USC vs. Indiana Prediction and Pick, Week 11 2026
71% chance to win
- Indiana should stop the run. Indiana is top-10 (5th) in yards per carry allowed, and USC is bottom-40 (115th) in yards per carry.
Updated
USC at Indiana
Projected score: USC 20, Indiana 33 (total 53).SP+: Indiana by 12.5, 81% chance to win.PRIME: Indiana by 2.1.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 14, 3:30 PM ET
- TV
- CBS
- Where
- Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
- Line
- Indiana −7.5, total 49.5
- Line movement
- Opened Indiana −10; moved 2.5 points toward USC. Total opened 58.5, down 9.
- Series
- USC leads 4–0
- Last meeting
- USC 28–7 in 1982
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Indiana by 12.5 | 81% | 53 |
| PRIME | Indiana by 2.1 | 56% | |
| Elo | Indiana | 85% | |
| The line | Indiana −7.5, opened −10 | 49.5, opened 58.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Mon, Nov 9, 7:09 AM ET.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, USC or Indiana?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
What do the sportsbooks say?
| Sportsbook | USC spread | Indiana spread | Over | Under | USC moneyline | Indiana moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +7.5 −115 | −7.5 −105 | 49.5 −115 | 49.5 −105 | +240 (best price) | −298 |
| FanDuel | +7.5 −124 | −7.5 +102 (best price) | 49.5 −110 | 49.5 −110 | +215 | −265 (best price) |
| BetMGM | +7.5 −112 (best price) | −7.5 −105 | 49.5 −112 | 49.5 −105 | +230 | −285 |
| Caesars | +7.5 −117 | −7.5 −104 | 49.5 −112 | 49.5 −112 | +230 | −280 |
| ESPN BET | +7.5 −115 | −7.5 −105 | 50.5 −110 | 50.5 −110 (best price) | +230 | −280 |
| BetRivers | +7.5 −117 | −7.5 −107 | 49.5 +100 (best price) | 49.5 −122 | +220 | −286 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +7.5 −115 | −7.5 −105 | 49.5 +100 (best price) | 49.5 −120 | +220 | −275 |
| Fanatics | +7.5 −115 | −7.5 −105 | 49.5 −110 | 49.5 −110 | +240 (best price) | −300 |
Odds updated Mon., Nov. 9, 7:09 AM ET. The best price on each bet is marked. Prices move fast, so check the book before you bet. Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide USC vs. Indiana?
All three ratings favor Indiana, by 2.1 points. Indiana's best matchup is their run defense, 5th in yards per carry allowed, against USC's run game at 115th. USC doesn't have a unit with a clear edge over the one it faces.
USC with the ball
Indiana with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026; CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Recent form
How have USC and Indiana played lately?
USC
3–2 in the last five.
- W 30–18 vs. Ohio State Week 9
- L 7–24 at Wisconsin Week 8
- W 31–23 at Penn State Week 6
- W 25–21 vs. Washington Week 5
- L 27–41 vs. Oregon Week 4
Indiana
4–1 in the last five. Won 2 straight.
- W 23–16 vs. Minnesota Week 9
- W 13–6 at Michigan Week 8
- L 15–19 vs. Ohio State Week 7
- W 20–17 at Nebraska Week 6
- W 47–15 at Rutgers Week 5
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for USC and Indiana?
USC
- Terrell Anderson (#9), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Corey Simms (WR), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Kendarius Reddick (#23), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Taylor "Taybo" Johnson (#50), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Roman Marchetti (#57), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Kilian O'Connor (#67), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Hayden Treter (#68), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Jahkeem Stewart (DT), last game: game time decision (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Mark Bowman (TE), last game: game time decision (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Shahn Alston (RB), last game: game time decision (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Jamaal Jarrett (#99), last game: game time decision (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
Indiana
- Davion Chandler (WR), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Kellan Wyatt (#18), last game: out (Big Ten availability report, game day, Oct 31)
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How USC and Indiana compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; USC and Indiana are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
The players in charts
How USC's and Indiana's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
RatingsIndiana 6–4
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate USC and Indiana?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Indiana 10.0 points better (6th to 18th). PRIME has USC by 0.4 instead. The two ratings split on Indiana's offense: 15th in SP+, 43rd in PRIME. Elo, which only sees results, also has Indiana ahead (3rd to 19th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Where the data comes from: SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update), last pulled Nov 2, 2026; PRIME (primecfb.com), updated Nov 9, 2026; Elo from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Opponent-adjustedIndiana 10–6
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
USC's offense ranks 6th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Indiana defense it faces ranks 11th in EPA per play allowed. Indiana's offense ranks 15th against USC's 79th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Indiana's offense against USC's defense. The biggest edge on the board is Indiana's passing game: 11th in adjusted EPA per pass, against USC's 106th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
EPAIndiana 6–2
Who's more efficient, USC or Indiana?
USC is better throwing (12th in EPA per pass) than running (85th). Indiana's pass defense ranks 16th, so that's strength on strength. Indiana is better throwing (7th in EPA per pass) than running (72nd). USC's pass defense ranks 120th, so that's a mismatch.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
ScoringIndiana 1–0
Who scores more, USC or Indiana?
USC outscores FBS opponents by 8.2 a game, and Indiana by 20.0. USC's offense ranks 39th in scoring, and the Indiana defense it faces ranks 4th in points allowed. Indiana's offense ranks 39th against USC's 66th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Indiana's offense against USC's defense.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
OffenseEven 6–6
Which offense has the edge?
USC has no clear edge here. Their best is 3rd down conversion rate, 15th, against a defense ranked 19th in 3rd down conversions allowed. Indiana's best matchup is big plays: their offense ranks 7th in explosive play rate, and USC's defense ranks 88th in explosive plays allowed. That's a mismatch.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
DefenseIndiana 11–0
Which defense has the edge?
Indiana's defense is best placed to stop the run: it ranks 5th in yards per carry allowed, and USC's offense is bottom-40 in yards per carry (115th). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
Up frontIndiana 10–2
Who wins up front?
Indiana has the better number in 10 of 12. The biggest gap is open-field yards per carry, where Indiana ranks 23rd and USC 126th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TurnoversIndiana 5–2
Who wins the turnover battle?
Indiana is +0.3 in turnover margin a game and USC is −0.2. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 3-point edge for Indiana. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.
Per game, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TalentUSC 10–1
Which team has more talent?
USC has the more talented roster (9th in the 247Sports talent composite; Indiana is 37th). But Indiana plays further above their talent: +19.6 points of SP+ beyond what their roster predicts, to USC's −0.6.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Where the data comes from: 247Sports, preseason; 247Sports talent composite against SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026); CollegeFootballData.com returning production, preseason; 247Sports recruiting rankings, via CollegeFootballData.com.
MoneyIndiana 3–0
Which roster costs more?
USC's roster is valued at $34.7M, Indiana's at $32.4M. Dollar for dollar, Indiana plays better: +8.5 points of SP+ above what their payroll predicts, to −3.0 for USC.
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
Where the data comes from: The NIL Standard, preseason estimates; The NIL Standard's preseason roster values against this season's results.
RECEIPTSIndiana 3–2
Where did each team's wins come from?
USC is +2.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is roster (+2.1). Indiana is +3.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (+3.1). USC's record is running 0.9 wins ahead of their play on luck alone, so they're not as good as the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Where the data comes from: our split of every game result, games through Nov 7, 2026, using SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026), the 247Sports talent composite and CollegeFootballData.com returning production.
The trip
How far is USC traveling?
It's USC's 4th road trip of the season. Counting this one, they'll have traveled 16,264 miles, there and back, 3rd of 138 in FBS.
The transitive property
The shortest chain of real results this season that “proves” each team wins.
USC wins
30–18Week 9
19–15Week 7
USC beat Ohio State 30–18 in Week 9. Ohio State beat Indiana 19–15 in Week 7.Indiana wins
23–16Week 9
13–10Week 8
30–0Week 9
24–7Week 8Indiana beat Minnesota 23–16 in Week 9. Minnesota beat Iowa 13–10 in Week 8. Iowa beat Wisconsin 30–0 in Week 9. Wisconsin beat USC 24–7 in Week 8.Each arrow in a chain is a win, with the score and the week. At a neutral site, both teams travel.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com schedules and results, games through Nov 7, 2026. Miles as the crow flies, campus to stadium.
FAQ
USC at Indiana: questions people ask
USC vs. Indiana prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Indiana, 71% chance to win. SP+ and PRIME favor the same team. Indiana's best matchup is their run defense, 5th in yards per carry allowed, against USC's run game at 115th.
Where can I watch USC vs. Indiana, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 14, 3:30 PM ET at Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN). It's on CBS.
What's the projected score of USC vs. Indiana?
SP+ projects Indiana 33–20. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for USC at Indiana?
DraftKings has Indiana −7.5, total 49.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the USC vs. Indiana series history?
USC leads 4–0. Last meeting: USC won 28–7 in 1982.
Who are the players to watch in USC vs. Indiana?
USC: Jayden Maiava (2,525 passing yards), King Miller (681 rushing yards) and Trent Mosley (512 receiving yards). Indiana: Josh Hoover (1,860 passing yards), Turbo Richard (745 rushing yards) and Charlie Becker (875 receiving yards). Season totals through Nov 7, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in USC at Indiana?
USC's is Jayden Maiava (2,525 passing yards this season); Indiana's is Josh Hoover (1,860 passing yards this season).
Keep going
- USC: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Indiana: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Illinois at UCLA: the numbers' pick
- Wisconsin at Maryland: the numbers' pick
- Northwestern at Ohio State: the numbers' pick
- Nebraska at Rutgers: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 11 pick
- The Big Ten: standings, stats and rankings
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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Numbers through the games of Nov 7, 2026. SP+ as of Nov 2, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Recent form
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.