Texas vs. LSU Prediction and Pick, Week 11 2026
The numbers sayLSU55% chance to win
- LSU should get home. LSU is top-10 (2nd) in sack rate, and Texas is bottom-20 (124th) in sacks allowed per dropback.
- LSU's front should win up front. LSU is top-10 (6th) in line yards allowed per carry, and Texas is bottom-20 (120th) in line yards per carry.
Updated
Texas at LSU
Projected score: Texas 22, LSU 24 (total 47).SP+: LSU by 1.9, 55% chance to win.PRIME: LSU by 3.8.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 14, 7:30 PM ET
- TV
- ABC
- Where
- Tiger Stadium (LA)
- Weather
- 51°, cloudy, wind 5 mph
- Line
- LSU −4, total 46.5
- Line movement
- Opened Texas −2.5; moved 6.5 points toward LSU. Total opened 54.5, down 8.
- Series
- Texas leads 8–7–1
- Last meeting
- LSU 45–38 in 2019
- Texas injuries
- Colin Simmons (EDGE), questionable
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | LSU by 1.9 | 55% | 47 |
| PRIME | LSU by 3.8 | 61% | |
| Elo | LSU | 50% | |
| The line | LSU −4, opened Texas −2.5 | 46.5, opened 54.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Thu, Nov 12, 10:24 PM ET.
Projected vs. what happened
What we projected for Louisiana vs. UL Monroe, and what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Texas or LSU?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
What do the sportsbooks say?
| Sportsbook | Texas spread | LSU spread | Over | Under | Texas moneyline | LSU moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +4 −110 | −4 −110 | 46.5 −105 (best price) | 46.5 −115 | +154 | −185 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 +100 | −3.5 −120 | 46.5 −110 | 46.5 −110 (best price) | +146 | −176 |
| BetMGM | +4 −108 | −4 −110 | 46.5 −108 | 46.5 −110 (best price) | +150 | −175 (best price) |
| Caesars | +4 −110 | −4 −109 | 46.5 −106 | 46.5 −114 | +152 | −182 |
| ESPN BET | +4.5 −110 (best price) | −4.5 −110 | 46.5 −105 (best price) | 46.5 −115 | +150 | −175 (best price) |
| BetRivers | +4 −113 | −4 −110 | 46.5 −112 | 46.5 −112 | +143 | −180 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 −105 | −3.5 −115 (best price) | 46.5 −110 | 46.5 −110 (best price) | +145 | −180 |
| Fanatics | +4 −110 | −4 −110 | 46.5 −110 | 46.5 −110 (best price) | +155 (best price) | −190 |
Odds updated Thu., Nov. 12, 10:24 PM ET. The best price on each bet is marked. Prices move fast, so check the book before you bet. Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Texas vs. LSU?
All three ratings favor LSU, by 1.9 to 3.8 points. LSU's best matchup is their pass rush, 2nd in sack rate, against Texas' pass protection at 124th. Texas' way back in is their run defense, 13th in yards per carry allowed, against LSU's run game at 87th.
Texas with the ball
LSU with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026; CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 12, 2026.
Recent form
How have Texas and LSU played lately?
Texas
3–2 in the last five. Won 3 straight.
- W 34–20 at Missouri Week 10
- W 31–3 vs. Mississippi State Week 9
- W 34–27 vs. Ole Miss Week 8
- L 24–27 vs. Florida Week 7
- L 24–27 vs. Oklahoma Week 6
LSU
3–2 in the last five.
- L 13–31 vs. Alabama Week 10
- W 38–17 at Auburn Week 8
- W 31–0 vs. Mississippi State Week 7
- L 34–35 at Kentucky Week 6
- W 63–14 vs. McNeese Week 5
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Texas and LSU?
Texas
- Colin Simmons (EDGE), questionable. High ankle sprain in the Oct. 17 loss to Florida; early reports said three to four weeks (Pete Thamel, ESPN; Orange Bloods). The SEC report moved him to questionable (initial, Nov. 7); Yahoo Sports said he was on the brink of returning. He leads the nation in sacks and tackles for loss. (as of Nov 5, 2026)
- Hollywood Smothers (#2), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Trevor Goosby (#74), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Nick Townsend (#81), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Richard Wesley (#99), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Hero Kanu (DL), questionable (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
LSU
- Dashawn Spears (S), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Phillip Wright III (#15), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Charles Ross II (#26), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Richard Anderson (#88), out (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Whit Weeks (#7), questionable (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Gabriel Reliford (#19), probable (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Weston Davis (#75), probable (SEC availability report, initial, Nov 14)
How did Louisiana do without D'Wayne' Winfield?
With Winfield, Louisiana went 5–3 and won by 5.3 a game. Without him, this game included, they went 1–0 and won by 21.0 a game.
Where the data comes from. Scores and who played each game from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 12, 2026.
Chart data
| Week | Opponent | Score | Margin | Winfield played? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | at USC | 30–49 | −19.0 | Yes |
| 3 | vs. UAB | 21–14 | +7.0 | Yes |
| 4 | at Charlotte | 34–7 | +27.0 | Yes |
| 5 | vs. Arkansas State | 23–20 | +3.0 | Yes |
| 6 | at Louisiana Tech | 31–32 | −1.0 | Yes |
| 7 | vs. Troy | 33–6 | +27.0 | Yes |
| 8 | at Southern Miss | 31–35 | −4.0 | Yes |
| 10 | vs. South Alabama | 28–26 | +2.0 | Yes |
| 11 | at UL Monroe | 42–21 | +21.0 | No |
How did UL Monroe do without Aidan Armenta?
With Armenta, UL Monroe went 2–5 and lost by 17.6 a game. Without him, this game included, they went 0–2 and lost by 13.5 a game. Yards per play: 5.4 with him, 4.3 without.
Where the data comes from. Scores and who played each game from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 12, 2026.
Chart data
| Week | Opponent | Score | Margin | Armenta played? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | at Mississippi State | 13–62 | −49.0 | Yes |
| 2 | at UAB | 20–26 | −6.0 | No |
| 4 | vs. Florida Atlantic | 17–45 | −28.0 | Yes |
| 5 | at South Alabama | 35–52 | −17.0 | Yes |
| 7 | vs. Louisiana Tech | 0–24 | −24.0 | Yes |
| 8 | at Troy | 21–14 | +7.0 | Yes |
| 9 | vs. Southern Miss | 21–35 | −14.0 | Yes |
| 10 | at Arkansas State | 19–17 | +2.0 | Yes |
| 11 | vs. Louisiana | 21–42 | −21.0 | No |
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Texas and LSU compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Texas and LSU are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Nov 12, 2026.
The players in charts
How Texas' and LSU's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Nov 12, 2026.
RatingsTexas 7–3
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Texas and LSU?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Texas 0.6 points better (5th to 7th). PRIME has LSU by 1.3 instead. Elo, which only sees results, also has Texas ahead (7th to 10th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Where the data comes from: SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update), last pulled Nov 11, 2026; PRIME (primecfb.com), updated Nov 11, 2026; Elo from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 12, 2026.
Opponent-adjustedLSU 9–7
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Texas' offense ranks 65th in adjusted EPA per play, and the LSU defense it faces ranks 9th in EPA per play allowed. LSU's offense ranks 14th against Texas' 4th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge. Adjust for opponents and Texas' offense climbs from 105th to 65th in EPA per play: it has done its work against good defenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 12, 2026.
EPALSU 7–1
Who's more efficient, Texas or LSU?
Texas is better throwing (55th in EPA per pass) than running (118th). LSU's pass defense ranks 10th, so the defense has the better of it. LSU is better throwing (27th in EPA per pass) than running (45th). Texas' pass defense ranks 21st, so that's strength on strength.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 12, 2026.
ScoringEven 1–1
Who scores more, Texas or LSU?
Texas outscores FBS opponents by 13.7 a game, and LSU by 19.4. Texas' offense ranks 48th in scoring, and the LSU defense it faces ranks 19th in points allowed. LSU's offense ranks 18th against Texas' 18th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026.
OffenseLSU 12–0
Which offense has the edge?
Texas has no clear edge here. Their best is 3rd down conversion rate, 67th, against a defense ranked 12th in 3rd down conversions allowed. LSU has no clear edge here. Their best is 3rd down conversion rate, 13th, against a defense ranked 20th in 3rd down conversions allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026.
DefenseTexas 6–5
Which defense has the edge?
Texas' defense is best placed to stop the run: it ranks 13th in yards per carry allowed, and LSU's offense is middle of the pack in yards per carry (87th). That's a mismatch. LSU's defense is best placed to get home: it ranks 2nd in sack rate, and Texas' offense is bottom-20 at avoiding sacks (124th). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026.
Up frontLSU 12–0
Who wins up front?
LSU has the better number in 12 of 12. The biggest gap is line yards per carry, where LSU ranks 34th and Texas 130th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026.
TurnoversLSU 4–3
Who wins the turnover battle?
Neither team has a real turnover edge: Texas is −0.4 a game and LSU −0.4.
Per game, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026.
TalentTexas 8–3
Which team has more talent?
Texas has the more talented roster (2nd in the 247Sports talent composite; LSU is 8th). But LSU plays further above their talent: +6.5 points of SP+ beyond what their roster predicts, to Texas' +3.9.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Where the data comes from: 247Sports, preseason; 247Sports talent composite against SP+ (last pulled Nov 11, 2026); CollegeFootballData.com returning production, preseason; 247Sports recruiting rankings, via CollegeFootballData.com.
MoneyLSU 2–1
Which roster costs more?
Texas' roster is valued at $47.5M, LSU's at $41.4M. Dollar for dollar, LSU plays better: +2.0 points of SP+ above what their payroll predicts, to −0.4 for Texas.
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
Where the data comes from: The NIL Standard, preseason estimates; The NIL Standard's preseason roster values against this season's results.
RECEIPTSTexas 3–2
Where did each team's wins come from?
Texas is +2.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is roster (+2.9). LSU is +1.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is roster (+2.1). LSU's record is 1.7 wins worse than their play on bad luck, so they're better than the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Where the data comes from: our split of every game result, games through Nov 12, 2026, using SP+ (last pulled Nov 11, 2026), the 247Sports talent composite and CollegeFootballData.com returning production.
The trip
How far is Texas traveling?
It's Texas' 4th road trip of the season. Counting this one, they'll have traveled 4,266 miles, there and back, 91st of 138 in FBS.
The transitive property
The shortest chain of real results this season that “proves” each team wins.
Texas wins
34–27Week 8
32–24Week 3
Texas beat Ole Miss 34–27 in Week 8. Ole Miss beat LSU 32–24 in Week 3.LSU wins
31–0Week 7
31–24Week 4
45–17Week 5
27–24Week 7LSU beat Mississippi State 31–0 in Week 7. Mississippi State beat Missouri 31–24 in Week 4. Missouri beat Florida 45–17 in Week 5. Florida beat Texas 27–24 in Week 7.Each arrow in a chain is a win, with the score and the week. At a neutral site, both teams travel.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com schedules and results, games through Nov 12, 2026. Miles as the crow flies, campus to stadium.
FAQ
Texas at LSU: questions people ask
Texas vs. LSU prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick LSU, 55% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. LSU's best matchup is their pass rush, 2nd in sack rate, against Texas' pass protection at 124th.
Where can I watch Texas vs. LSU, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 14, 7:30 PM ET at Tiger Stadium (LA). It's on ABC.
What's the projected score of Texas vs. LSU?
SP+ projects LSU 24–22. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for Texas at LSU?
DraftKings has LSU −4, total 46.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the Texas vs. LSU series history?
Texas leads 8–7–1. Last meeting: LSU won 45–38 in 2019.
Who are the players to watch in Texas vs. LSU?
Texas: Arch Manning (2,027 passing yards), Raleek Brown (537 rushing yards) and Ryan Wingo (523 receiving yards). LSU: Sam Leavitt (2,551 passing yards), Dilin Jones (715 rushing yards) and Jackson Harris (800 receiving yards). Season totals through Nov 12, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Texas at LSU?
Texas' is Arch Manning (2,027 passing yards this season); LSU's is Sam Leavitt (2,551 passing yards this season).
Who's out for Texas at LSU?
Texas: Colin Simmons (EDGE), questionable.
Keep going
- Texas: every stat, rank and the schedule
- LSU: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Auburn at Mississippi State: the numbers' pick
- Alabama at Vanderbilt: the numbers' pick
- Tennessee at Texas A&M: the numbers' pick
- Missouri at Georgia: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 11 pick
- The SEC: standings, stats and rankings
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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Numbers through the games of Nov 12, 2026. SP+ as of Nov 11, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Recent form
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.