Washington vs. Michigan State Prediction, Week 11 2026
64% chance to win
- Washington's scoring defense has the edge on Michigan State's scoring offense. Washington is above average (45th) in points allowed, and Michigan State is bottom-20 (127th) in points per game.
Updated
Washington at Michigan State
Projected score: Washington 26, Michigan State 17 (total 43).SP+: Washington by 8.8, 74% chance to win.PRIME: Michigan State by 1.7, the other side.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 14, 4:15 PM ET
- TV
- BTN
- Where
- Spartan Stadium
- Weather
- 44°, cloudy, wind 13 mph
- Line
- Washington −3.5, total 44.5
- Line movement
- Total opened 45.5, down 1.
- Series
- Washington leads 4–1
- Last meeting
- Washington 41–7 in 2023
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Washington by 8.8 | 74% | 43 |
| PRIME | Michigan State by 1.7 | 55% | |
| Elo | Washington | 74% | |
| The line | Washington −3.5 | 44.5, opened 45.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Thu, Nov 12, 10:24 PM ET.
Projected vs. what happened
What we projected for Louisiana vs. UL Monroe, and what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Washington or Michigan State?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
What do the sportsbooks say?
| Sportsbook | Washington spread | Michigan State spread | Over | Under | Washington moneyline | Michigan State moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | −3.5 −105 (best price) | +3.5 −115 | 44.5 −102 | 44.5 −118 (best price) | −170 | +142 (best price) |
| FanDuel | −3.5 −105 (best price) | +3.5 −115 | 43.5 −110 | 43.5 −110 | −160 | +132 |
| BetMGM | −3.5 −105 (best price) | +3.5 −115 | 44.5 −102 | 44.5 −118 (best price) | −165 | +138 |
| Caesars | −3.5 −106 | +3.5 −114 | 44.5 −103 | 44.5 −118 (best price) | −170 | +142 (best price) |
| ESPN BET | −3.5 −105 (best price) | +3.5 −115 | 44.5 +100 | 44.5 −120 | −155 (best price) | +135 |
| BetRivers | −3.5 −113 | +3.5 −110 (best price) | 43.5 −105 | 43.5 −120 | −167 | +135 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −3.5 −110 | +3.5 −110 (best price) | 42.5 −120 (best price) | 42.5 +100 | −165 | +135 |
| Fanatics | −3.5 −105 (best price) | +3.5 −115 | 44 −110 | 44 −110 | −170 | +140 |
Odds updated Thu., Nov. 12, 10:24 PM ET. The best price on each bet is marked. Prices move fast, so check the book before you bet. Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Washington vs. Michigan State?
SP+ and Elo take Washington, but PRIME has Michigan State by 1.7. Washington's best matchup is their scoring defense, 45th in points allowed, against Michigan State's scoring offense at 127th. Michigan State's way back in is their run defense, 48th in EPA per rush allowed, against Washington's run game at 113th. We left out the edges built on Devin Vaught, Marvis Parrish and Rodney Bullard Jr., who are out.
Washington with the ball
Michigan State with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026; CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 12, 2026.
Recent form
How have Washington and Michigan State played lately?
Washington
2–3 in the last five.
- L 25–28 vs. Penn State Week 10
- W 17–10 at Nebraska Week 9
- W 38–26 at Purdue Week 7
- L 24–41 vs. Iowa Week 6
- L 21–25 at USC Week 5
Michigan State
1–4 in the last five.
- W 15–6 at Michigan Week 10
- L 10–28 at UCLA Week 8
- L 21–24 vs. Northwestern Week 7
- L 37–38 vs. Illinois Week 6
- L 3–31 at Wisconsin Week 5
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Washington and Michigan State?
Washington
- Jordan Washington (#4), out (Big Ten availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Christian Moss (#5), out (Big Ten availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Quaid Carr (#21), out (Big Ten availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Landen Hatchett (#66), out (Big Ten availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- CJ Christian, out (Big Ten availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Trey Cooley (#22), doubtful (Big Ten availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Demond Williams Jr. (QB), questionable (Big Ten availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Alex McLaughlin (S), questionable (Big Ten availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Logan George (#12), questionable (Big Ten availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Devin Hyde (#52), questionable (Big Ten availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Elinneus Davis (#90), questionable (Big Ten availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Isaiah Ward (EDGE), questionable (Big Ten availability report, initial, Nov 14)
Michigan State
- Cam Edwards (#0), out (Big Ten availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Vaught (S), out (Big Ten availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Bullard (WR), out (Big Ten availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Jordan Hall (#5), out (Big Ten availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Parrish (RB), out (Big Ten availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Brayden Thomas (#28), out (Big Ten availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Jayden Savoury (TE), out (Big Ten availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Jay Coyne (#44), out (Big Ten availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Tristan Comer (#79), out (Big Ten availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Joe Caudill (#87), out (Big Ten availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Jaziun Patterson (RB), doubtful (Big Ten availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Cam Fancher (#2), questionable (Big Ten availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Tre Bell (CB), questionable (Big Ten availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Charles Brantley (CB), questionable (Big Ten availability report, initial, Nov 14)
- Ben Roberts (DL), questionable (Big Ten availability report, initial, Nov 14)
How did Louisiana do without D'Wayne' Winfield?
With Winfield, Louisiana went 5–3 and won by 5.3 a game. Without him, this game included, they went 1–0 and won by 21.0 a game.
Where the data comes from. Scores and who played each game from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 12, 2026.
Chart data
| Week | Opponent | Score | Margin | Winfield played? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | at USC | 30–49 | −19.0 | Yes |
| 3 | vs. UAB | 21–14 | +7.0 | Yes |
| 4 | at Charlotte | 34–7 | +27.0 | Yes |
| 5 | vs. Arkansas State | 23–20 | +3.0 | Yes |
| 6 | at Louisiana Tech | 31–32 | −1.0 | Yes |
| 7 | vs. Troy | 33–6 | +27.0 | Yes |
| 8 | at Southern Miss | 31–35 | −4.0 | Yes |
| 10 | vs. South Alabama | 28–26 | +2.0 | Yes |
| 11 | at UL Monroe | 42–21 | +21.0 | No |
How did UL Monroe do without Aidan Armenta?
With Armenta, UL Monroe went 2–5 and lost by 17.6 a game. Without him, this game included, they went 0–2 and lost by 13.5 a game. Yards per play: 5.4 with him, 4.3 without.
Where the data comes from. Scores and who played each game from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 12, 2026.
Chart data
| Week | Opponent | Score | Margin | Armenta played? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | at Mississippi State | 13–62 | −49.0 | Yes |
| 2 | at UAB | 20–26 | −6.0 | No |
| 4 | vs. Florida Atlantic | 17–45 | −28.0 | Yes |
| 5 | at South Alabama | 35–52 | −17.0 | Yes |
| 7 | vs. Louisiana Tech | 0–24 | −24.0 | Yes |
| 8 | at Troy | 21–14 | +7.0 | Yes |
| 9 | vs. Southern Miss | 21–35 | −14.0 | Yes |
| 10 | at Arkansas State | 19–17 | +2.0 | Yes |
| 11 | vs. Louisiana | 21–42 | −21.0 | No |
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Washington and Michigan State compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Washington and Michigan State are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Nov 12, 2026.
The players in charts
How Washington's and Michigan State's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Nov 12, 2026.
RatingsWashington 8–2
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Washington and Michigan State?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Washington 11.3 points better (40th to 83rd). PRIME also has Washington ahead, by 0.8. Elo, which only sees results, also has Washington ahead (28th to 69th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Where the data comes from: SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update), last pulled Nov 11, 2026; PRIME (primecfb.com), updated Nov 11, 2026; Elo from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 12, 2026.
Opponent-adjustedWashington 9–7
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Washington's offense ranks 68th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Michigan State defense it faces ranks 62nd in EPA per play allowed. Michigan State's offense ranks 107th against Washington's 41st-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge. Adjust for opponents and Michigan State's defense climbs from 91st to 62nd in EPA per play allowed: it has done its work against good offenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 12, 2026.
EPAWashington 8–0
Who's more efficient, Washington or Michigan State?
Washington is better throwing (50th in EPA per pass) than running (111th). Michigan State's pass defense ranks 72nd. Michigan State is about as good throwing (123rd in EPA per pass) as running (128th).
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 12, 2026.
ScoringWashington 2–0
Who scores more, Washington or Michigan State?
Washington outscores FBS opponents by 4.4 a game, and Michigan State is outscored by 4.3. Washington's offense ranks 83rd in scoring, and the Michigan State defense it faces ranks 61st in points allowed. Michigan State's offense ranks 127th against Washington's 45th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026.
OffenseWashington 10–2
Which offense has the edge?
Washington has no clear edge here. Their best is success rate, 87th, against a defense ranked 88th in success rate allowed. Michigan State has no clear edge here. Their best is 3rd down conversion rate, 82nd, against a defense ranked 41st in 3rd down conversions allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026.
DefenseWashington 7–4
Which defense has the edge?
Washington's defense is best placed to limit big plays: it ranks 39th in explosive plays allowed, and Michigan State's offense is bottom-20 in explosive play rate (136th). That's a mismatch. Michigan State's defense is best placed to get home: it ranks 57th in sack rate, and Washington's offense is bottom-40 at avoiding sacks (105th).
What opponents managed against them.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026.
Up frontWashington 10–2
Who wins up front?
Washington has the better number in 10 of 12. The biggest gap is open-field yards per carry, where Washington ranks 36th and Michigan State 138th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026.
TurnoversWashington 5–2
Who wins the turnover battle?
Washington is +0.4 in turnover margin a game and Michigan State is −0.2. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 3-point edge for Washington. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.
Per game, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 12, 2026.
TalentWashington 11–0
Which team has more talent?
Washington has the more talented roster (24th in the 247Sports talent composite; Michigan State is 61st). Washington also plays further above their talent: +1.7 points of SP+ beyond what their roster predicts, to Michigan State's −4.0.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Where the data comes from: 247Sports, preseason; 247Sports talent composite against SP+ (last pulled Nov 11, 2026); CollegeFootballData.com returning production, preseason; 247Sports recruiting rankings, via CollegeFootballData.com.
MoneyWashington 3–0
Which roster costs more?
Michigan State's roster is valued at $24.6M, Washington's at $22.4M. Dollar for dollar, Washington plays better: +1.5 points of SP+ above what their payroll predicts, to −11.8 for Michigan State.
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
Where the data comes from: The NIL Standard, preseason estimates; The NIL Standard's preseason roster values against this season's results.
RECEIPTSWashington 4–1
Where did each team's wins come from?
Washington is +0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is roster (+0.9). Michigan State is −1.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (−1.7).
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Where the data comes from: our split of every game result, games through Nov 12, 2026, using SP+ (last pulled Nov 11, 2026), the 247Sports talent composite and CollegeFootballData.com returning production.
The trip
How far is Washington traveling?
It's Washington's 4th road trip of the season. Counting this one, they'll have traveled 11,945 miles, there and back, 12th of 138 in FBS.
The transitive property
The shortest chain of real results this season that “proves” each team wins.
Washington wins
17–10Week 9
31–13Week 4
Washington beat Nebraska 17–10 in Week 9. Nebraska beat Michigan State 31–13 in Week 4.Michigan State wins
15–6Week 10
21–18Week 7
28–25Week 10Michigan State beat Michigan 15–6 in Week 10. Michigan beat Penn State 21–18 in Week 7. Penn State beat Washington 28–25 in Week 10.Each arrow in a chain is a win, with the score and the week. At a neutral site, both teams travel.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com schedules and results, games through Nov 12, 2026. Miles as the crow flies, campus to stadium.
FAQ
Washington at Michigan State: questions people ask
Washington vs. Michigan State prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Washington, 64% chance to win. SP+ and Elo agree; PRIME has Michigan State. Washington's best matchup is their scoring defense, 45th in points allowed, against Michigan State's scoring offense at 127th.
Where can I watch Washington vs. Michigan State, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 14, 4:15 PM ET at Spartan Stadium. It's on BTN.
What's the projected score of Washington vs. Michigan State?
SP+ projects Washington 26–17. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for Washington at Michigan State?
DraftKings has Washington −3.5, total 44.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the Washington vs. Michigan State series history?
Washington leads 4–1. Last meeting: Washington won 41–7 in 2023.
Who are the players to watch in Washington vs. Michigan State?
Washington: Demond Williams Jr. (1,667 passing yards), Brian Bonner Jr. (318 rushing yards) and Chris Lawson (727 receiving yards). Michigan State: Alessio Milivojevic (1,451 passing yards), Jaziun Patterson (327 rushing yards) and Chrishon Mccray (381 receiving yards). Season totals through Nov 12, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Washington at Michigan State?
Washington's is Demond Williams Jr. (1,667 passing yards this season); Michigan State's is Alessio Milivojevic (1,451 passing yards this season).
Keep going
- Washington: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Michigan State: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Illinois at UCLA: the numbers' pick
- Wisconsin at Maryland: the numbers' pick
- Northwestern at Ohio State: the numbers' pick
- Nebraska at Rutgers: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 11 pick
- The Big Ten: standings, stats and rankings
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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Numbers through the games of Nov 12, 2026. SP+ as of Nov 11, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Recent form
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.