Troy vs. South Alabama Prediction and Pick, Week 11 2026
The numbers saySouth Alabama59% chance to win
- South Alabama should run it. South Alabama is top-25 (22nd) in EPA per rush, and Troy is middle of the pack (66th) in EPA per rush allowed.
- South Alabama's scoring offense has the edge on Troy's scoring defense. South Alabama is above average (39th) in points per game, and Troy is middle of the pack (83rd) in points allowed.
Updated
Troy at South Alabama
Projected score: Troy 27, South Alabama 30 (total 57).SP+: South Alabama by 2.3, 57% chance to win.PRIME: South Alabama by 2.8.
- Rivalry
- Battle for the Belt
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 14, 7:00 PM ET
- TV
- ESPN+
- Where
- Hancock Whitney Stadium
- Weather
- 48°, clear, wind 2 mph
- Line
- South Alabama −3, total 55.5
- Line movement
- Opened South Alabama −2.5; moved 0.5 points toward South Alabama. Total opened 56.5, down 1.
- Series
- Troy leads 10–4
- Last meeting
- Troy 31–24 in 2025
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | South Alabama by 2.3 | 57% | 57 |
| PRIME | South Alabama by 2.8 | 58% | |
| Elo | South Alabama | 61% | |
| The line | South Alabama −3, opened −2.5 | 55.5, opened 56.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Thu, Nov 12, 10:24 PM ET.
Projected vs. what happened
What we projected for Louisiana vs. UL Monroe, and what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Troy or South Alabama?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
What do the sportsbooks say?
| Sportsbook | Troy spread | South Alabama spread | Over | Under | Troy moneyline | South Alabama moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +3 −105 | −3 −115 | 55.5 −112 | 55.5 −108 | +130 | −155 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 +100 | −2.5 −120 (best price) | 55.5 −110 (best price) | 55.5 −110 | +122 | −146 |
| BetMGM | +3 −110 | −3 −108 | 55.5 −112 | 55.5 −105 | +125 | −145 (best price) |
| Caesars | +3 −108 | −3 −112 | 55.5 −115 | 55.5 −105 | +128 | −150 |
| ESPN BET | +3.5 −115 (best price) | −3.5 −105 | 56.5 −110 | 56.5 −110 (best price) | +130 | −150 |
| BetRivers | +3 −115 | −3 −108 | 55.5 −113 | 55.5 −109 | +125 | −157 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 −130 | −3.5 +110 | 55.5 −110 (best price) | 55.5 −110 | +145 (best price) | −175 |
| Fanatics | +3 −110 | −3 −110 | 56.5 −110 | 56.5 −110 (best price) | +130 | −155 |
Odds updated Thu., Nov. 12, 10:24 PM ET. The best price on each bet is marked. Prices move fast, so check the book before you bet. Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Troy vs. South Alabama?
All three ratings favor South Alabama, by 2.3 to 2.8 points. South Alabama's best matchup is their run game, 22nd in EPA per rush, against Troy's run defense at 66th. Troy's way back in is their run game, 63rd in yards per carry, against South Alabama's run defense at 135th.
Troy with the ball
Troy
South AlabamaSouth AlabamaSouth Alabama with the ball
South AlabamaSouth AlabamaTroySouth AlabamaEach row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026; CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 12, 2026.
Recent form
How have Troy and South Alabama played lately?
Troy
2–3 in the last five.
- L 17–41 vs. Louisiana Tech Week 10
- W 24–21 at James Madison Week 9
- L 14–21 vs. UL Monroe Week 8
- L 6–33 at Louisiana Week 7
- W 55–34 vs. Southern Miss Week 6
South Alabama
2–3 in the last five. Lost 3 straight.
- L 26–28 at Louisiana Week 10
- L 20–35 vs. Louisiana Tech Week 9
- L 13–20 at Marshall Week 8
- W 56–49 at Arkansas State Week 6
- W 52–35 vs. UL Monroe Week 5
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Troy and South Alabama?
Troy
- Will Crowder (QB), hasn't played since Week 8 (183 pass attempts in 7 games before that)
South Alabama
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
How did Louisiana do without D'Wayne' Winfield?
With Winfield, Louisiana went 5–3 and won by 5.3 a game. Without him, this game included, they went 1–0 and won by 21.0 a game.
Where the data comes from. Scores and who played each game from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 12, 2026.
Chart data
| Week | Opponent | Score | Margin | Winfield played? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | at USC | 30–49 | −19.0 | Yes |
| 3 | vs. UAB | 21–14 | +7.0 | Yes |
| 4 | at Charlotte | 34–7 | +27.0 | Yes |
| 5 | vs. Arkansas State | 23–20 | +3.0 | Yes |
| 6 | at Louisiana Tech | 31–32 | −1.0 | Yes |
| 7 | vs. Troy | 33–6 | +27.0 | Yes |
| 8 | at Southern Miss | 31–35 | −4.0 | Yes |
| 10 | vs. South Alabama | 28–26 | +2.0 | Yes |
| 11 | at UL Monroe | 42–21 | +21.0 | No |
How did UL Monroe do without Aidan Armenta?
With Armenta, UL Monroe went 2–5 and lost by 17.6 a game. Without him, this game included, they went 0–2 and lost by 13.5 a game. Yards per play: 5.4 with him, 4.3 without.
Where the data comes from. Scores and who played each game from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 12, 2026.
Chart data
| Week | Opponent | Score | Margin | Armenta played? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | at Mississippi State | 13–62 | −49.0 | Yes |
| 2 | at UAB | 20–26 | −6.0 | No |
| 4 | vs. Florida Atlantic | 17–45 | −28.0 | Yes |
| 5 | at South Alabama | 35–52 | −17.0 | Yes |
| 7 | vs. Louisiana Tech | 0–24 | −24.0 | Yes |
| 8 | at Troy | 21–14 | +7.0 | Yes |
| 9 | vs. Southern Miss | 21–35 | −14.0 | Yes |
| 10 | at Arkansas State | 19–17 | +2.0 | Yes |
| 11 | vs. Louisiana | 21–42 | −21.0 | No |
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Troy and South Alabama compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Troy and South Alabama are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Nov 12, 2026.
The players in charts
How Troy's and South Alabama's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Nov 12, 2026.
RatingsEven 5–5
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Troy and South Alabama?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Troy 0.2 points better (115th to 116th). PRIME has South Alabama by 0.3 instead. The two ratings split on South Alabama's offense: 75th in SP+, 52nd in PRIME. Elo, which only sees results, has South Alabama ahead (103rd to 106th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Where the data comes from: SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update), last pulled Nov 11, 2026; PRIME (primecfb.com), updated Nov 11, 2026; Elo from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 12, 2026.
Opponent-adjustedSouth Alabama 9–7
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Troy's offense ranks 124th in adjusted EPA per play, and the South Alabama defense it faces ranks 130th in EPA per play allowed. South Alabama's offense ranks 48th against Troy's 72nd-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge. The biggest edge on the board is Troy's big plays: 64th in adjusted explosiveness, against South Alabama's 133rd-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and Troy's defense falls from 42nd to 72nd in EPA per play allowed: a lot of that came against soft offenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 12, 2026.
EPAEven 4–4
Who's more efficient, Troy or South Alabama?
Troy is better running (86th in EPA per rush) than throwing (131st). South Alabama's run defense ranks 134th, so that's an edge. South Alabama is better running (31st in EPA per rush) than throwing (55th). Troy's run defense ranks 57th, so that's an edge.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 12, 2026.
ScoringEven 1–1
Who scores more, Troy or South Alabama?
Troy is outscored by 3.9 a game, and South Alabama by 0.2. Troy's offense ranks 105th in scoring, and the South Alabama defense it faces ranks 121st in points allowed. South Alabama's offense ranks 39th against Troy's 83rd-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is South Alabama's offense against Troy's defense.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026.
OffenseSouth Alabama 12–0
Which offense has the edge?
Troy's best matchup is their run game: their offense ranks 63rd in yards per carry, and South Alabama's defense ranks 135th in yards per carry allowed. That's a mismatch. South Alabama has no clear edge here. Their best is explosive play rate, 59th, against a defense ranked 69th in explosive plays allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026.
DefenseTroy 9–2
Which defense has the edge?
Troy's defense is best placed to get off the field on third down: it ranks 43rd in 3rd down conversions allowed, and South Alabama's offense is middle of the pack in 3rd down conversion rate (74th). South Alabama's defense is best placed to pick off passes: it ranks 41st in interception rate, and Troy's offense is middle of the pack at avoiding interceptions (70th).
What opponents managed against them.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026.
Up frontEven 6–6
Who wins up front?
They split these evenly, 6 each. The biggest gap is power success allowed, where South Alabama ranks 55th and Troy 116th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026.
TurnoversSouth Alabama 4–2
Who wins the turnover battle?
South Alabama is +0.6 in turnover margin a game and Troy is 0.0. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 3-point edge for South Alabama. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it. Fumble recoveries are mostly luck, and Troy's takeaways lean on them (0.9 of 1.7 a game).
Per game, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026.
TalentTroy 7–3
Which team has more talent?
Troy has the more talented roster (96th in the 247Sports talent composite; South Alabama is 107th). But South Alabama plays further above their talent: −7.2 points of SP+ beyond what their roster predicts, to Troy's −8.4.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Where the data comes from: 247Sports, preseason; 247Sports talent composite against SP+ (last pulled Nov 11, 2026); CollegeFootballData.com returning production, preseason; 247Sports recruiting rankings, via CollegeFootballData.com.
RECEIPTSEven 2–2
Where did each team's wins come from?
Troy is −0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (−1.3). South Alabama is −0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (−1.8).
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Where the data comes from: our split of every game result, games through Nov 12, 2026, using SP+ (last pulled Nov 11, 2026), the 247Sports talent composite and CollegeFootballData.com returning production.
The trip
How far is Troy traveling?
It's Troy's 5th road trip of the season. Counting this one, they'll have traveled 6,654 miles, there and back, 46th of 138 in FBS.
The transitive property
The shortest chain of real results this season that “proves” each team wins.
Troy wins
24–21Week 9
45–17Week 5
20–13Week 8Troy beat James Madison 24–21 in Week 9. James Madison beat Marshall 45–17 in Week 5. Marshall beat South Alabama 20–13 in Week 8.South Alabama wins
52–35Week 5
21–14Week 8South Alabama beat UL Monroe 52–35 in Week 5. UL Monroe beat Troy 21–14 in Week 8.Each arrow in a chain is a win, with the score and the week. At a neutral site, both teams travel.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com schedules and results, games through Nov 12, 2026. Miles as the crow flies, campus to stadium.
FAQ
Troy at South Alabama: questions people ask
Troy vs. South Alabama prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick South Alabama, 59% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. South Alabama's best matchup is their run game, 22nd in EPA per rush, against Troy's run defense at 66th.
Where can I watch Troy vs. South Alabama, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 14, 7:00 PM ET at Hancock Whitney Stadium. It's on ESPN+.
What's the projected score of Troy vs. South Alabama?
SP+ projects South Alabama 30–27. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for Troy at South Alabama?
DraftKings has South Alabama −3, total 55.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the Troy vs. South Alabama series history?
Troy leads 10–4. Last meeting: Troy won 31–24 in 2025.
Who are the players to watch in Troy vs. South Alabama?
Troy: Will Crowder (1,162 passing yards), Gavin Griffin (465 rushing yards) and TK Keyes (319 receiving yards). South Alabama: Jared Hollins (1,195 passing yards), Keenan Phillips (595 rushing yards) and Brendan Jenkins (552 receiving yards). Season totals through Nov 12, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Troy at South Alabama?
Troy's is Will Crowder (1,162 passing yards this season); South Alabama's is Jared Hollins (1,195 passing yards this season).
Who's out for Troy at South Alabama?
Troy: Will Crowder (QB) hasn't played since Week 8.
Keep going
- Troy: every stat, rank and the schedule
- South Alabama: every stat, rank and the schedule
- James Madison at UConn: the numbers' pick
- Arkansas State at Coastal Carolina: the numbers' pick
- Georgia Southern at Georgia State: the numbers' pick
- Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 11 pick
- The Sun Belt: standings, stats and rankings
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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Numbers through the games of Nov 12, 2026. SP+ as of Nov 11, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Recent form
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.