ohio State Week 5
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Purdue and Iowa?
Purdue
- Kylan Fox (#16), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Raderrion Daniels (#24), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Rodney Lora (#94), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Jaden Mangham (#2), last game: game time decision (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
Iowa
- Tyler Brown (#2), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Burke Gautcher (#10), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Brody Schaffer (#11), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Kyler Gerardy (#19), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Kamari Moulton (RB), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Lucas Allgeyer (#60), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Cael Winter (#61), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Trent Wilson (#65), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
- Cannon Leonard (#75), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Nov 7)
How did Buffalo do without Jason Wright?
With Wright, Buffalo went 4–3 and lost by 3.7 a game. Without him, this game included, they went 1–0 and won by 21.0 a game.
Where the data comes from. Scores and who played each game from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 11, 2026.
Chart data
| Week | Opponent | Score | Margin | Wright played? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | at Florida International | 20–33 | −13.0 | Yes |
| 3 | at Penn State | 13–55 | −42.0 | Yes |
| 5 | vs. Western Michigan | 17–20 | −3.0 | Yes |
| 6 | at Toledo | 23–8 | +15.0 | Yes |
| 7 | vs. Massachusetts | 25–18 | +7.0 | Yes |
| 8 | vs. Bowling Green | 31–24 | +7.0 | Yes |
| 10 | at Miami (OH) | 34–31 | +3.0 | Yes |
| 11 | at Ball State | 28–7 | +21.0 | No |
How did Ball State do without Keldric Luster?
With Luster, Ball State went 2–5 and lost by 16.9 a game. Without him, this game included, they went 0–2 and lost by 17.0 a game. Yards per play: 5.6 with him, 4.2 without.
Where the data comes from. Scores and who played each game from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 11, 2026.
Chart data
| Week | Opponent | Score | Margin | Luster played? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | at Ohio State | 3–56 | −53.0 | Yes |
| 3 | at Liberty | 15–51 | −36.0 | Yes |
| 4 | at Kent State | 13–26 | −13.0 | No |
| 5 | vs. Toledo | 24–39 | −15.0 | Yes |
| 6 | at Northwestern | 14–45 | −31.0 | Yes |
| 7 | at Bowling Green | 32–31 | +1.0 | Yes |
| 8 | vs. Sacramento State | 34–17 | +17.0 | Yes |
| 10 | at Massachusetts | 30–31 | −1.0 | Yes |
| 11 | vs. Buffalo | 7–28 | −21.0 | No |
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Purdue and Iowa compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Purdue and Iowa are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Nov 11, 2026.
The players in charts
How Purdue's and Iowa's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Nov 11, 2026.
RatingsIowa 6–4
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Purdue and Iowa?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Iowa 18.8 points better (16th to 83rd). PRIME also has Iowa ahead, by 16.0. Elo, which only sees results, also has Iowa ahead (8th to 85th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Where the data comes from: SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update), last pulled Nov 11, 2026; PRIME (primecfb.com), updated Nov 11, 2026; Elo from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 11, 2026.
Opponent-adjustedIowa 11–5
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Purdue's offense ranks 41st in adjusted EPA per play, and the Iowa defense it faces ranks 18th in EPA per play allowed. Iowa's offense ranks 92nd against Purdue's 124th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Iowa's offense against Purdue's defense. The biggest edge on the board is Iowa's passing game: 39th in adjusted EPA per pass, against Purdue's 131st-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and Iowa's offense falls from 70th to 92nd in EPA per play: a lot of that came against soft defenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 11, 2026.
EPAIowa 5–2
Who's more efficient, Purdue or Iowa?
Purdue is better throwing (44th in EPA per pass) than running (77th). Iowa's pass defense ranks 70th, so that's an edge. Iowa is better throwing (44th in EPA per pass) than running (72nd). Purdue's pass defense ranks 133rd, so that's a mismatch. On third down, Iowa has the edge: their offense ranks 106th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense they face ranks 136th.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 11, 2026.
ScoringEven 1–1
Who scores more, Purdue or Iowa?
Purdue is outscored by 2.9 a game, and Iowa by 15.6. Purdue's offense ranks 58th in scoring, and the Iowa defense it faces ranks 3rd in points allowed. Iowa's offense ranks 72nd against Purdue's 123rd-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Iowa's offense against Purdue's defense.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 11, 2026.
OffenseIowa 7–5
Which offense has the edge?
Purdue has no clear edge here. Their best is explosive play rate, 46th, against a defense ranked 8th in explosive plays allowed. Iowa's best matchup is their run game: their offense ranks 24th in yards per carry, and Purdue's defense ranks 127th in yards per carry allowed. That's a mismatch.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 11, 2026.
DefenseIowa 10–1
Which defense has the edge?
Purdue's defense is best placed to pick off passes: it ranks 32nd in interception rate, and Iowa's offense is middle of the pack at avoiding interceptions (72nd). Iowa's defense is best placed to stop the run: it ranks 2nd in yards per carry allowed, and Purdue's offense is bottom-40 in yards per carry (109th). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 11, 2026.
Up frontIowa 12–0
Who wins up front?
Iowa has the better number in 12 of 12. The biggest gap is big Uglies: defensive front, where Iowa ranks 10th and Purdue 127th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 11, 2026.
TurnoversPurdue 4–3
Who wins the turnover battle?
Purdue is +1.5 in turnover margin a game and Iowa is +1.0. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 3-point edge for Purdue. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.
Per game, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 11, 2026.
TalentIowa 7–3
Which team has more talent?
Iowa has the more talented roster (44th in the 247Sports talent composite; Purdue is 55th). Iowa also plays further above their talent: +12.5 points of SP+ beyond what their roster predicts, to Purdue's −4.8.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Where the data comes from: 247Sports, preseason; 247Sports talent composite against SP+ (last pulled Nov 11, 2026); CollegeFootballData.com returning production, preseason; 247Sports recruiting rankings, via CollegeFootballData.com.
MoneyIowa 3–0
Which roster costs more?
Iowa's roster is valued at $18.8M, Purdue's at $17.8M. Iowa also plays better per dollar: +13.0 points of SP+ above what their payroll predicts, to −4.7 for Purdue.
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
Where the data comes from: The NIL Standard, preseason estimates; The NIL Standard's preseason roster values against this season's results.
RECEIPTSIowa 5–0
Where did each team's wins come from?
Purdue is −1.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (−1.3). Iowa is +2.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (+2.2).
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Where the data comes from: our split of every game result, games through Nov 11, 2026, using SP+ (last pulled Nov 11, 2026), the 247Sports talent composite and CollegeFootballData.com returning production.
The trip
How far is Purdue traveling?
It's Purdue's 4th road trip of the season. Counting this one, they'll have traveled 5,132 miles, there and back, 71st of 138 in FBS.
The transitive property
The shortest chain of real results this season that “proves” each team wins.
Purdue wins
41–13Week 6
13–10Week 8Purdue beat Minnesota 41–13 in Week 6. Minnesota beat Iowa 13–10 in Week 8.Iowa wins
41–24Week 6
38–26Week 7Iowa beat Washington 41–24 in Week 6. Washington beat Purdue 38–26 in Week 7.Each arrow in a chain is a win, with the score and the week. At a neutral site, both teams travel.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com schedules and results, games through Nov 11, 2026. Miles as the crow flies, campus to stadium.
FAQ
Purdue at Iowa: questions people ask
Purdue vs. Iowa prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Iowa, 94% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Iowa's best matchup is their run-stopping front, 17th in line yards allowed per carry, against Purdue's offensive line at 122nd.
Where can I watch Purdue vs. Iowa, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 14, 7:30 PM ET at Kinnick Stadium. It's on NBC.
What's the projected score of Purdue vs. Iowa?
SP+ projects Iowa 36–15. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for Purdue at Iowa?
DraftKings has Iowa −17.5, total 47.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the Purdue vs. Iowa series history?
Purdue leads 50–41–3. Last meeting: Iowa won 20–14 in 2023.
Who are the players to watch in Purdue vs. Iowa?
Purdue: Ryan Browne (2,272 passing yards), Fame Ijeboi (596 rushing yards) and Asaad Waseem (709 receiving yards). Iowa: Hank Brown (1,330 passing yards), Kamari Moulton (521 rushing yards) and Tony Diaz (512 receiving yards). Season totals through Nov 11, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Purdue at Iowa?
Purdue's is Ryan Browne (2,272 passing yards this season); Iowa's is Hank Brown (1,330 passing yards this season).
Keep going
- Purdue: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Iowa: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Illinois at UCLA: the numbers' pick
- Wisconsin at Maryland: the numbers' pick
- Northwestern at Ohio State: the numbers' pick
- Nebraska at Rutgers: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 11 pick
- The Big Ten: standings, stats and rankings
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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Numbers through the games of Nov 11, 2026. SP+ as of Nov 11, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Recent form
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.