South Carolina vs. Arkansas Prediction and Pick, Week 11 2026
82% chance to win
- South Carolina should run it. South Carolina is top-25 (19th) in EPA per rush, and Arkansas is bottom-40 (106th) in EPA per rush allowed.
- South Carolina's offensive line should win up front. South Carolina is top-25 (11th) in line yards per carry, and Arkansas is bottom-40 (96th) in line yards allowed per carry.
Updated
South Carolina at Arkansas
Projected score: South Carolina 35, Arkansas 20 (total 56).SP+: South Carolina by 14.8, 85% chance to win.PRIME: South Carolina by 12.3.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 14, 7:45 PM ET
- TV
- SEC Network
- Where
- Razorback Stadium
- Weather
- 42°, cloudy, wind 9 mph
- Line
- South Carolina −7.5, total 51.5
- Line movement
- Opened South Carolina −8.5; moved 1 point toward Arkansas.
- Series
- Arkansas leads 14–10
- Last meeting
- Arkansas 44–30 in 2022
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | South Carolina by 14.8 | 85% | 56 |
| PRIME | South Carolina by 12.3 | 81% | |
| Elo | South Carolina | 78% | |
| The line | South Carolina −7.5, opened −8.5 | 51.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Thu, Nov 12, 10:24 PM ET.
Projected vs. what happened
What we projected for Louisiana vs. UL Monroe, and what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, South Carolina or Arkansas?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
What do the sportsbooks say?
| Sportsbook | South Carolina spread | Arkansas spread | Over | Under | South Carolina moneyline | Arkansas moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | −7.5 −112 (best price) | +7.5 −108 | 51.5 −112 | 51.5 −108 | −325 | +260 |
| FanDuel | −8.5 −110 | +8.5 −110 (best price) | 51.5 −105 (best price) | 51.5 −115 | −345 | +275 |
| BetMGM | −8 −108 | +8 −110 | 51.5 −110 | 51.5 −108 | −325 | +270 |
| Caesars | −7.5 −114 | +7.5 −106 | 51.5 −106 | 51.5 −114 | −320 (best price) | +250 |
| ESPN BET | −7.5 −115 | +7.5 −105 | 51.5 −110 | 51.5 −110 | −360 | +280 (best price) |
| BetRivers | −8 −114 | +8 −109 | 51.5 −106 | 51.5 −118 | −345 | +260 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −8.5 −105 | +8.5 −110 (best price) | 51.5 −105 (best price) | 51.5 −115 | −350 | +260 |
| Fanatics | −8 −110 | +8 −110 | 52 −110 | 52 −110 (best price) | −330 | +260 |
Odds updated Thu., Nov. 12, 10:24 PM ET. The best price on each bet is marked. Prices move fast, so check the book before you bet. Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide South Carolina vs. Arkansas?
All three ratings favor South Carolina, by 12.3 to 14.8 points, and it isn't close. South Carolina's best matchup is their run game, 19th in EPA per rush, against Arkansas' run defense at 106th. Arkansas' way back in is their ball security, 49th in interceptions thrown per pass, against South Carolina's takeaway defense at 116th.
South Carolina with the ball
Arkansas with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026; CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 12, 2026.
Recent form
How have South Carolina and Arkansas played lately?
South Carolina
4–1 in the last five. Won 4 straight.
Arkansas
1–4 in the last five. Lost 2 straight.
- L 23–26 at Auburn Week 10
- L 10–34 vs. Missouri Week 9
- W 31–21 at Vanderbilt Week 7
- L 17–24 vs. Tennessee Week 6
- L 7–34 at Texas A&M Week 5
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for South Carolina and Arkansas?
South Carolina
- Jayden Sellers (#17), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Matt Fuller (#28), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Kobby Sakyi-Prah (#41), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Josiah Thompson (#74), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Dayne Arnett (#75), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Seth Smith (#78), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Nitro Tuggle (#1), questionable (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Nyck Harbor (WR), questionable (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- J’Zavien Currence (#14), questionable (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- LaNorris Sellers (#16), questionable (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
Arkansas
- Braydon Lee (#3), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Maddox Lassiter (#47), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Quincy Rhodes Jr. (DL), probable (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
How did Louisiana do without D'Wayne' Winfield?
With Winfield, Louisiana went 5–3 and won by 5.3 a game. Without him, this game included, they went 1–0 and won by 21.0 a game.
Where the data comes from. Scores and who played each game from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 12, 2026.
Chart data
| Week | Opponent | Score | Margin | Winfield played? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | at USC | 30–49 | −19.0 | Yes |
| 3 | vs. UAB | 21–14 | +7.0 | Yes |
| 4 | at Charlotte | 34–7 | +27.0 | Yes |
| 5 | vs. Arkansas State | 23–20 | +3.0 | Yes |
| 6 | at Louisiana Tech | 31–32 | −1.0 | Yes |
| 7 | vs. Troy | 33–6 | +27.0 | Yes |
| 8 | at Southern Miss | 31–35 | −4.0 | Yes |
| 10 | vs. South Alabama | 28–26 | +2.0 | Yes |
| 11 | at UL Monroe | 42–21 | +21.0 | No |
How did UL Monroe do without Aidan Armenta?
With Armenta, UL Monroe went 2–5 and lost by 17.6 a game. Without him, this game included, they went 0–2 and lost by 13.5 a game. Yards per play: 5.4 with him, 4.3 without.
Where the data comes from. Scores and who played each game from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 12, 2026.
Chart data
| Week | Opponent | Score | Margin | Armenta played? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | at Mississippi State | 13–62 | −49.0 | Yes |
| 2 | at UAB | 20–26 | −6.0 | No |
| 4 | vs. Florida Atlantic | 17–45 | −28.0 | Yes |
| 5 | at South Alabama | 35–52 | −17.0 | Yes |
| 7 | vs. Louisiana Tech | 0–24 | −24.0 | Yes |
| 8 | at Troy | 21–14 | +7.0 | Yes |
| 9 | vs. Southern Miss | 21–35 | −14.0 | Yes |
| 10 | at Arkansas State | 19–17 | +2.0 | Yes |
| 11 | vs. Louisiana | 21–42 | −21.0 | No |
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How South Carolina and Arkansas compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; South Carolina and Arkansas are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Nov 12, 2026.
The players in charts
How South Carolina's and Arkansas' players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Nov 12, 2026.
RatingsSouth Carolina 9–1
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate South Carolina and Arkansas?
On a neutral field, SP+ has South Carolina 17.3 points better (28th to 88th). PRIME also has South Carolina ahead, by 14.8. Elo, which only sees results, also has South Carolina ahead (25th to 72nd).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Where the data comes from: SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update), last pulled Nov 11, 2026; PRIME (primecfb.com), updated Nov 11, 2026; Elo from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 12, 2026.
Opponent-adjustedSouth Carolina 15–1
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
South Carolina's offense ranks 11th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Arkansas defense it faces ranks 91st in EPA per play allowed. Arkansas' offense ranks 74th against South Carolina's 69th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is South Carolina's offense against Arkansas' defense. The biggest edge on the board is South Carolina's run game: 19th in adjusted EPA per rush, against Arkansas' 106th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and Arkansas' offense climbs from 109th to 74th in EPA per play: it has done its work against good defenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 12, 2026.
EPASouth Carolina 7–1
Who's more efficient, South Carolina or Arkansas?
South Carolina is better running (18th in EPA per rush) than throwing (71st). Arkansas' run defense ranks 129th, so that's a mismatch. Arkansas is better throwing (89th in EPA per pass) than running (118th). South Carolina's pass defense ranks 110th. On third down, South Carolina has the edge: their offense ranks 4th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense they face ranks 84th.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 12, 2026.
ScoringSouth Carolina 2–0
Who scores more, South Carolina or Arkansas?
South Carolina outscores FBS opponents by 11.3 a game, and Arkansas is outscored by 7.4. South Carolina's offense ranks 23rd in scoring, and the Arkansas defense it faces ranks 95th in points allowed. Arkansas' offense ranks 122nd against South Carolina's 60th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is South Carolina's offense against Arkansas' defense.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026.
OffenseSouth Carolina 11–1
Which offense has the edge?
South Carolina's best matchup is their run game: their offense ranks 7th in yards per carry, and Arkansas' defense ranks 92nd in yards per carry allowed. That's a mismatch. Arkansas' best matchup is third downs: their offense ranks 40th in 3rd down conversion rate, and South Carolina's defense ranks 77th in 3rd down conversions allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026.
DefenseSouth Carolina 9–2
Which defense has the edge?
South Carolina's defense is best placed to stop the run: it ranks 39th in yards per carry allowed, and Arkansas' offense is bottom-20 in yards per carry (130th). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026.
Up frontSouth Carolina 12–0
Who wins up front?
South Carolina has the better number in 12 of 12. The biggest gap is open-field yards per carry, where South Carolina ranks 9th and Arkansas 121st.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026.
TurnoversArkansas 5–2
Who wins the turnover battle?
Arkansas is −0.4 in turnover margin a game and South Carolina is −0.8. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 2-point edge for Arkansas. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.
Per game, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026.
TalentSouth Carolina 11–0
Which team has more talent?
South Carolina has the more talented roster (15th in the 247Sports talent composite; Arkansas is 36th). South Carolina also plays further above their talent: +1.4 points of SP+ beyond what their roster predicts, to Arkansas' −8.8.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Where the data comes from: 247Sports, preseason; 247Sports talent composite against SP+ (last pulled Nov 11, 2026); CollegeFootballData.com returning production, preseason; 247Sports recruiting rankings, via CollegeFootballData.com.
MoneySouth Carolina 3–0
Which roster costs more?
Arkansas' roster is valued at $23.4M, South Carolina's at $23.2M. Dollar for dollar, South Carolina plays better: +5.6 points of SP+ above what their payroll predicts, to −11.9 for Arkansas.
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
Where the data comes from: The NIL Standard, preseason estimates; The NIL Standard's preseason roster values against this season's results.
RECEIPTSSouth Carolina 4–1
Where did each team's wins come from?
South Carolina is +1.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is roster (+1.6). Arkansas is −1.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (−1.4).
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Where the data comes from: our split of every game result, games through Nov 12, 2026, using SP+ (last pulled Nov 11, 2026), the 247Sports talent composite and CollegeFootballData.com returning production.
The trip
How far is South Carolina traveling?
It's South Carolina's 4th road trip of the season. Counting this one, they'll have traveled 4,765 miles, there and back, 79th of 138 in FBS.
The transitive property
The shortest chain of real results this season that “proves” each team wins.
South Carolina wins
17–9Week 10
34–7Week 5
South Carolina beat Texas A&M 17–9 in Week 10. Texas A&M beat Arkansas 34–7 in Week 5.Arkansas wins
31–21Week 7
25–23Week 10
41–34Week 3Arkansas beat Vanderbilt 31–21 in Week 7. Vanderbilt beat Mississippi State 25–23 in Week 10. Mississippi State beat South Carolina 41–34 in Week 3.Each arrow in a chain is a win, with the score and the week. At a neutral site, both teams travel.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com schedules and results, games through Nov 12, 2026. Miles as the crow flies, campus to stadium.
FAQ
South Carolina at Arkansas: questions people ask
South Carolina vs. Arkansas prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick South Carolina, 82% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. South Carolina's best matchup is their run game, 19th in EPA per rush, against Arkansas' run defense at 106th.
Where can I watch South Carolina vs. Arkansas, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 14, 7:45 PM ET at Razorback Stadium. It's on SEC Network.
What's the projected score of South Carolina vs. Arkansas?
SP+ projects South Carolina 35–20. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for South Carolina at Arkansas?
DraftKings has South Carolina −7.5, total 51.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the South Carolina vs. Arkansas series history?
Arkansas leads 14–10. Last meeting: Arkansas won 44–30 in 2022.
Who are the players to watch in South Carolina vs. Arkansas?
South Carolina: Lanorris Sellers (2,100 passing yards), Matthew Fuller (530 rushing yards) and Mazeo Bennett (497 receiving yards). Arkansas: KJ Jackson (1,853 passing yards), Cam Settles (314 rushing yards) and Chris Marshall (666 receiving yards). Season totals through Nov 12, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in South Carolina at Arkansas?
South Carolina's is Lanorris Sellers (2,100 passing yards this season); Arkansas' is KJ Jackson (1,853 passing yards this season).
Keep going
- South Carolina: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Arkansas: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Auburn at Mississippi State: the numbers' pick
- Alabama at Vanderbilt: the numbers' pick
- Tennessee at Texas A&M: the numbers' pick
- Missouri at Georgia: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 11 pick
- The SEC: standings, stats and rankings
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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Numbers through the games of Nov 12, 2026. SP+ as of Nov 11, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Recent form
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.