Syracuse vs. NC State Prediction and Pick, Week 11 2026
59% chance to win
- NC State's 3rd down defense has the edge on Syracuse's 3rd down offense. NC State is above average (29th) in 3rd downs allowed, and Syracuse is middle of the pack (76th) in 3rd down conversion.
- NC State's early-down offense has the edge on Syracuse's early-down defense. NC State is middle of the pack (76th) in SUPLEX, and Syracuse is bottom-40 (115th) in SUPLEX allowed.
Updated
Syracuse at NC State
Projected score: Syracuse 29, NC State 32 (total 60).SP+: NC State by 2.9, 58% chance to win.PRIME: NC State by 0.6.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 14, 12:00 PM ET
- TV
- ACC Network
- Where
- Carter-Finley Stadium
- Weather
- 54°, fair, wind 8 mph
- Line
- Syracuse −3, total 53.5
- Line movement
- Opened Syracuse −1.5; moved 1.5 points toward Syracuse. Total opened 56.5, down 3.
- Series
- NC State leads 13–4
- Last meeting
- Syracuse 24–17 in 2024
- Syracuse injuries
- Amari Odom (QB), out; Malachi Nelson (QB), questionable
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | NC State by 2.9 | 58% | 60 |
| PRIME | NC State by 0.6 | 52% | |
| Elo | NC State | 68% | |
| The line | Syracuse −3, opened −1.5 | 53.5, opened 56.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Thu, Nov 12, 10:24 PM ET.
Projected vs. what happened
What we projected for Louisiana vs. UL Monroe, and what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Syracuse or NC State?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
What do the sportsbooks say?
| Sportsbook | Syracuse spread | NC State spread | Over | Under | Syracuse moneyline | NC State moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | −3 −105 | +3 −115 | 53.5 −108 (best price) | 53.5 −112 | −148 | +124 |
| FanDuel | −2.5 −120 | +2.5 +100 | 53.5 −110 | 53.5 −110 | −142 | +120 |
| BetMGM | −3 −102 | +3 −115 | 53.5 −110 | 53.5 −108 | −145 | +120 |
| Caesars | −3 −103 | +3 −118 | 53.5 −114 | 53.5 −106 (best price) | −143 | +122 |
| ESPN BET | −2.5 −115 | +2.5 −105 | 53.5 −110 | 53.5 −110 | −145 | +125 (best price) |
| BetRivers | −2.5 −114 (best price) | +2.5 −108 | 53.5 −110 | 53.5 −113 | −141 | +114 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −2.5 −115 | +2.5 −110 | 53.5 −110 | 53.5 −110 | −140 (best price) | +115 |
| Fanatics | −3 −110 | +3 −110 (best price) | 53.5 −110 | 53.5 −110 | −150 | +125 (best price) |
Odds updated Thu., Nov. 12, 10:24 PM ET. The best price on each bet is marked. Prices move fast, so check the book before you bet. Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Syracuse vs. NC State?
All three ratings favor NC State, by 0.6 to 2.9 points. NC State's best matchup is their 3rd down defense, 29th in 3rd downs allowed, against Syracuse's 3rd down offense at 76th. Syracuse's way back in is their run-stopping front, 40th in line yards allowed per carry, against NC State's offensive line at 105th. We left out the edges built on Will Wilson, who's out.
Syracuse with the ball
NC State with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026; CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 12, 2026.
Recent form
How have Syracuse and NC State played lately?
Syracuse
2–3 in the last five.
- L 13–18 vs. Clemson Week 10
- W 30–27 vs. SMU Week 9
- W 31–30 at North Carolina Week 8
- L 26–34 vs. Louisville Week 7
- L 25–28 at Virginia Week 6
NC State
2–3 in the last five.
- L 3–41 vs. Duke Week 10
- W 31–10 vs. California Week 9
- L 28–31 at Stanford Week 8
- L 14–38 vs. Wake Forest Week 6
- W 31–28 vs. Louisville Week 5
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Syracuse and NC State?
Syracuse
- Amari Odom (QB), out (ACC availability report, initial, Nov 14). Shoulder surgery; Fran Brown ruled him out for the season (The Daily Orange). The ACC report lists him out; we keep "out for season" because of Brown's statement. (as of Oct 29, 2026)
- Malachi Nelson (QB), questionable (ACC availability report, initial, Nov 14). Tightrope surgery for a high-ankle sprain; Fran Brown said he hoped Nelson could return in a week or two (The Daily Orange, Yahoo Sports). The ACC report lists him doubtful (initial, Nov. 7). Steve Angeli is the main option. (as of Nov 5, 2026)
- Darien Williams (#7), out (ACC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Jai Eugene Jr. (#9), out (ACC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Shavane Anderson Jr. (RB), out (ACC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Jackson Iak (#62), out (ACC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Jayden Mann (#71), out (ACC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Terrell Wilfong (#88), out (ACC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Chris D'Appolonia (LB), questionable (ACC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Trevion Mack (#75), questionable (ACC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Alex Haskell (#93), questionable (ACC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Dillan Fontus (#95), questionable (ACC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
NC State
- Popo Aguirre (#0), out (ACC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Ronnie Royal, III (#2), out (ACC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Tristan Teasdell (#3), out (ACC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Vander Ploog (#4), out (ACC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Isaiah Crowell (#8), out (ACC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Wilson (QB), out (ACC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- AJ Richardson (#15), out (ACC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Yousef Mugharbil (#71), out (ACC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Spike Sowells Jr. (#72), out (ACC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Hunter Provience (TE), out (ACC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Ian Flynt (#87), out (ACC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Nick Konieczynski (#91), out (ACC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Harvey Dyson III (LB), questionable (ACC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Keenan Jackson (WR), questionable (ACC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Daniel Cruz (#50), questionable (ACC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Rico Jackson (#64), questionable (ACC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Jaren Sensabaugh (CB), probable (ACC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Tex Vaughn (#45), probable (ACC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Teague Andersen (#54), probable (ACC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Kanoah Vinesett (#94), probable (ACC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
How did Louisiana do without D'Wayne' Winfield?
With Winfield, Louisiana went 5–3 and won by 5.3 a game. Without him, this game included, they went 1–0 and won by 21.0 a game.
Where the data comes from. Scores and who played each game from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 12, 2026.
Chart data
| Week | Opponent | Score | Margin | Winfield played? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | at USC | 30–49 | −19.0 | Yes |
| 3 | vs. UAB | 21–14 | +7.0 | Yes |
| 4 | at Charlotte | 34–7 | +27.0 | Yes |
| 5 | vs. Arkansas State | 23–20 | +3.0 | Yes |
| 6 | at Louisiana Tech | 31–32 | −1.0 | Yes |
| 7 | vs. Troy | 33–6 | +27.0 | Yes |
| 8 | at Southern Miss | 31–35 | −4.0 | Yes |
| 10 | vs. South Alabama | 28–26 | +2.0 | Yes |
| 11 | at UL Monroe | 42–21 | +21.0 | No |
How did UL Monroe do without Aidan Armenta?
With Armenta, UL Monroe went 2–5 and lost by 17.6 a game. Without him, this game included, they went 0–2 and lost by 13.5 a game. Yards per play: 5.4 with him, 4.3 without.
Where the data comes from. Scores and who played each game from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 12, 2026.
Chart data
| Week | Opponent | Score | Margin | Armenta played? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | at Mississippi State | 13–62 | −49.0 | Yes |
| 2 | at UAB | 20–26 | −6.0 | No |
| 4 | vs. Florida Atlantic | 17–45 | −28.0 | Yes |
| 5 | at South Alabama | 35–52 | −17.0 | Yes |
| 7 | vs. Louisiana Tech | 0–24 | −24.0 | Yes |
| 8 | at Troy | 21–14 | +7.0 | Yes |
| 9 | vs. Southern Miss | 21–35 | −14.0 | Yes |
| 10 | at Arkansas State | 19–17 | +2.0 | Yes |
| 11 | vs. Louisiana | 21–42 | −21.0 | No |
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Syracuse and NC State compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Syracuse and NC State are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Nov 12, 2026.
The players in charts
How Syracuse's and NC State's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Nov 12, 2026.
RatingsEven 5–5
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Syracuse and NC State?
On a neutral field, SP+ has NC State 0.4 points better (81st to 85th). PRIME has Syracuse by 1.9 instead. The two ratings split on Syracuse's offense: 80th in SP+, 50th in PRIME. Elo, which only sees results, also has NC State ahead (83rd to 100th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Where the data comes from: SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update), last pulled Nov 11, 2026; PRIME (primecfb.com), updated Nov 11, 2026; Elo from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 12, 2026.
Opponent-adjustedSyracuse 12–4
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Syracuse's offense ranks 87th in adjusted EPA per play, and the NC State defense it faces ranks 120th in EPA per play allowed. NC State's offense ranks 72nd against Syracuse's 84th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Syracuse's offense against NC State's defense. The biggest edge on the board is Syracuse's efficiency: 59th in adjusted success rate, against NC State's 107th-ranked defense. Adjust for opponents and NC State's offense falls from 46th to 72nd in EPA per play: a lot of that came against soft defenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 12, 2026.
EPAEven 4–4
Who's more efficient, Syracuse or NC State?
Syracuse is better running (63rd in EPA per rush) than throwing (89th). NC State's run defense ranks 100th, so that's an edge. NC State is better throwing (15th in EPA per pass) than running (111th). Syracuse's pass defense ranks 37th. On third down, NC State has the edge: their offense ranks 11th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense they face ranks 45th.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 12, 2026.
ScoringSyracuse 2–0
Who scores more, Syracuse or NC State?
Syracuse outscores FBS opponents by 3.9 a game, and NC State by 1.3. Syracuse's offense ranks 60th in scoring, and the NC State defense it faces ranks 97th in points allowed. NC State's offense ranks 64th against Syracuse's 74th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Syracuse's offense against NC State's defense.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026.
OffenseNC State 9–3
Which offense has the edge?
Syracuse's best matchup is big plays: their offense ranks 81st in explosive play rate, and NC State's defense ranks 120th in explosive plays allowed. NC State's best matchup is third downs: their offense ranks 18th in 3rd down conversion rate, and Syracuse's defense ranks 61st in 3rd down conversions allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026.
DefenseSyracuse 10–1
Which defense has the edge?
NC State's defense is best placed to get off the field on third down: it ranks 29th in 3rd down conversions allowed, and Syracuse's offense is middle of the pack in 3rd down conversion rate (76th).
What opponents managed against them.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026.
Up frontSyracuse 7–4
Who wins up front?
Syracuse has the better number in 7 of 11. The biggest gap is front-seven havoc, where Syracuse ranks 18th and NC State 116th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026.
TurnoversSyracuse 5–2
Who wins the turnover battle?
Neither team has a real turnover edge: Syracuse is 0.0 a game and NC State −0.1. Fumble recoveries are mostly luck, and Syracuse's takeaways lean on them (0.8 of 1.3 a game).
Per game, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026.
TalentNC State 8–3
Which team has more talent?
NC State has the more talented roster (32nd in the 247Sports talent composite; Syracuse is 35th). But Syracuse plays further above their talent: −7.9 points of SP+ beyond what their roster predicts, to NC State's −8.2.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Where the data comes from: 247Sports, preseason; 247Sports talent composite against SP+ (last pulled Nov 11, 2026); CollegeFootballData.com returning production, preseason; 247Sports recruiting rankings, via CollegeFootballData.com.
MoneySyracuse 2–1
Which roster costs more?
NC State's roster is valued at $19.2M, Syracuse's at $17.9M. Dollar for dollar, Syracuse plays better: −5.1 points of SP+ above what their payroll predicts, to −6.3 for NC State.
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
Where the data comes from: The NIL Standard, preseason estimates; The NIL Standard's preseason roster values against this season's results.
RECEIPTSEven 2–2
Where did each team's wins come from?
Syracuse is −0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (−1.3). NC State is −0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (−1.4).
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Where the data comes from: our split of every game result, games through Nov 12, 2026, using SP+ (last pulled Nov 11, 2026), the 247Sports talent composite and CollegeFootballData.com returning production.
The trip
How far is Syracuse traveling?
It's Syracuse's 5th road trip of the season. Counting this one, they'll have traveled 3,743 miles, there and back, 102nd of 138 in FBS.
The transitive property
The shortest chain of real results this season that “proves” each team wins.
Syracuse wins
31–30Week 8
24–20Week 7
41–3Week 10
Syracuse beat North Carolina 31–30 in Week 8. North Carolina beat Duke 24–20 in Week 7. Duke beat NC State 41–3 in Week 10.NC State wins
31–10Week 9
21–18Week 2NC State beat California 31–10 in Week 9. California beat Syracuse 21–18 in Week 2.Each arrow in a chain is a win, with the score and the week. At a neutral site, both teams travel.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com schedules and results, games through Nov 12, 2026. Miles as the crow flies, campus to stadium.
FAQ
Syracuse at NC State: questions people ask
Syracuse vs. NC State prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick NC State, 59% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. NC State's best matchup is their 3rd down defense, 29th in 3rd downs allowed, against Syracuse's 3rd down offense at 76th.
Where can I watch Syracuse vs. NC State, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 14, 12:00 PM ET at Carter-Finley Stadium. It's on ACC Network.
What's the projected score of Syracuse vs. NC State?
SP+ projects NC State 32–29. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for Syracuse at NC State?
DraftKings has Syracuse −3, total 53.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the Syracuse vs. NC State series history?
NC State leads 13–4. Last meeting: Syracuse won 24–17 in 2024.
Who are the players to watch in Syracuse vs. NC State?
Syracuse: Steven Angeli (1,449 passing yards), Tylik Hill (538 rushing yards) and Umari Hatcher (964 receiving yards). NC State: CJ Bailey (2,078 passing yards), Davion Gause (378 rushing yards) and Keenan Jackson (477 receiving yards). Season totals through Nov 12, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Syracuse at NC State?
Syracuse's is Steven Angeli (1,449 passing yards this season); NC State's is CJ Bailey (2,078 passing yards this season).
Who's out for Syracuse at NC State?
Syracuse: Amari Odom (QB), out; Malachi Nelson (QB), questionable.
Keep going
- Syracuse: every stat, rank and the schedule
- NC State: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Florida State at Pittsburgh: the numbers' pick
- Duke at Miami: the numbers' pick
- Wake Forest at SMU: the numbers' pick
- Georgia Tech at Clemson: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 11 pick
- The ACC: standings, stats and rankings
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
Daily collegefootball chartsin your inbox.
The best charts from the site, by email. Free. Unsubscribe whenever.
Numbers through the games of Nov 12, 2026. SP+ as of Nov 11, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Recent form
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.