Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State Prediction, Week 11 2026
The numbers sayOklahoma State53% chance to win
- Oklahoma State's offense should move it. Oklahoma State is top-10 (5th) in yards per play, and Texas Tech is bottom-40 (92nd) in yards per play allowed.
- Oklahoma State should hit big plays. Oklahoma State is top-10 (3rd) in explosive play rate, and Texas Tech is middle of the pack (87th) in explosive plays allowed.
Updated
Texas Tech at Oklahoma State
Projected score: Texas Tech 37, Oklahoma State 37 (total 74).SP+: a coin flip.PRIME: Oklahoma State by 12.7, the other side.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 14, 9:30 PM ET
- TV
- ESPN
- Where
- Boone Pickens Stadium
- Weather
- 46°, cloudy, wind 13 mph
- Line
- Oklahoma State −3.5, total 73.5
- Line movement
- Opened Texas Tech −15.5; moved 19 points toward Oklahoma State. Total opened 61.5, up 12.
- Series
- Texas Tech leads 25–24–3
- Last meeting
- Texas Tech 42–0 in 2025
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Texas Tech by 0.1 | 50% | 74 |
| PRIME | Oklahoma State by 12.7 | 82% | |
| Elo | Texas Tech | 73% | |
| The line | Oklahoma State −3.5, opened Texas Tech −15.5 | 73.5, opened 61.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Thu, Nov 12, 10:24 PM ET.
Projected vs. what happened
What we projected for Louisiana vs. UL Monroe, and what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Texas Tech or Oklahoma State?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
What do the sportsbooks say?
| Sportsbook | Texas Tech spread | Oklahoma State spread | Over | Under | Texas Tech moneyline | Oklahoma State moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +3.5 −115 | −3.5 −105 | 73.5 −105 | 73.5 −115 | +142 (best price) | −170 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 −115 | −3.5 −105 | 73.5 −110 | 73.5 −110 (best price) | +132 | −160 |
| BetMGM | +3.5 −112 (best price) | −3.5 −105 | 73.5 −108 | 73.5 −110 (best price) | +138 | −165 |
| Caesars | +3.5 −117 | −3.5 −103 | 73.5 −108 | 73.5 −112 | +140 | −170 |
| ESPN BET | +3.5 −115 | −3.5 −105 | 72.5 −115 (best price) | 72.5 −105 | +140 | −165 |
| BetRivers | +3 −107 | −3 −117 (best price) | 73.5 −112 | 73.5 −112 | +128 | −159 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 −120 | −3.5 −105 | 73.5 −110 | 73.5 −110 (best price) | +130 | −155 (best price) |
| Fanatics | +3.5 −115 | −3.5 −105 | 73.5 −110 | 73.5 −110 (best price) | +140 | −170 |
Odds updated Thu., Nov. 12, 10:24 PM ET. The best price on each bet is marked. Prices move fast, so check the book before you bet. Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State?
The ratings split and average out to about 50-50, with Oklahoma State ahead by a hair. Oklahoma State's best matchup is their offense, 5th in yards per play, against Texas Tech's defense at 92nd. Texas Tech's way back in is their scoring offense, 15th in points per game, against Oklahoma State's scoring defense at 93rd. We left out the edges built on Quinten Joyner and Coy Eakin, who are out.
Texas Tech with the ball
Texas Tech
Oklahoma StateTexas TechTexas TechTexas TechTexas TechOklahoma State with the ball
Oklahoma StateOklahoma StateTexas TechOklahoma StateOklahoma StateOklahoma StateOklahoma StateEach row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026; CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 12, 2026.
Recent form
How have Texas Tech and Oklahoma State played lately?
Texas Tech
4–1 in the last five. Won 2 straight.
- W 53–48 vs. West Virginia Week 10
- W 34–26 vs. Arizona Week 9
- L 24–37 at Cincinnati Week 8
- W 53–25 vs. Arizona State Week 7
- W 29–7 at Colorado Week 5
Oklahoma State
3–2 in the last five.
- W 66–28 at Kansas State Week 10
- L 49–51 at Iowa State Week 9
- W 57–24 vs. Colorado Week 8
- L 32–35 at Houston Week 7
- W 42–28 vs. UCF Week 6
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Texas Tech and Oklahoma State?
Texas Tech
- Joyner (RB), out (Big 12 availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Eakin (WR), out (Big 12 availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Jalen Jones (#6), out (Big 12 availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Ansel Nedore (#33), out (Big 12 availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Cameron Dickey (RB), questionable (Big 12 availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Malcolm Simmons (#11), questionable (Big 12 availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Austin Romaine (LB), questionable (Big 12 availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Leyton Stone (#17), questionable (Big 12 availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Miquel Dingle Jr. (#21), questionable (Big 12 availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Howard Sampson (#79), probable (Big 12 availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Will Hammond (QB), hasn't played since Week 8 (205 pass attempts in 7 games before that)
Oklahoma State
- Dayvon Standard (#19), out (Big 12 availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Carson Kolb (#44), out (Big 12 availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Landon Dean (#88), out (Big 12 availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Tate Romney (LB), doubtful (Big 12 availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Desmond Magiya (#76), doubtful (Big 12 availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Johnny Dickson III (#54), probable (Big 12 availability report, initial, Nov 14)
How did Louisiana do without D'Wayne' Winfield?
With Winfield, Louisiana went 5–3 and won by 5.3 a game. Without him, this game included, they went 1–0 and won by 21.0 a game.
Where the data comes from. Scores and who played each game from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 12, 2026.
Chart data
| Week | Opponent | Score | Margin | Winfield played? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | at USC | 30–49 | −19.0 | Yes |
| 3 | vs. UAB | 21–14 | +7.0 | Yes |
| 4 | at Charlotte | 34–7 | +27.0 | Yes |
| 5 | vs. Arkansas State | 23–20 | +3.0 | Yes |
| 6 | at Louisiana Tech | 31–32 | −1.0 | Yes |
| 7 | vs. Troy | 33–6 | +27.0 | Yes |
| 8 | at Southern Miss | 31–35 | −4.0 | Yes |
| 10 | vs. South Alabama | 28–26 | +2.0 | Yes |
| 11 | at UL Monroe | 42–21 | +21.0 | No |
How did UL Monroe do without Aidan Armenta?
With Armenta, UL Monroe went 2–5 and lost by 17.6 a game. Without him, this game included, they went 0–2 and lost by 13.5 a game. Yards per play: 5.4 with him, 4.3 without.
Where the data comes from. Scores and who played each game from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 12, 2026.
Chart data
| Week | Opponent | Score | Margin | Armenta played? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | at Mississippi State | 13–62 | −49.0 | Yes |
| 2 | at UAB | 20–26 | −6.0 | No |
| 4 | vs. Florida Atlantic | 17–45 | −28.0 | Yes |
| 5 | at South Alabama | 35–52 | −17.0 | Yes |
| 7 | vs. Louisiana Tech | 0–24 | −24.0 | Yes |
| 8 | at Troy | 21–14 | +7.0 | Yes |
| 9 | vs. Southern Miss | 21–35 | −14.0 | Yes |
| 10 | at Arkansas State | 19–17 | +2.0 | Yes |
| 11 | vs. Louisiana | 21–42 | −21.0 | No |
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Texas Tech and Oklahoma State compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Texas Tech and Oklahoma State are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Nov 12, 2026.
The players in charts
How Texas Tech's and Oklahoma State's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Nov 12, 2026.
RatingsTexas Tech 6–4
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Texas Tech and Oklahoma State?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Texas Tech 2.6 points better (13th to 20th). PRIME has Oklahoma State by 10.2 instead. The two ratings split on Texas Tech's offense: 8th in SP+, 45th in PRIME. Elo, which only sees results, also has Texas Tech ahead (15th to 49th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Where the data comes from: SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update), last pulled Nov 11, 2026; PRIME (primecfb.com), updated Nov 11, 2026; Elo from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 12, 2026.
Opponent-adjustedOklahoma State 9–7
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Texas Tech's offense ranks 44th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Oklahoma State defense it faces ranks 57th in EPA per play allowed. Oklahoma State's offense ranks 19th against Texas Tech's 33rd-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge. The biggest edge on the board is Texas Tech's offensive line in the run game: 23rd in adjusted line yards per carry, against Oklahoma State's 59th-ranked defense.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 12, 2026.
EPATexas Tech 6–2
Who's more efficient, Texas Tech or Oklahoma State?
Texas Tech is about as good throwing (37th in EPA per pass) as running (31st). Oklahoma State is better throwing (15th in EPA per pass) than running (45th). Texas Tech's pass defense ranks 46th, so that's an edge. On third down, Texas Tech has the edge: their offense ranks 66th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense they face ranks 101st.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 12, 2026.
ScoringEven 1–1
Who scores more, Texas Tech or Oklahoma State?
Texas Tech outscores FBS opponents by 13.5 a game, and Oklahoma State by 16.7. Texas Tech's offense ranks 15th in scoring, and the Oklahoma State defense it faces ranks 93rd in points allowed. Oklahoma State's offense ranks 3rd against Texas Tech's 65th-ranked defense. Both offenses have the edge on the defenses they face.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026.
OffenseOklahoma State 10–2
Which offense has the edge?
Texas Tech's best matchup is early downs: their offense ranks 22nd in SUPLEX, and Oklahoma State's defense ranks 77th in SUPLEX allowed. Oklahoma State's best matchup is big plays: their offense ranks 3rd in explosive play rate, and Texas Tech's defense ranks 87th in explosive plays allowed. That's a mismatch.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026.
DefenseOklahoma State 6–5
Which defense has the edge?
Texas Tech's defense is best placed to pick off passes: it ranks 19th in interception rate, and Oklahoma State's offense is middle of the pack at avoiding interceptions (78th). Oklahoma State's defense is best placed to pick off passes: it ranks 12th in interception rate, and Texas Tech's offense is middle of the pack at avoiding interceptions (90th). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026.
Up frontTexas Tech 7–5
Who wins up front?
Texas Tech has the better number in 7 of 12. The biggest gap is front-seven havoc allowed, where Oklahoma State ranks 7th and Texas Tech 93rd.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026.
TurnoversTexas Tech 5–1
Who wins the turnover battle?
Neither team has a real turnover edge: Texas Tech is +0.1 a game and Oklahoma State −0.1.
Per game, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026.
TalentTexas Tech 10–1
Which team has more talent?
Texas Tech has the more talented roster (28th in the 247Sports talent composite; Oklahoma State is 65th). But Oklahoma State plays further above their talent: +14.6 points of SP+ beyond what their roster predicts, to Texas Tech's +11.5.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Where the data comes from: 247Sports, preseason; 247Sports talent composite against SP+ (last pulled Nov 11, 2026); CollegeFootballData.com returning production, preseason; 247Sports recruiting rankings, via CollegeFootballData.com.
MoneyOklahoma State 3–0
Which roster costs more?
Texas Tech's roster is valued at $33.4M, Oklahoma State's at $22.2M. Dollar for dollar, Oklahoma State plays better: +8.4 points of SP+ above what their payroll predicts, to +2.0 for Texas Tech.
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
Where the data comes from: The NIL Standard, preseason estimates; The NIL Standard's preseason roster values against this season's results.
RECEIPTSTexas Tech 4–1
Where did each team's wins come from?
Texas Tech is +3.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (+1.9). Oklahoma State is +1.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (+2.8). Oklahoma State's record is 1.1 wins worse than their play on bad luck, so they're better than the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Where the data comes from: our split of every game result, games through Nov 12, 2026, using SP+ (last pulled Nov 11, 2026), the 247Sports talent composite and CollegeFootballData.com returning production.
The trip
How far is Texas Tech traveling?
It's Texas Tech's 4th road trip of the season. Counting this one, they'll have traveled 6,423 miles, there and back, 52nd of 138 in FBS.
The transitive property
The shortest chain of real results this season that “proves” each team wins.
Texas Tech wins
28–26Week 3
35–32Week 7Texas Tech beat Houston 28–26 in Week 3. Houston beat Oklahoma State 35–32 in Week 7.Oklahoma State wins
41–24Week 4
45–42Week 7
37–24Week 8Oklahoma State beat West Virginia 41–24 in Week 4. West Virginia beat Cincinnati 45–42 in Week 7. Cincinnati beat Texas Tech 37–24 in Week 8.Each arrow in a chain is a win, with the score and the week. At a neutral site, both teams travel.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com schedules and results, games through Nov 12, 2026. Miles as the crow flies, campus to stadium.
FAQ
Texas Tech at Oklahoma State: questions people ask
Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Oklahoma State, 53% chance to win. PRIME has Oklahoma State; SP+ and Elo have Texas Tech. Oklahoma State's best matchup is their offense, 5th in yards per play, against Texas Tech's defense at 92nd.
Where can I watch Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 14, 9:30 PM ET at Boone Pickens Stadium. It's on ESPN.
What's the projected score of Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State?
SP+ projects Texas Tech 37–37. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for Texas Tech at Oklahoma State?
DraftKings has Oklahoma State −3.5, total 73.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State series history?
Texas Tech leads 25–24–3. Last meeting: Texas Tech won 42–0 in 2025.
Who are the players to watch in Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State?
Texas Tech: Will Hammond (1,561 passing yards), J'Koby Williams (954 rushing yards) and Kenny Johnson (632 receiving yards). Oklahoma State: Drew Mestemaker (2,962 passing yards), Caleb Hawkins (1,081 rushing yards) and Justin Bowick (790 receiving yards). Season totals through Nov 12, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Texas Tech at Oklahoma State?
Texas Tech's is Will Hammond (1,561 passing yards this season); Oklahoma State's is Drew Mestemaker (2,962 passing yards this season).
Who's out for Texas Tech at Oklahoma State?
Texas Tech: Will Hammond (QB) hasn't played since Week 8.
Keep going
- Texas Tech: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Oklahoma State: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Houston at Colorado: the numbers' pick
- Cincinnati at Iowa State: the numbers' pick
- Kansas State at TCU: the numbers' pick
- Baylor at BYU: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 11 pick
- The Big 12: standings, stats and rankings
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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Numbers through the games of Nov 12, 2026. SP+ as of Nov 11, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Recent form
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.